WEBVTT

1
00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.560
What does the United States think it's going to gain from

2
00:00:02.560 --> 00:00:04.480
decapitating the Iranian leadership?

3
00:00:04.480 --> 00:00:06.960
Well, that's kind of obvious based on what the president has said.

4
00:00:06.960 --> 00:00:07.760
It's that he needs to eat.

5
00:00:07.760 --> 00:00:08.960
On what the president has said?

6
00:00:08.960 --> 00:00:10.560
I'm just saying based on what the president says.

7
00:00:10.560 --> 00:00:12.400
You can't trust anything that you're hearing right now.

8
00:00:12.400 --> 00:00:14.240
You can't trust anything that you're reading right now.

9
00:00:14.240 --> 00:00:14.880
Okay, two to multiple.

10
00:00:14.880 --> 00:00:16.880
Well, that's, I mean, that's partly right.

11
00:00:16.880 --> 00:00:17.840
It's not paranoid.

12
00:00:17.840 --> 00:00:21.280
That is absolutely, it is absolutely paranoid to suggest that

13
00:00:21.280 --> 00:00:23.440
everything is misinformation.

14
00:00:23.440 --> 00:00:27.360
Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon, so it's not a nuclear threat.

15
00:00:27.360 --> 00:00:29.280
You speak a different nuclear language than I do.

16
00:00:29.360 --> 00:00:31.600
This regime is at its lowest, lowest point.

17
00:00:31.600 --> 00:00:32.720
Why not strike it now?

18
00:00:32.720 --> 00:00:34.720
I mean, I can give lots of reasons why you wouldn't strike it.

19
00:00:34.720 --> 00:00:39.760
But what are you concerned about and what are the unintended consequences

20
00:00:39.760 --> 00:00:40.640
that you're foreseeing?

21
00:00:40.640 --> 00:00:44.960
There is a domino effect that happens with every decision that the United States makes.

22
00:00:44.960 --> 00:00:50.240
So guys, I've got a favor to ask before this episode begins.

23
00:00:50.240 --> 00:00:54.080
69% of you that listen to the show frequently haven't yet hit the follow button.

24
00:00:54.080 --> 00:00:57.040
And that follow button is very smart because it means you won't miss the

25
00:00:57.040 --> 00:00:58.080
best episodes.

26
00:00:58.080 --> 00:01:02.800
The algorithm, if you follow a show, will deliver you the best episodes from that show

27
00:01:02.800 --> 00:01:04.320
very prominently in your feed.

28
00:01:04.320 --> 00:01:07.280
So when we have our best episodes on this show, the most shared episodes,

29
00:01:07.280 --> 00:01:09.680
the most rated episodes, I would love you to know.

30
00:01:09.680 --> 00:01:12.720
And the simple way for you to know that is to hit that follow button.

31
00:01:12.720 --> 00:01:18.080
But also the fact that I think what, 41% of you have chosen to follow this show

32
00:01:18.080 --> 00:01:21.360
that listen to it regularly is the reason why we've been able to improve everything.

33
00:01:21.360 --> 00:01:25.120
It's the simple, easy, free thing that you can do to help us make this show better.

34
00:01:25.120 --> 00:01:28.480
I would be hugely grateful if you could take a minute on the app you're listening

35
00:01:28.480 --> 00:01:30.480
to the song right now and hit that follow button.

36
00:01:30.480 --> 00:01:33.200
Thank you so, so, so much.

37
00:01:37.840 --> 00:01:40.080
Benjamin, Annie, Andrew.

38
00:01:40.080 --> 00:01:42.400
First and foremost, thank you for being here today.

39
00:01:42.400 --> 00:01:45.120
I have to start with the question that's been on my mind.

40
00:01:45.120 --> 00:01:48.000
As somebody that doesn't know a huge amount about geopolitics, which is

41
00:01:49.120 --> 00:01:50.000
what the hell is going on?

42
00:01:50.720 --> 00:01:53.280
And I say that because that's exactly what I mean.

43
00:01:53.280 --> 00:01:56.480
What is going on? And what context do I need to understand

44
00:01:56.480 --> 00:02:00.960
this sort of historical context of the actions we're seeing in Iran

45
00:02:00.960 --> 00:02:06.480
with this wall right now? Benjamin, I know you've got a personal connection to Iran

46
00:02:06.480 --> 00:02:08.160
because your family fled Iran, I believe.

47
00:02:08.160 --> 00:02:11.760
Yeah, I was two years old when we left in March of 1979.

48
00:02:13.120 --> 00:02:17.200
A few months after the Shah had left and just after Khomeini had arrived.

49
00:02:17.200 --> 00:02:19.920
What is the Shah and what is Khomeini?

50
00:02:19.920 --> 00:02:23.760
Yeah, sorry. The Shah, the former monarch of Iran,

51
00:02:23.760 --> 00:02:26.880
the path of the dynasty, which came into power in the 1930s,

52
00:02:26.880 --> 00:02:30.080
deposing a previous dynasty that had been around for a couple of hundred years.

53
00:02:30.640 --> 00:02:36.240
And his father brought in that dynasty and then it was eventually, he was

54
00:02:36.240 --> 00:02:40.480
deposed by the British and the Americans who felt he was getting too close to the Nazis

55
00:02:40.480 --> 00:02:46.000
during World War II, concerned about supply routes for the Nazis, oil and his son was installed

56
00:02:46.000 --> 00:02:48.880
on the throne at a very young age, I believe, 18 or 19.

57
00:02:48.880 --> 00:02:55.360
And he ruled Iran from that period, 1941, 1942,

58
00:02:55.360 --> 00:03:00.320
and that time all the way through 79, a great ally of the United States over time eventually.

59
00:03:01.120 --> 00:03:04.240
And it was deposed, was overthrown on a revolution.

60
00:03:04.240 --> 00:03:10.160
And by Khomeini who is a senior cleric who had been a thorn in the Shah's side since the 60s

61
00:03:10.160 --> 00:03:16.960
was exiled first to Turkey, then Iraq, then ultimately to France, right outside Paris actually.

62
00:03:16.960 --> 00:03:21.120
From there, he basically led the revolution that led to the Shah's removal,

63
00:03:21.680 --> 00:03:23.120
Austria in 79.

64
00:03:23.120 --> 00:03:27.200
And how was Iran different when the Shah was in power versus when Khomeini was in power?

65
00:03:27.200 --> 00:03:30.560
That depends on who you ask. It was a constitutional monarchy.

66
00:03:30.560 --> 00:03:35.680
The Shah had powers that exceeded beyond what we think a constitutional monarchy has today,

67
00:03:35.680 --> 00:03:41.280
like in Great Britain. He ruled with an iron fist when he needed to, he was an authoritarian,

68
00:03:41.280 --> 00:03:45.600
but he also was one that was rapidly modernizing Iranian society,

69
00:03:45.600 --> 00:03:49.680
wanted to make it more like the West, using Iran's immense oil resources and wealth to really

70
00:03:49.680 --> 00:03:56.000
accelerate development, building of social institutions, healthcare, literacy, modernization,

71
00:03:56.000 --> 00:03:58.640
all of those things. That was his focus, make you run more like the West.

72
00:03:59.200 --> 00:04:04.720
And in that sense, he succeeded, but it came at the expense oftentimes of civil liberties

73
00:04:04.720 --> 00:04:10.080
for many people. It came at the expense of freedom for those who wanted to essentially practice

74
00:04:10.080 --> 00:04:16.560
religion, Islam, Islam in their own way. The Shah was not hostile to religion, but he, his policies

75
00:04:16.560 --> 00:04:21.680
were inconsistent with where the traditional religious Iranians wanted to go. And it sort of created

76
00:04:21.680 --> 00:04:28.160
a schism in society. And you also had a wealth gap, an income disparity, immense wealth poured

77
00:04:28.160 --> 00:04:32.560
into the country, but it didn't trickle its way downward into the sort of the village in rural

78
00:04:32.560 --> 00:04:37.680
poor. And so there's a lot of frustration, a lot of disenchantment with his policies. And that

79
00:04:37.680 --> 00:04:43.680
led to sort of this populist backlash of wanting something that was more democratic, more accountable,

80
00:04:44.480 --> 00:04:50.160
more like the West, ironically. And that sort of was the beginning of where that cycle led.

81
00:04:50.880 --> 00:04:54.640
And so how did Hamani take power of Iran?

82
00:04:54.640 --> 00:05:00.080
He led a movement, a mass populist movement, not a religious one, but it meant to

83
00:05:00.560 --> 00:05:08.080
go across multiple socio-economic and political divides and unified the opposition under this idea

84
00:05:08.080 --> 00:05:13.360
of removing the monarchy, removing dependence on the West. He specifically said the United States

85
00:05:13.360 --> 00:05:18.560
was a large part to blame for Iran being in the state that it was for people not having the

86
00:05:19.360 --> 00:05:23.200
the things they needed to live, the freedoms, the liberties. He blamed the Shah's

87
00:05:23.680 --> 00:05:29.360
use of the secret police and torture methods on the United States and on Israel who he claimed,

88
00:05:29.680 --> 00:05:34.480
taught the secret police how to do these things. There's a complicated sort of history to that.

89
00:05:34.480 --> 00:05:41.360
And he basically promised them salvation from what he portrayed as a puppet tyrant of the United

90
00:05:41.360 --> 00:05:48.000
States. And the masses bought into this, both the left and the right. The right consisted of the

91
00:05:48.000 --> 00:05:53.600
black, the Islamists. So you had the red, which were sort of the Marxist socialist followers. You

92
00:05:53.680 --> 00:05:58.560
had the black and then you had sort of that middle in between and they all coalesced around this

93
00:05:58.560 --> 00:06:05.520
one charismatic religious figure, a very austere man, one who didn't really have a lot of luxuries

94
00:06:05.520 --> 00:06:12.800
himself, let a simple life but was consistent with his opposition to what he saw tyranny and despotism.

95
00:06:12.800 --> 00:06:19.520
And people bought into it. And the Americans didn't like this. The Americans didn't know what to

96
00:06:19.520 --> 00:06:23.520
make of it. And there was a failure. And I think Andrew can talk about this as well over a failure

97
00:06:23.520 --> 00:06:27.360
by the State Department and the CIA in the 70s to see where the threat was. They saw the threat

98
00:06:27.360 --> 00:06:32.000
coming from the Soviet Union. They were still afraid of Soviet encroachment in the Middle East,

99
00:06:32.000 --> 00:06:35.840
particularly through Iran. Their concerns were with the Marxists, the communist parties.

100
00:06:36.480 --> 00:06:40.160
They did not carefully look at the black. They didn't look at the Islamists. They didn't see

101
00:06:40.160 --> 00:06:46.560
them as a threat until it was too late. The Shah himself blocked or really didn't give the CIA full

102
00:06:46.560 --> 00:06:52.000
access to Iran. There was limited information that was coming out. He relied on his own

103
00:06:52.000 --> 00:06:56.560
intelligence, which fed him information he wanted to hear, which is that everything is going great.

104
00:06:56.560 --> 00:07:02.320
The country is doing well. The people love you. They're all happy until the discontent and the

105
00:07:02.320 --> 00:07:05.840
protests became, they reached a threshold and it was too late to do anything about it.

106
00:07:07.040 --> 00:07:11.760
The United States was kind of at their peak period of meddling in foreign governments at the time.

107
00:07:12.480 --> 00:07:17.600
Kind of in a strange way that we've come full circle of this idea of controlling

108
00:07:17.600 --> 00:07:21.360
an entire country by controlling the figurehead of the country. That's where we were in the

109
00:07:22.240 --> 00:07:28.160
late 70s at the kind of brink of the Cold War. Nobody knew that the Berlin law was going to fall.

110
00:07:28.160 --> 00:07:32.720
We were all concerned with the spread of communism. Nobody was paying attention to the Islamist threat.

111
00:07:32.720 --> 00:07:37.600
Nobody was paying attention to really any other kind of threat at all. It was very much the

112
00:07:38.560 --> 00:07:45.280
unfettered uncontrolled, unsupervised CIA running around with no oversight and with very deep

113
00:07:45.280 --> 00:07:51.840
pockets. I'm not changed at some point. That changed in 2001 when Al Qaeda successfully carried out

114
00:07:51.840 --> 00:07:55.840
the 9-11 attacks in New York and all of a sudden the threat that we had all been ignoring

115
00:07:56.560 --> 00:08:02.400
was on our doorstep and had grown so wealthy and had spread so vast across the world that

116
00:08:02.400 --> 00:08:08.400
Islamic extremism became almost overnight a household term. Now there's still a difference between

117
00:08:09.040 --> 00:08:17.040
Al Qaeda, Islamic Shia extremism and what is practiced in the Shia faith and with the outcomes

118
00:08:17.040 --> 00:08:24.000
that the Shia militants are trying to pursue in support of Iran. But it's hard to differentiate

119
00:08:24.000 --> 00:08:26.880
that in the United States where we don't understand the difference between Sunni and Shia.

120
00:08:27.520 --> 00:08:29.680
And what do you think this war is really about?

121
00:08:31.520 --> 00:08:37.120
Very interesting what you both said and I think what I would add to that which very much speaks

122
00:08:37.120 --> 00:08:45.120
to today is that the CIA in fact had many ups and downs over the decades from its creation right

123
00:08:45.120 --> 00:08:52.000
after World War II until this moment in time and then on 9-11. And so it's been like an accordion

124
00:08:52.000 --> 00:08:59.040
experience of power being taken away from the CIA and then being grabbed back because the CIA

125
00:08:59.040 --> 00:09:07.040
has always historically been the president's hidden hand. It has been the way in which the White House

126
00:09:07.040 --> 00:09:13.840
can execute executive power without having to follow the laws of war that the military does.

127
00:09:13.840 --> 00:09:21.040
So military is a code called Title 10 CIA is a code called Title 50 and while that may sound a

128
00:09:21.040 --> 00:09:27.120
bit wonkish it is important to understand because Title 50 essentially as Andrew can speak to

129
00:09:27.120 --> 00:09:35.680
gives the president authority under classified presidential directive to change any rule he wants

130
00:09:35.680 --> 00:09:40.880
that suits him for an operation at hand which gets us precisely to where we are today.

131
00:09:41.440 --> 00:09:46.000
So as far as I understand there was the Shah the sort of role leader who was in power he was

132
00:09:46.000 --> 00:09:52.400
overthrown in the late 1970s by Hermani Hermani galvanized people to believe in his way and he's

133
00:09:52.400 --> 00:09:58.720
been in power ever since. It gets complicated because homani with an O was the original leader of

134
00:09:58.720 --> 00:10:09.280
the revolution and was later replaced by homani and A. That was the supreme leader. And this speaks to

135
00:10:09.360 --> 00:10:17.840
the revolutionary nature of Iran which has been taking place since 1979 in the news today people

136
00:10:17.840 --> 00:10:26.640
hear the Iranian revolutionary guard. And it's so important to understand that word revolution

137
00:10:26.640 --> 00:10:31.440
because and you can speak to this better than any of us but Iran has been holding on to this idea

138
00:10:32.000 --> 00:10:38.240
that or rather the regime has that we are the revolutionary force against America.

139
00:10:38.240 --> 00:10:48.080
That is why the chant is always death to America. The wound of 1975 the wound of America meddling and

140
00:10:48.080 --> 00:10:58.160
having the Shah as its puppet is as inflamed or was as inflamed two days ago as it was the day after

141
00:10:58.160 --> 00:11:02.880
the revolution in 1979. I think that's probably important context we missed which is the US got

142
00:11:02.880 --> 00:11:11.680
involved in the Shah and how he governed Iran. It's a fascinating period in 1951 so basically under

143
00:11:11.680 --> 00:11:16.080
the Iranian constitution the Shah the king has the authority to select the prime minister

144
00:11:16.080 --> 00:11:22.000
with the consent of parliament the consent part is really nominal. And so Mossadek who is a senior

145
00:11:22.000 --> 00:11:27.520
member of parliament and also a member of the previous royal dynasty is distantly related

146
00:11:27.520 --> 00:11:33.120
this elderly statesman who the Shah out of sort of courtesy after having gone through a successive

147
00:11:33.120 --> 00:11:38.480
list of prime ministers says okay I'm going to appoint him prime minister. So he wasn't democratically

148
00:11:38.480 --> 00:11:43.920
elected. He was elected to parliament but from there the Shah selected him to be prime minister.

149
00:11:43.920 --> 00:11:49.040
Mossadek nationalized the oil company the Anglo-American oil company which was owned primarily by

150
00:11:49.040 --> 00:11:54.240
the British this angered the British who in turn blockaded Iran's ports and basically shut down

151
00:11:54.240 --> 00:12:01.040
its oil industry and creating a national crisis. And Mossadek was sort of amassing additional

152
00:12:01.040 --> 00:12:07.120
powers within himself for himself basically overstepping the authority that he had even though he

153
00:12:07.120 --> 00:12:12.480
had the support of a good deal of the public as it became obvious that this was a bad move especially

154
00:12:12.480 --> 00:12:18.800
in the eyes of Iran's international trading partners and it was causing Iran to be isolated.

155
00:12:19.520 --> 00:12:24.960
There was pushback towards him and then he was removed. The British had wanted MI6 had wanted to

156
00:12:24.960 --> 00:12:30.560
overthrow him basically get him removed and they tried to recruit the United States to help.

157
00:12:30.560 --> 00:12:36.800
President Truman refused to engage in this earlier. Eisenhower comes in is more receptive under

158
00:12:37.280 --> 00:12:43.120
CIA director Alan Dulles to actually engage in this called operation TP Ajax led by

159
00:12:43.120 --> 00:12:48.880
Kermit Roosevelt who is the CIA agent officer tasked with this and then the Americans and the

160
00:12:48.880 --> 00:12:54.560
British basically help Fomenta crowd that is a part of the movement that removes Mossadek.

161
00:12:54.560 --> 00:12:59.600
Now whether it's a common I think misconception that the US CIA was behind it. The British had a

162
00:12:59.600 --> 00:13:04.880
bigger role in this. The Americans were more of the junior partner but they became sort of the

163
00:13:04.880 --> 00:13:10.640
public face of it but most of that was not this overwhelmingly popular democratically elected

164
00:13:10.640 --> 00:13:16.800
figure either the history is more complicated and regardless there have been many prime ministers

165
00:13:16.800 --> 00:13:21.600
after him and so he was known as a nationalist because he believed that Iran's oil should be

166
00:13:21.600 --> 00:13:27.520
nationalized and not really beholden to British interests and that created a lot of resentment

167
00:13:27.520 --> 00:13:33.280
and animosity but that began the US Iranian relationship really solidified when the Shah returned.

168
00:13:33.280 --> 00:13:37.280
He didn't leave really he just sort of took himself out of the country for a bit but he never

169
00:13:37.280 --> 00:13:42.720
stepped down and while this was all being resolved then he comes back and then the US Iranian

170
00:13:42.720 --> 00:13:47.520
relationship continues all the way through 79. So the UK and the US have been meddling in around

171
00:13:47.520 --> 00:13:53.840
for a long time and kind of you know exerting their will. The UK since the 19th century by far.

172
00:13:53.840 --> 00:14:00.480
The UK has been the dominant colonial force in modern Iranian history and they lose that power in

173
00:14:00.480 --> 00:14:06.160
the sort of 1980s early 1980s because the Humeini comes in. The British lose that power with the

174
00:14:06.160 --> 00:14:10.240
fall of pretty much the fall of the empire in the 1940s after World War II and the United States

175
00:14:10.240 --> 00:14:15.760
in 79 exactly and then since then the UK and the US haven't been able to sort of exert control

176
00:14:15.760 --> 00:14:20.560
in their will over Iran zero zero there's not even an embassy there because of course they took

177
00:14:20.560 --> 00:14:25.440
our embassy or they took over the embassy I mean it's been and it's been like ground zero of

178
00:14:25.440 --> 00:14:30.240
nothing for the CIA's power for any American power really for any Western power you call it a

179
00:14:30.240 --> 00:14:35.440
black box yeah it's a rogue nation it's a black box of information a rogue nation is a is one

180
00:14:35.440 --> 00:14:40.560
of a handful of countries around the world that follow no international norms North Korea is a rogue

181
00:14:40.560 --> 00:14:46.800
nation Belarus is a rogue nation Cuba is a rogue nation Venezuela was a rogue nation these

182
00:14:46.800 --> 00:14:53.120
countries that completely stand separate from the norms of an international society

183
00:14:53.920 --> 00:14:59.120
and in Iran's case it also became this black box where it did not allow foreigners in especially

184
00:14:59.120 --> 00:15:03.600
not Westerners it closed down its embassy the traditional methods for collecting intelligence

185
00:15:03.600 --> 00:15:09.840
were very difficult and geographically it's so far away and so far outside of the the

186
00:15:09.840 --> 00:15:15.680
sphere of influence for the United States that in terms of intelligence and military prioritization

187
00:15:16.480 --> 00:15:20.400
it just fell to the bottom of the list and yet look exactly where it is it's right in the middle of

188
00:15:20.400 --> 00:15:27.120
these and to Benjamin's point oil oil oil it's always about oil there's always a component of oil

189
00:15:27.120 --> 00:15:34.080
and there are so many other oil options in that region besides Iran right Saudi Arabia UAE Bahrain

190
00:15:34.080 --> 00:15:41.520
Qatar they've got the United States could partner with other Arab countries to get what they wanted

191
00:15:41.520 --> 00:15:47.760
without having to deal with Iran so explain to me in simple terms why Trump right now has decided

192
00:15:47.840 --> 00:15:53.920
that this is the best time to attack Iran I want to start with you Andrew what's your point of

193
00:15:53.920 --> 00:15:58.080
you on that the full picture of what his motivations I think the question that you just asked

194
00:15:59.040 --> 00:16:05.360
is the most prescient question that we will talk about today why why now why is it being communicated

195
00:16:05.360 --> 00:16:10.000
the way it's being communicated why was it executed the way it was executed so why is now the very

196
00:16:10.000 --> 00:16:15.920
the best of all times I frankly don't think it is I think that's the narrative that's being

197
00:16:15.920 --> 00:16:22.640
communicated to the world and to the public what Donald Trump did in attacking Iran

198
00:16:22.640 --> 00:16:28.720
goes against what the ODNI report assessed for the big the most likely threats against the United

199
00:16:28.720 --> 00:16:35.200
States and her 2000 in the ODNI's 2005 threat assessment it goes against the Department of Wars

200
00:16:35.760 --> 00:16:41.520
2026 national defense strategy and it goes against the White House's national security strategy these

201
00:16:41.520 --> 00:16:48.080
massive doctrinal annual assessments for how the United States will will protect national security

202
00:16:48.080 --> 00:16:52.800
the attack against Iran goes contrary to all three of those in terms of priority and action

203
00:16:52.800 --> 00:17:01.120
so why now why the way that we've done it I can't answer it in any kind of logical way what's the

204
00:17:01.120 --> 00:17:09.280
non-logical answer it's a distraction it's international pressure with Israel it's a cheap

205
00:17:09.280 --> 00:17:16.480
win after a series of losses it's a last ditch effort before he understands he that Donald

206
00:17:16.480 --> 00:17:24.000
Trump and his party will lose control of the house in the midterms this year I have a little bit

207
00:17:24.000 --> 00:17:33.440
of a different take shall I um I believe the current administration is led as a completely

208
00:17:33.440 --> 00:17:40.320
top-down situation in other words like sole presidential authority this current president

209
00:17:41.200 --> 00:17:50.640
is very enraptured with power and with prowess with effectiveness and on the heels of Maduro

210
00:17:51.200 --> 00:17:57.360
and maybe even the cartel leader in Mexico I believe that the current president saw

211
00:17:58.160 --> 00:18:06.960
a moment of intense weakness that had been building no doubt and in warring in general when

212
00:18:06.960 --> 00:18:13.760
when looking at it theoretically like someone like myself the decapitation strike is the ultimate

213
00:18:13.760 --> 00:18:18.480
strike it's literally like it sounds when you can it comes from cut off the head of the snake

214
00:18:19.280 --> 00:18:25.120
and that is exactly what just happened why why they why why did he do that well I cannot tell you why

215
00:18:25.200 --> 00:18:31.760
but I can tell you what what we all know that this happened so if you reverse engineer what happened

216
00:18:32.720 --> 00:18:38.400
I think it become there's only one conclusion which is that I would think the current president

217
00:18:38.400 --> 00:18:47.120
said wanted to do this and was waiting till he had the intelligent the good and the intelligence part

218
00:18:47.600 --> 00:18:57.120
is beyond remarkable like how the how the CIA and NSA and you know probably DIA and NGA all of these

219
00:18:57.120 --> 00:19:03.840
intelligence agencies of which there are many not just the CIA were able to get that information

220
00:19:03.840 --> 00:19:09.040
to the president in that exact moment and make that strike and decapitate the leadership

221
00:19:09.040 --> 00:19:14.480
that has been in power since 1979 when they talk about the motives here trample often

222
00:19:14.960 --> 00:19:21.600
nuclear weapons as the motive saying he didn't want Iran to get nuclear weapons is that what's

223
00:19:21.600 --> 00:19:27.120
going on here in your point of view the 2025 national threat assessment that was produced by the ODNI

224
00:19:27.120 --> 00:19:34.080
in March so less than a year old specifically says that Iran was unlikely to pursue the development

225
00:19:34.080 --> 00:19:39.200
of nuclear enrichment or nuclear weapons that was the assessment of the the ODNI and that instead

226
00:19:39.200 --> 00:19:43.920
their primary concern was that Iran was going to focus resources into the research of biological

227
00:19:43.920 --> 00:19:49.920
and chemical weapons so the fact that in March of 2025 the ODNI the assessment of all intelligence

228
00:19:49.920 --> 00:19:56.320
agencies said Iran is not working on a nuclear weapon and then after the strike in June of the same

229
00:19:56.320 --> 00:20:02.240
year where we dropped bunker busters and for no further obliterating their nuclear enrichment

230
00:20:02.240 --> 00:20:06.880
capability and obliterating their program we have two documents that say they're not developing it

231
00:20:06.880 --> 00:20:10.880
we have another series of attacks that says it's obliterated and yet we're still saying

232
00:20:11.840 --> 00:20:18.160
that we need to attack Iran because of WMD we've heard that story before we've heard that WMD

233
00:20:18.160 --> 00:20:23.680
is a justice that the concern of WMD is a just cause for war and that was when we invaded Iraq in 1992

234
00:20:23.680 --> 00:20:28.400
so what do you think the real motivation there is therefore is it's very similar to what Annie is saying

235
00:20:28.400 --> 00:20:33.040
that we have a current administration that is president down it's fascinating if you read the

236
00:20:33.040 --> 00:20:37.920
official documentation because when you read the Department of Wars national security strategy

237
00:20:37.920 --> 00:20:43.920
what you hear more than any other word is Donald Trump our president Donald Trump is leading America

238
00:20:43.920 --> 00:20:47.520
through our president Donald Trump the great Donald Trump like that it's incredible when you hear

239
00:20:47.520 --> 00:20:51.440
the speeches that come out of Marco Rubio's mouth repeat excess mouth what do you hear more than any

240
00:20:51.440 --> 00:20:58.400
other term you hear the name of the president usually you hear we or the government or this

241
00:20:58.400 --> 00:21:04.080
administration it's not around a personality so it's a very interesting situation because if

242
00:21:04.080 --> 00:21:10.480
there's so much of a person at stake here and everybody surrounding the office of the president

243
00:21:11.120 --> 00:21:15.600
is only there because they are respecting kissing the ring of the personality in the center

244
00:21:15.600 --> 00:21:21.520
and I'm gonna add to that further just for a moment if I may because on that point the button on

245
00:21:21.520 --> 00:21:27.920
that is that if I watch the president the current president's speeches to sort of you know discern

246
00:21:28.880 --> 00:21:34.240
and you can often see get your answer right there and in one of the speeches either this morning

247
00:21:34.240 --> 00:21:44.000
or yesterday he mentioned that the Ayatollah tried to kill him and it's to me it's like oh that's

248
00:21:44.000 --> 00:21:51.920
the tit for tat you know again top down or you could say schoolboy sandbox I say that as the mother

249
00:21:51.920 --> 00:21:59.040
of two boys you know this human behavior that is way outside the norm of you know intelligence

250
00:21:59.040 --> 00:22:04.560
reports and assessments and these long monographs that may or may not actually be effective I mean

251
00:22:04.560 --> 00:22:11.200
you know the biggest surprises of the past 40 years the Berlin wall falling and 9-11 were completely

252
00:22:11.200 --> 00:22:17.280
unseen by any intelligence reports so there is an argument that those intelligence reports

253
00:22:18.080 --> 00:22:23.120
are as good as a coin toss so I want to come to that point because the very fact that we have

254
00:22:23.120 --> 00:22:28.000
an Islamic Republic is the direct result of the failure of American intelligence to see that

255
00:22:28.000 --> 00:22:35.200
threat as early as 1976-77 a failure to inform then president Carter to do the necessary take the

256
00:22:35.200 --> 00:22:40.880
necessary steps to support the Shah and to neutralize that threat so the United States track record

257
00:22:40.880 --> 00:22:47.680
any run for the last 40 or 50 years is abysmal when it comes to intelligence and when it comes to

258
00:22:47.680 --> 00:22:54.560
statecraft and so there's that legacy number one number two October 7 2023 the Hamas attack against

259
00:22:54.560 --> 00:23:00.000
Israel changed the dynamic entirely that attack surprised Israeli intelligence and surprised

260
00:23:00.000 --> 00:23:05.040
Americans and surprised almost anybody watching nobody thought Hamas was going to do that when they

261
00:23:05.040 --> 00:23:09.120
did it and the means in which they did it so all of a sudden that forced a recalibration a

262
00:23:09.280 --> 00:23:14.480
recalculation of what's at stake what could happen if we wait for an imminent threat till we see

263
00:23:14.480 --> 00:23:19.360
actually the sign outside the door it's too late so from the president's perspective to answer

264
00:23:19.360 --> 00:23:24.880
your original question why now why do this I believe the October 7th attacks and it's not

265
00:23:24.880 --> 00:23:30.640
the best of Israel necessarily it's the idea that Iran we know finances Hamas subsidizes Hamas

266
00:23:30.640 --> 00:23:37.760
trains Hamas equips Hamas provides logistical support of on many levels so that Hamas can be

267
00:23:37.760 --> 00:23:43.520
what it was and Hezbollah also so you have these destabilizing non-state groups in the Middle East

268
00:23:43.520 --> 00:23:49.360
wreaking havoc destabilizing causing causing chaos you're the United States you're also dealing with

269
00:23:49.360 --> 00:23:54.720
a nuclear threshold state so Iran may or may not have a nuclear weapons program but they exceeded

270
00:23:54.720 --> 00:24:00.080
the 20% enrichment that they were allowed to do under the non nuclear non-proliferation treaty

271
00:24:00.080 --> 00:24:06.080
they they violated IAEA safeguards they they lied so you take all of this together this is

272
00:24:06.080 --> 00:24:09.920
a regime that can't be trusted the chance death to America which is more than Saddam Hussein

273
00:24:09.920 --> 00:24:16.240
ever did and is funding groups that had a risk that up until 9-11 Iran was behind more acts of

274
00:24:16.240 --> 00:24:21.920
terror that cost American lives in any other state or non-state group in the world 9-11 change

275
00:24:21.920 --> 00:24:28.080
that but up until that the marine barracks bombing in the 1980s terrorist attacks throughout

276
00:24:28.080 --> 00:24:35.600
Europe South America US Embassy absolutely the USS Cole right so this is it we've been at war

277
00:24:35.600 --> 00:24:39.200
from the president's perspective with Iran since they took our hostages for which they've never

278
00:24:39.200 --> 00:24:44.240
attuned for they've never been held to account for so if you take that calculus and then now we're

279
00:24:44.240 --> 00:24:50.560
in a post-October 7th world with a nuclear threshold state what happened that changed was last

280
00:24:50.560 --> 00:24:56.240
year six day a 12-day war in June created an opportunity weakened Iran enough in its proxies

281
00:24:56.240 --> 00:25:02.880
Hezbollah Hamas weakened if there's an opportunity to finally address this 47-year-old conflict

282
00:25:02.880 --> 00:25:09.040
this was the window to do it that is why I believe rightly or wrongly the president took the action

283
00:25:09.040 --> 00:25:14.640
when he did that doesn't make it the best window and that's what we're being told is it was the last

284
00:25:14.640 --> 00:25:19.120
best window I don't think it was the last best but it was a window or I agree from their perspective

285
00:25:19.120 --> 00:25:23.520
it was it was a window you've got everyone weekend you've got the the regime less popular than

286
00:25:23.520 --> 00:25:28.640
it's ever been I mean we saw the protest in January that led to the the you know the the blood bath

287
00:25:29.600 --> 00:25:36.320
upwards of 30,000 people killed on January 8th and 9th this was you know this regime is at its

288
00:25:36.320 --> 00:25:42.400
lowest lowest point both in terms of domestic credibility and soft power and ability to to use

289
00:25:42.400 --> 00:25:48.000
proxies to carry out its will why not strike it now would be the logic I mean I can give lots of

290
00:25:48.000 --> 00:25:51.920
reasons why you wouldn't strike it it's it's violating international law it sets a dangerous

291
00:25:51.920 --> 00:25:58.560
precedent it creates instability there are Americans dead at marades dead uh Saudis dead

292
00:25:59.600 --> 00:26:03.920
for what for for for for something that was already on the precipice of dying itself

293
00:26:04.400 --> 00:26:10.000
it's been dying for 40 years so why not let it run its course because because what more damage

294
00:26:10.000 --> 00:26:15.280
is it going to do what more October 7th can we see arguably less than anything that's already

295
00:26:15.280 --> 00:26:20.240
been done so it's like taking action on it's like putting down the dead dog after it's done all of

296
00:26:20.240 --> 00:26:26.080
its it wasn't well you I don't think that you could say to the families of the 30,000 some people

297
00:26:26.080 --> 00:26:31.280
who were murdered by the regime just earlier you know in January that it's a dead dog I don't I

298
00:26:31.280 --> 00:26:38.000
think they would disagree that's it's their country it's their people it's their it's their decision

299
00:26:38.000 --> 00:26:42.160
it's their right to self determination I'm not saying I'm not saying it's correct what was done I'm

300
00:26:42.160 --> 00:26:47.360
I'm just simply telling saying the facts of that which I agree with you know unilaterally that

301
00:26:47.360 --> 00:26:53.120
the weakened situation was perceived by this administration as the moment to strike agree and

302
00:26:53.120 --> 00:27:01.120
what is done is done agree and so I think what's more interesting to me is you know observing how

303
00:27:01.120 --> 00:27:07.120
America is dealing with this I mean we are in our own crisis America our own serious crisis

304
00:27:07.680 --> 00:27:13.680
and there are crises around the world particularly in this area and without having a crystal ball

305
00:27:13.680 --> 00:27:20.080
none of us know and I think that what will happen in the next two weeks will be profoundly telling

306
00:27:20.720 --> 00:27:25.920
interestingly people will say this was a good move or this was a bad move which in and of

307
00:27:25.920 --> 00:27:33.440
itself is a bizarre theater because your point is correct you've got you know America taking action

308
00:27:33.440 --> 00:27:38.800
in a place that's not it's not it's that's a sovereign country yes and to your point you've got

309
00:27:39.680 --> 00:27:47.200
you know decades of a menace that is now off the table I would disagree with that exactly we don't

310
00:27:47.200 --> 00:27:53.520
know yes and and the worst part is that in the lead up to this Iran's relationship with the with

311
00:27:53.520 --> 00:27:59.040
Russia and China and other countries that are successfully countering American influence worldwide

312
00:27:59.040 --> 00:28:03.440
had grown closer than ever before I think they're fair weather friends that just turn on them in a

313
00:28:03.440 --> 00:28:08.640
second it's what are you concerned about aren't you so so there's a number of things here so first

314
00:28:08.640 --> 00:28:14.160
of all with the removal of Maduro and Venezuela which happened less than 60 days ago and now the

315
00:28:14.160 --> 00:28:19.920
killing the assassination of a the decapitation of the regime which was the same thing you did here

316
00:28:19.920 --> 00:28:24.160
when you rendered Maduro right it's a decapitation that regime that's different I would say if

317
00:28:24.160 --> 00:28:29.680
you're going to you know extract someone you haven't killed them so that's not decapitation

318
00:28:29.760 --> 00:28:35.360
basically swapping out the CEO this is completely reforming the company I agree with that because

319
00:28:35.360 --> 00:28:38.880
because they were different countries they operated in different ways but when you attack the

320
00:28:38.880 --> 00:28:44.320
leadership when you attack the head of state that is protected under international law because

321
00:28:44.320 --> 00:28:49.040
because when you do that you open the gates for everyone of course what is it what is it the heart

322
00:28:49.040 --> 00:28:53.040
of your concern because it sounds like you're saying that this wasn't the right time to do this

323
00:28:53.040 --> 00:28:58.160
and and so what are the unintended consequences that you're for seeing so there is a

324
00:28:58.880 --> 00:29:04.400
domino effect that happens with every decision that the United States makes and now that we have

325
00:29:04.400 --> 00:29:10.480
essentially taken this military action against a sovereign country it opens the door for all sorts

326
00:29:10.480 --> 00:29:15.680
of other countries to just unilaterally choose when they're going to take action against another

327
00:29:15.680 --> 00:29:20.720
sovereign independent we have created more opportunity for more rogue nations which is a greater

328
00:29:20.720 --> 00:29:27.200
abandonment of an international community which destabilizes our global trade our economics our

329
00:29:27.200 --> 00:29:34.240
sense of personal security the Americans are less secure now than they were four days ago

330
00:29:34.240 --> 00:29:40.800
they're targeted now more than they were four days ago and if we if we are coming to the conclusion

331
00:29:40.800 --> 00:29:44.960
that we need to make things worse before we can make things better that's a conversation I guess

332
00:29:44.960 --> 00:29:50.640
we can have the debate we can have but with with the crisis that we have here at home with the

333
00:29:50.640 --> 00:29:55.840
concerns that exist with the stated prior crisis here at home we have an economic crisis here at

334
00:29:56.000 --> 00:30:01.680
home an immigration crisis here at home we have a crisis of politics here at home like the United States

335
00:30:01.680 --> 00:30:06.080
I would just say it's tribal warfare here at home I mean I watch it and it's just very very very

336
00:30:06.080 --> 00:30:10.560
dangerous keep going no no no it's just now we have just exacerbated that even more and we've

337
00:30:10.560 --> 00:30:18.560
exacerbated that more with an ally in the Middle East that just got done carrying out one of the most

338
00:30:18.560 --> 00:30:24.720
destructive attacks in history against Gaza you you brought up something you talk about sovereignty

339
00:30:25.440 --> 00:30:32.560
with regards to the January 8th the violence committed against the protesters you said that

340
00:30:32.560 --> 00:30:37.600
basically it's their own people soft determination how does the international community deal with

341
00:30:37.600 --> 00:30:42.960
acts of state violence against its own people that's so we have a word for that and it's called

342
00:30:42.960 --> 00:30:48.080
interest state conflicts okay conflict inside of a state a civil war right the international

343
00:30:48.080 --> 00:30:51.680
community has no responsibility for stepping into a civil war so that was that this is a great

344
00:30:51.680 --> 00:30:57.680
point this is the debate that the that the four allied powers had at the end of world war two when

345
00:30:57.680 --> 00:31:02.800
they were convening the Nuremberg trials you had this idea that we don't have laws to account for

346
00:31:02.800 --> 00:31:08.400
how a country or state treats people within its own sovereign borders the idea is that Germany could

347
00:31:08.400 --> 00:31:13.520
do what Germany did within Germany proper forget about occupied Germany within its own borders it

348
00:31:13.520 --> 00:31:18.160
could mistreat anybody because that was German law and the push was that that's not the world we

349
00:31:18.160 --> 00:31:22.160
want to live in anymore we want to live in a world where basically nations cannot do that

350
00:31:22.160 --> 00:31:26.720
to people and that's where the basis of the Nuremberg tribunals came and that's where we got

351
00:31:26.720 --> 00:31:31.920
international law of war crimes crimes of aggression genocide so on and so forth so the idea is

352
00:31:31.920 --> 00:31:37.040
that just because Iran is sovereign we we sit back and allow them to do that it wasn't a civil war

353
00:31:37.040 --> 00:31:41.280
because one side was fighting with with with knives machetes assault rifles the other side had

354
00:31:41.280 --> 00:31:46.400
spoons wouldn't you know I mean that kind of thing right it was so lopsided it was such an abuse

355
00:31:46.480 --> 00:31:51.760
and a asymmetric battle under the Clinton administration we chose to not be part of the

356
00:31:51.760 --> 00:31:57.280
international criminal court we pulled ourselves out of the very same conclusion that you're talking

357
00:31:57.280 --> 00:32:01.520
about yeah but Nuremberg was not but but there's also the ICJ there's a UN framework that's

358
00:32:01.520 --> 00:32:05.760
independent from the ICC and the Rome treaty so all I'm saying is we do have international law

359
00:32:05.760 --> 00:32:10.720
that addresses what nations can do to their own people and we violated international law

360
00:32:11.200 --> 00:32:17.440
by run by attacking a head of state so what what is the there's no continuity there's no consistency we

361
00:32:17.440 --> 00:32:21.040
choose to do what we choose to do we choose to support what we choose to support and we choose to

362
00:32:21.040 --> 00:32:26.080
abandon what we choose to abandon and how how do you make sense in a world like that how do you

363
00:32:26.080 --> 00:32:31.040
predict the future how do you manage even raising a family how do you know where you can travel how do

364
00:32:31.040 --> 00:32:35.440
you decide on investments how do you you can't that is a great point and I think that's the that's

365
00:32:35.680 --> 00:32:39.920
you know that's the point to be made here is that there's an absence of the enforcement of law

366
00:32:39.920 --> 00:32:45.360
internationally and it's victor's justice and the dominant will essentially exercise whatever will

367
00:32:45.360 --> 00:32:52.960
they want the law be damped do you think this is part of Trump's what his motivations are linked

368
00:32:52.960 --> 00:32:56.560
his personal legacy and I say this a lot because I think sometimes you've got to kind of follow

369
00:32:56.560 --> 00:33:00.320
the incentive structure especially if the president that can't be reelected who's talked a lot

370
00:33:00.320 --> 00:33:03.760
about wanting to win the Nobel Peace Prize although he's probably never said it directly

371
00:33:03.840 --> 00:33:09.440
and you it almost looks like a trump that's thinking about his legacy ahead of time and one's

372
00:33:09.440 --> 00:33:12.800
legacy is going to be determined by like the wars you you start the people you take out the

373
00:33:12.800 --> 00:33:17.840
Venezuela situation the economies seems to be really important to him do you think this is he's

374
00:33:17.840 --> 00:33:22.080
motivated more so by his legacy than say someone else I do believe that we are in a position where

375
00:33:22.080 --> 00:33:27.120
this is the first president we've ever had and I would love to be wrong please disagree with me

376
00:33:27.120 --> 00:33:30.720
on this but I think this is the first president we've ever had that's more focused on personal

377
00:33:30.800 --> 00:33:37.920
legacy than professional or political legacy I think he's thinking about Donald Trump and the name

378
00:33:37.920 --> 00:33:44.240
Trump and the Trump fortune and the Trump future more than he's thinking about the image of him

379
00:33:44.240 --> 00:33:48.720
on children's bookmarks as a as a president of the United States for the rest of the existence of

380
00:33:48.720 --> 00:33:55.200
the United States I hope I'm wrong but I don't feel like he's motivated by country by

381
00:33:56.080 --> 00:34:01.600
service he's supposed to be yeah it's not it's not country over part or party over country it's

382
00:34:01.600 --> 00:34:06.560
brand over country the Trump brand I would agree with that yeah I've never had a president talking

383
00:34:06.560 --> 00:34:12.400
about I might take Greenland might might go to Venezuela um he he fancies himself a dealmaker he

384
00:34:12.400 --> 00:34:17.360
wants a Nobel Peace Prize he he prads himself on the number of wars that he's he's he's he's

385
00:34:17.360 --> 00:34:22.560
he's uh I'm ended uh conflicts that he's solved I think ideally he would have wanted Iran to end

386
00:34:22.560 --> 00:34:27.280
up with a diplomatic solution he came with terms I don't think war was a preferred option I think

387
00:34:27.280 --> 00:34:31.040
it would be much happier if there was an agreement that we know allowed everything to kind of stay in

388
00:34:31.040 --> 00:34:36.400
place Iran would abide by nuclear restrictions missile restrictions proxy restrictions and then

389
00:34:36.400 --> 00:34:40.880
a Trump casino gets built in you know a Tehran that would have made him happy because yeah that is

390
00:34:40.880 --> 00:34:44.560
about the personal that is about the brand that and it's also he sees that as benefiting the United

391
00:34:44.560 --> 00:34:49.920
States benefiting the US's global partners in the region so but but I think a lot of this is

392
00:34:49.920 --> 00:34:54.960
personally driven I would I would agree I also find it quite fascinating that our Prime Minister

393
00:34:54.960 --> 00:35:00.320
in the UK Kirstama is not being asked about any of this stuff ahead of time I think if we go back

394
00:35:00.320 --> 00:35:05.920
a couple of decades the UK and the US were allies now it seems like the US is kind of acting as a

395
00:35:05.920 --> 00:35:10.800
lone force in the world and it's funny because you know watch Kirstama come out after the attacks

396
00:35:10.800 --> 00:35:14.880
have happened and he clearly had no idea what's going to happen same in Venezuela once upon a time

397
00:35:14.880 --> 00:35:19.680
you would have briefed us the president did go to the Prime Minister about I think using

398
00:35:19.680 --> 00:35:25.120
Diego Garcia in other bases and was turned down if I'm not mistaken right that that so there was

399
00:35:25.120 --> 00:35:29.840
some awareness that something was being planned and and the Prime Minister said that the the UK

400
00:35:29.840 --> 00:35:34.560
government would have no part in any of that what's going on here what's the the macro picture of

401
00:35:34.560 --> 00:35:40.080
in terms of the declining world order that we once knew where we had where it wasn't just United

402
00:35:40.080 --> 00:35:43.600
States running around doing whatever they liked and other people might be briefed or asked

403
00:35:44.320 --> 00:35:50.640
I mean I'm interested in looking at outcome you know and then kind of looking backwards at how

404
00:35:50.640 --> 00:35:57.120
we got there and I'm also very interested in how divided America is because I really do see it

405
00:35:57.120 --> 00:36:03.600
as the greatest weakness so you can show strength in what just happened but if you are extremely

406
00:36:03.600 --> 00:36:10.320
vulnerable at home then and I'm not talking necessarily about Hezbollah terrorists cells being

407
00:36:10.320 --> 00:36:18.720
you know activated which may or may not happen I'm just talking about the the clash of political

408
00:36:18.720 --> 00:36:27.440
parties in the United States and to that end I often look at the past and like so we're talking

409
00:36:27.440 --> 00:36:34.000
about you mentioned you know being friendly and having our allies and our and I can't help but

410
00:36:34.080 --> 00:36:40.800
look at the reaction of the opposing party right now at this action for better for worse but

411
00:36:40.800 --> 00:36:49.440
bringing up the Iraq war and talking about how we got our allies involved we went to Congress

412
00:36:50.240 --> 00:36:58.800
and I as a historian can't help but think but wait a minute the Iraq war was built on faulty

413
00:36:58.800 --> 00:37:11.040
intelligence the Iraq war led us into a 20 year absolute misery with so many people in this area

414
00:37:11.600 --> 00:37:20.320
killed and so many more problems metastasizing as a result and so to to be selective about what

415
00:37:20.320 --> 00:37:28.320
works and what what what doesn't work is to me as dangerous as a situation as we are in now and I

416
00:37:28.320 --> 00:37:34.640
know that's a little bit skirting away from you know giving you an answer as to why what was done

417
00:37:34.640 --> 00:37:40.720
was done or whether it's a good idea or a bad idea it just simply is very interesting to me because

418
00:37:40.720 --> 00:37:46.960
I can't help but see you know being a subject matter expert on the history of the CIA in particular

419
00:37:47.600 --> 00:37:56.080
I see these actions where it is presidential authority driven since the end of world war two and to

420
00:37:56.080 --> 00:38:01.520
me that's what this action looks like so we're in the new era where we are in which I find interesting

421
00:38:01.520 --> 00:38:08.800
is where the president of the United States can essentially take what would historically be a covert

422
00:38:08.800 --> 00:38:16.560
action operation you wouldn't even know about it that would be the idea instead announcing it as a

423
00:38:16.560 --> 00:38:23.520
military program so he's merging the legal authorities of title 10 and title 50 and of course the

424
00:38:23.520 --> 00:38:27.280
average person in the United States doesn't like oh wait a minute he's merging those authorities

425
00:38:27.280 --> 00:38:32.640
because what is what are the title 10 and title 50 well title 10 is the military must follow certain

426
00:38:32.640 --> 00:38:39.520
laws of war okay and title 50 says if the president decides it is a national security threat

427
00:38:39.520 --> 00:38:48.240
he can use the CIA's paramilitary that is an actual military force they sheep dip tier one operators

428
00:38:48.240 --> 00:38:55.440
over from the military and take the patches off their shoulders put them in non-military clothing

429
00:38:55.440 --> 00:39:01.680
and send them out to do military type work so he's using the military how he wants to use them yes

430
00:39:01.680 --> 00:39:08.880
and that's right as the commander in chief as the chief executive of the United States the

431
00:39:08.880 --> 00:39:13.440
D.O.D. or now the D.O.W. and CIA fall under the executive branch they don't fall under the

432
00:39:13.440 --> 00:39:18.480
legislative branch they don't fall under the judicial branch so the president has and always has

433
00:39:18.480 --> 00:39:25.200
had the ability to take these types of actions and write executive orders what's so different here

434
00:39:25.920 --> 00:39:32.960
is that while we're talking about CIA and CIA being used by the president in his exercise of

435
00:39:32.960 --> 00:39:40.240
authority what we're all not talking about what we're missing is that CIA has been gutted this is

436
00:39:40.240 --> 00:39:45.760
the same president that went to war with CIA in his first term CIA has gone through massive

437
00:39:46.320 --> 00:39:51.920
attrition since then they were defunded under his first presidency so director a cliff is the

438
00:39:51.920 --> 00:39:57.120
least used a director the least reference director you never hear about him is he the head of the

439
00:39:57.120 --> 00:40:07.760
CIA is the CIA and and what I am concerned about is that the CIA I left in 2014 was already missing

440
00:40:08.240 --> 00:40:16.320
intelligence on Venezuela and and Iran since then it's gotten smaller it's gotten marginalized more

441
00:40:16.320 --> 00:40:23.440
it went to it's been treated hostily by the by the US president and the CIA that I had started hearing

442
00:40:23.440 --> 00:40:29.600
rumors about in the early 2020s 65% of the intelligence that they were producing was coming from

443
00:40:29.600 --> 00:40:37.280
foreign allies what I would also say is that every CIA sadly

444
00:40:37.760 --> 00:40:44.240
you know has nostalgia for the former CIA if you look at history and believes that their CIA was

445
00:40:44.240 --> 00:40:49.360
better than the current CIA that's just the nature I'm not saying it was better worse I'm just saying

446
00:40:49.360 --> 00:40:55.520
the intelligence that the CIA is using now I I would argue that we keep talking about CIA and you

447
00:40:55.520 --> 00:41:02.560
keep seeing CIA in the headlines and it's actually not but hang on but hang on od and I didn't or

448
00:41:02.560 --> 00:41:07.360
at least according to shall we say the New York Times which must have come from the White House

449
00:41:07.360 --> 00:41:12.960
CIA provided the intelligence exactly so there you go fake I don't think that's real you don't think

450
00:41:12.960 --> 00:41:17.200
that is a shield here's the thing all right and how do you think why do you think why do you see

451
00:41:17.200 --> 00:41:22.640
I is the central intelligence agency which is by design it means that every other intelligence that

452
00:41:22.640 --> 00:41:28.160
comes from every other agency inside the DOD inside of the National Security Infrastructure has to

453
00:41:28.160 --> 00:41:32.880
come through CIA only CIA produces the final product for the president so therefore

454
00:41:33.600 --> 00:41:39.600
everything is CIA and CIA contain and CIA is the one that's in charge of maintaining foreign

455
00:41:39.600 --> 00:41:43.680
relationships with foreign intelligence services so when Israel has an intelligence report that they

456
00:41:43.680 --> 00:41:50.320
share with the US president it goes through the CIA so ever all credit and all blame always goes

457
00:41:50.320 --> 00:41:55.440
to CIA that doesn't mean CIA actually had the intelligence themselves so what who do you think

458
00:41:55.440 --> 00:42:00.880
have the intelligence and why does this matter the number one most informed country in the world

459
00:42:00.880 --> 00:42:05.920
on the goings-on in Iran is Israel tell me if I'm wrong no I would agree with that there's no way

460
00:42:05.920 --> 00:42:10.240
the United States would have been able to launch against Iran without close coordination and

461
00:42:10.240 --> 00:42:14.720
incredible intelligence support from Israel and I'm going to just why does it why does it matter

462
00:42:14.720 --> 00:42:20.400
because it means that Israel could be directing the activities of the US military by the intelligence

463
00:42:20.400 --> 00:42:27.280
they select to give to the president so I wouldn't take that step yeah I don't think Israel has a

464
00:42:27.280 --> 00:42:33.760
monopoly on intelligence provided we know that MI6 has also historically been very active and very

465
00:42:33.760 --> 00:42:38.480
capable probably more so than CIA has been and in large part because the British government has a

466
00:42:38.480 --> 00:42:46.320
embassy has diplomatic ties has trade and economic ties with Iran and it's and the Islamic regime

467
00:42:46.320 --> 00:42:51.040
has seen the UK as a effective sort of pipeline or conduit to the United States and has used that

468
00:42:51.040 --> 00:42:57.760
in the past sometimes you know to to better effect than before but I think that there's a I think

469
00:42:57.760 --> 00:43:03.040
there's sources of intelligence that the United States gets and Israel is influential but I don't

470
00:43:03.040 --> 00:43:07.040
think it is the sole influencer or the one that pushes it over the edge one or the other I wasn't

471
00:43:07.040 --> 00:43:11.840
saying that they're the sole but but when it came to Iran and I think we're saying the same thing

472
00:43:11.840 --> 00:43:16.640
they are they don't have the monopoly but they have the they're the biggest gaming town exactly

473
00:43:16.640 --> 00:43:21.040
when it comes to understand what's happening in Iran I mean I'm going to disagree

474
00:43:21.520 --> 00:43:27.520
because I think that okay look at past situations where the United States attempted to do a

475
00:43:27.520 --> 00:43:34.320
decapitation strike and then have a regime change you can look at Iraq we tried to kill Saddam Hussein

476
00:43:34.320 --> 00:43:42.080
failed and then a disaster blows up Libya tried to kill Qaddafi fails a disaster blows up

477
00:43:43.120 --> 00:43:53.920
Iran tries to kill the regime or decapitate the regime and succeeds so you are you saying that

478
00:43:53.920 --> 00:43:59.520
you believe that's because in the other situations the intelligence was coming from the CIA

479
00:43:59.600 --> 00:44:05.760
who didn't have such great intelligence and in this situation the intelligence was coming from

480
00:44:05.760 --> 00:44:16.000
Israel who did no I'm saying that that a big piece of the opportunity of Iran is tied to the

481
00:44:16.000 --> 00:44:21.280
opportunity that was presented to us by our allies in the region I don't think it's just Israel

482
00:44:21.280 --> 00:44:24.960
Saudi Arabia wants to see the end of Iran UAE wants to see the end of Iran Jordan wants to see

483
00:44:24.960 --> 00:44:28.800
the end of Iran there's multiple allies in the region that want to see the end of Iran but when it

484
00:44:28.800 --> 00:44:37.920
came to who had the longest most reliable human intelligence source network inside Iran I don't think

485
00:44:37.920 --> 00:44:43.680
anybody came even close to comparing with with Israel and you're saying that was used selectively

486
00:44:43.680 --> 00:44:48.960
meaning because all intelligence that shared with an ally is selective of course I have 10 pieces

487
00:44:48.960 --> 00:44:53.680
do I give all 10 pieces to my ally or do I give just the three pieces that I think will move them

488
00:44:54.240 --> 00:45:00.480
right they had to have those 20 individuals tagged to do their find fix and finishing period and

489
00:45:00.480 --> 00:45:07.360
of story it couldn't have happened without it and I believe that the United States the CIA aggregates

490
00:45:07.360 --> 00:45:13.920
all that intelligence you know Sigidge I mean all the ins to know that I can't imagine how

491
00:45:13.920 --> 00:45:22.000
Israel knew that more than the United States I just I that's my that's where I mean just to give

492
00:45:22.000 --> 00:45:26.240
you a very quick example right you're 100% right the people have to be tagged when you tag a

493
00:45:26.240 --> 00:45:29.920
cell phone let's just say we're talking about cell phones cell phones give you a geolocation

494
00:45:30.480 --> 00:45:37.040
every cell phone signal sends a geotag but only on the service network that controls that phone

495
00:45:37.040 --> 00:45:41.520
United States doesn't have access to most of the service providers in the Middle East so you

496
00:45:41.520 --> 00:45:47.360
already have to have someone to interlock you the Middle Eastern service provider with the West

497
00:45:47.360 --> 00:45:51.760
and then on top of that you then have to be able to identify that that selector that cell phone

498
00:45:51.760 --> 00:45:57.040
belongs to that person again if you think that the United States is so powerful it has every cell

499
00:45:57.040 --> 00:46:02.960
phone of every person around the country around the world there I think there's biometric tagging that

500
00:46:04.000 --> 00:46:11.120
is not necessarily electronic based so you're saying that I appreciate your point of view

501
00:46:12.000 --> 00:46:19.920
the point is that Iran according to every prioritized list that we have is on the low end of our

502
00:46:19.920 --> 00:46:28.080
priorities Russia's above them China's above them the cartels across Mexico are above them so somehow

503
00:46:28.080 --> 00:46:33.920
we had such refined intelligence on what's your conclusion here Andrew because I feel like there's

504
00:46:33.920 --> 00:46:38.320
in that there's a second half of your point that's missing like a conclusion that you're you're

505
00:46:38.320 --> 00:46:42.400
pointing towards but not saying isn't it just the lowest of the hanging fruits of all the ones you

506
00:46:42.400 --> 00:46:48.000
mentioned also correct it doesn't so what I'm saying is I it doesn't make sense that we would take

507
00:46:48.000 --> 00:46:57.200
this action unless we are really just acting on the behest of our allies for some other kind of

508
00:46:57.200 --> 00:47:03.360
gain a personal gain for the Trump brand if you will some sort of hegemony that the United States

509
00:47:03.360 --> 00:47:08.080
is desperately grasping for because we realize that we don't have that power and influence anymore

510
00:47:08.080 --> 00:47:13.440
and as a result of these actions and actions like what we took in Venezuela we have now empowered

511
00:47:13.520 --> 00:47:19.040
and validated some of the worst regimes in the world that we've always held accountable for

512
00:47:19.040 --> 00:47:22.640
taking the same kind of actions that we take and who you concerned about as it relates to other regimes

513
00:47:22.640 --> 00:47:29.200
China Russia this Russia I believe that a big part of the reason that that Zelensky hasn't been

514
00:47:29.200 --> 00:47:34.400
assassinated by Russia is because that would be crossing a red line that would that would infuriate

515
00:47:34.400 --> 00:47:38.400
Europe and the United States because you don't attack world leaders we just gave them permission

516
00:47:38.480 --> 00:47:44.160
to do so the same thing in Taiwan we can now China has free reign to just assassinate one person in

517
00:47:44.160 --> 00:47:49.360
Taiwan and and that's just them we're not even talking about Pakistan and India we're not talking

518
00:47:49.360 --> 00:47:53.440
about any of the border disputes that are happening anywhere else across Asia or warlords in Africa we

519
00:47:53.440 --> 00:48:02.880
just validated these these illegal inhumane extra judicial processes all over the world so

520
00:48:02.880 --> 00:48:12.880
unlike these other world leaders harmony was his philosophy his entire ideology is built on

521
00:48:12.880 --> 00:48:17.840
death to America among death to other things you don't have other world leaders you don't have

522
00:48:17.840 --> 00:48:22.560
the president of Taiwan saying death to China you don't have Zelensky even saying death to Russia

523
00:48:22.560 --> 00:48:26.320
he might want Putin dead but he's not sort of he doesn't want the demise of the entire Russian

524
00:48:26.320 --> 00:48:34.560
Republic so I think this is where Hamine stands apart where it is it is a movement which became

525
00:48:34.560 --> 00:48:41.040
a system of government predicated on the demise and the destruction of of the United States what's

526
00:48:41.040 --> 00:48:45.200
interesting we counter that yeah we're interesting with the term stands apart is I was imagining

527
00:48:45.200 --> 00:48:51.040
therefore a spectrum and the minute it becomes a spectrum it becomes somewhat subjective so you

528
00:48:51.040 --> 00:48:54.880
know one might say well we think they wanted to hurt us whereas before in my head when I grew up

529
00:48:54.880 --> 00:48:58.320
I always used to see these wars and go why didn't they just they know it the guy lives like

530
00:48:58.320 --> 00:49:01.520
I know that sounds like a simplifying but they know where he is why didn't they just take him out

531
00:49:01.520 --> 00:49:05.920
and it was always it always felt to me that that was off the table in what you can't just

532
00:49:05.920 --> 00:49:09.040
assassinate a leader because you don't like them where you're having a sort of geopolitical

533
00:49:09.040 --> 00:49:13.920
disagreement and it's actually only in the last sort of year or two that I've thought okay maybe

534
00:49:13.920 --> 00:49:17.760
it is free reign to just fly in and snatch him out of bed with their wife which is what happened

535
00:49:17.760 --> 00:49:21.760
in Venezuela and then seeing this that you can just drop a bomb on them wherever they are

536
00:49:21.760 --> 00:49:26.800
it does kind of make you you know wonder maybe this is now on the table I've never really seen

537
00:49:26.800 --> 00:49:30.720
that in my lifetime I mean I know there was some things that went on Libya and Iraq and so on but

538
00:49:30.720 --> 00:49:35.760
to snatch a prime minister out of bed with his wife and fly him over and with photos of it I go wow

539
00:49:35.760 --> 00:49:44.160
this is this is a new type of geopolitical action it's what the it's what our secretary of state

540
00:49:44.160 --> 00:49:51.280
is calling the golden era of the United States the old world is gone like these are that this

541
00:49:51.280 --> 00:49:58.000
is the narrative coming out and and being spread by the representation of the free world

542
00:49:58.800 --> 00:50:04.480
France they're the macro and justice morning stated that to be free you must be feared

543
00:50:06.000 --> 00:50:11.200
this is the world that we're creating death to America guess how much I care about that guess how

544
00:50:11.200 --> 00:50:17.520
much I care that a poor broke ass far away fucking pitily dank country says death to America guess

545
00:50:17.520 --> 00:50:23.120
how afraid I am of that zero and guess how afraid multiple people who have led the United States have

546
00:50:23.120 --> 00:50:27.840
been afraid of that they they're not you can say it all you want doesn't matter and when you do

547
00:50:27.840 --> 00:50:34.240
when you do carry out an attack right against the USS Cole for every one attack that's successful

548
00:50:34.240 --> 00:50:40.640
25 of them are thwarted that's the that's the benefit of being the most powerful military

549
00:50:40.640 --> 00:50:46.240
in the world you don't have to worry about everybody who chance in the streets how many people

550
00:50:46.240 --> 00:50:50.080
disown their kids because they say I hate you when they're teenagers you don't you're like give

551
00:50:50.080 --> 00:50:54.640
it time they'll grow up they'll be fine they've got to go through their shit before they realize

552
00:50:54.640 --> 00:50:58.880
what it's like to be grown-ups that's what we say about our children the other you can say the

553
00:50:58.880 --> 00:51:05.920
same thing about a country that just came to power in 1979 they're less than a hundred years old

554
00:51:06.480 --> 00:51:12.000
what what do they know about how to actually be a country what do we know we're only 250 years old

555
00:51:12.000 --> 00:51:19.840
um I mean it's hard it's hard to swallow that like you know it's okay if you have like a horrible

556
00:51:19.840 --> 00:51:25.920
you know murderous brutal regime making women run around in his jobs and ruining entire thousands

557
00:51:25.920 --> 00:51:31.920
of years old Persian civilization you been to this part of the world I have not been to that that's

558
00:51:31.920 --> 00:51:36.240
normal life there that's what do you think is happening in the in the hermit kingdom in North

559
00:51:36.480 --> 00:51:41.840
Korea I mean should look Afghanistan we left Afghanistan and knew that that's what exactly what

560
00:51:41.840 --> 00:51:46.960
the Taliban was going to do right but but so what's happening here is not north since 79 is not

561
00:51:46.960 --> 00:51:51.200
normal but but just to go back to one step for a second who do we know launch the missiles that

562
00:51:51.200 --> 00:51:56.400
kill the supreme leader and all the other um in the uh hierarchy the the I think the credit is going

563
00:51:56.400 --> 00:52:03.040
to the United States no no no the credit is going to Israel so so so Israel is the one that if

564
00:52:03.040 --> 00:52:08.000
essentially push the button pull the trigger what have you the US provided exactly in which case

565
00:52:08.000 --> 00:52:14.400
then does Israel have the prerogative to take out a head of state that was you know essentially

566
00:52:14.400 --> 00:52:18.880
the only nation state might I remind you that um came out in support of the October 7 attacks

567
00:52:19.440 --> 00:52:23.440
was only a run not even North Korea came out and said anything no one else did how many

568
00:52:23.440 --> 00:52:28.480
absolutely said this was you're just a need of that October 8th he directed Hezbollah to join the war

569
00:52:28.560 --> 00:52:33.920
therefore is he a fair is he a fair target for Israel it's a great question is he a combatant

570
00:52:33.920 --> 00:52:40.880
yeah if I if I can you have a state better if it authorizes funds motivates endorses and basically

571
00:52:40.880 --> 00:52:46.400
encourages and shoves out the door your attacker do you then have a right to go after them that's

572
00:52:46.400 --> 00:52:51.760
I think that's maybe that's the $10,000 question here okay because because if you are will if

573
00:52:51.760 --> 00:52:56.720
you're willing to see the the leader of every country as in as a combatant they are the heads

574
00:52:56.720 --> 00:53:01.600
of the military the president is the the commander in chief of the military if they are combatant

575
00:53:01.600 --> 00:53:06.000
they are a legal target so if they're legal target why is it against international law to attack

576
00:53:06.000 --> 00:53:11.360
head of state and even more what's the acceptable collateral damage because Israel is notorious

577
00:53:11.360 --> 00:53:16.080
for assassinations around the world it's it's what makes them so difficult for other people to

578
00:53:16.080 --> 00:53:22.640
ally with because we don't support assassinations and most assassinations are not legal combatants

579
00:53:22.640 --> 00:53:28.640
they're scientists that's a civilian their experts that's a civilian their heads of industry

580
00:53:28.640 --> 00:53:33.040
that's a civilian their generals but not in a hot conflict that makes them a non combatant the

581
00:53:33.040 --> 00:53:38.320
space is you're talking about the line between civilian and someone who works for the government

582
00:53:38.320 --> 00:53:42.880
or is on a government funded weapons program or something of that nature the those lines are blurred

583
00:53:42.880 --> 00:53:47.360
in the middle east we know those are blurred everywhere a civilian works for a company that's

584
00:53:47.360 --> 00:53:53.040
hired by the US military is that person a combatant okay but it but those distinctions are are

585
00:53:53.040 --> 00:53:58.160
far more subtle in the middle east and especially when you're a scientist working for a state

586
00:53:58.160 --> 00:54:03.440
nuclear program that you're being forced to work for because you're one of the few scientists that

587
00:54:03.440 --> 00:54:08.560
can do it I I don't know are they forced to work for I mean there are there are defectors there are

588
00:54:08.560 --> 00:54:13.440
those who who opt and then there are those who double down and become religious cheerleaders

589
00:54:13.440 --> 00:54:17.520
supporting what the government's doing I mean the point I'm making is that you saying it doesn't

590
00:54:17.520 --> 00:54:21.520
give you the international under international law the right to take out ahead of state what if

591
00:54:21.520 --> 00:54:26.960
it was self defense that's not what it was I have a counter narrative here just to throw it out and

592
00:54:26.960 --> 00:54:32.320
kind of switch up the the discussion here you know this administration is very interested in in

593
00:54:32.320 --> 00:54:42.080
social media and for that reason I am too and I look at I saw a me that was going around immediately

594
00:54:42.080 --> 00:54:49.840
after this decapitation event so quickly in fact it made me wonder like who pushed that out

595
00:54:49.840 --> 00:54:57.920
that quickly and it's a white sheet of paper with all the months of the year of 2026 and January

596
00:54:57.920 --> 00:55:04.480
there's a picture of Maduro February there's a picture of the Mexican quartel leader March one day

597
00:55:04.480 --> 00:55:09.520
off there's a picture of the supreme leader of Iran and then there's a question mark in the other

598
00:55:09.520 --> 00:55:19.680
months and it made me think and sort of wonder speculate is this messaging to Putin that he better

599
00:55:19.680 --> 00:55:24.960
start negotiating with Trump no Putin's a whole different beast what what that's a message to

600
00:55:24.960 --> 00:55:29.600
is the leader of Cuba yeah Cuba as I can say next and if you follow what the United States

601
00:55:30.400 --> 00:55:35.840
considers to be the four state sponsors of terrorism the only one that remains after Cuba

602
00:55:35.840 --> 00:55:40.880
is North Korea you know every once in a while you come across a product that has such a huge

603
00:55:40.880 --> 00:55:47.760
impact on your life that you'd probably describe it as a game changer and I would say for about

604
00:55:47.760 --> 00:55:54.320
35 to 40% of my team they would currently describe this product that I have in front of me called

605
00:55:54.320 --> 00:56:00.240
ketone IQ which you can get at ketone.com as a game changer but the reason I became a co-owner of

606
00:56:00.240 --> 00:56:04.800
this company and the reason why they they now are responsive to this podcast is because one day

607
00:56:04.800 --> 00:56:08.480
when I came to work there was a box of this stuff sat on my desk I had no idea what it was

608
00:56:08.480 --> 00:56:13.760
Lily in my team says that this company have been in touch so I went upstairs tried it and quite

609
00:56:13.760 --> 00:56:19.600
frankly the rest is history in terms of my focus my energy levels how I feel how I work how

610
00:56:19.600 --> 00:56:25.200
productive I am game changer so if you want to give it a try visit ketone.com slash Stephen for 30%

611
00:56:25.200 --> 00:56:30.960
off you'll also get a free gift with your second shipment and now you can find ketone IQ at target

612
00:56:30.960 --> 00:56:35.520
stores across the United States where your first shot is completely free of charge.

613
00:56:36.240 --> 00:56:39.600
This company that I've just invested in is growing like crazy I want to be the one to tell you

614
00:56:39.600 --> 00:56:42.880
about it because I think it's going to create such a huge productivity advantage for you this

615
00:56:42.880 --> 00:56:47.120
beflows an app that you can get on your computer and on your phone on all your devices and it

616
00:56:47.120 --> 00:56:50.960
allows you to speak to your technology so instead of me writing out an email I click one button on

617
00:56:50.960 --> 00:56:57.200
my phone and I can just speak the email into existence and it uses AI to clean up what I was saying

618
00:56:57.200 --> 00:57:01.040
and then what I'm done I just hit this one button here and the whole email is written for me

619
00:57:01.040 --> 00:57:06.960
and it's saving me so much time in a day because whisper learns how I write so on what's app it

620
00:57:06.960 --> 00:57:10.800
knows how I am a little bit more casual on email a little bit more professional and also there's

621
00:57:10.800 --> 00:57:14.800
this really interesting thing they've just done I can create little phrases to automatically do

622
00:57:14.800 --> 00:57:19.600
the work for me I can just say Jack's LinkedIn and it copies Jack's LinkedIn profile for me because it

623
00:57:19.600 --> 00:57:23.600
knows who Jack is in my life this is saving me a huge amount of time this company is growing like

624
00:57:23.600 --> 00:57:27.280
absolutely crazy and this is why I invested in the business and why they're now a splinter

625
00:57:27.280 --> 00:57:32.240
of this show and whisper flow is frankly becoming the worst kept secret in business productivity

626
00:57:32.240 --> 00:57:40.560
entrepreneurship check it out now at whisper flow spot w i s p r f l o w dot a i slash Stephen it

627
00:57:40.560 --> 00:57:46.160
will be a game change a few why does the us care about cuba what's the context there what what is the

628
00:57:46.160 --> 00:57:53.760
us want with cuba well cuba's 90 miles off the coast of florida for starters so geographically it's

629
00:57:53.760 --> 00:58:04.160
very dangerous cuba was where the Soviet Union put nuclear missiles there you know almost bringing

630
00:58:04.160 --> 00:58:08.160
the United States to the brink of nuclear war during the Kennedy administration it's one of

631
00:58:08.160 --> 00:58:12.000
the only countries in the western hemisphere that does not fall under the United States' sphere

632
00:58:12.640 --> 00:58:19.920
I actually saw this yesterday the Cuban government is talking with us they're in a big deal of

633
00:58:19.920 --> 00:58:25.680
trouble as you know they have no money they have no anything right now but they're talking with us

634
00:58:26.480 --> 00:58:33.840
and maybe we'll have a friendly takeover of cuba exactly so Trump says that maybe we'll

635
00:58:33.840 --> 00:58:40.560
have a friendly takeover of cuba and he said that two days ago took cuba's next and then North

636
00:58:40.640 --> 00:58:46.000
career they wouldn't North Korea have nuclear weapons they don't they any so yes they do I always

637
00:58:46.000 --> 00:58:50.080
wonder that actually does getting to a point where you have nuclear weapons kind of mean the US will

638
00:58:50.080 --> 00:58:55.840
leave you alone absolutely I think that part of all of this is the sort of elephant in the room is

639
00:58:56.560 --> 00:59:03.520
that you cannot you know the United States will not let anyone else join the nuclear nine

640
00:59:04.480 --> 00:59:10.960
North Korea was the last example of that mistake during the Clinton administration

641
00:59:11.520 --> 00:59:16.800
being told by the leader of North Korea oh no no we're not gonna have a nuclear program and then

642
00:59:17.440 --> 00:59:22.960
him not you know deciding by sort of committee and all his sage advisors and following

643
00:59:22.960 --> 00:59:27.680
and talking to Congress and all that we're not gonna attack North Korea that would be unacceptable

644
00:59:27.680 --> 00:59:34.560
that was the democratic president Clinton's position and as a result North Korea developed nuclear

645
00:59:34.560 --> 00:59:40.880
weapons and now has nuclear weapons and the nuclear weapons systems to strike the United States

646
00:59:40.880 --> 00:59:48.800
and has demonstrated you know a desire if provoked or actually has said if provoked it would do so

647
00:59:48.800 --> 00:59:55.360
and so you know you that was not going to happen with Iran certainly not on this watch

648
00:59:55.440 --> 01:00:00.560
and probably not on any watch is there a bit of an unspoken rule geopolitically where if you get

649
01:00:00.560 --> 01:00:04.880
to nuclear weapons you can do whatever the hell you want and it's the ultimate deterrence absolutely

650
01:00:04.880 --> 01:00:09.520
you can't mess with somebody who has a nuclear weapon and you and you and you don't one of my friends

651
01:00:09.520 --> 01:00:14.320
was asking me this morning where how the situation with Iran getting nuclear weapons is any different

652
01:00:14.320 --> 01:00:19.040
from the situation with North Korea having nuclear weapons or is it the same well it's the same

653
01:00:19.040 --> 01:00:24.080
thing it's only perhaps we're well now this regime is is it is up we don't know what will happen with

654
01:00:24.240 --> 01:00:32.080
it but having you know an ash correct me on this pronunciation you know the idea that the Shia

655
01:00:32.080 --> 01:00:39.040
idea that the sort of apocalyptic end is not necessarily a bad thing oh the arrival of the

656
01:00:39.040 --> 01:00:42.800
Matthew yes and and and and that'll think right sort of creating the conditions for that's

657
01:00:42.800 --> 01:00:50.240
how about yes there's a there's kind of a undergirding the Islamic regimes thinking is this idea

658
01:00:50.240 --> 01:00:55.440
and that's very dangerous to the idea that we don't want to have a nuclear war though that regime

659
01:00:55.440 --> 01:01:01.680
is not suicidal I I will sort of state that how many was was prepared to die for his cause but he

660
01:01:01.680 --> 01:01:06.720
is not suicidal in the sense that he would go out and sort of you know if you could I don't think

661
01:01:06.720 --> 01:01:12.240
start a nuclear war that he knew his country is going to get destroyed fighting that is I think

662
01:01:12.240 --> 01:01:16.880
you know one distinction and I'm not saying North Korea is suicidal but definitely what remains

663
01:01:16.880 --> 01:01:21.840
of the government there is not is not suicidal I don't think there is ideological die hards as we

664
01:01:21.840 --> 01:01:26.720
saw in the founding fathers of which how many was the last one so that changes a little bit now

665
01:01:26.720 --> 01:01:34.400
that he's dead you know there's a the philosopher Eric offer he sort of wrote that great causes start

666
01:01:34.400 --> 01:01:40.080
as movements then they become businesses then they become rackets okay so homani moos homani's

667
01:01:40.080 --> 01:01:44.720
movement that started the seventies that was the movement it became a business a enterprise of

668
01:01:44.720 --> 01:01:50.000
which the Islamic revolutionary guard corps profited immensely till it became a racket and now we're

669
01:01:50.000 --> 01:01:54.400
at the racket phase of it and the only one really left are the racketeering leaders you know and

670
01:01:54.400 --> 01:01:59.760
because the the spiritual leaders are now gone what happens next I think is sort of and you know

671
01:01:59.760 --> 01:02:04.800
we're now very much an unknown territory with that and you to that point of nuclear weapons if a

672
01:02:04.800 --> 01:02:08.560
Iran had already violated many of the things that said around nuclear weapons and then I think

673
01:02:08.560 --> 01:02:13.600
they'd have enriched uranium to 60% roughly they would have theoretically continued to go because they

674
01:02:13.600 --> 01:02:17.920
know that if you want the US and other people in the region stay away from you you've got to get

675
01:02:17.920 --> 01:02:22.960
nuclear weapons and once you get back to that point then you no one's going to mess with you so

676
01:02:22.960 --> 01:02:26.400
I think the assumption is that no one will mess with you with nuclear weapons I don't think that

677
01:02:26.400 --> 01:02:32.320
that is going to be the assumption for much longer I think that that Iran recognized that if it

678
01:02:32.320 --> 01:02:38.560
could get a path to a deployable nuclear capability whether it's a rocket or whether it's a missile

679
01:02:38.640 --> 01:02:45.040
or even if it's a truck with a newton trunk they had options 60% enrichment they have I mean

680
01:02:45.040 --> 01:02:49.280
that's a dirty bomb they have options there I mean with just nuclear waste they have options to

681
01:02:49.280 --> 01:02:57.760
cause real damage but enriched military grade sustainable kind of permanent state nuclear

682
01:02:57.760 --> 01:03:03.280
capabilities a much higher level of enrichment than that and that's arguably what they have in

683
01:03:03.280 --> 01:03:07.920
North Korea their deployability their capability for actually putting it on a rocket and having the

684
01:03:07.920 --> 01:03:10.720
rocket hit where it's supposed to hit not blow up on the launch pad is a little bit different

685
01:03:11.600 --> 01:03:16.720
and for that reason I think we have to take seriously the fact that if the United States wanted

686
01:03:16.720 --> 01:03:21.360
to demonstrate their power against the nuclear capable country they could do it against North

687
01:03:21.360 --> 01:03:26.800
Korea there's also this concept that our current military doctrine under Hegseth has applied that

688
01:03:26.800 --> 01:03:31.360
no other president has ever applied and no other Department of Defense Department of War has applied

689
01:03:31.440 --> 01:03:37.760
and that's this idea called burden sharing according to the Department of War their doctrine now

690
01:03:37.760 --> 01:03:42.720
is a doctrine of burden sharing which means they will force the burden of a national security

691
01:03:42.720 --> 01:03:49.920
interest on American allies an example is they go into Iran with a small naval force

692
01:03:50.720 --> 01:03:56.560
they bomb Iran knowing very well that Iran is going to spread the pain across our allies in the

693
01:03:56.560 --> 01:04:02.480
Middle East to the United States Department of War that is us that is our allies sharing the burden

694
01:04:02.480 --> 01:04:07.680
if they want to be our allies they have to do this same thing is happening with Ukraine and with

695
01:04:07.680 --> 01:04:13.840
Russia if you want if Europe if you want to counter Russia you must share the burden with the United

696
01:04:13.840 --> 01:04:19.520
States it also gives the United States now carte blanche to go anywhere it wants with a limited

697
01:04:19.520 --> 01:04:24.320
force stir up a hornet's nest and then let everybody else pay the price well in terms of the

698
01:04:24.320 --> 01:04:32.560
Middle East it certainly was an effective move because you know all of these six countries that

699
01:04:32.560 --> 01:04:41.600
Iran has now you know attacked in the past 48 hours are now very angry with Iran so the burden

700
01:04:41.600 --> 01:04:47.600
sharing has gone from kind of like this is a fight that you were not into this is a fight we are

701
01:04:48.400 --> 01:04:53.360
I don't think that anybody has taken any offensive actions against Iran except

702
01:04:53.360 --> 01:04:57.680
but they're not happy but they're not happy with they weren't happy before oh they but the

703
01:04:57.680 --> 01:05:01.920
the statements they put out are some of the strongest that we've seen I mean we've never even

704
01:05:01.920 --> 01:05:06.240
seen anything we've never seen the Gulf states put out what they've basically you know condemning

705
01:05:06.240 --> 01:05:10.320
Iran and holding it responsible it's now any pretense that there was a rapprochement there was

706
01:05:10.320 --> 01:05:15.440
some sort of a coming together is now shattered and that's a setback for whatever's left of

707
01:05:15.440 --> 01:05:21.440
the Islamic Republic the the power that Iran has over the Middle East is a power of agriculture

708
01:05:22.480 --> 01:05:26.000
all of the countries that we look at all the oil collegiate countries can't make their own food

709
01:05:26.000 --> 01:05:31.840
Iran makes their food so they've always had this weird relationship where they disagree with them

710
01:05:31.840 --> 01:05:36.160
politically they disagree with them religiously they disagree with them militarily but they're

711
01:05:36.160 --> 01:05:42.640
still allies because of food the United States has sanctions all over Russia except in one area

712
01:05:42.720 --> 01:05:49.120
space we still cooperate with Russia it's a carve out because we don't want to lose their access

713
01:05:49.120 --> 01:05:54.560
to the space program do you think we're closer to nuclear war now because of this action 100 percent

714
01:05:54.560 --> 01:05:58.560
so you do you think this is going to move just closer than 100 percent and and I've got

715
01:05:58.560 --> 01:06:04.320
there's proof of that all over the headlines today because France is deploying air launched nuclear

716
01:06:04.320 --> 01:06:11.120
warheads air launched nuclear warheads that means small warheads that fit on the ends of airplane

717
01:06:11.120 --> 01:06:16.160
rockets they're deploying them all over Europe that means France is now taking its nuclear

718
01:06:16.160 --> 01:06:21.840
arsenal and spreading it across its European allies the more nuclear proliferation the more risk

719
01:06:21.840 --> 01:06:26.880
of that's just nothing to do with the rain and that has nothing to do with the round what yeah

720
01:06:26.880 --> 01:06:33.120
that has nothing to do with Iran having two days after it has the threat of nuclear war comes

721
01:06:33.120 --> 01:06:39.360
from the conflict in my opinion comes from the conflict in Iran from the war in Ukraine and comes

722
01:06:39.440 --> 01:06:47.680
from Russia because you have an actual superpower president who has threatened the use of nuclear weapons

723
01:06:48.560 --> 01:06:54.320
Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon so it's it's not a nuclear threat you speak a different

724
01:06:54.320 --> 01:06:59.040
nuclear language than I do Russia is launching intercontinental ballistic missiles that can't be

725
01:06:59.040 --> 01:07:04.160
intercepted it's got the arrest Nick what the hell is it going to be afraid of a warhead on the

726
01:07:04.160 --> 01:07:10.000
tip of an airplane it's not that's a tactical nuke that's a battlefield but what is your point my

727
01:07:10.000 --> 01:07:16.240
point is that we the deployment of a nuclear weapon yeah is nuclear war the deployment of a nuclear

728
01:07:16.240 --> 01:07:20.880
weapon if you're talking about hang on mutually assured destruction are you talking about the use of

729
01:07:20.880 --> 01:07:25.840
a nuclear weapon are you talking about putting a warhead on an aircraft no that's that's been

730
01:07:25.840 --> 01:07:29.920
technology for a long time using it in the battle it's not being used in the battlefield I agree

731
01:07:30.000 --> 01:07:33.520
with you a thousand percent you don't think it's been you think it is being used no I'm saying it's

732
01:07:33.520 --> 01:07:38.320
being deployed is that getting us closer to nuclear war yes yes but yes but it's not but it's not

733
01:07:38.320 --> 01:07:41.520
because of Iran yeah there's nothing to do with Iran and what are you talking about being deployed

734
01:07:41.520 --> 01:07:48.000
because into you're talking about France maneuvering where its weaponry is that's the definition

735
01:07:48.000 --> 01:07:52.960
of a deployment that is well then we're talking about it I'm talking about nuclear use I mean

736
01:07:53.120 --> 01:08:02.240
the United States deploys its nuclear forces all the time by President Trump saying I'm moving

737
01:08:02.240 --> 01:08:10.320
our submarines which is just talk because they're moving anyways it's it's the same as it's

738
01:08:10.320 --> 01:08:17.600
threatening when Putin says I'm moving at my nuclear or when he tests you know Norway by popping

739
01:08:18.240 --> 01:08:23.680
up right offside outside of their shores those are maneuvers that are very dangerous I

740
01:08:23.680 --> 01:08:29.200
I absolutely agree I mean but in this particular case has the even from a Russian perspective

741
01:08:29.200 --> 01:08:35.440
has this war in Iran increase the probability that a Putin would use in my opinion absolutely not

742
01:08:35.440 --> 01:08:44.800
no in my opinion no in my opinion what it does to Putin is it makes him say wow this president

743
01:08:45.200 --> 01:08:56.320
is unpredictable and to some to an authoritarian person like Putin that's a match for him not someone

744
01:08:56.320 --> 01:09:04.640
for him to walk on and I think that I'm not I'm not saying that's a great way for world diplomacy

745
01:09:04.640 --> 01:09:12.160
whatsoever it's not diplomacy it's just you know it's just strong arming one another but but we are

746
01:09:12.560 --> 01:09:18.240
I do not feel at all that this situation makes us closer to a nuclear threat whatsoever

747
01:09:19.840 --> 01:09:25.360
I agree I think it's a combination of Ukraine and China's military exercises and action

748
01:09:25.360 --> 01:09:29.680
in the South China Sea and the whole sort of you know what we're not seeing there's this argument

749
01:09:29.680 --> 01:09:34.880
that China's watching what's going on with the US and Iran here we are depleting our interceptors

750
01:09:34.880 --> 01:09:40.720
our munitions China's meanwhile stockpiling you know it's resources and is it does this put us

751
01:09:40.800 --> 01:09:45.600
at a disadvantage if and when the day comes we're trying to decide to take proactive aggressive action

752
01:09:45.600 --> 01:09:50.240
vis-a-vis Taiwan that's something to think about and I think that then I'm worried about the risk of

753
01:09:50.240 --> 01:09:56.560
nuclear war in that instance I don't think Iran by itself in a vacuum is is moving the needle

754
01:09:56.560 --> 01:10:02.480
on that sort of nuclear risk meter to your point what this is a boon for is the defense contractor

755
01:10:02.480 --> 01:10:08.640
world is the military industrial complex because for example part of or why Iran is so weak

756
01:10:09.360 --> 01:10:15.680
is because they've used up so many ballistic missiles in their conflict with Israel

757
01:10:15.680 --> 01:10:21.200
I read today the interceptor to missile ratio something like 25 to 1 that the interceptors needed

758
01:10:21.200 --> 01:10:26.560
to to catch these ballistic missiles that Kuwait the UAE Israel is using they're like upwards of

759
01:10:26.560 --> 01:10:32.480
of 10 15 times more expensive yes and and these drones are relatively cheaply made these

760
01:10:32.480 --> 01:10:36.240
Shah had drones that they're using so you know there is that aspect of it too that Iran can just

761
01:10:36.880 --> 01:10:43.440
fire yes like a madman all these sort of expendable um munitions and meanwhile we're spending

762
01:10:43.440 --> 01:10:48.400
three four five ten times as much to intercept them yes although you do see in any kind of conflict

763
01:10:48.400 --> 01:10:53.600
like this you always see new weapons on the battle and and that's what happened now and America

764
01:10:53.600 --> 01:11:00.240
actually has been copying the Shahid drones these cheap we call them the Lucas these cheap systems

765
01:11:00.320 --> 01:11:08.000
that can just go in and you know cause havoc without precision and we deployed them so I think this

766
01:11:08.000 --> 01:11:12.640
was I think this is a long time I don't interrupt you see I think this is one of the big questions

767
01:11:12.640 --> 01:11:18.080
a lot of people are asking which is how long can Iran fight for in this war and what does that

768
01:11:18.080 --> 01:11:24.400
fight look like um that here in these jars you have I think it's the relative amount of soldiers

769
01:11:24.400 --> 01:11:28.000
that each country has obviously soldiers are just goes back to what Obama said about horses and

770
01:11:28.000 --> 01:11:35.520
bayonets the one form of combat but I was quite surprised at how big Iran's military is relative to

771
01:11:36.400 --> 01:11:41.680
even the US but other countries in the region I think they have the biggest military in the region

772
01:11:41.680 --> 01:11:47.040
is that correct so we have to separate between the IRGC and the national army they serve two

773
01:11:47.040 --> 01:11:51.760
different functions what are those two things the IRGC which any brought up earlier so the I

774
01:11:51.760 --> 01:11:56.800
stands for Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps not Iranian what does that mean it's protecting the

775
01:11:56.880 --> 01:12:02.000
Islamic Revolution it is an ideological army that sits outside of the main structures of power

776
01:12:02.000 --> 01:12:07.040
accountable only to the supreme leader the national army really goes through the office of the

777
01:12:07.040 --> 01:12:11.440
presidency and others and you know even though the supreme leader has a saying it but the the army's

778
01:12:11.440 --> 01:12:18.320
job is to protect Iran's borders the IRGC's job is to protect the revolution and the ideology and

779
01:12:18.320 --> 01:12:23.040
the proxies and everything else that we have come to know about Iran so if we look at the if we look

780
01:12:23.040 --> 01:12:27.600
at those if we look at what's in the jar we have to separate what the national army which is only

781
01:12:27.600 --> 01:12:32.960
its job is to defend the borders versus the ideological army I'm curious what that would look like

782
01:12:32.960 --> 01:12:37.600
if we took out the national army and are left with the ideological force Iran have the largest

783
01:12:37.600 --> 01:12:42.560
stockpull in the Middle East of missiles drones and air defenses possessing thousands of ballistic

784
01:12:42.560 --> 01:12:48.320
cruise missiles and kamikaze drones this is their primary offensive strength and they have

785
01:12:48.320 --> 01:12:52.320
quite a significant defense budget as well but I guess the question I'm trying to get out is like how

786
01:12:52.320 --> 01:12:56.160
long can they fight for and how does that fight look over time because I know they shot

787
01:12:56.160 --> 01:13:00.000
with this shot hundreds and hundreds of ballistic missiles over the weekend yeah Israel claims it

788
01:13:00.000 --> 01:13:05.120
in the in the July in the June war last year it eliminated about half of Iran what it believes

789
01:13:05.120 --> 01:13:10.240
to Iran's stockpiles but also batteries launchers basically capability so if you whatever it was let's

790
01:13:10.240 --> 01:13:16.720
say they have half of that left I've seen a statistics saying that really they can't go at this

791
01:13:16.720 --> 01:13:21.360
rate Iran for more than two to three weeks before they're completely depleted well there's also an

792
01:13:21.360 --> 01:13:26.560
interesting move that the United States does well we didn't kill the supreme leader what we did do

793
01:13:26.560 --> 01:13:33.360
was send our B2s to take out missile underground missile systems which Iran has which are the

794
01:13:33.360 --> 01:13:38.000
aircrafts right no they're underground they actually called them the B2s the B2s the B2s the

795
01:13:38.000 --> 01:13:39.760
B2s the B2s the B2s the B2s the B2s the B2s the B2s the B2s the B2s the B2s came from the United States

796
01:13:40.320 --> 01:13:47.520
and this is a considerable considerable damage because the two ways in which these sort of

797
01:13:47.520 --> 01:13:52.160
rogue nations whether it's North Korea around work their missiles is they have them on what are

798
01:13:52.160 --> 01:13:58.720
called road mobile launchers so that they cannot be tracked and targeted or they bury them deeply

799
01:13:58.720 --> 01:14:04.160
underground and one of the only things that can take out those deeply buried missile sites

800
01:14:04.160 --> 01:14:09.200
is a B2 and that's what the United States said so how do you how do you think this plays out

801
01:14:09.200 --> 01:14:12.560
over the coming weeks and months because at some point yeah they might run out of missiles but

802
01:14:12.560 --> 01:14:16.320
that doesn't necessarily mean the war is over yeah I'm presuming that the US don't want to throw

803
01:14:16.320 --> 01:14:23.200
soldiers on the ground in Iran either so what like how does this play out and how long and that's

804
01:14:23.200 --> 01:14:28.480
one of the major strategic errors that we made in attacking Iran they have the benefit of time

805
01:14:28.480 --> 01:14:34.720
not us they can choose how to react when to react in what way to react we don't know if they

806
01:14:34.720 --> 01:14:37.920
have a dirty bomb that they're finishing up in some underground bunker right now that's just

807
01:14:37.920 --> 01:14:41.920
going to sit there and wait until American boots on the ground show up the fact that you guys

808
01:14:41.920 --> 01:14:48.560
think that that current nuclear deployments have nothing to do with what's going on Iran it's I

809
01:14:49.440 --> 01:14:56.480
want to respect that opinion but to me it shows just a lack of military experience and actual

810
01:14:56.480 --> 01:15:04.000
strategic intent to kill like when you look at how military intelligence operators are trained to

811
01:15:04.000 --> 01:15:09.520
think we are trained to think through a lens of maximum damage Iran is thinking through the same

812
01:15:09.520 --> 01:15:13.680
window right now and they're watching what we just did in Afghanistan don't forget we killed

813
01:15:13.680 --> 01:15:20.960
Osama bin Laden who was an ideological figurehead about kaita in 2011 and didn't leave Afghanistan

814
01:15:20.960 --> 01:15:28.640
until 2022 when we were when we gave up that's another 11 years of war after the guy that we were

815
01:15:28.640 --> 01:15:35.760
supposed to kill to end the war how is Chameleon is different Chameleon is different but how different

816
01:15:35.840 --> 01:15:41.760
I don't know yet and what are we going to do the the new leadership in Iran what's it going to be

817
01:15:41.760 --> 01:15:45.840
is it going to be a leadership that that kautaus to the United States that kautaus who are it's

818
01:15:45.840 --> 01:15:49.120
Israel is going to be another shadow government like the Shah and we're going to play somebody else

819
01:15:49.120 --> 01:15:52.800
in the Iranian people are going to love it or are we leading a vacuum that China and Russia

820
01:15:52.800 --> 01:15:57.840
are going to step into and now we're going to we're going to see a strengthened Iran that's strengthened

821
01:15:57.840 --> 01:16:03.280
by our largest adversaries in the world this is the reality of what we've got to figure out because

822
01:16:03.840 --> 01:16:07.600
whether they launch all their rockets in the next two weeks that doesn't mean that's the end of

823
01:16:07.600 --> 01:16:11.840
the fight for all we know it's going to come back and bite us in six months when some hezbollah

824
01:16:12.560 --> 01:16:19.280
sell lights new york on fire we don't know but when it happens arguably it's going to be justified

825
01:16:19.920 --> 01:16:26.160
to address point iran can wage war of attrition it's harder a war of attrition is basically low level

826
01:16:26.160 --> 01:16:31.040
warfare think of like death by a thousand cuts right i'll just keep poking at you enough to

827
01:16:31.040 --> 01:16:36.640
eventually wear you down destabilize you weaken you whereas what you can do is massive retaliation

828
01:16:36.640 --> 01:16:41.840
and these big sort of you know theatrical strikes war of attrition is basically grinding for the

829
01:16:41.840 --> 01:16:46.960
long haul and wearing you down this is something that to his point iran is capable of doing and

830
01:16:46.960 --> 01:16:51.520
is probably willing to do and sees is the only way that it can survive this is the war of attrition

831
01:16:51.520 --> 01:16:56.960
the war it's it's it's whatever remnant is left it's how Russia has survived so long it's war of

832
01:16:56.960 --> 01:17:00.640
attrition but but like i'm like who's the late do you need leader yeah or is it just lots of

833
01:17:00.640 --> 01:17:06.960
different pockets of people time will tell and you know hezbollah sort of sells around the world will

834
01:17:06.960 --> 01:17:13.040
tell us what happens but i think another way of looking at it i saw a a former member of the

835
01:17:13.040 --> 01:17:21.200
national security council commenting that like yes sells could be activated in america or they could

836
01:17:21.200 --> 01:17:27.600
just fade away and this is where i don't have a crystal ball and i'm just observing what's

837
01:17:27.600 --> 01:17:34.240
happening but i do think that the that all of this hangs on the razor's edge of public opinion

838
01:17:34.880 --> 01:17:41.760
because you know we time will tell whether or not this regime falls whether what you're saying

839
01:17:41.760 --> 01:17:46.720
if it's either or but i don't i don't think that we i don't think that we can know i just

840
01:17:46.800 --> 01:17:51.040
we've been here before to some degree too many times too many times what is the lesson from history

841
01:17:51.040 --> 01:17:55.680
that everyone seems to have forgotten that we are shitty learners of history that's what the

842
01:17:55.680 --> 01:17:59.600
lesson to your point of you know who the leadership would be something else that that philosopher

843
01:17:59.600 --> 01:18:04.080
quoted Eric offer had said that you know mass movements they don't need a god but they do need a

844
01:18:04.080 --> 01:18:10.880
devil so to that effect the leader doesn't matter as much as having an enemy does that is the so

845
01:18:10.880 --> 01:18:15.760
basically so long as we the United States or the western world is framed as the enemy that is

846
01:18:15.760 --> 01:18:21.600
enough to keep a war of attrition going absent any figurehead or charismatic leader and he was a

847
01:18:21.600 --> 01:18:28.080
religious figure versus just a political figure he was a religious figure but to your point he was

848
01:18:28.080 --> 01:18:32.960
the racketeer at the end yeah i mean he was running i made it effectively yeah and everyone in

849
01:18:32.960 --> 01:18:37.440
most people yeah absolutely thousands of people have gathered in public squares and terrain

850
01:18:37.440 --> 01:18:42.400
to openly weep and mourn his death to roughly 20% of the population are staunch ideological supporters

851
01:18:42.400 --> 01:18:47.760
of him yeah 20% yeah yeah yeah and it's interesting because you one can imagine that that 20%

852
01:18:47.760 --> 01:18:54.000
might grow especially if the the coming months make their lives worse in some way they experience

853
01:18:54.000 --> 01:18:59.200
I don't know poverty or whatever else and and then you know friends die because of this war

854
01:18:59.200 --> 01:19:03.440
it doesn't take long for narrative to turn and so that's what everyone's been warning about

855
01:19:03.440 --> 01:19:07.200
that you strike Iran this was a warning last June you strike Iran you're going to get rally

856
01:19:07.200 --> 01:19:10.640
around the flag the people that are secularists now are going to turn and they're going to start

857
01:19:10.640 --> 01:19:14.880
supporting the regime and we're going to set back the cause of let's say freedom or democracy

858
01:19:14.880 --> 01:19:20.560
it didn't happen it turns out that basically the people in Iran blamed the regime for their own

859
01:19:20.560 --> 01:19:26.480
for the misery that was that was put upon them and so I think that 20% will get even smaller as a result

860
01:19:26.480 --> 01:19:30.480
not just of this it would have gotten smaller anyway as a result of this I think it'll get

861
01:19:30.480 --> 01:19:35.760
even smaller still because their salvation is not at the end you know of a of a of a turbine or a

862
01:19:35.760 --> 01:19:40.160
robe it basically comes with liberty and freedom that this government this regime won't give

863
01:19:40.160 --> 01:19:46.720
them and so that is I think evident now to the 80% of Iranians all of whom of that mean that you know 80

864
01:19:46.720 --> 01:19:51.840
80% of the population is born after 79 they don't know the old regime all they know is this one

865
01:19:51.840 --> 01:19:55.280
and what they know is they don't like it they don't like living under it and they want anything

866
01:19:55.280 --> 01:19:59.920
other than what this is you feel differently I think that that's an overly idealistic way of

867
01:19:59.920 --> 01:20:05.520
thinking about it we failed to convert Iraq when we took out Saddam Hussein we failed to to convert

868
01:20:05.520 --> 01:20:10.400
Afghanistan when we took out the Taliban Iran is not Iraq and Afghanistan though it is not I'm not

869
01:20:10.400 --> 01:20:15.120
saying it's the same I'm saying that when you when you change a government from the top down

870
01:20:15.600 --> 01:20:19.200
that doesn't do anything for the people no one's changing it there's no nation building we're

871
01:20:19.200 --> 01:20:23.680
not going in to do it in Iraq so what's gonna build it so what's gonna build it what's gonna change

872
01:20:23.680 --> 01:20:29.120
it the people the people that have been slaves for basically the last what 40 50 years the people

873
01:20:29.120 --> 01:20:32.320
who have had no education the people who've been marginalized you think they're just gonna

874
01:20:32.320 --> 01:20:37.280
understand there's kind of organize them so I know we educated very very highly I mean it's one

875
01:20:37.280 --> 01:20:42.480
of the most educated populaces in the world and I have and and they are very the the people that are

876
01:20:42.480 --> 01:20:47.440
not regime supporters are very western thinking I mean we see this we see this in in the culture they

877
01:20:47.440 --> 01:20:52.320
produce the media they produce when they go and they speak around the world so the populace is there

878
01:20:52.320 --> 01:20:58.000
the capabilities there the will is there all they need is basically not to be you know not to be

879
01:20:58.000 --> 01:21:02.880
facing the barrel of a gear about to find out if that's true and that is what that is what we

880
01:21:02.880 --> 01:21:07.840
are all writing on right now is whether this is intellectual minority in a poverty stricken

881
01:21:07.840 --> 01:21:13.520
economically defunct country is gonna even fucking stay there or whether they're gonna take their

882
01:21:13.520 --> 01:21:18.480
brains and their success and their opportunities somewhere else the diaspora and everything we're

883
01:21:18.480 --> 01:21:23.280
hearing says they are the people are cannot wait to help rebuild the country why do you trust what

884
01:21:24.240 --> 01:21:30.160
well his family is there so he's probably he's probably the worst the worst the people that you

885
01:21:30.160 --> 01:21:34.960
have a personal relationship with they're the least objective people that you can talk to so who

886
01:21:34.960 --> 01:21:39.840
are there 80% of the population who do you talk to exactly who do you trust you can't trust

887
01:21:39.840 --> 01:21:42.880
anything that you're hearing right now you can't trust anything that you're reading right now

888
01:21:42.880 --> 01:21:48.640
the information landscape is too to move that's I'm not sure somebody right it's not paranoid

889
01:21:48.640 --> 01:21:55.200
that's healthy it is absolutely paranoid to suggest that everything is misinformation one

890
01:21:55.200 --> 01:22:00.720
would believe at least I certainly believe that I have a faculty up here to be able to take

891
01:22:00.720 --> 01:22:08.160
information and try and discern what might be information and what isn't and then also be

892
01:22:08.160 --> 01:22:13.440
willing to stand corrected that's a very important part of it and that goes back to my tribal

893
01:22:13.440 --> 01:22:18.960
problem is once you have a horse in the race and you become convinced and I am hearing a little

894
01:22:18.960 --> 01:22:26.480
convincedness from you that you know then I believe you lose your ability to be able to go oh wow

895
01:22:26.480 --> 01:22:32.400
maybe I was wrong maybe this and again I'm not condoning what the administration did whatsoever

896
01:22:32.400 --> 01:22:40.880
I'm just listening to Benjamin and saying that is to my eye a much better source I'm journalist

897
01:22:41.120 --> 01:22:46.560
I'm going to listen to what people on the ground are saying they're certainly family members

898
01:22:46.560 --> 01:22:54.400
because their opinion is going to be legitimately you know heartfelt and not propaganda again

899
01:22:54.400 --> 01:23:00.640
we speak a completely different language when you talk to me about opinion heartfelt and family

900
01:23:01.600 --> 01:23:07.120
and belief none of those are objective no those are billions are born on those things by the way

901
01:23:07.120 --> 01:23:13.040
I agree yeah and and that doesn't make it objectively correct it was a rebellion that ended

902
01:23:13.040 --> 01:23:18.400
up in the Iran that we just saw fall apart that was a revolution that was a rebellion and you

903
01:23:18.400 --> 01:23:23.040
where does your skepticism come from what's it rooted in because you did spend almost a decade

904
01:23:23.040 --> 01:23:28.160
as an undercover spy for the United States in the CIA where where is the skepticism coming from

905
01:23:28.160 --> 01:23:31.520
why shouldn't we believe people on the ground who are saying what they're saying I've seen this

906
01:23:31.520 --> 01:23:36.640
stuff firsthand I've been trained in how this stuff works I've had to deploy this in in pursuit

907
01:23:36.640 --> 01:23:42.800
of American goals and ambitions in the past and and what's your saying isn't inaccurate

908
01:23:43.920 --> 01:23:50.000
as to how people react people we just trust the opinion of the people that we trust the opinion

909
01:23:50.000 --> 01:23:56.640
of the people we trust more than we trust the opinion of others only because it's our opinion

910
01:23:56.640 --> 01:24:01.200
that they're trustworthy at all so who do you trust to get your information from I want to take

911
01:24:01.200 --> 01:24:07.600
my information from as as far opposite sources as possible and then see where the information

912
01:24:08.800 --> 01:24:13.760
confirms itself where it correlates because if you if you see anti-American people saying the

913
01:24:13.760 --> 01:24:19.280
same thing as anti-Iranian people where their messages are the same has corroboration the number

914
01:24:19.280 --> 01:24:23.520
of dead leaders as an example this that's a corroborative point because you're hearing both the

915
01:24:23.520 --> 01:24:29.120
Iranian state media say that and pro-U.S. Western forces talk about it but what if it's your point

916
01:24:29.120 --> 01:24:33.200
of black box and you can't get information from the sources you're used to getting well that's

917
01:24:33.200 --> 01:24:38.880
it's that's exactly right it is a black box so if we know it's a black box we have to question

918
01:24:38.880 --> 01:24:42.080
every source that comes out every piece of information that comes out what we're seeing a lot of

919
01:24:42.080 --> 01:24:46.800
right now with Iran is called circular reporting it's one single source of information that comes

920
01:24:46.800 --> 01:24:51.520
out that gets multiplied over and over again we're seeing it happen in the White House too because

921
01:24:51.520 --> 01:24:56.400
the White House has kicked out so many journalistic legacy media outlets so now one story gets

922
01:24:56.400 --> 01:25:00.720
multiplied over and over again and we're seeing stuff that's that's repeated I have to say something

923
01:25:00.720 --> 01:25:05.360
I am I am a little bit skeptical about what is true I'm like the furthest from ever being a

924
01:25:05.360 --> 01:25:11.040
conspiracy theorist but a little bit skeptical of what's true because I did a post about this

925
01:25:11.040 --> 01:25:14.800
subject and obviously I've spent 15 years in social media so our whole business was building

926
01:25:14.800 --> 01:25:20.320
scaling huge social media ordinances and what I received in my DMs was like I've never seen before

927
01:25:20.400 --> 01:25:26.400
about what I've heard people talking about bots for decades and most of the time that they're

928
01:25:26.400 --> 01:25:30.960
actually the wrong it's something else going on with the algorithm or maybe something they don't

929
01:25:30.960 --> 01:25:37.920
like they saw so they call it a bot I received thousands and thousands and thousands of DMs when

930
01:25:37.920 --> 01:25:42.000
I posted about this subject matter and some of those accounts when you go on the page and you look

931
01:25:42.000 --> 01:25:45.920
at their posting history their engagement you look at certain patterns which we've built tools

932
01:25:46.000 --> 01:25:51.040
before to kind of spot some of these accounts on real and I say to my friends I was like well

933
01:25:51.040 --> 01:25:55.520
they're like I posted about this issue and then I had thousands and thousands and thousands of

934
01:25:55.520 --> 01:26:01.360
these accounts DM me encouraging me to post more about certain things first time in my life

935
01:26:01.360 --> 01:26:06.480
ever I go oh that was definitely it was so it's an influence operation just so what were they

936
01:26:06.480 --> 01:26:12.320
what were these bots pushing you to post on unconscious whether I should say or not because I don't

937
01:26:12.320 --> 01:26:19.120
want to infer by doing so you're I'm like inferring that a particular but I'm just saying I've never

938
01:26:19.120 --> 01:26:23.680
felt what I experienced then and I have I mean every this trailer will come out we'll see loads of

939
01:26:23.680 --> 01:26:28.720
bots we have systems but this was in my DMs it was encouraging someone like me who has a big platform

940
01:26:28.720 --> 01:26:32.960
to push aside narrative and that the only reason I noticed is because of the sheer volume

941
01:26:32.960 --> 01:26:39.680
and then the narrative was almost identical and I think well 1,700 different accounts of all

942
01:26:39.680 --> 01:26:43.920
over and asking me to do the same so you have final control over the edit of this yeah so there's

943
01:26:43.920 --> 01:26:48.720
no if you don't if you don't want what you say to get edit to get to get aired but then it'll get

944
01:26:48.720 --> 01:26:53.440
cut but one way or the other whatever you say like I want you to say what you saw because

945
01:26:53.440 --> 01:26:58.880
if the narrative was anti-Iran then you were attacked by western forces western bots attacking

946
01:26:58.880 --> 01:27:06.480
a known westerner if you were if you were propped up by pro-Iranian cyber bots then now you're

947
01:27:06.480 --> 01:27:10.080
talking about a cyber capacity a cyber capability in Iran that nobody's talking about

948
01:27:10.080 --> 01:27:14.240
so one way or the other or maybe an ally or someone else or whatever it might be I don't know but

949
01:27:14.240 --> 01:27:19.360
I just it made what it's that my point was that it's made me skeptical about my own information

950
01:27:19.360 --> 01:27:26.720
chamber and I'll be honest before I've realized what was going on very persuasive very persuasive

951
01:27:26.720 --> 01:27:30.240
you were persuaded by the bots before you realized they were nice things to you and then they're

952
01:27:30.240 --> 01:27:35.040
encouraging you to continue to to push aside narrative and it just took it took me a second

953
01:27:35.120 --> 01:27:39.200
pause and thought actually maybe wouldn't that be a perfect strategy in these moments to get

954
01:27:39.200 --> 01:27:44.080
people who have big platforms to just bump on their DMs and tell them that you know like why aren't

955
01:27:44.080 --> 01:27:50.400
you standing up for us and please use your voice to to speak on this particular issue and I thought

956
01:27:50.400 --> 01:27:54.800
actually maybe I need I need my information from somewhere else well I think the point that you're

957
01:27:54.800 --> 01:28:01.280
making which is very important it has to do with you know mimetics or popularity in other words

958
01:28:02.240 --> 01:28:07.200
what we don't know the outcome of this situation yet we don't know if the Hezbollah sleeper

959
01:28:07.200 --> 01:28:14.880
cells will be activated are they waiting to see whether what they do will be welcomed or will be

960
01:28:14.880 --> 01:28:23.760
demonized and I think that there's an profound influence in social media and that isn't true in

961
01:28:23.760 --> 01:28:30.640
this administration and previous administrations about the rise of pushing public opinion I mean

962
01:28:30.640 --> 01:28:35.920
that to your point that's what you worked on at the agency or you at least saw happen the fact

963
01:28:35.920 --> 01:28:42.320
is I'm glad that you're seeing it for yourself you can't trust what you see first of all if you're

964
01:28:42.320 --> 01:28:46.560
a single language person you only see what's in your language you don't see what's in a different

965
01:28:46.560 --> 01:28:52.160
language and then we all have an echo chamber around us and the the the fact that we have so much

966
01:28:52.160 --> 01:28:57.680
technology just amplifies our echo chamber our our algorithm sees what we see it sees what we like

967
01:28:57.680 --> 01:29:03.040
it sees what we pause longer on than something else and it gives us more of that and people become

968
01:29:03.040 --> 01:29:08.320
very wealthy and very successful understanding the behavior that people prefer and you give people

969
01:29:08.320 --> 01:29:12.800
more of what they already prefer and then it makes them happier and they don't even realize they're

970
01:29:12.800 --> 01:29:17.760
sitting inside of an echo chamber so for all of these reasons I don't trust the information I see

971
01:29:17.760 --> 01:29:23.040
I don't trust information unless multiple sources of conflicting values and conflicting priorities

972
01:29:23.040 --> 01:29:27.360
of conflicting goals where they say the same thing I'll give that more credence and if you can't

973
01:29:27.360 --> 01:29:32.480
get those sources because information then you can't have a conclusion so you can have a living

974
01:29:32.480 --> 01:29:37.680
assessment so do you not operate if you're a foreign policy decision maker if you're a president

975
01:29:37.680 --> 01:29:41.920
if you're a national security advisor you have to give advice and consent you have to figure out

976
01:29:41.920 --> 01:29:47.200
something you can say I have a lack of evidence or I have a lack of opinion or lack of information

977
01:29:47.280 --> 01:29:52.560
and therefore because they can't cooperate or verify there's no Venn diagram of I'm overlapping

978
01:29:52.560 --> 01:29:58.320
views that's when you have you have to use time as a tool you have to use time to to be the tool

979
01:29:58.320 --> 01:30:03.600
that you use to collect more information if you if you give up time you give up one of your most

980
01:30:03.600 --> 01:30:08.560
important tools which is what we're giving up with this attack we're giving up time so that we can

981
01:30:08.560 --> 01:30:15.920
potentially just fit a calendar January February March like that's why what what did we actually

982
01:30:15.920 --> 01:30:22.960
gain what how did the United States actually tangibly benefit from what just happened in Iran if

983
01:30:22.960 --> 01:30:28.080
in the United States how did we if in four months from now before the midterm elections there is

984
01:30:28.080 --> 01:30:33.600
new leadership in Iran entirely new if there is regime change in other words if there is by the

985
01:30:33.600 --> 01:30:39.280
president's own metrics victory okay will you change your tune on this the school of what did we

986
01:30:39.280 --> 01:30:43.840
gain what if it's not evident right now what if it is in four months I mean yeah it's a living

987
01:30:43.840 --> 01:30:48.400
assessment so of course if for all for all we know the president's decision is going to work out

988
01:30:48.400 --> 01:30:52.080
but for all we know it's going to get worse for all we know it won't be four months it'll be four

989
01:30:52.080 --> 01:30:58.080
years right of of of a drought and poverty-stricken in Iranians dying civilians dying because they

990
01:30:58.080 --> 01:31:03.040
can't find food and water the 79 revolution took two years to happen really began late 77 and then

991
01:31:03.040 --> 01:31:07.840
you had a sort of reign of terror almost like the you know thermidorian robes PR period in early

992
01:31:07.840 --> 01:31:13.600
Iranian in the early 80s where it took really four or five years for all the dust to settle but

993
01:31:13.600 --> 01:31:20.240
but so the question is do you want where are my results right it's only what are we gaining what do

994
01:31:20.240 --> 01:31:23.920
we even think we're going to gain what does what does the United States think it's going to gain

995
01:31:24.720 --> 01:31:29.920
from from decapitating the Iranian leadership that that's kind of obvious based on what the president

996
01:31:29.920 --> 01:31:33.840
has said it's that on what the president has said I'm just saying based on what the president says

997
01:31:33.840 --> 01:31:39.200
I'm not but if you ask what the point was according to the president because he's the one who

998
01:31:39.200 --> 01:31:47.280
authorized the operation it was putting an end to Iran's nuclear program and regime change I

999
01:31:47.280 --> 01:31:52.480
mean based on off of what the president said the nuclear program was obliterated in June of last

1000
01:31:52.480 --> 01:31:56.880
year but there's a time so reconstituted they were looking to rebuild these easily here satellite

1001
01:31:56.880 --> 01:32:02.880
footage of this why are you why are you disregarding previous narratives to adopt the current narrative

1002
01:32:02.880 --> 01:32:06.960
because if I've learned nothing from 79 is that the previous narratives were wrong the

1003
01:32:06.960 --> 01:32:11.840
assessments were wrong so I don't trust the assessments either but there's satellite imagery that

1004
01:32:11.840 --> 01:32:17.360
shows oh there's reconstruction happening at Esfahan or Natanz or wherever we can see trucks

1005
01:32:17.360 --> 01:32:24.160
maybe we can see buildings coming up right they don't have something to say it's impossible to say

1006
01:32:24.240 --> 01:32:33.600
see it's impossible to to practically say no no no Iran didn't want a nuclear weapon they just

1007
01:32:33.600 --> 01:32:40.160
wanted to have electric power I mean nuclear power you know that's that's not that's not really

1008
01:32:40.160 --> 01:32:47.120
not a plausible assessment that's what the OD and I put into their official report how

1009
01:32:47.120 --> 01:32:50.640
does you explain that they're going beyond 20% enrichment then why are they doing that and

1010
01:32:50.640 --> 01:32:55.440
they don't need more than 20% so why so and it's and it's Iraq it was a racket it is a racket

1011
01:32:55.440 --> 01:32:59.600
and we're talking about Tulsi Gabbard as a head of DNI which exactly exactly which is a great point

1012
01:32:59.600 --> 01:33:04.960
and because she is a Trump supporter well you have not heard from her are you are we not Tulsi

1013
01:33:04.960 --> 01:33:09.840
Gabbard has been a lot of things in her career yeah but do you do you think there was any risk of

1014
01:33:09.840 --> 01:33:13.440
Iran developing you you ran him to the point that they could use that as a nuclear weapon because

1015
01:33:13.440 --> 01:33:16.880
if you look at the timeline here of course um which I'll throw up on screen which is just a

1016
01:33:16.880 --> 01:33:22.480
screenshot by 2021 there were a dangerous threshold around begins enriching uranium to 60%

1017
01:33:22.480 --> 01:33:28.400
purity which is a short technical step away from the 90% needed for a weapon and by 2023 to 2025

1018
01:33:28.400 --> 01:33:34.880
we were told that they were theoretically weeks away from being able to create a weapon which is when

1019
01:33:34.880 --> 01:33:40.000
Trump decided to attack you think that's false we only know what we're being told and what we're

1020
01:33:40.000 --> 01:33:44.560
being told isn't even consistent between what's publicly being released by our own government

1021
01:33:44.560 --> 01:33:48.720
and what we're being told in mainstream media so what you think is the and there's clearly

1022
01:33:48.720 --> 01:33:54.320
you have it is it false I don't know I don't know if it's well just look at North Korea if you

1023
01:33:54.320 --> 01:33:58.000
want to know if it's false I mean I interviewed Bill Perry the Secretary of Defense who went there

1024
01:33:58.000 --> 01:34:02.800
and got the guarantee and the promise from the dear leader there was no chance they were going to

1025
01:34:02.800 --> 01:34:08.960
develop a nuclear weapon fingers crossed behind the back thermo nuclear weapon and look where we

1026
01:34:08.960 --> 01:34:16.240
are now and so I think it would be foolhardy for this administration or any former administration

1027
01:34:16.240 --> 01:34:20.880
to think that that Iran wasn't doing the same thing it has every incentive to do it if I were

1028
01:34:20.880 --> 01:34:26.160
right I would absolutely you know absolutely build one because look what it did for North Korea

1029
01:34:26.160 --> 01:34:31.840
we're getting lost in the wrong question I'm not trying to say that Iran wasn't creating nuclear

1030
01:34:31.840 --> 01:34:36.800
weapons I'm saying that the official stance of the ODNI was that it was not the official sense they

1031
01:34:36.800 --> 01:34:41.440
want you to see to go to it right now we're getting now we're getting to your point like now we're

1032
01:34:41.440 --> 01:34:45.360
getting closer to the same point right why would the president say something different than what the

1033
01:34:45.360 --> 01:34:51.040
ODNI is saying to the public that is a failure in narrative control so there's an inconsistency there

1034
01:34:51.040 --> 01:34:55.520
and that's the question we agree on that we absolutely agree on that yeah so what you think is

1035
01:34:55.520 --> 01:34:58.960
actually going on I asked you this at the top but clearly you're pointing at some some sort of

1036
01:34:58.960 --> 01:35:05.920
alternative so I think what's happening here is that we are seeing an administration that

1037
01:35:06.720 --> 01:35:14.080
doesn't actually know how to govern and they're they're trying to find a way to grapple back some

1038
01:35:14.080 --> 01:35:21.360
sense of success in the face of overwhelming contributing failures economic failures

1039
01:35:21.360 --> 01:35:26.720
out alliance failures power struggles all over the world we are we are seeing a transition to a

1040
01:35:26.720 --> 01:35:34.560
strong man multi polar world what's the strong man multi polar world it's what she was just

1041
01:35:34.560 --> 01:35:40.560
talking about with Putin and Russia right you when you act in strong authoritarian ways and people

1042
01:35:40.560 --> 01:35:46.000
respect your authoritarian behaviors by giving you safety and giving you security then that's

1043
01:35:46.000 --> 01:35:50.000
strong man diplomacy and why does that matter what happens next because that's not cooperative

1044
01:35:50.000 --> 01:35:54.000
that creates conflict that creates more opportunities for conflict less opportunities for

1045
01:35:54.080 --> 01:35:59.440
communication less shared common interest which is a pathway to more what we call

1046
01:35:59.440 --> 01:36:03.840
interstate war which is conflict between states because they're not communicating they're not

1047
01:36:03.840 --> 01:36:09.360
sharing they're not even reliant on each other therefore it's easier for war to break out I have a

1048
01:36:09.360 --> 01:36:16.320
sort of pessimistic thought here which is an alternative to that what was you know what was

1049
01:36:16.320 --> 01:36:21.760
happening in Iran right now which is what would happen what could happen and what might happen

1050
01:36:21.760 --> 01:36:27.200
in the United States and to your point that where you said this administration doesn't know how to

1051
01:36:27.200 --> 01:36:32.240
govern I would separate from that whether that's true or not I would say this administration

1052
01:36:32.880 --> 01:36:41.200
thinks very futuristically about surveillance systems and systems of control and you can see

1053
01:36:41.200 --> 01:36:48.880
that with ice and with homeland security and my concern would be that red teaming or round

1054
01:36:48.880 --> 01:36:54.400
tabling all the different possible blowback well what if we have Hezbollah sleeper cells

1055
01:36:55.040 --> 01:36:58.880
you know set off a dirty mom in the United States or do something that that is

1056
01:37:00.080 --> 01:37:07.280
in the eyes of some a perfect opportunity to create more of a surveillance state in the United

1057
01:37:07.280 --> 01:37:15.600
States to use biometric surveillance platforms ISR against United States citizens because it's

1058
01:37:15.600 --> 01:37:23.120
the only way to control people and to to really know where the bad guys are and that is a concern

1059
01:37:23.120 --> 01:37:27.200
of so you can you can you be a bit more explicitly clear that so you're saying that

1060
01:37:28.080 --> 01:37:33.280
well that you you in other words bio sort of I always just look at things because I

1061
01:37:34.160 --> 01:37:38.960
consider weapon systems a lot and understand where we have come from you know nuclear weapons

1062
01:37:38.960 --> 01:37:45.200
are the weapons of the past surveillance systems are the weapons of the present and drones

1063
01:37:45.200 --> 01:37:50.160
what's the weapon systems of the future I mean you're there's a serious motivation you can just

1064
01:37:50.160 --> 01:37:54.640
look at what happened with anthropic and open AI in the defense department the day before all

1065
01:37:54.640 --> 01:37:59.600
of this went down so you're saying they're using this as a way to introduce surveillance mechanisms

1066
01:37:59.600 --> 01:38:06.240
potentially on United States and I'm I'm not saying that per se I'm saying one hypothetical scenario

1067
01:38:06.240 --> 01:38:12.240
that I can see is red teaming a bad outcome is not necessarily a bad outcome like if there were a

1068
01:38:12.240 --> 01:38:19.840
problem in the United States as a result of this we could counter that with legitimate reasons for

1069
01:38:19.840 --> 01:38:25.680
more surveillance systems do you think people sit around and say that I know they do really I mean

1070
01:38:25.680 --> 01:38:29.360
I don't think you can ever forget that the Department of Homeland Security which by the way was

1071
01:38:29.360 --> 01:38:35.200
like the big issue in the United States you know just a couple weeks ago ICE DHS Department of

1072
01:38:35.200 --> 01:38:41.600
Homeland Security for those of the younger generation did not exist before 9-11 it was an

1073
01:38:41.600 --> 01:38:48.560
absolute byproduct of America being attacked so you're thinking that this Iranian situation could

1074
01:38:48.560 --> 01:38:55.040
give them cover to track and surveil U.S. citizens more it would create a justification I would

1075
01:38:55.040 --> 01:39:02.320
change the word from cover to opportunity because I do think that's the way the systems work inside

1076
01:39:02.320 --> 01:39:10.960
the you know executive branch and I think that there is a always an extremely powerful

1077
01:39:11.840 --> 01:39:18.800
hidden hand that has to do with weapons developers and this sets us up for a false dichotomy it's

1078
01:39:18.800 --> 01:39:24.960
basically you could have security or liberty you can't have both so which one do you want

1079
01:39:26.240 --> 01:39:30.880
you're biting your tongue in there a little bit no he's 100% right and and the the the

1080
01:39:30.880 --> 01:39:35.520
consternation that I'm feeling about this whole situation is really tied to the fact that we had

1081
01:39:35.520 --> 01:39:44.960
a chance to not exacerbate the security situation of our planet by just not attacking Iran we could

1082
01:39:44.960 --> 01:39:50.240
have not exacerbated the security conflict for every other country only Iran was struggling with

1083
01:39:50.240 --> 01:39:56.160
their own decision about what they were going to do with themselves now we have put dozens of

1084
01:39:56.160 --> 01:40:02.160
countries at risk active current risk near term risk there are people dead today that would not

1085
01:40:02.160 --> 01:40:08.000
have been dead have we not sent bombs into Iran there's been property damage their markets damaged

1086
01:40:08.000 --> 01:40:12.400
there are life height like livelihoods are being damaged there are 30,000 dead today who wouldn't

1087
01:40:12.400 --> 01:40:17.200
have been dead if we'd done this in 1980 you're never going to hear me say yeah that I really care

1088
01:40:17.200 --> 01:40:23.200
that much about an Iranian life compared to an American life that's just not how I roll this is my

1089
01:40:23.200 --> 01:40:28.400
priority this is my citizenship I don't begrudge you that by the way I totally and it's not that my

1090
01:40:28.400 --> 01:40:32.320
loyalty is elsewhere but I'm saying you're not saying there are people that are dead you're talking

1091
01:40:32.320 --> 01:40:36.000
about the four Americans you're talking about Arab citizens like the various

1092
01:40:36.000 --> 01:40:42.000
four Americans but also the Arab cities right and if we want it like the when we start counting

1093
01:40:42.000 --> 01:40:48.000
death toll we start to lose sight of the fact that we all have to live in a prioritized world it's

1094
01:40:48.000 --> 01:40:52.080
like we talk about the 30,000 dead Iranians we haven't said anything about the Palestinians that

1095
01:40:52.080 --> 01:40:57.360
died in Gaza right there's a lie a life is a life practically speaking a life is equal a life

1096
01:40:57.360 --> 01:41:01.600
is a life it's a tragedy to lose any human being so we still have to prioritize that on top of

1097
01:41:01.600 --> 01:41:05.840
another so can we interchange them with the four potential lives that were lost as results of

1098
01:41:05.840 --> 01:41:12.080
the Austin shooting that happened yesterday sure an American life that's lost is an American

1099
01:41:12.080 --> 01:41:15.600
life that's lost and the priority should be on protecting American life including protecting

1100
01:41:15.600 --> 01:41:19.920
Americans from themselves absolutely that's one thing that we're not resourcing right now because

1101
01:41:19.920 --> 01:41:26.000
our resources are going somewhere else which is my point about I think you know the real place

1102
01:41:26.000 --> 01:41:30.480
to look at this is is surveillance in the United States surveillance in the United States is

1103
01:41:30.480 --> 01:41:37.280
is 100% a guaranteed future mass surveillance has already happened it will it will just get

1104
01:41:37.280 --> 01:41:42.720
exacerbated expanded and legalized it's already there it's just the government has to buy their

1105
01:41:42.720 --> 01:41:46.640
data from your apple phone they can't just pull it on their own I think it's probably worth

1106
01:41:46.640 --> 01:41:51.440
introducing the anthropic piece here just because some people won't have context in July 2025

1107
01:41:51.440 --> 01:41:55.120
and Thropic who are a big AI company one of the biggest in the world the most exciting in the world

1108
01:41:55.120 --> 01:41:59.200
and one of the most advanced in the world signed a $200 million deal to build AI tools for U.S.

1109
01:41:59.200 --> 01:42:06.160
national security in February 2026 which was last month the Pentagon demanded Anthropics AI be

1110
01:42:06.160 --> 01:42:11.360
available for all military purposes but Anthropic refused to allow autonomous weapons or mass

1111
01:42:11.360 --> 01:42:16.400
surveillance of American citizens this dispute started after the U.S. military used Claude

1112
01:42:17.360 --> 01:42:23.280
in its raid to capture Claude is a tool made by Anthropic and AI tool made by Anthropic

1113
01:42:23.280 --> 01:42:28.080
they used Claude in a raid to capture Venezuelan president Nicholas McLeoduro in January

1114
01:42:29.040 --> 01:42:34.640
which Anthropics had violated its terms of use the Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth threatened to

1115
01:42:34.640 --> 01:42:39.360
cancel the contract and brand and Thropic a supply chain risk unless it dropped its safety

1116
01:42:39.360 --> 01:42:44.960
restrictions and stopped telling the U.S. how to use Anthropics AI and that started a big

1117
01:42:44.960 --> 01:42:49.760
conversation which is raging online around mass surveillance which is one of the things Anthropics

1118
01:42:49.760 --> 01:42:58.160
said it didn't want America using with its AI. I mean I think it's a convenient narrative to

1119
01:42:58.160 --> 01:43:04.880
position one giant AI company as somehow moral because it went up against the defense department

1120
01:43:04.880 --> 01:43:10.960
and another one not because it didn't because like you said in there Anthropics was part and

1121
01:43:10.960 --> 01:43:17.680
parcel to the Maduro raid so I don't I don't believe that corporations certainly AI corporations

1122
01:43:18.720 --> 01:43:23.120
you know are sitting around with the violin for American surveillance I just don't I mean

1123
01:43:23.120 --> 01:43:28.480
Americans sort of general well-being I think they're not atroistic. No of course not and I think

1124
01:43:28.480 --> 01:43:33.200
that narrative is dangerous. There was a research piece done by King's College in London where they

1125
01:43:33.200 --> 01:43:38.080
ran simulations on Cold War style war games using Chatch B team Claude and Gemini which are

1126
01:43:38.080 --> 01:43:44.160
three AI tools each played the leader of a nuclear arms superpower and in every single simulation

1127
01:43:44.160 --> 01:43:49.120
at least one of the AI models escalated the crisis by threatening to use nuclear weapons Claude

1128
01:43:49.120 --> 01:43:54.560
which is owned by Anthropic recommended nuclear strikes in 64 percent of games which was the highest

1129
01:43:54.560 --> 01:44:00.080
rate among all three of those AI models but stopped short of advocating for a full strategic

1130
01:44:00.080 --> 01:44:04.960
nuclear exchange when nuclear war. Bingo. Wasn't that the plot of the war movie war games in the

1131
01:44:04.960 --> 01:44:13.280
80s? Bingo I mean that's Skynet and so these are major concerns many of our former generals who

1132
01:44:13.280 --> 01:44:21.760
were heads of you know cyber and NSA are on the boards of these companies I've had conversations

1133
01:44:21.760 --> 01:44:28.560
with a number of them about this I think smart people are and and and and learned people are on

1134
01:44:28.560 --> 01:44:39.120
are aware of like this is an absolute cliffhanger precipice. Just making myself a delicious coffee

1135
01:44:39.120 --> 01:44:44.640
from the freezer? From the freezer you know how do I come to you? No. Oh my gosh this is going to

1136
01:44:44.640 --> 01:44:48.880
change your life. I invested in this company called Cometia last year and then I wanted the

1137
01:44:48.880 --> 01:44:53.200
sponsors of this podcast because they've taken a pretty revolutionary approach to making coffee.

1138
01:44:53.200 --> 01:44:59.840
Every coffee is precision brewed at 10 times the strength and then they flash freeze it

1139
01:44:59.840 --> 01:45:05.600
with liquid nitrogen to lock in the flavor and freshness and then it's delivered to you on dry

1140
01:45:05.600 --> 01:45:12.400
eyes in these recyclable aluminium capsules still frozen like a lice cube. All you have to do is

1141
01:45:12.400 --> 01:45:20.720
pop the capsule out add some hot water and then you stir it and you are good to go. You can also

1142
01:45:20.720 --> 01:45:29.040
make delicious ice coffee drinks as well just pour it in stir it up and for anyone that hasn't

1143
01:45:29.040 --> 01:45:36.480
tried it you can get $30 off your first order of Cometia coffee if you go to Cometia.com slash

1144
01:45:36.480 --> 01:45:43.360
Stephen we have finally caved in so many of you have asked us if we could bundle the conversation

1145
01:45:43.360 --> 01:45:47.520
cards with the 1% diary for those of you that don't know every single time a guest sits here with

1146
01:45:47.520 --> 01:45:51.840
me in the chair they leave a question in the diary of a CEO and then I ask that question to the

1147
01:45:51.840 --> 01:45:56.880
next guest. We don't release those questions in any environment other than on these incredible

1148
01:45:56.880 --> 01:46:02.160
conversation cards these have become a fantastic tool for people in relationships people in teams

1149
01:46:02.160 --> 01:46:06.720
in big corporations and also family members to connect with each other with that we also have

1150
01:46:06.720 --> 01:46:11.920
the 1% diary which is this incredible tool to change habits in your life so many of you have asked

1151
01:46:11.920 --> 01:46:17.280
if it was possible to buy both at the same time especially people in big companies so what we've

1152
01:46:17.360 --> 01:46:22.080
done is we've bundled them together and you can buy both at the same time and if you want to drive

1153
01:46:22.080 --> 01:46:27.120
connection and then still habit change in your company head to the diary.com to inquire and our

1154
01:46:27.120 --> 01:46:33.200
team will be in touch what is your most likely scenario that would lead to a nuclear war like

1155
01:46:33.200 --> 01:46:36.640
because you wrote the book on this stuff that you know you're you're the person that everybody

1156
01:46:36.640 --> 01:46:42.000
thinks of when we think about the scenario that nuclear war could break out of all the potential

1157
01:46:42.000 --> 01:46:47.440
roots there which one do you think is the most likely I do think that North Korea is very

1158
01:46:47.440 --> 01:46:53.760
dangerous I think Putin is I would have told you five years ago that Putin would you know he's

1159
01:46:53.760 --> 01:46:59.760
an intact former intelligence officer he's familiar with history he knows better and now I would

1160
01:46:59.760 --> 01:47:05.840
I have a changed opinion about that I think it's very dangerous and I think that he you know his

1161
01:47:05.840 --> 01:47:11.200
use of the Oreshnik was sort of like a like that that was a ballistic missile that is capable of

1162
01:47:11.200 --> 01:47:16.560
carrying a nuclear warhead there wasn't a nuclear warhead in it he did notify the state department

1163
01:47:16.560 --> 01:47:22.080
prior to the launch of that you know 30 minutes prior but that's like incredibly dangerous so

1164
01:47:23.040 --> 01:47:28.960
everything is dangerous any nuclear armed nation that you know threatens nuclear weapons is

1165
01:47:28.960 --> 01:47:36.640
dangerous but AI is its own extraordinary level of danger and the article that you wrote speaks to

1166
01:47:37.120 --> 01:47:44.080
now my understanding is currently everybody knows that you know air quotes and then when you learn

1167
01:47:44.560 --> 01:47:52.880
when I learned about the department of war and theropic AI laid at night battle over using AI

1168
01:47:52.880 --> 01:48:00.720
in these systems I was I was surprised why because I thought there was more restraint on that and

1169
01:48:00.720 --> 01:48:08.240
what I see in this administration yes and to see sort of the the same bravado that we do agree on

1170
01:48:08.240 --> 01:48:16.720
is coming out of this administration about exerting power about just being able to do it to

1171
01:48:16.720 --> 01:48:24.960
capitation strike effectively using AI I I go wow that is not what I expected the interesting

1172
01:48:24.960 --> 01:48:31.680
thing with Trump generally is that he has a reputation of saying and doing things that at one

1173
01:48:31.680 --> 01:48:36.160
point we would have all gone oh my god but we've almost become so used to these things that there's

1174
01:48:36.160 --> 01:48:40.960
almost a desensitization to some degree shattering of norms they call it right he also contradicts

1175
01:48:40.960 --> 01:48:47.120
himself I mean that's not even I mean he's spoken on the record about how I mean I think he put out

1176
01:48:47.120 --> 01:48:54.240
a video in 2011 might be wrong in the date like attacking Obama for you know and saying that he

1177
01:48:54.240 --> 01:49:00.240
was going to attack him in 2013 there's there's a there's a tweet that he posted saying attacking

1178
01:49:00.240 --> 01:49:04.560
Iran is showing that you fail the negotiations and you know something to that effect so here we are

1179
01:49:04.560 --> 01:49:08.640
talking about how important it is to change your mind maybe if you're not the maybe not if you're

1180
01:49:08.640 --> 01:49:13.760
the president of the United States I think the slippery slope is it's so gradual that sometimes you

1181
01:49:13.760 --> 01:49:18.000
don't see where you're heading towards and in terms of sort of military action and the use of AI

1182
01:49:18.000 --> 01:49:21.600
and all these things and autonomous weapons it would feel like we're going down a slippery slope

1183
01:49:22.080 --> 01:49:26.240
in a way that I haven't felt for the other 33 years of my life as it relates to geopolitics and more

1184
01:49:26.240 --> 01:49:32.240
and also generally when you think about some of the actions that and speeches at Davos where the US

1185
01:49:32.240 --> 01:49:36.080
leaders were saying to the Europeans listen you guys are weak now and we it was sounded to me saying

1186
01:49:36.080 --> 01:49:39.760
like you guys are weak get your shit together figure out your energy situation we don't need you

1187
01:49:39.760 --> 01:49:43.600
anymore listen we're not going to we're going to run this now and this whole idea of special

1188
01:49:43.600 --> 01:49:48.080
relationship blah blah blah it seems to have gone out the window so you've got an emboldened

1189
01:49:48.080 --> 01:49:52.000
United States military and leadership who seem to be able to do what the fuck they want if you

1190
01:49:52.000 --> 01:49:55.920
don't let us use your air how we wish we'll smash your company we'll take away that 10 million

1191
01:49:55.920 --> 01:50:00.160
contract and we'll cut you off from the rest of the supply chain and we get used to it you know we

1192
01:50:00.160 --> 01:50:04.160
hear the head I'm going oh that's crazy that and then we kind of get desensitized again as humans do

1193
01:50:05.200 --> 01:50:09.920
but the direction of travel is sometimes what you want to look at yeah versus just this

1194
01:50:09.920 --> 01:50:14.480
this sort of static state of where we are that's the concern I think you have hit the nail on the head

1195
01:50:14.480 --> 01:50:19.760
with that I agree I think you've got I think you've got a much clearer picture than most Steve

1196
01:50:19.760 --> 01:50:28.080
on what's going on here the United States it has to pursue AI far more aggressively than what

1197
01:50:29.440 --> 01:50:33.360
what the what the CEOs of these companies want I actually do believe there's quite a bit of

1198
01:50:33.360 --> 01:50:38.480
altruism in the CEOs and the founders of these ayes they didn't create these ayes so they could

1199
01:50:38.480 --> 01:50:43.680
be warmongers they created these ayes for some techie beautiful vision of some utopian future that's

1200
01:50:43.680 --> 01:50:48.960
like things Zuckerberg didn't create Facebook for to to cause teens to feel bad about themselves

1201
01:50:48.960 --> 01:50:52.800
you created it for people to connect for something else exactly right right look what happens

1202
01:50:52.800 --> 01:50:59.920
that's yeah yeah unintended consequences yeah so regardless of what the United States' opinion

1203
01:50:59.920 --> 01:51:05.200
is about AI it also has to very realistically look at how China is developing AI and China is

1204
01:51:05.200 --> 01:51:10.240
already 10X more aggressive than the United States is and if they crack the code on certain types

1205
01:51:10.240 --> 01:51:17.360
of AI like like artificial general intelligence or recursive recursive self-improvement if it breaks

1206
01:51:17.360 --> 01:51:24.320
the code on these first it's an exponential head start over the United States and all of their AI

1207
01:51:25.040 --> 01:51:29.520
everything that we have some sort of reticence about using automated or autonomous weapons

1208
01:51:29.520 --> 01:51:35.520
mass surveillance China is already using so the the number one strategic priority consistently

1209
01:51:35.520 --> 01:51:41.440
and all documentation is China so the United States has to aggressively pursue AI it yes I

1210
01:51:41.440 --> 01:51:48.320
understand that mindset it is absolutely ludicrous to think that one day an AI helps us take that

1211
01:51:48.320 --> 01:51:52.720
leader of Venezuela and then the next day we claim it's a supply chain risk that's just that's

1212
01:51:52.720 --> 01:51:58.960
the kind of lunacy that we live in every day but but the my my bottom line concern here is that

1213
01:51:58.960 --> 01:52:03.280
the United States used to be the leader of the free world we're not a leader of the world at all

1214
01:52:03.280 --> 01:52:08.480
we're adopting more autocratic behaviors because we're seeing other countries succeed with

1215
01:52:08.480 --> 01:52:13.040
autocratic behaviors and we're abandoning Europe which is the only place left trying to say that

1216
01:52:13.040 --> 01:52:20.160
democracy still counts like we are we are not leading anymore we are mimicking we are reacting we

1217
01:52:20.160 --> 01:52:25.520
are petulence but we are not leading I'm still thinking about your doomsday scenario with deathbed

1218
01:52:25.520 --> 01:52:32.320
Vladimir Putin but he might do is that like realistic isn't realistic you know it's like

1219
01:52:32.320 --> 01:52:39.120
from hell's heart I stab at the I mean it it it I don't know what's realistic anymore I

1220
01:52:39.120 --> 01:52:44.080
again these norms that are shattered these restraints these these guardrails that we think no a leader

1221
01:52:44.080 --> 01:52:49.040
wouldn't do this or someone wouldn't do that I'm beginning to question all of it too I don't know

1222
01:52:49.040 --> 01:52:54.400
anymore what what someone is or isn't capable of and I think humans have a discomfort with

1223
01:52:54.400 --> 01:52:59.440
cognitive dissonance where you know holding two opposing viewpoints at once we've gotten I think

1224
01:52:59.440 --> 01:53:04.720
worst at it evolutionary over over time and our politicians are the worst yet or our word leaders

1225
01:53:04.720 --> 01:53:09.360
are the worst at it yet and so that's a cause of concern for me I always think what what

1226
01:53:09.360 --> 01:53:12.160
is someone got to lose them would have they got to gain and if you've got a couple of days left

1227
01:53:12.160 --> 01:53:16.160
of your life or couple of days left in office and you're I don't know Trump's going to be what 83

1228
01:53:16.160 --> 01:53:20.160
by the time he gets out of office or something yeah why does he care if he pushes a button and does

1229
01:53:20.160 --> 01:53:25.920
whatever at which point yeah you know and the same with Putin at some point he's going to be old

1230
01:53:25.920 --> 01:53:29.280
and he's going to have a couple of you know couple of weeks left in his life and he's going to

1231
01:53:29.280 --> 01:53:33.120
be reflecting on his legacy and he's got nothing to lose yeah Trump's got nothing to lose with

1232
01:53:33.120 --> 01:53:41.600
there's no second term well he I watched him the other day taking great admiration to the fact that

1233
01:53:41.600 --> 01:53:46.640
Zalinsky can't be they can't be elections in Ukraine because there's a war going on and I think

1234
01:53:46.640 --> 01:53:50.800
he cracked a joke saying that he would kind of like that but if there was a U.S. war going on

1235
01:53:50.800 --> 01:53:57.680
they they wouldn't be elections and it sounded like a joke but a lot of things have sounded like

1236
01:53:57.680 --> 01:54:04.160
jokes before that he said so what is your what do you think happens next and also I wanted to

1237
01:54:04.160 --> 01:54:08.160
get your take on you know we've got this map here which shows where Iran can strike with

1238
01:54:08.160 --> 01:54:13.280
their missiles I've got friends in Dubai never in my life did I think bombs would be dropping on

1239
01:54:13.280 --> 01:54:17.440
Dubai or any strikes or drones would be happening in Dubai and one of my best friends was in the

1240
01:54:17.440 --> 01:54:22.160
basement in a bunker the two nights ago because of what's going on that whole region has been hit

1241
01:54:22.160 --> 01:54:30.160
the Dubai airport has been hit Saudi Arabia's been hit and Burrain's been hit what does this do to

1242
01:54:30.160 --> 01:54:37.520
the region and why Iran hitting these places so this is part of the burden sharing strategy that

1243
01:54:37.520 --> 01:54:42.960
the United States military doctrine has put in place and I think to a certain extent all of the

1244
01:54:43.040 --> 01:54:47.440
region already knew they were on Iran's radar they they've all had this weird hostile

1245
01:54:48.480 --> 01:54:52.720
collaborative relationship with Iran out of necessity because Iran is the bread basket of

1246
01:54:52.720 --> 01:54:58.240
the Middle East so they've known that there's always the risk but I don't think I ever took that

1247
01:54:58.240 --> 01:55:04.240
that particular risk seriously why Iran are on doing it yeah why do they care about messing up

1248
01:55:04.240 --> 01:55:08.960
Dubai or making people into by scale they are lowering the paint threshold the deputy foreign

1249
01:55:08.960 --> 01:55:14.320
minister said we can't strike Americans in America we can maybe strike Americans at their

1250
01:55:14.320 --> 01:55:19.520
bases in these Arab states and we can also strike the states that are that are hosting Americans

1251
01:55:19.520 --> 01:55:24.880
Americans civilians American military American contractors you name it they're all complicit

1252
01:55:24.880 --> 01:55:30.320
and it's lashing out because what happens is if you make it miserable for everybody then United

1253
01:55:30.320 --> 01:55:35.680
States is pressured to bring this to an end okay so they can run have to lose to back to your

1254
01:55:35.680 --> 01:55:40.000
sort of doomsday scenario they're about to be destroyed anyway what do they have to lose they're

1255
01:55:40.000 --> 01:55:44.720
gonna take everyone down with them because only that threat is real well the United States say okay

1256
01:55:44.720 --> 01:55:48.000
you know what we're gonna pause and see if we can get back to diplomacy and it might work

1257
01:55:49.840 --> 01:55:54.320
if the Arab states you know decide that okay we're not gonna sustain this we're not gonna fight

1258
01:55:54.320 --> 01:55:58.080
back we need this to end United States you have to stop what you're doing so we could see a lot

1259
01:55:58.080 --> 01:56:01.520
of the conflict actually taking place in some of these neighboring countries terrorist attacks

1260
01:56:02.240 --> 01:56:07.760
it's working it's working it's causing pain to these sort of peripheral countries that are not

1261
01:56:07.760 --> 01:56:12.400
central to this conflict and look what the United States has done arguably right yeah and one of

1262
01:56:12.400 --> 01:56:18.560
the unintended well maybe intended consequences is if I turn on the news in the UK right now the

1263
01:56:18.560 --> 01:56:24.080
narrative is that this region Dubai all of these places Abu Dhabi it's all unsafe and what that

1264
01:56:24.080 --> 01:56:28.560
means is they're showing the sky news are going up to families in Dubai and going how are you

1265
01:56:28.560 --> 01:56:32.720
feeling and they go I'm stuck I just want to get home and this region have spent a lot of money

1266
01:56:32.720 --> 01:56:37.680
building their reputation over the last couple of decades their tourist economy and this is

1267
01:56:37.680 --> 01:56:42.160
gonna even if the war was to stop today there'll be a big cohort of people that she's not to go

1268
01:56:42.160 --> 01:56:49.040
there on holiday and she's not to go and relocate there and that will reverberate one could argue

1269
01:56:49.040 --> 01:56:53.280
that it's actually in you know this narrative that the Middle East is unsafe one could argue that

1270
01:56:53.280 --> 01:56:58.640
that's actually in the interest of the UK and it's going to drive down the price of real estate

1271
01:56:58.640 --> 01:57:04.240
yeah yeah and drive up our tax receipts because we have a lot of I think it's the biggest

1272
01:57:04.240 --> 01:57:09.600
place that UK taxpayers have gone to and million has gone to is this region so do you have any thoughts

1273
01:57:09.600 --> 01:57:14.480
on that no you're not I don't think you're wrong I think that there's whether or not I don't

1274
01:57:14.480 --> 01:57:20.480
believe that Western countries wants to see death and destruction in the Middle East I don't

1275
01:57:20.480 --> 01:57:27.200
believe that I do think that when they plan for blowback they account for that and they try to make

1276
01:57:27.200 --> 01:57:32.080
the best opportunity out of the blowback that they already expect and that does make sense

1277
01:57:33.280 --> 01:57:38.560
but at the at the end of the day Iran has to do something to react and it knows that it can't

1278
01:57:38.560 --> 01:57:42.480
just send all of its rockets at the fleet that's off the coast of Amman because the fleet that's

1279
01:57:42.480 --> 01:57:45.440
off the coast of Amman is gonna be able to intercept most of those rockets so if they want some kind

1280
01:57:45.440 --> 01:57:51.200
of effective response the most effective response they can have is to share the pain and create some

1281
01:57:51.200 --> 01:57:56.640
sort of international resistance against what the United States has done how long do you think this

1282
01:57:56.640 --> 01:58:00.160
goes on for Angie if you had to guess if I had to guess I would say that there's going to be an

1283
01:58:00.160 --> 01:58:06.240
active hot conflict with Iran that lasts a few weeks hot conflict meaning every day we wake up

1284
01:58:06.240 --> 01:58:10.560
and we see new rockets being launched and new new attacks new new airsorties being launched

1285
01:58:11.120 --> 01:58:18.400
but uh but the actual reverberations of this from Hezbollah from Hamas from the Houthis from

1286
01:58:18.960 --> 01:58:25.360
whatever loyal stanchions still exist in Iran we could see that for years there there's no guarantee

1287
01:58:25.360 --> 01:58:30.720
that Iran's gonna bounce back from this in a better place I hope it will but hope is not the same

1288
01:58:30.720 --> 01:58:36.720
thing as reality hope is just hope I hope that it will but in the vacuum we could see the biggest

1289
01:58:36.720 --> 01:58:40.560
adversaries to the United States flood in and support Iran like the biggest adversaries in the

1290
01:58:40.560 --> 01:58:45.440
world flooded in support Afghanistan we might see that we have even less influence over the region

1291
01:58:45.440 --> 01:58:49.920
in the future than we do now is there some an issue of the distraction this is causing to what's

1292
01:58:49.920 --> 01:58:53.680
going on in your crane and in other parts of the world where there was already conflict and there

1293
01:58:53.680 --> 01:58:57.360
was already time well like are people now not gonna pay attention to your crane so that that

1294
01:58:57.360 --> 01:59:03.440
gives Putin some cover to be more aggressive there and it absolutely emboldens every authoritarian

1295
01:59:03.440 --> 01:59:07.760
ruler out there because now there it's been it's validating to them that they're not actually doing

1296
01:59:07.760 --> 01:59:12.320
anything wrong if the president of the United States can do it then certainly the Putin can do it

1297
01:59:12.320 --> 01:59:17.280
and Xi Jinping can do it and and any warlord in Africa can do it it's certainly it's allowed

1298
01:59:17.280 --> 01:59:22.800
or on the flip side it's showing that if you act outside of international norms that the United

1299
01:59:22.800 --> 01:59:27.680
States president will not hesitate to decapitate your entire leadership which is something maybe

1300
01:59:27.680 --> 01:59:31.680
we didn't think was conceivable a couple weeks ago so there's that inverse message is it conceivable

1301
01:59:31.760 --> 01:59:36.880
that both might occur yeah yes probably that sounds to me like that might be the most likely outcome

1302
01:59:36.880 --> 01:59:40.640
that you're probably going to go one of either ways you know China might say now's a good time to

1303
01:59:40.640 --> 01:59:45.600
get Taiwan because I mean I mean objectively speaking people are distracted and it's a perfect

1304
01:59:45.600 --> 01:59:48.960
chance it's a perfect time for someone to try to assassinate the president but then Cuba might say

1305
01:59:48.960 --> 01:59:54.800
you know exactly look what happens if we don't what do you think Annie on this objective what happens

1306
01:59:54.800 --> 02:00:02.800
next I mean I'm to that end I would say how fascinating is it that what happened with Maduro

1307
02:00:02.800 --> 02:00:12.800
in January still shocks me 150 paramilitary or military and intelligence officers go in grab

1308
02:00:13.760 --> 02:00:22.800
the sovereign leader and his wife in a heavily fortified military base take out his you know guardsman

1309
02:00:22.880 --> 02:00:30.400
who are actually Cuban I mean there's just so many things to unpack and what I just said about what

1310
02:00:30.400 --> 02:00:40.720
just happened and yet that's just old news that and that to me is more interesting than what might

1311
02:00:40.720 --> 02:00:50.960
happen in the future not because I'll I can I can try and wrap my head around the past but I can't

1312
02:00:50.960 --> 02:00:57.120
predict the future but I am I do believe they correlate with one another and only after time you

1313
02:00:57.120 --> 02:01:06.640
know it's the old hindsight is is is 2020 it will make how Iran unfolds you know maybe we'll get

1314
02:01:06.640 --> 02:01:12.000
the ban back together in five months and have a discussion and we'll all be wrong I don't know

1315
02:01:13.200 --> 02:01:19.840
separate question but do you think Trump's going to leave office I mean the Constitution says he is

1316
02:01:19.840 --> 02:01:25.520
do you think he will the Constitution says he is but do you think you I don't have a crystal ball

1317
02:01:25.520 --> 02:01:29.840
do you think he'll leave office I do do you think you'll leave I do you do I have more confidence

1318
02:01:29.840 --> 02:01:35.920
after last weeks learning resources supreme court opinion that we saw two justices who Trump

1319
02:01:35.920 --> 02:01:42.000
appointed who basically defied a policy that was the signature of his of his second term

1320
02:01:42.000 --> 02:01:47.120
his campaign his his tariffs and saying that you don't have that power I was in bolden I would

1321
02:01:47.120 --> 02:01:52.560
have been more pessimistic but after seeing that it gave me a little bit more hope that that

1322
02:01:52.560 --> 02:01:56.960
that there is still sort of guard rails and separation of powers is still a thing what do you

1323
02:01:56.960 --> 02:02:02.000
think happens next in the region I'm with Andrew I think three to four weeks is the timeline I see

1324
02:02:02.000 --> 02:02:07.200
for the actual kinetic war and then after that every one of these Iranian leaders whoever's left

1325
02:02:07.200 --> 02:02:11.040
whoever steps in and fills a role of a whether it's a military junta that takes over whether it's

1326
02:02:11.040 --> 02:02:16.000
a symbolic supreme leader these are all marked men they're all going to be targeted for assassination

1327
02:02:16.080 --> 02:02:22.960
there's no by Israel by quite a bit pretty much anybody that considers them enemies even maybe

1328
02:02:22.960 --> 02:02:29.600
now some of the Arab states for that matter at the end of the day it doesn't pay to be a political

1329
02:02:29.600 --> 02:02:34.320
or religious figure in Iran so at this point I think what we're going to see in the months to come

1330
02:02:34.320 --> 02:02:39.360
is a slow fracturing of that support and I'm not surprised if we start seeing defections from

1331
02:02:39.360 --> 02:02:44.800
the IRGC and people just like we saw during 1979 saying you know what it's not worth it there's

1332
02:02:44.800 --> 02:02:50.400
that there's no there's no long-term gain here because this regime has lost any credibility

1333
02:02:50.400 --> 02:02:55.120
domestically there's none left zero and it's losing credibility in the region it violated an

1334
02:02:55.120 --> 02:02:59.200
unspoken agreement with its Arab neighbors that they don't directly fight each other in this way

1335
02:02:59.200 --> 02:03:05.600
and its allies so-called allies have abandoned it it has nothing left so when you have nothing left

1336
02:03:05.600 --> 02:03:09.840
what is there to fight for that's why but that's going to take a few months up to a year to play out

1337
02:03:10.800 --> 02:03:13.760
what is the most important thing that we should have talked about that we didn't talk about you

1338
02:03:14.720 --> 02:03:20.800
as it relates to all of the stuff we talked about today I think for me what I'm always what I always

1339
02:03:20.800 --> 02:03:26.400
come back to is what is the future for the average American what does it look like for us

1340
02:03:27.760 --> 02:03:33.600
I'm not sure how this plays out I'm not sure that we improved the state of the average American

1341
02:03:33.600 --> 02:03:38.080
very much in the last few days I don't know that we will see much improvement in the next few

1342
02:03:38.080 --> 02:03:43.120
weeks I don't know that we will see much improvement in the next few years because of what actions

1343
02:03:43.120 --> 02:03:47.200
we took in Iran but I do confirm I agree with what the other two have said like with the United

1344
02:03:47.200 --> 02:03:55.680
States administration has shown it's powerful in Venezuela it's powerful in in Iran Cuba is already

1345
02:03:55.680 --> 02:04:04.240
being more than whispered about as the next the next transition in government how how much chaos

1346
02:04:04.400 --> 02:04:10.640
are we going to see to the existing world establishment before Trump then leaves office and somebody

1347
02:04:10.640 --> 02:04:15.200
else has to come in and pick up the mess and I've always been concerned not about Donald Trump

1348
02:04:15.200 --> 02:04:20.640
but about who comes after Donald Trump why because if Donald Trump paves the way for this authoritarian

1349
02:04:20.640 --> 02:04:26.160
type of shift and if he has support through his final days in office then whoever comes next will

1350
02:04:26.160 --> 02:04:32.560
have even more legitimacy to come in with a strong hand from the beginning and potentially a world

1351
02:04:32.640 --> 02:04:38.800
where only authoritarian actions work and that just continues to take us down a road of pain I've

1352
02:04:38.800 --> 02:04:42.560
been talking to you about this for the better part of three years that I believe the United I believe

1353
02:04:42.560 --> 02:04:48.320
the world and especially the United States is is coming into one of its darkest decades ever

1354
02:04:49.280 --> 02:04:54.480
this is the world that we live in now a world where it's not unipolar a world of AI technologies we

1355
02:04:54.480 --> 02:05:01.520
can't predict of conflict that we can't anticipate of mass surveillance of of the breaking of

1356
02:05:01.520 --> 02:05:06.000
international norms this is the world we are coming into now it's the world that our children

1357
02:05:06.000 --> 02:05:10.240
are going to be developed in it's the world that one day they will have to create their own future

1358
02:05:10.240 --> 02:05:16.080
in and and our grandchildren will inherit whatever's left of it after that it's it's sad to me to see

1359
02:05:16.080 --> 02:05:21.680
that this is where we are and unless we take some sort of responsibility for our own future we will

1360
02:05:21.680 --> 02:05:26.560
keep following this authoritarian trend but isn't this better than the past I would say no

1361
02:05:27.520 --> 02:05:33.200
a unipolar world where the United States is a supreme power as an American that is a better world

1362
02:05:33.200 --> 02:05:37.120
but at least you won't die of dysentery out in the wilderness right yeah I mean that's kind of

1363
02:05:37.120 --> 02:05:42.160
what people say right they say well babies aren't dying anymore at childbirth and you know

1364
02:05:42.160 --> 02:05:48.800
people are struggling with poverty so so it's a better depends what metric you're measuring I guess but

1365
02:05:48.960 --> 02:05:57.760
on on that point of the transition after Trump leaves would it be worse if a weak leader came in

1366
02:05:59.040 --> 02:06:02.400
because I'm I'm wondering look we know Putin's still going to be there we know a lot of these

1367
02:06:02.400 --> 02:06:08.240
other powers are still going to be there Biden didn't strike me as the the scariest guy in the

1368
02:06:08.240 --> 02:06:13.040
world the most the toughest guy in the world didn't strike me as the tough guy in the world so if

1369
02:06:13.040 --> 02:06:18.480
another figure like Biden came into power after Trump once with that wall raging over there and

1370
02:06:18.480 --> 02:06:25.040
with you know China um thinking about Taiwan etc is that not even more dangerous I think there's

1371
02:06:25.040 --> 02:06:31.120
a difference between a strong leader and a strong arm a strong leader can chart a path keep a vision

1372
02:06:31.120 --> 02:06:37.120
make hard decisions balance priorities keep people focused where a strong arm is out to win

1373
02:06:37.840 --> 02:06:44.320
and Donald Trump his entire career he's been the man who's out to win again I don't think this is

1374
02:06:44.320 --> 02:06:49.200
a Trump issue I don't think this is a Trump problem I don't think Donald Trump is some villain of

1375
02:06:49.200 --> 02:06:54.640
the world I just think Donald Trump is the manifestation of how most Americans felt at the time

1376
02:06:54.640 --> 02:07:01.840
that they elected him which was like we want to win and now we're realizing that two years after

1377
02:07:01.840 --> 02:07:05.920
the second time that we wanted to win there are other secondary consequences that we hadn't

1378
02:07:05.920 --> 02:07:11.840
considered and that's why so many of the kind of groups that supported Donald Trump have changed

1379
02:07:11.920 --> 02:07:16.720
flavor about him it's why approval rating is so low because he's found a way to ostracize so many

1380
02:07:16.720 --> 02:07:21.440
of the groups that used to support him because they didn't realize that he was more complex than what

1381
02:07:21.440 --> 02:07:27.360
they had originally thought back in that November youth Annie most important thing we should have

1382
02:07:27.360 --> 02:07:34.720
talked about it didn't I'm gonna pick up on Andrews thought about a strong leader versus a strong

1383
02:07:34.720 --> 02:07:40.640
arm because it's so important to think about moving forward and is that even possible you know

1384
02:07:40.640 --> 02:07:46.000
yes we absolutely cannot have a week leader I mean look what happened with Putin moving into

1385
02:07:46.000 --> 02:07:53.760
Ukraine taking you train attacking Ukraine and I I I think that you know who wants to be president

1386
02:07:54.320 --> 02:07:59.120
there's also this idea of you you know you look at the records of how people

1387
02:07:59.920 --> 02:08:04.880
say come into office how they how they campaign saying what they are I'm going to get rid of

1388
02:08:04.880 --> 02:08:10.160
these dangerous nuclear policies I'm going they have all kinds of optimistic ideas about things

1389
02:08:10.160 --> 02:08:17.680
and then something happens in that first briefing something none of us know it's so mysterious

1390
02:08:17.680 --> 02:08:25.120
and they never talk about and then their policies and their their perspective deeply changes

1391
02:08:25.120 --> 02:08:30.240
and I think people move from an idea that they can be a strong leader to the idea that they have

1392
02:08:30.240 --> 02:08:36.720
to be a strong arm and I think that's that's deeply depressing to me and I am an eternal optimist

1393
02:08:36.720 --> 02:08:41.760
so I want to see that change presumably they're being made aware of the real threats that they

1394
02:08:41.760 --> 02:08:49.440
face that the US faces and suddenly what was I know theoretical becomes very real perhaps and so

1395
02:08:49.440 --> 02:08:55.760
the I who loves narrative the question is what is that narrative and anything that is kept

1396
02:08:55.760 --> 02:09:02.320
absolutely secret I want to know about and I no one knows that answer no president has ever spoken

1397
02:09:02.560 --> 02:09:06.960
of it so what is that narrative what are they told it's definitely not aliens

1398
02:09:09.840 --> 02:09:19.360
it's a conversation for another time Benjamin um here right here Taiwan so I've been working on

1399
02:09:19.360 --> 02:09:24.640
a simulation a war game that looks at something that's become up in the news now what happens if

1400
02:09:24.640 --> 02:09:29.920
we don't need China to invade Taiwan we need China to just blockade and completely cut off 90%

1401
02:09:29.920 --> 02:09:36.320
of the chips and microprocessors and all the things we need in this AI age into the West what the

1402
02:09:36.320 --> 02:09:41.040
hell do we do under that scenario we don't have the infrastructure the capacity the resources

1403
02:09:41.040 --> 02:09:46.800
to bring everything back online that we need to to fabricate and make these chips um we talked

1404
02:09:46.800 --> 02:09:51.440
about China a bit but I'm really worried about this what happens here is so because we realized

1405
02:09:51.440 --> 02:09:56.160
so much on that little island um and we don't need it invaded we just needed blockaded kind of

1406
02:09:56.240 --> 02:09:59.360
so what we see in the straits of hormones happening right now 20% of the world's oil

1407
02:10:00.080 --> 02:10:04.160
opac can increase production it'll take a few weeks to bring it offline stabilize the markets

1408
02:10:04.160 --> 02:10:09.200
we don't have that luxury here not when it comes to the very things that powers the next generation

1409
02:10:09.200 --> 02:10:14.880
of warfare and diplomacy and you can talk development I don't think the average person realizes

1410
02:10:14.880 --> 02:10:21.920
how much the West relies on that little island 90% of our at least here in the United States 90%

1411
02:10:22.000 --> 02:10:26.960
as I understand it that comes from from that from that one island the chips that are in our

1412
02:10:26.960 --> 02:10:31.920
electrical devices hmm why don't they just move it over here they're trying they're trying not

1413
02:10:31.920 --> 02:10:36.320
they're trying right yeah it takes years it takes years to get it cleared it's very environmentally

1414
02:10:36.320 --> 02:10:41.760
damaging the infrastructure takes time the expertise isn't here all the IP that's on that island

1415
02:10:41.760 --> 02:10:45.920
comes from the United States but the actual factories have been there and will be there I guess

1416
02:10:45.920 --> 02:10:50.640
there'll be a big labor cost impact as well absolutely regulations all kinds of things we have to

1417
02:10:50.640 --> 02:10:53.840
work our way around and figure out how and then you know training the workers to be able to

1418
02:10:53.840 --> 02:10:59.280
fabricate them due to as efficiently yield you know results that are that are high enough

1419
02:11:01.440 --> 02:11:08.320
so that's your concern huge concern I mean our communications could shut down our cars because I

1420
02:11:08.320 --> 02:11:14.080
mean so many things can go wrong if we lose the capacity to power the devices that we need

1421
02:11:14.720 --> 02:11:17.680
what advice would you guys give this my last question I promise what advice would you give to

1422
02:11:17.680 --> 02:11:21.520
the average person you know because he was talked theoretically about geopolitics and the

1423
02:11:21.520 --> 02:11:25.600
average person's at home can't do a lot about that but if you were to give advice to the average

1424
02:11:25.600 --> 02:11:30.000
person who's thinking about their family about their future about their work what would you say

1425
02:11:30.720 --> 02:11:38.000
we are not helpless it's not out of our control but we do have to assert our control there's a

1426
02:11:38.000 --> 02:11:44.960
midterm election that could effectively quasi effectively block the decisions that the president

1427
02:11:44.960 --> 02:11:54.800
can make unilaterally if we exercise our right to vote we create either a blue senate or a blue

1428
02:11:54.800 --> 02:12:01.440
house of representatives arguably we have demonstrated our ability to exercise our right to vote and

1429
02:12:01.440 --> 02:12:06.640
taking back some semblance of control in our country but unfortunately I think people don't

1430
02:12:06.640 --> 02:12:11.680
like waiting they don't like taking seven months before they can take an action they want to do

1431
02:12:11.680 --> 02:12:18.080
something right now and and we live in a country in a democratic process where we get a chance to

1432
02:12:18.080 --> 02:12:24.400
exercise our power every two years so we have to actually show up and exercise that power what are

1433
02:12:24.400 --> 02:12:30.000
you doing for you and your family we're leaving the United States why because the United States is

1434
02:12:30.000 --> 02:12:35.760
not going in the direction that I believe is the most conducive to the kind of citizen that I want

1435
02:12:35.760 --> 02:12:42.880
to build in my children I don't want my children to grow up in a country that is either afraid

1436
02:12:42.880 --> 02:12:46.400
or angry I don't want my children to grow up in a country that's constantly compromising its

1437
02:12:46.400 --> 02:12:50.880
own democratic principles I don't want to raise my kids in a country that puts capitalism before

1438
02:12:50.880 --> 02:12:55.760
all other things I want my children to grow up as global citizens to recognize that we're all

1439
02:12:55.760 --> 02:13:00.960
interconnected to value every human life I wasn't given the privilege I was the perfect candidate

1440
02:13:00.960 --> 02:13:05.120
to sit here and tell you that American labs are more valuable than everybody else that's not

1441
02:13:05.120 --> 02:13:10.480
what I want to pass to my children I want my children to look at lives around the world as valuable

1442
02:13:11.040 --> 02:13:14.640
independent individual blessings and I can try to teach them that but that's not the message

1443
02:13:14.640 --> 02:13:25.440
that they get so are you going to go that's for me to know and Costa Rica absolutely read as much

1444
02:13:25.440 --> 02:13:34.160
as you can across the broadest spectrum that you can find and have conversations about what you

1445
02:13:34.160 --> 02:13:40.320
think you know and what you want to know with as many people as you can across the broadest

1446
02:13:40.320 --> 02:13:46.480
spectrum you can and don't be afraid to have a little bit of friction like we had here today

1447
02:13:47.200 --> 02:13:54.560
that that's the way it works and that's how the mind stays fluid and flexible and you can always

1448
02:13:54.560 --> 02:13:59.840
realize that you're wrong amen I think that's increasingly important in the age of misinformation

1449
02:13:59.840 --> 02:14:04.400
disinformation is to be able to have conversations like we had today where you have an opinion but

1450
02:14:04.400 --> 02:14:09.840
you're open minded to listen and something that I think is increasingly important but increasingly rare

1451
02:14:10.800 --> 02:14:15.040
even as a podcaster you're kind of forced to fit somewhere you're pushed to be on the right or

1452
02:14:15.040 --> 02:14:19.120
pushed to be on the left or pushed to believe this or pushed to believe that and it takes especially

1453
02:14:19.120 --> 02:14:23.200
in the modern world with algorithms here in New Everyday it takes some restraint and thoughtfulness

1454
02:14:23.200 --> 02:14:29.280
to try and remain open so I love that message and I hope for our audience that listening I hope

1455
02:14:29.280 --> 02:14:32.880
that that's what they do as well like even if they don't like you guess we haven't the show or they

1456
02:14:32.880 --> 02:14:36.640
have a different opinion I hope you can at least bring yourself to listen and fight the cognitive

1457
02:14:36.640 --> 02:14:41.840
dissonance which is very natural in human instincts to to hear them out and to allow those ideas

1458
02:14:41.840 --> 02:14:46.080
to clash with your own to arrive at your own conclusions Benjamin I'm going to echo a lot of what

1459
02:14:46.080 --> 02:14:51.840
Andy said stay curious I think podcasts like yours and I think others do a great job of exposing

1460
02:14:51.840 --> 02:14:58.000
people to different things they didn't think of so continue to feed that curiosity and cognitive

1461
02:14:58.000 --> 02:15:02.320
dissonance is uncomfortable but it is a good thing because it forces us to think of opinions that

1462
02:15:02.320 --> 02:15:08.720
we wouldn't otherwise and I try to teach my students the power of empathy which basically means

1463
02:15:08.720 --> 02:15:12.560
you don't have to like the other side you can hate the other side but just see the world as they

1464
02:15:12.560 --> 02:15:17.680
see it for a moment before you do so I think empathy is critical why do we find more of your work

1465
02:15:17.680 --> 02:15:24.720
Benjamin I mean for me it's I'm building out ways to be able to find more of it but on on

1466
02:15:24.720 --> 02:15:30.240
socials on X and on Instagram I try to post as often as I can and I give talks when I can

1467
02:15:30.240 --> 02:15:34.160
yeah you haven't reached the book yet not yet I'm designing a simulation platform that's

1468
02:15:34.160 --> 02:15:40.960
sort of my product but it's not available to the masses yet and Annie where books are sold

1469
02:15:40.960 --> 02:15:45.680
I mean you've got a lot of them but you write fantastic books any particular one you would like

1470
02:15:45.680 --> 02:15:51.760
people to read start at the beginning okay I'm ready or start at the end the any anthology I'll

1471
02:15:51.760 --> 02:15:56.320
link them all below in the description so people can find them and Andrew you can find me at

1472
02:15:56.320 --> 02:16:01.360
everydayspy.com the business that I own you can find me everywhere it as my name Andrew Boostamonte

1473
02:16:01.360 --> 02:16:07.040
and and yeah YouTube and you written this great book Shadow Cell which has been a smash hit

1474
02:16:07.040 --> 02:16:10.800
with New York Times best seller wasn't it yes sir it was and this is when we talked about this

1475
02:16:10.800 --> 02:16:15.040
in our last episode but I took a long time to get this book declassified I believe and get

1476
02:16:15.040 --> 02:16:19.680
permission from the CIA to release it and it's a fascinating story of uncovering a mole within

1477
02:16:20.560 --> 02:16:25.360
the CIA which is fascinating so thank you again all of you for getting together and demystifying

1478
02:16:25.360 --> 02:16:28.400
a lot of this stuff for me it's helped me to build my own perspective on what's going on in the world

1479
02:16:28.400 --> 02:16:35.440
and I hope we can have you all back again soon once we figure out what actually happens so thank

1480
02:16:35.440 --> 02:16:37.440
you so much I appreciate a lot thank you

1481
02:16:49.680 --> 02:16:52.240
you