WEBVTT

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So there are five scenarios in which the war could end,

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because the Trumpers stupid enough to take on what Israel wanted to do,

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which was destroy Iran, but they're bitten off far more than they can chew.

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So scenario one is Iran destroys the Gulf Power Infrastructure.

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I think that's highly likely.

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And if that happens, then Saudi Arabia, Qatar,

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you've got either all become uninhabitable.

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And then scenario two, Iran disables Israel's New York's.

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I hope that happens, but there's this one.

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And it scares the shit out of me.

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Professor Steve, I have so many questions.

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What is going on?

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So this war is threatening everybody on the planet.

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And what Trump is doing at the moment is a pump and dump scheme.

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He's trying to drive up the oil price

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and exploiting it for his friends and for his own wealth in the process.

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So people are focusing upon the price of this,

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but the really important point is this, this is straight up hummus.

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So oil, fertilizer, helium,

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all have to pass through the straight up hummus.

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And Iran have blocked that gap.

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So they can say, you do or do not pass,

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depending on what your country's attitude towards our country.

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And that's quite terrifying because 20 to 30 percent

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of our fertilizer comes from at this point.

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But if this is not available, the globe has a famine.

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Do you think he will send ground troops in?

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Yes, I do, but I'd hate to be one of those troops

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because it's our suicide mission.

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They've got underground military units,

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weapons and troops, but we have no idea of the scale.

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Trump keeps saying that the war has been won.

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Yeah, what's going on there in your view?

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I think he's been fed propaganda to tell him

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that he's winning the war by his immediate advisors

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because you cannot sell a person like that

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that they've made a mistake.

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We'll talk about that as well,

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but you've developed a bit of a reputation

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because you're very good at predicting things.

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So which of these five outcomes

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do you think is most probable to happen?

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Oh God.

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Guys, I've got a favor to ask before this episode begins.

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So when we have our best episodes on this show,

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the most shared episodes, the most rated episodes,

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I would love you to know.

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And the simple way for you to know that

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is to hit that follow button.

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Thank you so, so, so much.

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Professor Steven, who, who are you?

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If you had to sort of distill it down

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to three areas of specialism, what would those be?

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History of economics thought, financial instability,

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so that what causes volatility in the economy

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and the dynamics of money.

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And ironically, it makes me a minority in economics

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because most economists ignore money completely.

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So strange thing to you.

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It's ridiculous, but it's true.

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We'll talk about that as well today.

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I really want to focus on what's going on in the world right now

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because there's so many questions.

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It's all quite confusing.

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Extremely.

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And understanding the layers of motivation

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that, you know, Trump has around half, Israel have

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is, it's a difficult jigsaw puzzle to put together.

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I guess the question that I keep asking myself

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is like, what is going on?

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You can't get away from the fact that we're basically

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elected to Mafia Don to President of the United States.

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You've got a guy who admires the Mafia

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who's running the country.

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So what we're getting in some ways

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is a shake down rather than anything

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driven by any sense of political necessity.

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So that's, that's a crazy element to begin with.

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And the American deep state, as it's called,

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has been anti Iran for 40 or 50 years.

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Israel has wanted to defeat Iran for that length of time.

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Trump is stupid enough, but also canning enough

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to combination with the two, to take on

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what Israel wanted to do, which was destroy Iran.

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They're now trying to do it and they're finding

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that they've bitten off far more than they can chew.

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Trump is someone who cares a lot about people's opinions

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of him.

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And he must have known that this would be politically unpopular

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to target around it this moment in time.

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I don't think so.

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I had a relationship with somebody

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with narcissistic personality disorder.

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So that's something over and above what I learned

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academically that I, when I think about his behavior,

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and somebody like that, they want to be the center

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of attention at all times.

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They can't stand it when somebody else

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has been spoken about.

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It's ridiculous, but it's, it's a pathology.

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So he's interested in people's opinions

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so long as they're positive and they're about him.

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So you're saying that he attacked Iran

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and started this war in part because he wanted attention?

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That's always something that somebody

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who's got that disorder.

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Yeah.

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I mean, what do you think about his rationale?

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He's saying that he attacked Iran

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because they had nuclear weapons

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and they were, it was an imminent threat.

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We still don't know whether Iran has nuclear weapons, okay?

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We know that Israel has.

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If you're going to attack a country

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and you should attack Israel, not Iran,

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but you can't attack Israel, can you?

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I cannot make sense of what politicians all over the planet

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are doing these days.

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There's a huge gap between what politicians

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are saying about global politics

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and what people in the street are saying about it.

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So people on the street have seen the Gaza genocide.

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They've seen all the conflicts Israel has started there.

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And I think the general sentiment in most countries

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in the world today is anti-Israel

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because of the way it's treating the Palestinians.

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And that's what people are thinking about.

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The top echelons, like in this country, as you know,

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if I say free Palestine, I say that outside on the street,

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I can be arrested.

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It's crazy.

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What, there's a huge divorce between what people are thinking

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and what the politicians are saying.

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And I can't give any explanation

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for that divorce apart from believing

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that Israel has something over our political leaders.

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Would you mean you think they have something

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over our political leaders?

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I think there are, we know about the whole Epstein

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The way that Iranians refer to what's happening

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is they say they're fighting the Epstein class.

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And there's belief that there's something where Epstein

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has been working for the Israeli intelligence service

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and has blackmailed worthy material

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on a huge range of politicians.

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And that's the only way that I can explain

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the sort of things the politicians are supporting

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when they're populace is angry about those same policies.

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So you get demonstrations here in a free Palestine

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demonstrations, 80 year old female vickers

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being arrested for saying this sort of stuff.

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You go back 40 years ago, there was a belief in the public

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and a belief amongst the politicians

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that Israel had a right to exist

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and it was all pro-Israel.

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And now after 40 years, the type of abuses

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that have happened in Palestine

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have hit individual ordinary peoples attitudes to Israel.

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So ordinary people are saying Israel's the aggressor,

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Israel's making the mistakes.

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But the politicians are all saying it's anti-Semitic

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to criticize Israel.

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If you had to give a one sentence answered

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as to why this war started,

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because we sort of hypothesized a few things there,

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what would that one sentence answer be?

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Again, this is trying to make sense of the senseless.

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I just think Israel wanted to destroy Iran.

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They thought they could do it

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and they thought they had an American president

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who would help them do it.

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And they drastically underestimated

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how prepared Iran was for that conflict.

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Why would Israel want to destroy Iran?

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What's the butt context there?

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This goes back to religious elements.

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The Zionist state had the right to that whole region

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and there's an expansionist element to Israel's behavior

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for the last 40 years.

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And the major rival they saw themselves as having in that sense

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was Iran, they can invade Jordan,

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they could attack Lebanon, they could do all these things.

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Of course, they, the 67 war, they wiped out

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the Israeli invading Arabian armies and six days.

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They have this past history

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of being militarily dominant in the area.

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And they knew that Iran was too big

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for them to take on on their own.

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They thought they could get the Americans in there

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and I think they drastically underestimated

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how prepared Iran was for this situation.

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When you say Iran were prepared for this situation

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and it's somewhat surprised Israel and the US,

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what is that preparedness you're speaking about?

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Well, it's for a start, the fact that Iran witnessed

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that there were decapitation attacks

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on other countries in the region,

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going way, way back, not just the last 10 years

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but the last 40 or 50 years.

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And the decapitation attack.

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You take off the leader, you kill the leaders.

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And then the leaders killed the armies in disarray

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and you can come in and invade and take over.

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So getting rid of Saddam Hussein, that sort of thing.

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You know, wipe out Saddam Hussein's power base

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and then the whole system collapses.

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That was the Iraq story.

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But the Iranians observed that

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and they have broken their military into 31 divisions.

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There were 31 provinces like 31 states in that sense

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inside Iran.

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Their military has broken into those 31 units.

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They've got their own failsafe system

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running in the background.

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They've got their own resources,

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their own missiles, production systems,

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all that sort of stuff.

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So you've got to take at the whole 31

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and then they'd have that sub-area.

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So the only way you can beat the countries

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by literally bombing it back to the Stone Age,

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which appears to be what they've been trying to do.

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Trying to do, but the thing is it's a huge country.

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I mean, look at the scale of around them.

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The map's always distort how large.

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So that is larger.

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That's more than half the size of Western Europe.

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It's got a population of 90 million

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about one third or one quarter of the population of Europe.

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Far more than Iraq.

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I mean, it looks like it's doubled the size of the UK.

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Or more or more than double.

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I mean, you know, one thing about them, a cater projection.

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No, what's that?

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It's that it's, it makes the Northern Hemispheres

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twice as large as the Southern.

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And around them the Northern Hemispheres,

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but not as far north as England.

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So the distortion gets amplified the further north you go.

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So it's bigger than France and Germany and Italy

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and Spain and possibly Poland in terms of area.

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And then if you even see just looking on the map itself,

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you can see the corrugations there versus what you can see

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for the corrugation, the representing mountains.

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OK, there's more mountains inside there.

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It's a horrendous terrain to fight a war on.

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I think what Trump is doing at the moment is a pump and dump scheme.

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He's trying to drive up the oil price,

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tell friends beforehand that he's about to make an announcement

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which will cause a price to fall.

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And he's just oscillating this way up and down

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and exploiting it for his friends

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and for his own wealth in the process.

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Do you actually think that's the case?

263
00:10:39.520 --> 00:10:40.520
Yeah, I do.

264
00:10:40.520 --> 00:10:41.520
I mean, this must be hunting.

265
00:10:41.520 --> 00:10:42.880
How much did it make sense of this stuff?

266
00:10:42.880 --> 00:10:44.400
This must be hunting his friends economically

267
00:10:44.400 --> 00:10:47.960
because the stock market's going to take a dip if he's not careful.

268
00:10:47.960 --> 00:10:50.880
And his friends are all shahled as in different big companies.

269
00:10:50.880 --> 00:10:52.400
So you know, and also limited energy.

270
00:10:52.400 --> 00:10:55.040
But if you know, one of Keynes's great lines

271
00:10:55.040 --> 00:10:57.440
was that there's no point in buying a stock

272
00:10:57.440 --> 00:11:00.160
which you think is going to increase in value over time,

273
00:11:00.160 --> 00:11:03.040
if you think it's going to slump in the immediate future.

274
00:11:03.040 --> 00:11:06.400
So he's making an announcement which causes oil markets to panic

275
00:11:06.400 --> 00:11:07.800
so the price goes up.

276
00:11:07.800 --> 00:11:10.160
So we're given him control of the most powerful country

277
00:11:10.160 --> 00:11:11.320
on the planet.

278
00:11:11.320 --> 00:11:14.600
He knows if he make an announcement at MERS markets.

279
00:11:14.600 --> 00:11:18.200
He has no compunction whatsoever in exporting that

280
00:11:18.200 --> 00:11:20.600
to cause rises and falls in prices

281
00:11:20.600 --> 00:11:23.480
and try to exploit them himself and with his friends.

282
00:11:23.480 --> 00:11:24.320
I mean, I did see that.

283
00:11:24.320 --> 00:11:27.120
I've got the data here on the floor showing those graphs.

284
00:11:27.120 --> 00:11:30.440
I generally looked at that and thought, you know, maybe.

285
00:11:30.440 --> 00:11:32.880
But it's also conceivable that Trump is quite

286
00:11:32.880 --> 00:11:35.760
predictable character and he tweets at the same time every day.

287
00:11:35.760 --> 00:11:38.000
And it's also, I think, me and you both know

288
00:11:38.000 --> 00:11:40.400
that before the market's open on a Monday morning,

289
00:11:40.400 --> 00:11:43.000
he's going to want to say something really positive.

290
00:11:43.000 --> 00:11:44.480
He has a track record of doing that.

291
00:11:44.480 --> 00:11:46.960
So is it conceivable that they knew he was flying

292
00:11:46.960 --> 00:11:49.720
because it was track that he was going to be on this plane journey.

293
00:11:49.720 --> 00:11:51.280
There's going to be a press gaggle.

294
00:11:51.280 --> 00:11:52.640
We know he's going to give an interview.

295
00:11:52.640 --> 00:11:53.920
I actually think I was quite predictable.

296
00:11:53.920 --> 00:11:56.120
If I was betting that, I would have gone Sunday night,

297
00:11:56.120 --> 00:11:59.760
I would have put a bet on oil prices coming down

298
00:11:59.760 --> 00:12:01.000
the stock market going out.

299
00:12:01.000 --> 00:12:03.080
Yeah, I'd like for example, one of the things

300
00:12:03.080 --> 00:12:05.320
he said most recently, he talked about getting a present

301
00:12:05.320 --> 00:12:06.400
from around.

302
00:12:06.400 --> 00:12:08.360
And then he finally let's look at what the present was

303
00:12:08.360 --> 00:12:11.480
and was letting eight ships through the strait of hormones.

304
00:12:11.480 --> 00:12:12.480
Oh, I can.

305
00:12:12.480 --> 00:12:15.440
Now that those eight ships were not American.

306
00:12:15.440 --> 00:12:17.080
They were other hours.

307
00:12:17.080 --> 00:12:19.440
I think what he's thinking is these,

308
00:12:19.440 --> 00:12:22.440
that's going to mean the oil market gets calmed down.

309
00:12:22.440 --> 00:12:24.800
That means the price is going to fall.

310
00:12:24.800 --> 00:12:26.720
So I can then do another pump and dump.

311
00:12:26.720 --> 00:12:29.280
Let's explain the straight of hormones.

312
00:12:29.280 --> 00:12:29.880
Oh, God.

313
00:12:29.880 --> 00:12:30.640
Yeah, OK.

314
00:12:30.640 --> 00:12:32.960
Is it if we had to explain it for 16 year olds?

315
00:12:32.960 --> 00:12:34.320
Because there's been lots of coverage on it.

316
00:12:34.320 --> 00:12:36.000
I think some people have kind of skipped past

317
00:12:36.000 --> 00:12:38.080
the importance of the region.

318
00:12:38.080 --> 00:12:40.440
What is the strait of hormones and why does it matter?

319
00:12:40.440 --> 00:12:43.320
Well, that's the choke point in this Persian Gulf.

320
00:12:43.320 --> 00:12:45.560
To get through, you've got like 21 kilometers.

321
00:12:45.560 --> 00:12:49.280
OK, that's an incredibly narrow gap for ships to pass through.

322
00:12:49.280 --> 00:12:52.600
And that means that all the countries that pump not just oil,

323
00:12:52.600 --> 00:12:56.360
but fertilizer, helium, all these critical elements

324
00:12:56.360 --> 00:12:59.360
for the production system all have to pass through this point.

325
00:12:59.360 --> 00:13:03.040
And obviously, that's well within reach of any weapons from Iran.

326
00:13:03.040 --> 00:13:05.400
So they can say, you do or do not pass,

327
00:13:05.400 --> 00:13:07.560
depending on whether we approve or don't approve

328
00:13:07.560 --> 00:13:10.800
if your country's attitude towards our country.

329
00:13:10.800 --> 00:13:14.600
You said fertilizer, oil, and helium?

330
00:13:14.600 --> 00:13:15.400
Yeah, helium.

331
00:13:15.400 --> 00:13:16.680
Where are they coming from?

332
00:13:16.680 --> 00:13:18.440
They're mainly coming from, I think, from mainly

333
00:13:18.440 --> 00:13:20.080
from the Saudi Arabian side.

334
00:13:20.080 --> 00:13:21.160
OK, Saudi Arabian.

335
00:13:21.160 --> 00:13:23.000
Like Iran will have the same things,

336
00:13:23.000 --> 00:13:26.160
but Iran would keep those for themselves.

337
00:13:26.160 --> 00:13:30.640
But Saudi Arabia is the main source of gases and oils

338
00:13:30.640 --> 00:13:32.680
which are refined in its byproducts.

339
00:13:32.680 --> 00:13:35.560
We get sulphur dioxide and we get helium.

340
00:13:35.560 --> 00:13:36.480
This is the helium?

341
00:13:36.480 --> 00:13:37.000
Yeah.

342
00:13:37.000 --> 00:13:40.400
OK, that's a couple of kilos of helium.

343
00:13:40.400 --> 00:13:44.680
But helium, it's an element which there's no substitute.

344
00:13:44.680 --> 00:13:47.480
So helium is inert.

345
00:13:47.480 --> 00:13:48.240
What does that mean?

346
00:13:48.240 --> 00:13:50.160
It means it doesn't interact with other chemicals.

347
00:13:50.160 --> 00:13:51.360
You want to give it a try?

348
00:13:51.360 --> 00:13:52.200
I've never done it.

349
00:13:52.200 --> 00:13:53.280
I don't think there's any in here.

350
00:13:53.280 --> 00:13:53.960
I want a pity.

351
00:13:53.960 --> 00:13:56.120
OK, whatever they give it a try.

352
00:13:56.240 --> 00:13:58.840
You got any real helium?

353
00:13:58.840 --> 00:14:00.600
Oh, bloody hell, helium balloon.

354
00:14:00.600 --> 00:14:01.600
OK.

355
00:14:04.960 --> 00:14:06.240
Does it change your voice?

356
00:14:06.240 --> 00:14:07.560
I don't know, is my voice changed?

357
00:14:07.560 --> 00:14:09.040
It did.

358
00:14:09.040 --> 00:14:10.640
I'll give my voice a try, OK.

359
00:14:10.640 --> 00:14:11.640
OK.

360
00:14:11.640 --> 00:14:13.320
OK, I've never done this before.

361
00:14:13.320 --> 00:14:14.320
I've heard of the parties.

362
00:14:17.320 --> 00:14:22.080
OK, now, I think my voice has changed somewhat from a...

363
00:14:22.080 --> 00:14:23.520
The fact you can do it.

364
00:14:23.520 --> 00:14:24.440
Oh, my God.

365
00:14:27.120 --> 00:14:29.000
OK, there's a rhyme.

366
00:14:29.000 --> 00:14:29.800
OK.

367
00:14:29.800 --> 00:14:31.400
Where is helium coming from?

368
00:14:31.400 --> 00:14:33.160
It's coming from a gas field.

369
00:14:33.160 --> 00:14:36.160
So about 30% of the world's helium comes from a gas field

370
00:14:36.160 --> 00:14:39.760
which spans both Saudi Arabia and Iran.

371
00:14:39.760 --> 00:14:42.640
If you don't trap helium physically, somehow,

372
00:14:42.640 --> 00:14:44.200
it'll goes to outer space.

373
00:14:44.200 --> 00:14:46.280
That's the ultimate destination of the stuff.

374
00:14:46.280 --> 00:14:48.840
So it's trapped in the same things that trap oil.

375
00:14:48.840 --> 00:14:50.760
And then when you drill for oil,

376
00:14:50.760 --> 00:14:52.880
you also get helium coming out.

377
00:14:52.880 --> 00:14:54.960
And then helium is absolutely critical

378
00:14:54.960 --> 00:14:56.920
for the semiconductor industry.

379
00:14:56.920 --> 00:14:58.400
It didn't matter 100 years ago.

380
00:14:58.400 --> 00:15:00.320
And semiconductors are important for what?

381
00:15:00.320 --> 00:15:01.000
Everything.

382
00:15:01.000 --> 00:15:03.680
I mean, you've taken the semiconductors out of that.

383
00:15:03.680 --> 00:15:05.680
You've got a brick, OK?

384
00:15:05.680 --> 00:15:09.480
The processors, the CPUs, the memory chips.

385
00:15:09.480 --> 00:15:10.440
They're all made.

386
00:15:10.440 --> 00:15:12.640
Helium is an essential element to make them.

387
00:15:12.640 --> 00:15:14.640
For iPhones or tablets or everything.

388
00:15:14.640 --> 00:15:15.680
Everything electronic.

389
00:15:15.680 --> 00:15:18.160
If you need semiconductors, you need helium.

390
00:15:18.160 --> 00:15:20.920
So if you cut off 30% of the world's helium supply,

391
00:15:20.920 --> 00:15:24.640
you cut off the capacity to produce 30% of the world's

392
00:15:24.680 --> 00:15:25.720
semiconductors.

393
00:15:25.720 --> 00:15:27.760
And Iran have blocked that gap.

394
00:15:27.760 --> 00:15:31.000
And that means that we're suddenly lost 30% of the world's helium.

395
00:15:31.000 --> 00:15:32.520
I've got a quote from March 20, 206,

396
00:15:32.520 --> 00:15:35.640
from leading helium expert, Phil Cornblutch.

397
00:15:35.640 --> 00:15:38.560
He said, we're looking at a minimum two to three months

398
00:15:38.560 --> 00:15:40.440
shut down of helium production

399
00:15:40.440 --> 00:15:43.840
with up to six months before supply gets back to normal.

400
00:15:43.840 --> 00:15:46.200
And he explains, you can't stockpile helium

401
00:15:46.200 --> 00:15:48.480
because it leaks through containers.

402
00:15:48.480 --> 00:15:51.280
So once suppliers cut off, semiconductor production

403
00:15:51.280 --> 00:15:53.160
will stop entirely.

404
00:15:53.160 --> 00:15:57.840
South Korea gets 65% of its helium from Qatar in that region

405
00:15:57.840 --> 00:16:00.560
and makes two thirds of the world's memory chips.

406
00:16:00.560 --> 00:16:02.560
Their government has launched an emergency investigation

407
00:16:02.560 --> 00:16:03.680
into the shortage.

408
00:16:03.680 --> 00:16:04.840
Nobody's talking about this.

409
00:16:04.840 --> 00:16:05.360
I know.

410
00:16:05.360 --> 00:16:07.760
And this is one reason that it's quite terrifying

411
00:16:07.760 --> 00:16:09.840
about the scale of what we're going through.

412
00:16:09.840 --> 00:16:11.280
Because people are just thinking it's going to be

413
00:16:11.280 --> 00:16:12.680
oil's going to be more expensive.

414
00:16:12.680 --> 00:16:15.240
That's the sort of mindset we have.

415
00:16:15.240 --> 00:16:18.680
But in fact, critical elements of the production system

416
00:16:18.680 --> 00:16:20.800
are being terminated by this conflict.

417
00:16:20.800 --> 00:16:22.560
You can't produce chips anymore.

418
00:16:22.560 --> 00:16:23.920
And you can't, well, you've got to hang on.

419
00:16:23.920 --> 00:16:25.760
You can't produce these chips either

420
00:16:25.760 --> 00:16:27.760
because the fertilizer is disappearing.

421
00:16:27.760 --> 00:16:29.520
So you're holding a potato in your hand.

422
00:16:29.520 --> 00:16:30.320
Yeah.

423
00:16:30.320 --> 00:16:33.240
How are potato chips going to be impacted by the world?

424
00:16:33.240 --> 00:16:34.960
Because of fertilizer.

425
00:16:34.960 --> 00:16:36.280
If we don't have the fertilizer,

426
00:16:36.280 --> 00:16:37.520
we can't grow the potatoes.

427
00:16:37.520 --> 00:16:38.800
Sometimes it's not just potatoes.

428
00:16:38.800 --> 00:16:40.360
It's the whole range of crops.

429
00:16:40.360 --> 00:16:41.440
We eat food, OK?

430
00:16:41.440 --> 00:16:42.800
We eat this green stuff.

431
00:16:42.800 --> 00:16:44.840
It actually starts as brown stuff

432
00:16:44.840 --> 00:16:47.520
because the fertilizer is an essential part

433
00:16:47.520 --> 00:16:49.040
of growing all the food we eat.

434
00:16:49.040 --> 00:16:51.600
And the fertilizer is produced by a process

435
00:16:51.600 --> 00:16:55.400
called the Haber Bosch process, which takes petroleum

436
00:16:55.400 --> 00:16:57.920
and nitrogen and fixes them in such a way

437
00:16:57.920 --> 00:16:59.800
that you can put this on the field

438
00:16:59.800 --> 00:17:03.000
and your plants will grow courtesy of the fertilizer.

439
00:17:03.000 --> 00:17:05.240
If we didn't have fertilizer at all,

440
00:17:05.240 --> 00:17:08.080
guess how many billion people the planet could actually

441
00:17:08.080 --> 00:17:08.760
support?

442
00:17:08.760 --> 00:17:09.520
I don't know.

443
00:17:09.520 --> 00:17:10.960
Between one and two.

444
00:17:10.960 --> 00:17:12.560
And fertilizer comes from this region?

445
00:17:12.560 --> 00:17:14.640
Again, 20 to 30 percent of our fertilizer

446
00:17:14.640 --> 00:17:15.640
comes through that region.

447
00:17:15.640 --> 00:17:16.880
Through the straight of our moss.

448
00:17:16.880 --> 00:17:17.840
Through the straight of our moss.

449
00:17:17.840 --> 00:17:19.160
Why is it coming from?

450
00:17:19.160 --> 00:17:21.600
It's coming again from the same gas field

451
00:17:21.600 --> 00:17:23.360
that's producing the helium.

452
00:17:23.360 --> 00:17:26.240
Produces a side effect of fertilizer.

453
00:17:26.240 --> 00:17:28.760
And you need, you know, I'm not a chemist, OK?

454
00:17:28.760 --> 00:17:30.360
So I can get these things wrong.

455
00:17:30.360 --> 00:17:32.960
But you need sulfuric acid as well

456
00:17:32.960 --> 00:17:34.920
as part of these production processes.

457
00:17:34.920 --> 00:17:37.880
20 percent of the world's fertilizer, helium,

458
00:17:37.880 --> 00:17:41.480
sulfuric acid, all pass through that straight.

459
00:17:41.480 --> 00:17:43.000
And if you take them away, then you

460
00:17:43.000 --> 00:17:46.640
can't make microchips, which is what Korea is suffering from.

461
00:17:46.640 --> 00:17:50.960
You can't make fertilizer, which everybody will suffer from.

462
00:17:50.960 --> 00:17:53.520
If we lost 20 percent of the world's fertilizer,

463
00:17:53.520 --> 00:17:56.080
we'd lose roughly 20 percent of the world's food.

464
00:17:56.080 --> 00:17:57.280
And it calls a global famine.

465
00:17:57.280 --> 00:17:59.200
We've never had this experience before.

466
00:17:59.200 --> 00:18:01.880
We've had localized famines, you know, countries like India

467
00:18:01.880 --> 00:18:04.680
have had famines and parts of Africa and so on.

468
00:18:04.680 --> 00:18:07.280
But if this is not available, the globe has a famine.

469
00:18:07.280 --> 00:18:09.280
And what's the last tank you've got down there?

470
00:18:09.280 --> 00:18:10.120
There's one more on the floor.

471
00:18:10.120 --> 00:18:12.640
Oh my god, OK.

472
00:18:12.640 --> 00:18:13.520
Hey, that's pretty good.

473
00:18:13.520 --> 00:18:16.240
It was accidental, but that's petroleum, OK?

474
00:18:16.240 --> 00:18:19.080
That's the petroleum tank, obviously, empty, 20 litres.

475
00:18:19.080 --> 00:18:20.000
So that's oil?

476
00:18:20.000 --> 00:18:20.800
That's oil.

477
00:18:20.800 --> 00:18:21.360
Oil, OK.

478
00:18:21.360 --> 00:18:23.560
And so if that's what we're losing right now,

479
00:18:23.560 --> 00:18:26.200
and people are focusing upon the price of this,

480
00:18:26.200 --> 00:18:28.120
but the really important point, and I can bring up

481
00:18:28.120 --> 00:18:33.400
one of my own charts here, is the role of energy in production.

482
00:18:33.400 --> 00:18:37.320
Because if we don't have energy, we can't produce goods and services.

483
00:18:37.320 --> 00:18:39.440
And the link is incredibly tight.

484
00:18:39.440 --> 00:18:44.440
This is looking at change in energy and change in gross world product

485
00:18:44.440 --> 00:18:45.960
over the last 40 years.

486
00:18:45.960 --> 00:18:47.880
I'll throw this graph on the screen for people that I want to say.

487
00:18:47.880 --> 00:18:52.560
So what you've got here is the annual percentage change in gross world product

488
00:18:52.560 --> 00:18:55.760
and the annual percentage change in gross energy consumption.

489
00:18:55.760 --> 00:18:58.960
And they're virtually lockstep and they're the same magnitude.

490
00:18:58.960 --> 00:19:00.920
So when energy goes up, GDP goes up.

491
00:19:00.920 --> 00:19:03.200
And when energy goes down, GDP goes down.

492
00:19:03.200 --> 00:19:07.960
Now we're losing 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas,

493
00:19:07.960 --> 00:19:10.480
a substantial proportion of its oil as well.

494
00:19:10.480 --> 00:19:13.640
We could see a 5% or 10% fall in energy.

495
00:19:13.640 --> 00:19:18.080
We will certainly see a 5% or 10% fall in global world gross world product.

496
00:19:18.080 --> 00:19:18.840
So explain that to me.

497
00:19:18.840 --> 00:19:20.880
So where is the oil in this region?

498
00:19:20.880 --> 00:19:21.920
It's everywhere.

499
00:19:21.920 --> 00:19:22.400
OK.

500
00:19:22.400 --> 00:19:24.760
I mean, there's one of the accidents of history

501
00:19:24.760 --> 00:19:27.760
that the oil is a large part is concentrated here,

502
00:19:27.760 --> 00:19:29.880
and a large part over here, and a bit in Russia.

503
00:19:29.880 --> 00:19:31.920
So over here, for people that can't see,

504
00:19:31.920 --> 00:19:33.480
you're pointing at a run.

505
00:19:33.480 --> 00:19:35.160
And there's a lot in the United States.

506
00:19:35.160 --> 00:19:36.120
Iraq.

507
00:19:36.120 --> 00:19:38.200
And then there's a lot in the United States.

508
00:19:38.200 --> 00:19:39.200
And there's a lot more.

509
00:19:39.200 --> 00:19:40.320
You've got some in Russia as well.

510
00:19:40.320 --> 00:19:42.160
There was a small amount, like the North Sea,

511
00:19:42.160 --> 00:19:45.360
had a substantial amount of oil as well at one stage.

512
00:19:45.360 --> 00:19:48.280
And the type of oil in this region, I hear, is quite important.

513
00:19:48.280 --> 00:19:51.400
It's very, I mean, oil, there's no such thing

514
00:19:51.400 --> 00:19:52.760
as a homogenous product.

515
00:19:52.760 --> 00:19:53.720
What does homogenous mean?

516
00:19:53.720 --> 00:19:55.720
I mean, everything is the same everywhere.

517
00:19:55.720 --> 00:19:57.080
You can, if you don't get it here,

518
00:19:57.080 --> 00:19:59.240
you can substitute for something over here.

519
00:19:59.240 --> 00:20:02.440
That's a myth that economists actually, unfortunately, believe.

520
00:20:02.440 --> 00:20:04.560
They basically could persuade people to think

521
00:20:04.560 --> 00:20:06.040
that everything is homogenous.

522
00:20:06.040 --> 00:20:09.360
In fact, oil from Venezuela is almost like tar.

523
00:20:09.360 --> 00:20:12.400
Oil from here is blows like water comparatively.

524
00:20:12.400 --> 00:20:16.360
You need different processing systems to extract that oil

525
00:20:16.360 --> 00:20:17.960
than you need over here.

526
00:20:17.960 --> 00:20:19.760
If we lose this, we can't replace it

527
00:20:19.760 --> 00:20:21.520
with something from over here.

528
00:20:21.520 --> 00:20:24.640
So once that goes, then the production system

529
00:20:24.640 --> 00:20:26.840
of the planet is damaged.

530
00:20:26.840 --> 00:20:30.920
This has been the shocking thing for me as a citizen.

531
00:20:30.920 --> 00:20:34.200
Has been the fact that a war with one country

532
00:20:34.200 --> 00:20:38.320
could decapitate what 20% to 30% of the global production.

533
00:20:38.320 --> 00:20:41.840
Global production of oil and food.

534
00:20:41.840 --> 00:20:43.560
That's a vulnerability if I've ever heard one.

535
00:20:43.560 --> 00:20:45.360
I know, and this is like one reason

536
00:20:45.360 --> 00:20:47.000
I'm a critic of mainstream economics

537
00:20:47.000 --> 00:20:48.680
is they trivialize all this stuff.

538
00:20:48.680 --> 00:20:51.520
They don't teach their students how critical this is.

539
00:20:51.520 --> 00:20:53.200
So most people will like you,

540
00:20:53.200 --> 00:20:55.560
even people who've done a PhD in economics,

541
00:20:55.560 --> 00:20:58.280
even worse in that sense than other people.

542
00:20:58.280 --> 00:21:01.040
They don't understand how critical and how fragile

543
00:21:01.040 --> 00:21:02.640
our production systems are.

544
00:21:02.640 --> 00:21:04.240
So people can talk about a war in Iraq

545
00:21:04.240 --> 00:21:05.520
and think, oh, that's a war in Iran

546
00:21:05.520 --> 00:21:07.360
and that's going to cut off our oil supply.

547
00:21:07.360 --> 00:21:09.680
No, it's going to cut off your food supply.

548
00:21:09.680 --> 00:21:11.520
And for the average person listening now,

549
00:21:11.520 --> 00:21:13.160
what will they start to experience

550
00:21:13.160 --> 00:21:16.640
if this war doesn't immediately end?

551
00:21:16.640 --> 00:21:20.080
Two or three months, India's going to run out of fertilizer.

552
00:21:20.080 --> 00:21:22.080
And so there'll be a famine in India.

553
00:21:22.080 --> 00:21:26.320
Food production on the planet could fall 10, 25%.

554
00:21:26.320 --> 00:21:29.080
And therefore, there simply won't be enough food

555
00:21:29.080 --> 00:21:30.560
for everyone on the planet.

556
00:21:30.560 --> 00:21:33.280
And then it's a question of who's going to starve.

557
00:21:33.280 --> 00:21:36.400
Now, you think the wealthy countries are going to be safe.

558
00:21:36.400 --> 00:21:38.880
They've blocked for Australia, my old home country,

559
00:21:38.880 --> 00:21:41.480
has about 30 days oil supply.

560
00:21:41.480 --> 00:21:43.320
When it runs out, it can't get food

561
00:21:43.320 --> 00:21:45.880
from the farm to the city anymore.

562
00:21:45.880 --> 00:21:48.200
So Australia is incredibly vulnerable.

563
00:21:48.200 --> 00:21:50.720
We're all far more vulnerable than we realize.

564
00:21:50.720 --> 00:21:53.520
And this war is threatening everybody on the planet.

565
00:21:53.520 --> 00:21:56.680
I got on a new BS today and I was with a wonderful guy

566
00:21:56.680 --> 00:21:59.880
who was, actually, weirdly, I sat to the Uber at 2 a.m.

567
00:21:59.880 --> 00:22:01.280
And I looked up on the screen and he was listening

568
00:22:01.280 --> 00:22:02.640
to the driver of the CEO and then he clocked,

569
00:22:02.640 --> 00:22:03.520
he clocked me in the back of the car,

570
00:22:03.520 --> 00:22:04.680
so we had a great chat.

571
00:22:04.680 --> 00:22:06.320
And he was saying to me, listen,

572
00:22:06.320 --> 00:22:07.520
this isn't actually my main job.

573
00:22:07.520 --> 00:22:08.720
It's my third job.

574
00:22:08.720 --> 00:22:10.560
I do this because of the cost of living.

575
00:22:10.560 --> 00:22:11.800
And it really stayed with me.

576
00:22:11.800 --> 00:22:13.320
The streets are doing three jobs.

577
00:22:13.320 --> 00:22:14.360
Three jobs, yeah.

578
00:22:14.360 --> 00:22:15.200
Three jobs.

579
00:22:15.200 --> 00:22:16.680
And he picked me up at 2 a.m.

580
00:22:16.680 --> 00:22:18.000
He's got a family.

581
00:22:18.000 --> 00:22:20.320
And he's working his butt off to keep the family alive.

582
00:22:20.320 --> 00:22:21.400
Yes.

583
00:22:21.400 --> 00:22:22.440
And you know, I'm going to say something,

584
00:22:22.440 --> 00:22:24.960
which I probably, I don't say a lot,

585
00:22:24.960 --> 00:22:30.120
which came to mind, which is, in the position I'm in now,

586
00:22:30.120 --> 00:22:34.120
I think it was a real reminder of my own personal privilege

587
00:22:34.160 --> 00:22:36.080
that I think is really important for someone like me

588
00:22:36.080 --> 00:22:37.520
that doesn't has an interview show

589
00:22:37.520 --> 00:22:40.480
because you've got to be intellectually honest with yourself

590
00:22:40.480 --> 00:22:42.160
or just honest with yourself generally,

591
00:22:42.160 --> 00:22:44.200
that as someone in my position

592
00:22:44.200 --> 00:22:45.800
who has been fortunate enough to be able

593
00:22:45.800 --> 00:22:47.640
to make significant money,

594
00:22:47.640 --> 00:22:50.280
I can understand from having that conversation

595
00:22:50.280 --> 00:22:55.280
how detached you are from the world around you.

596
00:22:56.760 --> 00:22:57.600
Yes.

597
00:22:57.600 --> 00:22:58.920
And that's like an integral thing to me.

598
00:22:58.920 --> 00:23:01.560
You're a very unique soul because you,

599
00:23:01.560 --> 00:23:03.680
I know, like read a bit of your history, of course.

600
00:23:03.680 --> 00:23:06.720
And you've had that terrible period where you were unemployed

601
00:23:06.720 --> 00:23:07.560
and what the hell do I do.

602
00:23:07.560 --> 00:23:09.680
So lifting food and stuff and ambitious,

603
00:23:09.680 --> 00:23:11.040
but you were, okay.

604
00:23:11.040 --> 00:23:12.720
If you don't experience poverty,

605
00:23:12.720 --> 00:23:14.120
you don't know what it's like.

606
00:23:14.120 --> 00:23:14.960
Yeah.

607
00:23:14.960 --> 00:23:16.440
But even if you have, you can forget it.

608
00:23:16.440 --> 00:23:17.440
You can forget it.

609
00:23:17.440 --> 00:23:18.560
But you haven't yet.

610
00:23:18.560 --> 00:23:20.000
Well, this is why it's so important for me

611
00:23:20.000 --> 00:23:21.320
to have those conversations

612
00:23:21.320 --> 00:23:23.160
because him saying I'm working three jobs

613
00:23:23.160 --> 00:23:26.160
and this is picking me up at 2 a.m. in his Uber

614
00:23:26.160 --> 00:23:27.920
and him telling me he's doing that

615
00:23:27.920 --> 00:23:30.000
because across the living because he needs to pay the bills

616
00:23:30.000 --> 00:23:31.200
immediately made me think of

617
00:23:31.240 --> 00:23:32.920
ahead of this conversation today.

618
00:23:32.920 --> 00:23:36.400
Like, oh my God, if the prices go up 20% for people.

619
00:23:36.400 --> 00:23:37.240
He's out.

620
00:23:37.240 --> 00:23:38.440
He can't work 24 hours a day.

621
00:23:38.440 --> 00:23:39.960
And you can't work more hours in the day.

622
00:23:39.960 --> 00:23:40.880
And it was just one of those moments

623
00:23:40.880 --> 00:23:42.120
where you go fucking else, he's like, man,

624
00:23:42.120 --> 00:23:45.840
you need to stay close to the plight of people

625
00:23:45.840 --> 00:23:48.120
that are in the breadline, yeah.

626
00:23:48.120 --> 00:23:48.960
Yeah.

627
00:23:48.960 --> 00:23:49.800
And so many people out there.

628
00:23:49.800 --> 00:23:51.680
So many people are in advanced countries,

629
00:23:51.680 --> 00:23:53.960
not just third world countries,

630
00:23:53.960 --> 00:23:56.760
but certainly like in America and the UK.

631
00:23:56.760 --> 00:23:58.000
There are huge numbers of people

632
00:23:58.000 --> 00:24:00.640
who are basically living from hand to mouth

633
00:24:00.640 --> 00:24:01.600
at the current system.

634
00:24:01.600 --> 00:24:04.320
So if we have a breakdown, they can't afford it.

635
00:24:04.320 --> 00:24:09.040
And in that situation, you can no longer use money

636
00:24:09.040 --> 00:24:11.640
as your way of deciding whether you can eat food or not.

637
00:24:11.640 --> 00:24:13.080
I wonder if politicians know this

638
00:24:13.080 --> 00:24:14.480
because apparently, as I say this,

639
00:24:14.480 --> 00:24:16.840
it's because Trump is a very wealthy man

640
00:24:16.840 --> 00:24:18.880
at multi-billionaire reportedly.

641
00:24:18.880 --> 00:24:21.480
And if the prices go up 20% at the pump.

642
00:24:21.480 --> 00:24:22.480
He makes profit.

643
00:24:22.480 --> 00:24:24.800
I mean, he actually, when he said he said in favor

644
00:24:24.800 --> 00:24:27.880
the rising oil price will make a lot of money out of it.

645
00:24:27.880 --> 00:24:30.000
He's a media association rising price

646
00:24:30.000 --> 00:24:33.160
or something that I'm indexed directly selling that's good.

647
00:24:33.160 --> 00:24:35.840
He doesn't say, what about people buying it?

648
00:24:35.840 --> 00:24:37.680
The people who buy it can no longer afford it.

649
00:24:37.680 --> 00:24:40.160
You've got some food there on the table,

650
00:24:40.160 --> 00:24:44.240
which shows how these conflicts

651
00:24:44.240 --> 00:24:47.280
and the pressure they put on some of these scarce resources

652
00:24:47.280 --> 00:24:49.560
can impact our ability to go and buy food.

653
00:24:49.560 --> 00:24:52.720
I think you've got two bowls of the tea tastes.

654
00:24:52.720 --> 00:24:54.520
Well, let's actually make it fairer right now.

655
00:24:54.520 --> 00:24:57.200
Let's get the actual distribution correct initially.

656
00:24:57.200 --> 00:25:02.200
So you are talking about someone who, in your situation,

657
00:25:02.360 --> 00:25:06.320
you've got that locomoopers got this

658
00:25:06.320 --> 00:25:08.800
and now you're taking away the oil price.

659
00:25:08.800 --> 00:25:10.480
That's gonna make Trump better off,

660
00:25:10.480 --> 00:25:12.440
but he's down to the stage where, you know,

661
00:25:12.440 --> 00:25:14.960
he's not too far from that happening.

662
00:25:14.960 --> 00:25:16.560
And that's what we've pushed ourselves into

663
00:25:16.560 --> 00:25:17.400
with this war.

664
00:25:18.800 --> 00:25:23.120
The wars typically make inequality worse.

665
00:25:24.400 --> 00:25:26.200
Very good question.

666
00:25:26.200 --> 00:25:29.920
I think wars created when inequality is bad.

667
00:25:29.920 --> 00:25:31.280
If you go back to the Great Depression

668
00:25:31.280 --> 00:25:33.440
and see what caused World War II,

669
00:25:33.440 --> 00:25:37.840
it was largely the collapse of the German economy

670
00:25:37.840 --> 00:25:41.160
when they repaid their debt, their private debt to America,

671
00:25:41.160 --> 00:25:43.320
or government, private government debt to America,

672
00:25:43.320 --> 00:25:44.760
that led to the rise of Hitler.

673
00:25:44.760 --> 00:25:47.560
Everybody thinks Hitler rose because of the Vimer inflation.

674
00:25:47.560 --> 00:25:49.520
That's what people normally think.

675
00:25:49.520 --> 00:25:53.200
In fact, when Hitler came to power in Germany,

676
00:25:53.200 --> 00:25:56.320
the rate of inflation was minus 10%.

677
00:25:56.320 --> 00:25:58.800
Because deflation, prices were falling.

678
00:25:58.800 --> 00:26:02.440
Unemployment rose from very low to 25% of the population.

679
00:26:02.440 --> 00:26:05.560
In that situation, people supported Hitler.

680
00:26:05.560 --> 00:26:09.760
He revived the economy, happy to talk about how he did that later.

681
00:26:09.760 --> 00:26:14.360
But inequality leads to people being willing to intellect

682
00:26:14.360 --> 00:26:16.560
demagogues to say we can save you

683
00:26:16.560 --> 00:26:18.240
and then you get war coming out of it.

684
00:26:18.240 --> 00:26:22.600
What happened after the World War II is politicians realize

685
00:26:22.600 --> 00:26:24.760
that people had been through the Great Depression,

686
00:26:24.760 --> 00:26:26.160
which was horrific.

687
00:26:26.160 --> 00:26:28.760
And they'd been through World War II, which was horrific.

688
00:26:28.760 --> 00:26:30.960
And in that period, people in America

689
00:26:30.960 --> 00:26:34.120
were talking about either a fascist world

690
00:26:34.120 --> 00:26:35.560
or a communist world.

691
00:26:35.560 --> 00:26:38.240
So the Americans realized they had to improve the living

692
00:26:38.240 --> 00:26:41.480
standards of the average American substantially

693
00:26:41.480 --> 00:26:42.680
to get away from that.

694
00:26:42.680 --> 00:26:45.840
And if you look at it now in the 1950s and 60s,

695
00:26:45.840 --> 00:26:48.840
that's what is called the Golden Age of Capitalism.

696
00:26:48.840 --> 00:26:51.400
Because at that stage, it could be a single male

697
00:26:51.400 --> 00:26:54.520
supporting a wife and four kids

698
00:26:54.520 --> 00:26:58.320
and have a comfortable lifestyle at the time.

699
00:26:58.320 --> 00:26:59.520
That was where we started from.

700
00:26:59.520 --> 00:27:03.280
So the war itself led to a focus upon equality,

701
00:27:03.280 --> 00:27:06.360
a focus upon fairness and getting as much as you can

702
00:27:06.360 --> 00:27:08.360
to the poorest in society.

703
00:27:08.360 --> 00:27:11.960
And then we've forgotten that over the last 80 years.

704
00:27:11.960 --> 00:27:15.000
And we've now got back to massive inequality once more.

705
00:27:15.000 --> 00:27:17.200
So I think inequality causes wars.

706
00:27:17.200 --> 00:27:21.240
Wars in the aftermath make people focus on equality

707
00:27:21.280 --> 00:27:23.200
not to allow that horror to happen once more.

708
00:27:23.200 --> 00:27:25.760
And then we forget and do the whole damn thing again.

709
00:27:25.760 --> 00:27:29.800
One of the surprising things I learned the other day

710
00:27:29.800 --> 00:27:32.360
was that the country that is estimated

711
00:27:32.360 --> 00:27:36.840
to have the biggest reserve of oil is Venezuela.

712
00:27:36.840 --> 00:27:37.520
Yep.

713
00:27:37.520 --> 00:27:40.240
The third country on this list that is estimated

714
00:27:40.240 --> 00:27:44.040
to have the biggest reserve of oil is Iran.

715
00:27:44.040 --> 00:27:45.200
Yeah, yeah.

716
00:27:45.200 --> 00:27:46.800
Now, it doesn't take a genius.

717
00:27:46.800 --> 00:27:49.480
Funnily enough, over two countries have added, yeah.

718
00:27:49.480 --> 00:27:51.440
The second country being America?

719
00:27:51.440 --> 00:27:53.000
Well, it says Saudi Arabia.

720
00:27:53.000 --> 00:27:53.840
Saudi America?

721
00:27:53.840 --> 00:27:55.160
Well, that's already an American vessel.

722
00:27:55.160 --> 00:27:56.440
Yeah, that's already basically,

723
00:27:56.440 --> 00:27:58.680
they're basically partners with America already.

724
00:27:58.680 --> 00:28:01.080
And funnily enough, the fourth one is Canada.

725
00:28:01.080 --> 00:28:03.560
And if you're listening a lot to Trump's rhetoric,

726
00:28:03.560 --> 00:28:04.640
he said he was going to take Canada

727
00:28:04.640 --> 00:28:06.200
and make it the 51st state or something.

728
00:28:06.200 --> 00:28:09.400
So it's just, it doesn't feel to me to be a coincidence

729
00:28:09.400 --> 00:28:11.760
that the countries that the US are invading

730
00:28:11.760 --> 00:28:13.840
into capitating their leaders are the country

731
00:28:13.840 --> 00:28:15.440
that have the biggest oil supplies.

732
00:28:15.440 --> 00:28:17.480
And Trump has already said, you know, immediately.

733
00:28:17.560 --> 00:28:21.280
He said after taking out Maduro and Venezuela,

734
00:28:21.280 --> 00:28:22.720
pulling him out of his bed with his wife

735
00:28:22.720 --> 00:28:24.280
and flying him back to the US.

736
00:28:24.280 --> 00:28:27.160
He already said the oils on the way back to America.

737
00:28:27.160 --> 00:28:28.000
Yeah.

738
00:28:28.000 --> 00:28:30.640
One might assume that much of the motivation here

739
00:28:30.640 --> 00:28:34.320
with Iran is when they were in negotiations with them,

740
00:28:34.320 --> 00:28:37.280
maybe they weren't playing ball with the oil.

741
00:28:37.280 --> 00:28:39.760
Maybe they were threatening something with the oil.

742
00:28:39.760 --> 00:28:42.080
And maybe it's such an economic risk.

743
00:28:42.080 --> 00:28:44.200
Or maybe the vast of Trump's friends,

744
00:28:44.200 --> 00:28:47.040
if he has them, are oil executives

745
00:28:47.040 --> 00:28:48.520
and they can see the benefit for them

746
00:28:48.520 --> 00:28:49.840
in controlling global oil

747
00:28:49.840 --> 00:28:52.040
and the one part they can't control is Iran.

748
00:28:52.040 --> 00:28:54.120
But I mean, it would, it's backflowed pretty horrifically.

749
00:28:54.120 --> 00:28:55.920
I think one of the great sayings in humanity

750
00:28:55.920 --> 00:28:58.880
is it's looked like a good idea at the time.

751
00:28:58.880 --> 00:29:01.800
Then you do it and you realize you underestimated

752
00:29:01.800 --> 00:29:04.880
your opponent, you don't realize how difficult it is.

753
00:29:04.880 --> 00:29:05.880
Like you mentioned, you know,

754
00:29:05.880 --> 00:29:08.120
you're talking about how being wealthy

755
00:29:08.120 --> 00:29:10.560
can make you dissociate from the problems

756
00:29:10.560 --> 00:29:12.080
that ordinary people have.

757
00:29:12.080 --> 00:29:15.160
It can also make you dissociate from reality in general.

758
00:29:15.160 --> 00:29:16.760
You don't realize how difficult it is

759
00:29:16.760 --> 00:29:19.000
to do something you want to have done.

760
00:29:19.000 --> 00:29:21.280
So all these oil executives and people

761
00:29:21.280 --> 00:29:23.760
who Trump socializes with could have thought,

762
00:29:23.760 --> 00:29:27.080
take out Iran, America dominates the global oil thing,

763
00:29:27.080 --> 00:29:28.920
we're all going to be rich, okay?

764
00:29:28.920 --> 00:29:31.440
But they don't realize that Iran's been aware

765
00:29:31.440 --> 00:29:34.520
of this possibility for 40 years and they're prepared,

766
00:29:34.520 --> 00:29:36.800
they're far better prepared than the Americans

767
00:29:36.800 --> 00:29:38.240
and the Israelis thought.

768
00:29:38.240 --> 00:29:40.520
So you've got five scenarios laid out

769
00:29:40.520 --> 00:29:42.040
on these cards in front of you here

770
00:29:42.040 --> 00:29:43.920
that you think could happen next.

771
00:29:43.920 --> 00:29:45.440
I'm gonna ask you to explain to me

772
00:29:45.440 --> 00:29:46.480
what the five scenarios are

773
00:29:46.480 --> 00:29:50.480
and then tell me which one you think is most likely to occur.

774
00:29:50.480 --> 00:29:53.480
So scenario one, which is the one that I think Trump

775
00:29:53.480 --> 00:29:56.000
is, I think Israel wants this one,

776
00:29:56.000 --> 00:29:57.920
Iran is destroyed, okay?

777
00:29:57.920 --> 00:30:00.120
If that happens, we're all gone

778
00:30:00.120 --> 00:30:01.600
because to destroy Iran,

779
00:30:01.600 --> 00:30:04.160
you're gonna have to use nuclear weapons, okay?

780
00:30:04.160 --> 00:30:07.000
You can't destroy it without obliterating it

781
00:30:07.000 --> 00:30:08.720
as nuclear weapons and do.

782
00:30:08.720 --> 00:30:09.920
And that's the scariest.

783
00:30:09.920 --> 00:30:11.560
I don't think it's gonna happen.

784
00:30:11.560 --> 00:30:14.240
My main hope here is that Iran realizes

785
00:30:14.240 --> 00:30:19.160
that possibility, and they've got to wait and neutralize,

786
00:30:19.160 --> 00:30:21.640
not America's nuclear weapons, but Israel's.

787
00:30:21.640 --> 00:30:22.480
You think it's a possibility?

788
00:30:22.480 --> 00:30:24.760
It's a possibility and it's what scares the shit out of me

789
00:30:24.760 --> 00:30:27.640
because if this happens, then we're all dead.

790
00:30:27.640 --> 00:30:29.040
Obviously a nuclear bomb just

791
00:30:29.040 --> 00:30:31.040
and just blow up an individual target

792
00:30:31.040 --> 00:30:33.480
and everything within reach gets exploded

793
00:30:33.480 --> 00:30:34.640
into the atmosphere.

794
00:30:34.640 --> 00:30:36.680
That's what led people to realize

795
00:30:36.680 --> 00:30:38.640
that you couldn't have a nuclear war back in the days

796
00:30:38.640 --> 00:30:41.200
when we had mutually assured destruction.

797
00:30:41.200 --> 00:30:44.560
As the policy, if you attack a country,

798
00:30:44.560 --> 00:30:45.960
then you will also die.

799
00:30:45.960 --> 00:30:47.560
The common use in our own nuclear weapons

800
00:30:47.560 --> 00:30:48.760
is that not a thing?

801
00:30:48.760 --> 00:30:52.240
Well, smaller nuclear weapons.

802
00:30:52.240 --> 00:30:53.800
Well, again, if the country is smaller,

803
00:30:53.800 --> 00:30:56.560
you're talking about destroying Europe.

804
00:30:56.560 --> 00:30:58.080
The weapons you'd need to make sure

805
00:30:58.080 --> 00:31:00.600
you've got every last potential element

806
00:31:00.600 --> 00:31:02.200
of Iran neutralized.

807
00:31:02.200 --> 00:31:03.560
You're talking about bombing something,

808
00:31:03.560 --> 00:31:07.280
which is virtually the size of Western Europe.

809
00:31:07.280 --> 00:31:09.560
The member weapons, you've got to drop to do that.

810
00:31:10.560 --> 00:31:14.120
And you've got to, if you don't get it right,

811
00:31:14.120 --> 00:31:15.240
then they're going to come at you

812
00:31:15.240 --> 00:31:16.560
with what they've got left.

813
00:31:16.560 --> 00:31:18.280
The world has dropped nuclear weapons before

814
00:31:18.280 --> 00:31:19.120
and people survive.

815
00:31:19.120 --> 00:31:21.200
Other neighboring countries survived.

816
00:31:21.200 --> 00:31:23.520
Only twice and only small weapons.

817
00:31:23.520 --> 00:31:24.840
The weapons we're talking about again,

818
00:31:24.840 --> 00:31:27.320
and here are Shreemura and Nagasaki.

819
00:31:27.320 --> 00:31:31.800
They're about equivalent to 20,000 tons of TNT.

820
00:31:31.800 --> 00:31:32.800
We're now talking about weapons

821
00:31:32.800 --> 00:31:35.160
with a 20 million tons of TNT,

822
00:31:35.160 --> 00:31:37.200
the biggest nuclear weapons.

823
00:31:37.200 --> 00:31:39.000
And if you wanted to hit a country

824
00:31:39.000 --> 00:31:41.600
with the size of Iran and know you've neutralized it,

825
00:31:41.600 --> 00:31:43.320
so you destroy the whole thing,

826
00:31:43.320 --> 00:31:45.800
you're talking hundreds of those weapons.

827
00:31:45.800 --> 00:31:48.560
If you had to give a percentage probability

828
00:31:48.560 --> 00:31:51.440
of that outcome occurring, would it be less than 1%?

829
00:31:53.680 --> 00:31:56.520
If we didn't have a madman in Washington,

830
00:31:56.520 --> 00:31:59.200
yes, be less than 1%.

831
00:31:59.200 --> 00:32:02.320
We didn't have madmen in Israel, less than 1%.

832
00:32:02.320 --> 00:32:03.840
I think probably 5%.

833
00:32:03.840 --> 00:32:06.080
5% probability, that's a possibility.

834
00:32:06.080 --> 00:32:08.840
I mean, again, this is trying to make sense

835
00:32:08.840 --> 00:32:11.480
of the senseless, but I'd put it about them,

836
00:32:11.480 --> 00:32:15.480
less than 10%, but still scary as a possibility.

837
00:32:15.480 --> 00:32:18.920
If we end up there, we're going to roll gone.

838
00:32:18.920 --> 00:32:21.240
I mean, I know very little about all these things,

839
00:32:21.240 --> 00:32:23.360
so that's the disclaimer.

840
00:32:23.360 --> 00:32:29.040
I'd say that I don't think Israel would intentionally

841
00:32:29.040 --> 00:32:32.400
wipe out the rest of the world or cause a nuclear winter,

842
00:32:32.400 --> 00:32:34.440
because that would obviously impact them as well.

843
00:32:34.440 --> 00:32:37.200
But I am quite scared of president's setting.

844
00:32:37.200 --> 00:32:39.960
And what I mean by that is if we establish it

845
00:32:39.960 --> 00:32:43.200
being OK to drop nuclear weapons on people you don't like,

846
00:32:43.200 --> 00:32:46.440
the domino effect of that for people in Ukraine

847
00:32:46.440 --> 00:32:48.520
and other parts of the world where there's conflict,

848
00:32:48.520 --> 00:32:52.040
might then lead to mutually assured destruction.

849
00:32:52.040 --> 00:32:55.440
Yeah, it's the last possibility you want to have happen.

850
00:32:55.440 --> 00:32:58.360
The fact that it's even possible to contemplate it

851
00:32:58.360 --> 00:33:00.440
is a terrifying prospect.

852
00:33:00.440 --> 00:33:01.560
Let us hope.

853
00:33:01.560 --> 00:33:06.480
So scenario 2 is around destroys the Gulf power infrastructure.

854
00:33:06.480 --> 00:33:08.240
I think that's highly likely.

855
00:33:08.240 --> 00:33:10.440
Around destroys Gulf power infrastructure.

856
00:33:10.440 --> 00:33:11.320
What does that mean?

857
00:33:11.320 --> 00:33:14.840
What it means is that around all the Gulf states

858
00:33:14.840 --> 00:33:16.640
have got their own power systems,

859
00:33:16.640 --> 00:33:19.880
mainly based on burning oil for obvious reasons.

860
00:33:19.880 --> 00:33:22.320
If you take out their power structure systems,

861
00:33:22.320 --> 00:33:24.960
then those countries become uninhabitable.

862
00:33:24.960 --> 00:33:26.000
Is that what's happening already?

863
00:33:26.000 --> 00:33:27.960
Because I know Iran have attacked a few sort of power

864
00:33:27.960 --> 00:33:28.960
facilities in the region.

865
00:33:28.960 --> 00:33:30.520
There have been a couple where there was one attack

866
00:33:30.520 --> 00:33:33.320
on a Saudi Arabian power systems.

867
00:33:33.320 --> 00:33:35.760
And that took out two of the 14 units

868
00:33:35.760 --> 00:33:39.080
that are critical for creating liquefied natural gas.

869
00:33:39.080 --> 00:33:42.400
And apparently, it'll take five years to rebuild them.

870
00:33:42.400 --> 00:33:44.400
And there are only five companies on the planet

871
00:33:44.400 --> 00:33:46.000
that can actually do that rebuilding.

872
00:33:46.000 --> 00:33:48.480
One quarter of the world's liquid natural gas

873
00:33:48.480 --> 00:33:50.200
comes through the straight-of-hermos.

874
00:33:50.200 --> 00:33:52.920
One tenth of that has been destroyed.

875
00:33:52.920 --> 00:33:56.120
Select two and a half percent of the world's energy supply

876
00:33:56.120 --> 00:33:59.080
is gone for the next five years until those are rebuilt.

877
00:33:59.080 --> 00:34:01.080
If Iran destroys the Gulf power infrastructure,

878
00:34:01.080 --> 00:34:05.360
then Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Dubai, they all

879
00:34:05.360 --> 00:34:06.720
become uninhabitable.

880
00:34:06.720 --> 00:34:09.000
And we're seeing that happen in parts.

881
00:34:09.000 --> 00:34:11.200
I mean, it sounds like these attacks have slowed down

882
00:34:11.200 --> 00:34:13.680
a little bit, but it was interesting that Iran's strategy

883
00:34:13.680 --> 00:34:15.960
was to attack their neighboring sort of partners

884
00:34:15.960 --> 00:34:17.680
and specifically targeting a lot of their energy

885
00:34:17.680 --> 00:34:18.600
infrastructure.

886
00:34:18.600 --> 00:34:21.440
Is that in part to apply pressure?

887
00:34:21.440 --> 00:34:24.040
If I attack Dubai, the leaders of Dubai

888
00:34:24.040 --> 00:34:25.960
are going to call Trump and say, listen, cut this out.

889
00:34:25.960 --> 00:34:28.920
I mean, the pressure coming back from the Arabian states

890
00:34:28.920 --> 00:34:31.160
on America, I imagine, is quite immense right now,

891
00:34:31.160 --> 00:34:32.320
saying don't do it.

892
00:34:32.320 --> 00:34:34.680
It's quite possible Israel could do it.

893
00:34:34.680 --> 00:34:38.520
I could attack Iran and then Iran does a retribution attack.

894
00:34:38.520 --> 00:34:41.480
Trump, if you were to say in this tweet this morning,

895
00:34:41.480 --> 00:34:43.160
I think he's put it off the way for all the six

896
00:34:43.160 --> 00:34:45.880
before he says he starts attacking power infrastructure.

897
00:34:45.880 --> 00:34:47.680
If he attacks power infrastructure in Iran,

898
00:34:47.680 --> 00:34:50.320
Iran has said we will attack power infrastructure

899
00:34:50.320 --> 00:34:51.920
in the Gulf states.

900
00:34:51.920 --> 00:34:54.760
So we've got to, you know, what eight days.

901
00:34:54.760 --> 00:34:56.000
I think he's bluffing.

902
00:34:56.000 --> 00:34:57.400
I hope he's bluffing.

903
00:34:57.400 --> 00:35:00.280
But if he does do the attack, then Iran will respond

904
00:35:00.280 --> 00:35:03.880
by destroying either an equivalent component

905
00:35:03.880 --> 00:35:07.240
of the Gulf states or the whole infrastructure.

906
00:35:07.240 --> 00:35:11.360
I don't think people quite realize how costly it is

907
00:35:11.360 --> 00:35:14.400
for regions like Dubai when Iran attack them.

908
00:35:14.400 --> 00:35:16.120
I was looking at some of the data.

909
00:35:16.120 --> 00:35:17.840
And according to current estimates

910
00:35:17.840 --> 00:35:21.320
and a historical risk assessments by Dubai officials,

911
00:35:21.320 --> 00:35:24.880
they lose a million per minute,

912
00:35:24.880 --> 00:35:27.240
which is 60 million per hour,

913
00:35:27.240 --> 00:35:30.760
or 1.4 billion a day,

914
00:35:30.760 --> 00:35:33.000
when there's an unplanned emergency shutdown

915
00:35:33.000 --> 00:35:34.560
just of their airport.

916
00:35:34.560 --> 00:35:37.120
Their airports, let alone their power systems.

917
00:35:37.120 --> 00:35:37.960
Yeah.

918
00:35:37.960 --> 00:35:39.000
As we probably saw on the news,

919
00:35:39.000 --> 00:35:41.320
Iran had flown, it seemed like a couple of drones

920
00:35:41.320 --> 00:35:43.680
into Dubai's airport, which meant that it had to shut down.

921
00:35:43.680 --> 00:35:44.520
Yeah.

922
00:35:44.520 --> 00:35:45.960
If they're losing a billion a day

923
00:35:45.960 --> 00:35:47.080
because that airport is closed,

924
00:35:47.080 --> 00:35:49.960
I think it's the biggest airport in the world.

925
00:35:49.960 --> 00:35:53.280
It is economic pressure for Dubai,

926
00:35:53.280 --> 00:35:56.320
which will then trickle down to Trump and sort of force his hand.

927
00:35:56.320 --> 00:35:57.320
Yeah.

928
00:35:57.320 --> 00:35:59.080
So they've got a clear incentive to cause chaos.

929
00:35:59.080 --> 00:36:00.160
Yeah.

930
00:36:00.160 --> 00:36:02.040
And partly what Iran is saying,

931
00:36:02.040 --> 00:36:04.040
it's like a game of bluff.

932
00:36:04.040 --> 00:36:05.480
You don't want to do this bluff.

933
00:36:05.480 --> 00:36:08.560
If that bluff happens, then the Saudi Arabian Peninsula

934
00:36:08.560 --> 00:36:10.600
becomes uninhabitable.

935
00:36:10.600 --> 00:36:11.920
And therefore, all the...

936
00:36:11.920 --> 00:36:14.840
I mean, if people have forced out of there,

937
00:36:14.840 --> 00:36:17.560
most of the residents in those countries are not Saudis.

938
00:36:17.560 --> 00:36:21.280
Their third world workers from India and Pakistan

939
00:36:21.280 --> 00:36:22.560
and the Philippines and so on,

940
00:36:22.560 --> 00:36:26.680
they're being paid lousy wages to work on all these systems.

941
00:36:26.680 --> 00:36:29.520
If they leave, because the power's not there to support them anymore,

942
00:36:29.520 --> 00:36:30.840
they try to leave,

943
00:36:30.840 --> 00:36:34.200
then we lose the entire energy contribution

944
00:36:34.200 --> 00:36:37.760
that that region makes to the global economy.

945
00:36:37.760 --> 00:36:38.960
And the figure's screwed.

946
00:36:38.960 --> 00:36:41.400
And that figure I cited includes not just lost airport revenue,

947
00:36:41.400 --> 00:36:44.040
but then the immediate impact on airlines, cargo logistics,

948
00:36:44.040 --> 00:36:45.280
and the missed opportunity cost

949
00:36:45.280 --> 00:36:48.040
of thousands of high-value business travelers attending the region.

950
00:36:48.080 --> 00:36:51.360
The Dubai's GDP is roughly 30% dependent

951
00:36:51.360 --> 00:36:53.640
on the aviation and tourism sectors.

952
00:36:53.640 --> 00:36:54.760
It's when the airport closes,

953
00:36:54.760 --> 00:36:56.640
it impacts tourism, hospitality, real estate,

954
00:36:56.640 --> 00:36:58.200
investing, global supply chains, and everything.

955
00:36:58.200 --> 00:37:02.560
So it's quite remarkable, specifically with Dubai.

956
00:37:02.560 --> 00:37:04.720
Because Dubai, I think Dubai is a lovely place.

957
00:37:04.720 --> 00:37:05.920
I've been multiple times.

958
00:37:05.920 --> 00:37:08.520
I love going there.

959
00:37:08.520 --> 00:37:10.120
But it felt really safe.

960
00:37:10.120 --> 00:37:10.800
And so a lot of people...

961
00:37:10.800 --> 00:37:11.720
That's not safe.

962
00:37:11.720 --> 00:37:13.440
Yeah. It's not safe. Yeah.

963
00:37:13.440 --> 00:37:15.800
Yeah, and a lot of people had chosen to upgrade their lives

964
00:37:15.800 --> 00:37:16.800
and move there.

965
00:37:16.800 --> 00:37:19.120
And you'd almost kind of forgotten you were in the Middle East

966
00:37:19.120 --> 00:37:20.720
to some degree. Yeah. Yeah.

967
00:37:20.720 --> 00:37:22.880
But I think this is going to be a pretty traumatic reminder

968
00:37:22.880 --> 00:37:24.080
for a lot of people there.

969
00:37:24.080 --> 00:37:25.520
How fragile. How fragile.

970
00:37:25.520 --> 00:37:26.520
How fragile it is.

971
00:37:26.520 --> 00:37:27.840
Like that's the lesson we're learning.

972
00:37:27.840 --> 00:37:30.880
It's the fragility of the society we take for granted.

973
00:37:31.920 --> 00:37:33.200
So that was scenario number two.

974
00:37:33.200 --> 00:37:35.280
And okay, scenario three.

975
00:37:35.280 --> 00:37:37.440
That's the one that really scares me

976
00:37:37.440 --> 00:37:39.600
because that is the Samsung doctrine.

977
00:37:39.600 --> 00:37:40.920
You know the story of Samsung.

978
00:37:40.920 --> 00:37:41.720
Yeah. Okay.

979
00:37:41.720 --> 00:37:45.360
Samsung is a enormously strong individual.

980
00:37:45.360 --> 00:37:47.240
He's strong because of his hair.

981
00:37:47.240 --> 00:37:49.520
And then he gets conned.

982
00:37:49.520 --> 00:37:51.600
This is an ancient story from the Bible.

983
00:37:51.600 --> 00:37:53.840
And he's a woman who's conned him.

984
00:37:53.840 --> 00:37:55.800
Shaves his hair so he's weakened.

985
00:37:55.800 --> 00:37:57.960
And then they put him in a temple

986
00:37:57.960 --> 00:38:00.200
where he's standing between two pillars

987
00:38:00.200 --> 00:38:01.120
and he's here has gone.

988
00:38:01.120 --> 00:38:02.680
He's bald. He can't do a thing.

989
00:38:02.680 --> 00:38:05.600
They forget the fact that he's here starting to grow.

990
00:38:05.600 --> 00:38:09.000
His hair gets to the stage where he's now got his strength back.

991
00:38:09.000 --> 00:38:10.200
He pushes those pillars

992
00:38:10.200 --> 00:38:12.840
and the whole thing collapses and everybody dies.

993
00:38:12.840 --> 00:38:14.160
That's the Samsung doctrine.

994
00:38:14.160 --> 00:38:16.960
And that involves Israel's nuclear weapons.

995
00:38:16.960 --> 00:38:20.000
If they realize that they are going to lose this war

996
00:38:20.000 --> 00:38:22.760
and it becomes existential for them,

997
00:38:22.760 --> 00:38:24.960
then one of the things they have claimed

998
00:38:24.960 --> 00:38:27.520
that they do is an unleashed destruction

999
00:38:27.520 --> 00:38:28.680
on the rest of the world

1000
00:38:28.680 --> 00:38:30.240
like Samsung pushing the towers

1001
00:38:30.240 --> 00:38:32.720
and the whole thing comes collapsing down.

1002
00:38:32.720 --> 00:38:34.360
This is, I mean, going back to the situation

1003
00:38:34.360 --> 00:38:36.360
where the Ron and Israel, one of the things I was thinking

1004
00:38:36.360 --> 00:38:38.600
a lot about from some commentary that I'd seen

1005
00:38:38.600 --> 00:38:43.000
is Israel really have a motive

1006
00:38:43.000 --> 00:38:44.480
to get rid of Iran

1007
00:38:44.480 --> 00:38:46.840
because Iran have repeatedly threatened Israel.

1008
00:38:46.840 --> 00:38:50.960
It's also because Israel's trying to get rid of the Palestinians.

1009
00:38:50.960 --> 00:38:53.440
And in that sense, Iran has been

1010
00:38:53.440 --> 00:38:55.120
probably the major bulkward

1011
00:38:55.120 --> 00:38:56.480
supporting the Palestinians

1012
00:38:56.480 --> 00:38:59.160
and say, let the Palestinians survive.

1013
00:38:59.160 --> 00:39:02.800
Let the Palestinians people continue existing.

1014
00:39:02.800 --> 00:39:05.840
And the Israelis have been pushing and pushing

1015
00:39:05.840 --> 00:39:07.800
and pushing the Palestinians out.

1016
00:39:07.800 --> 00:39:08.920
You know, it's a hornet's nest.

1017
00:39:08.920 --> 00:39:10.720
We're provoked a hornet's nest.

1018
00:39:10.720 --> 00:39:12.160
Iran is responding right now.

1019
00:39:12.160 --> 00:39:14.160
I think in a very judicious way.

1020
00:39:14.160 --> 00:39:17.120
But if the Israelis realize they're facing

1021
00:39:17.120 --> 00:39:19.640
an existential defeat, that scenario

1022
00:39:19.640 --> 00:39:23.920
it would again mean civilization potentially gets destroyed.

1023
00:39:23.920 --> 00:39:25.280
And just looking at some of the things

1024
00:39:25.280 --> 00:39:27.480
that Iran have said about Israel,

1025
00:39:27.480 --> 00:39:29.400
historically, the Supreme Leader of Iran

1026
00:39:29.400 --> 00:39:34.480
stated in 2015 that Israel would not see the next 25 years.

1027
00:39:34.480 --> 00:39:37.120
Other officials said things like the end is near.

1028
00:39:37.680 --> 00:39:42.320
And in March, 2026, Iran's tone shifted

1029
00:39:42.320 --> 00:39:46.520
from ideological to purely retaliatory

1030
00:39:46.520 --> 00:39:48.040
with the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament,

1031
00:39:48.040 --> 00:39:52.200
Mohammed stating that Iran has officially declared

1032
00:39:52.200 --> 00:39:54.240
that it considers all Israel energy,

1033
00:39:54.240 --> 00:39:57.000
water, and IT infrastructure legitimate targets

1034
00:39:57.000 --> 00:40:01.040
for irreversible destruction with zero restraint.

1035
00:40:02.160 --> 00:40:03.840
If we think about this from a psychology perspective,

1036
00:40:03.840 --> 00:40:05.040
you've got two neighbors.

1037
00:40:05.040 --> 00:40:07.680
They're both either implying implicitly or explicitly

1038
00:40:07.680 --> 00:40:09.680
that they want to wipe the other one out.

1039
00:40:09.680 --> 00:40:12.360
Trump is sort of this third party in the arrangement

1040
00:40:12.360 --> 00:40:13.360
who's not in the region.

1041
00:40:13.360 --> 00:40:15.880
So he might be a little bit safer.

1042
00:40:15.880 --> 00:40:18.280
Those two parties that are against each other,

1043
00:40:18.280 --> 00:40:19.760
one of them has nuclear weapons

1044
00:40:19.760 --> 00:40:24.040
and the other appears to be trying to make one.

1045
00:40:24.040 --> 00:40:26.760
The neighbor that is Israel, presumably,

1046
00:40:26.760 --> 00:40:28.520
cannot let that happen.

1047
00:40:28.520 --> 00:40:30.280
Because if it gets to a point where they both have

1048
00:40:30.280 --> 00:40:33.200
nuclear weapons and they both want to wipe each other out,

1049
00:40:34.160 --> 00:40:36.600
I think, no, I actually think that the old days

1050
00:40:36.600 --> 00:40:40.240
of neutrality or destruction were a more stable time

1051
00:40:40.240 --> 00:40:41.520
than what we're in now.

1052
00:40:41.520 --> 00:40:43.440
Because if you realize that if you attack,

1053
00:40:43.440 --> 00:40:45.720
you also die, you don't attack.

1054
00:40:45.720 --> 00:40:48.040
But what if you think of death as being

1055
00:40:48.040 --> 00:40:49.360
a better thing than life?

1056
00:40:50.520 --> 00:40:54.400
You have to have a society continuing after you die.

1057
00:40:54.400 --> 00:40:55.600
If you're going to be a martyr,

1058
00:40:55.600 --> 00:40:58.000
there has to be people who are going to mourn your death.

1059
00:40:58.000 --> 00:40:59.120
If you're really being a martyr,

1060
00:40:59.120 --> 00:41:01.600
means everybody else so, so dies and you don't do it.

1061
00:41:01.680 --> 00:41:03.720
So do you think if Iran had nuclear weapons,

1062
00:41:03.720 --> 00:41:04.840
it would be a safer one?

1063
00:41:04.840 --> 00:41:06.960
I think it'd be safer because it would tell the Israelis

1064
00:41:06.960 --> 00:41:08.960
stop attacking your neighbors.

1065
00:41:08.960 --> 00:41:12.560
I sat with a few nuclear experts

1066
00:41:12.560 --> 00:41:14.440
and one of the things that was shocking that I learned

1067
00:41:14.440 --> 00:41:17.280
is if the United States wanted to launch

1068
00:41:17.280 --> 00:41:20.960
a nuclear weapon today, it is one person's decision.

1069
00:41:20.960 --> 00:41:22.560
I heard that and that's what Trump

1070
00:41:22.560 --> 00:41:24.080
can actually just make that decision.

1071
00:41:24.080 --> 00:41:25.440
He can make the decision on his own.

1072
00:41:25.440 --> 00:41:27.960
He doesn't need to consult Congress or anybody else.

1073
00:41:27.960 --> 00:41:29.600
He has someone who walks around with a briefcase

1074
00:41:29.600 --> 00:41:30.920
that has the nuclear code in

1075
00:41:31.080 --> 00:41:32.600
any moment he calls like this.

1076
00:41:32.600 --> 00:41:35.360
Yeah, and when I think about the same in this region,

1077
00:41:35.360 --> 00:41:38.040
actually, you don't need a whole state to decide

1078
00:41:38.040 --> 00:41:39.480
that they don't like their neighbor.

1079
00:41:39.480 --> 00:41:41.840
All you need is one supreme leader,

1080
00:41:41.840 --> 00:41:44.840
or Nanyahu, to say, do you know what?

1081
00:41:44.840 --> 00:41:46.280
I'm near the end of my life

1082
00:41:46.280 --> 00:41:47.880
and these people have really pissed me off.

1083
00:41:47.880 --> 00:41:49.440
Yeah, that's right.

1084
00:41:49.440 --> 00:41:52.160
And that's, I mean, I thought there was at least some control.

1085
00:41:52.160 --> 00:41:54.600
I saw that segment with Annie Jacobson, yeah.

1086
00:41:54.600 --> 00:41:56.400
I thought there was at least some control.

1087
00:41:56.400 --> 00:41:58.040
He had to consult someone.

1088
00:41:58.040 --> 00:41:58.920
But if, I know,

1089
00:41:58.920 --> 00:42:00.320
well, they had to have circumstances

1090
00:42:00.320 --> 00:42:02.880
who justified not consulting someone.

1091
00:42:02.880 --> 00:42:04.040
If he's got that right,

1092
00:42:04.040 --> 00:42:06.120
then it comes down to what's the behavior

1093
00:42:06.120 --> 00:42:08.880
of the person who carers the nuclear football?

1094
00:42:08.880 --> 00:42:11.000
Does he let Trump get hold of it?

1095
00:42:11.000 --> 00:42:12.800
And like there was in another incident

1096
00:42:12.800 --> 00:42:16.600
the way way back, I think in this 70s or 80s,

1097
00:42:16.600 --> 00:42:19.520
that the Russian early warning system

1098
00:42:19.520 --> 00:42:21.400
reported that there was a nuclear attack

1099
00:42:21.400 --> 00:42:22.520
on the way to Russia.

1100
00:42:22.520 --> 00:42:24.800
And there was one submarine commander

1101
00:42:24.800 --> 00:42:27.800
or one element of the submarine command system.

1102
00:42:27.800 --> 00:42:29.680
And they had to have three people in the submarine

1103
00:42:29.680 --> 00:42:32.160
who agreed to launch that attack

1104
00:42:32.160 --> 00:42:34.520
on this particular person refused.

1105
00:42:34.520 --> 00:42:36.000
Now, if that hadn't happened,

1106
00:42:36.000 --> 00:42:37.960
if he'd agreed with the other two,

1107
00:42:37.960 --> 00:42:40.520
they would have been a nuclear war at that stage.

1108
00:42:40.520 --> 00:42:42.000
And it wasn't real.

1109
00:42:42.000 --> 00:42:44.440
It was a false alarm from the system.

1110
00:42:44.440 --> 00:42:47.400
So even the Russian submarine had three people

1111
00:42:47.400 --> 00:42:48.760
who had to make that decision.

1112
00:42:48.760 --> 00:42:50.080
So we didn't have a nuclear war.

1113
00:42:50.080 --> 00:42:52.600
Now we've got one maniac in this White House.

1114
00:42:52.600 --> 00:42:53.880
So could do it.

1115
00:42:53.880 --> 00:42:56.120
I'll play Annie Jacobson's clip now

1116
00:42:56.120 --> 00:42:59.560
where she talks about the idea of sole authority,

1117
00:42:59.560 --> 00:43:00.880
which I think is an important thing for people

1118
00:43:00.880 --> 00:43:03.000
to understand because when we think about who we're electing

1119
00:43:03.000 --> 00:43:07.680
to lead our nuclear capable countries,

1120
00:43:07.680 --> 00:43:11.760
you have to think about who you want to give sole authority to.

1121
00:43:11.760 --> 00:43:12.840
The United States president

1122
00:43:12.840 --> 00:43:16.840
has sole presidential authority to launch a nuclear war.

1123
00:43:16.840 --> 00:43:18.000
What does that mean?

1124
00:43:18.000 --> 00:43:19.680
It's exactly like it sounds.

1125
00:43:19.680 --> 00:43:21.240
What's so interesting is a lot of this stuff,

1126
00:43:21.240 --> 00:43:23.600
this nomenclature that gets thrown at you.

1127
00:43:23.600 --> 00:43:24.960
If you just break it down,

1128
00:43:24.960 --> 00:43:29.000
it's sole, solo, presidential.

1129
00:43:29.000 --> 00:43:31.360
He's the POTUS authority.

1130
00:43:31.360 --> 00:43:34.400
He doesn't have to ask anyone for permission.

1131
00:43:34.400 --> 00:43:35.640
Not the SEC DEF,

1132
00:43:35.640 --> 00:43:37.960
not the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,

1133
00:43:37.960 --> 00:43:39.040
not the Congress.

1134
00:43:39.040 --> 00:43:41.720
I love the worried look on your face in this moment

1135
00:43:41.720 --> 00:43:45.160
because it is, once you know that,

1136
00:43:46.120 --> 00:43:48.440
you say, well, first you might Google,

1137
00:43:48.440 --> 00:43:49.800
is it really true?

1138
00:43:49.800 --> 00:43:52.760
And you will get, for example, on Reddit.

1139
00:43:52.760 --> 00:43:54.480
Like, that's not really true.

1140
00:43:54.480 --> 00:43:57.480
You'll get like hundreds of thousands of people,

1141
00:43:57.480 --> 00:43:59.480
you know, coming in with their opinions

1142
00:43:59.480 --> 00:44:01.400
about how that's not really true.

1143
00:44:01.400 --> 00:44:03.080
Well, it is really true.

1144
00:44:03.080 --> 00:44:04.080
It's absolutely true.

1145
00:44:04.080 --> 00:44:09.160
And in fact, during the former President Trump administration,

1146
00:44:09.160 --> 00:44:12.000
Congress became so sort of,

1147
00:44:12.000 --> 00:44:14.760
I want to say motivated or alarmed by this issue,

1148
00:44:14.760 --> 00:44:16.960
meaning they were being asked questions

1149
00:44:16.960 --> 00:44:19.200
by the powers that be.

1150
00:44:19.200 --> 00:44:22.680
Is this actually true that they released a report

1151
00:44:22.680 --> 00:44:25.200
stating specifically, and I quote it in the book,

1152
00:44:25.200 --> 00:44:26.840
yes, it is true.

1153
00:44:26.840 --> 00:44:28.680
As Commander-in-Chief,

1154
00:44:28.680 --> 00:44:31.040
the president has this sole authority,

1155
00:44:31.040 --> 00:44:33.600
he doesn't need to ask anyone.

1156
00:44:33.600 --> 00:44:36.400
So what is scenario four in your envelopes there?

1157
00:44:36.400 --> 00:44:39.120
Iran Disableds, Israel's New Yorks.

1158
00:44:39.120 --> 00:44:41.040
Nobody can know, but I do believe

1159
00:44:41.040 --> 00:44:43.160
that Iran has not developed nuclear weapons.

1160
00:44:43.160 --> 00:44:46.240
So you're hoping Iran Disableds, Israel's nuclear weapons?

1161
00:44:46.240 --> 00:44:47.760
Yeah, I am. I hope that happens

1162
00:44:47.760 --> 00:44:50.320
because that takes out the nuclear option, okay?

1163
00:44:50.320 --> 00:44:52.600
We won't see nuclear war as a result of this,

1164
00:44:52.600 --> 00:44:55.040
if the only nuclear weapons that we know exist

1165
00:44:55.040 --> 00:44:56.480
in the Middle East are destroyed.

1166
00:44:56.480 --> 00:44:59.640
But if Iran starts disabling Israel's New Yorks

1167
00:44:59.640 --> 00:45:02.600
and attacking Israel, that effectively,

1168
00:45:02.600 --> 00:45:04.760
there's going to be an even bigger problem.

1169
00:45:04.760 --> 00:45:07.520
Well, not if we're talking conventional weapons.

1170
00:45:07.520 --> 00:45:09.960
If it's conventional weapons and ground trips,

1171
00:45:09.960 --> 00:45:12.160
then you don't end up with nuclear winter

1172
00:45:12.160 --> 00:45:13.960
and the death of everybody on the planet.

1173
00:45:13.960 --> 00:45:16.520
Wait, so you're saying you hope Iran invades Israel

1174
00:45:16.520 --> 00:45:17.520
and takes out the nuclear weapons?

1175
00:45:17.520 --> 00:45:18.760
No, that's not a serious invasion.

1176
00:45:18.800 --> 00:45:20.880
It could be the missiles they've got left.

1177
00:45:20.880 --> 00:45:23.640
Again, we don't know how capable their missiles are.

1178
00:45:23.640 --> 00:45:25.920
The level of planning that Iran has done in this war,

1179
00:45:25.920 --> 00:45:29.560
I had no idea of the fact they had those 31 regions,

1180
00:45:29.560 --> 00:45:31.200
for example, until the war began.

1181
00:45:31.200 --> 00:45:35.440
My special is economics, not global military politics.

1182
00:45:35.440 --> 00:45:37.160
But once I learned that I thought,

1183
00:45:37.160 --> 00:45:39.280
they have really thought this through.

1184
00:45:39.280 --> 00:45:41.560
They have wargamed what happens

1185
00:45:41.560 --> 00:45:43.680
if they get attacked by America.

1186
00:45:43.680 --> 00:45:46.240
And they've wargamed it comprehensively.

1187
00:45:46.240 --> 00:45:49.000
Now, I hope they've also wargamed

1188
00:45:49.000 --> 00:45:51.520
if we start defeating Israel.

1189
00:45:51.520 --> 00:45:54.600
And Israel realizes they're going to be wiped out.

1190
00:45:54.600 --> 00:45:57.440
Then the possibility for the Samson doctrine comes in.

1191
00:45:57.440 --> 00:45:59.680
We have to disable that before it happens.

1192
00:45:59.680 --> 00:46:02.320
How could they possibly, they don't have a functioning

1193
00:46:02.320 --> 00:46:05.560
military left in any sort of typical sense of Iran?

1194
00:46:05.560 --> 00:46:06.880
They don't have ships left.

1195
00:46:06.880 --> 00:46:07.880
They don't have planes left.

1196
00:46:07.880 --> 00:46:08.920
They don't have ships that don't have planes

1197
00:46:08.920 --> 00:46:10.680
but they have got missiles.

1198
00:46:10.680 --> 00:46:12.440
And we don't know how many missiles they've got.

1199
00:46:12.440 --> 00:46:13.440
We don't know where the missiles are.

1200
00:46:13.440 --> 00:46:16.440
Certainly the Americans would have some intelligence.

1201
00:46:16.440 --> 00:46:17.480
I think the words got to be used

1202
00:46:17.480 --> 00:46:19.280
with inverted commas these days.

1203
00:46:19.280 --> 00:46:22.560
But some intelligence over where they are located in Iran.

1204
00:46:22.560 --> 00:46:25.040
But if you listen to the Iranians talking about it,

1205
00:46:25.040 --> 00:46:28.320
they say they've got hundreds of these facilities

1206
00:46:28.320 --> 00:46:31.600
buried hundreds of meters below the ground.

1207
00:46:31.600 --> 00:46:33.200
If the weapons they have developed,

1208
00:46:33.200 --> 00:46:36.240
the advanced rocketry they have developed,

1209
00:46:36.240 --> 00:46:39.880
they can evade Israel's own home.

1210
00:46:39.920 --> 00:46:43.160
Maybe they can also get into and destroy

1211
00:46:43.160 --> 00:46:45.160
Israel's relaunch capabilities.

1212
00:46:45.160 --> 00:46:48.600
And if that happens, I think that'd be the best possible outcome

1213
00:46:48.600 --> 00:46:52.360
because we have a rogue state in the Middle East

1214
00:46:52.360 --> 00:46:53.920
which has nuclear weapons,

1215
00:46:53.920 --> 00:46:57.280
which will neither admit that it has or won't sign it.

1216
00:46:57.280 --> 00:47:00.440
They're not part of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

1217
00:47:00.440 --> 00:47:02.040
They won't sign that treaty.

1218
00:47:02.040 --> 00:47:04.440
We should never have allowed that to happen.

1219
00:47:04.440 --> 00:47:05.560
And if Iran gets rid of them,

1220
00:47:05.560 --> 00:47:07.080
I think it's the world's safest place.

1221
00:47:07.080 --> 00:47:09.960
Israel are just going to make more nuclear weapons.

1222
00:47:09.960 --> 00:47:11.600
They have the resources.

1223
00:47:11.600 --> 00:47:13.320
You need a hell of a lot of technology

1224
00:47:13.320 --> 00:47:15.640
and a hell of a lot of intelligent people to do that.

1225
00:47:15.640 --> 00:47:17.040
They have already lost the world.

1226
00:47:17.040 --> 00:47:19.200
How could Israel lose the war?

1227
00:47:19.200 --> 00:47:22.920
You've got 90, population of 90 million in Iran,

1228
00:47:22.920 --> 00:47:25.600
and a population of less than 10 million in Israel.

1229
00:47:25.600 --> 00:47:29.800
But they've got, it's a sort of technological Gulf.

1230
00:47:29.800 --> 00:47:31.440
It's not as big as we thought it was.

1231
00:47:31.440 --> 00:47:33.560
We're only realizing now the level of technology

1232
00:47:33.560 --> 00:47:35.040
that Iran has.

1233
00:47:35.040 --> 00:47:37.400
I mean, the things which Iran are doing in this war so far

1234
00:47:37.400 --> 00:47:40.880
have surprised everybody who hasn't got the background

1235
00:47:40.880 --> 00:47:44.680
of intelligence to tell them what's going on.

1236
00:47:44.680 --> 00:47:47.400
It's an educated, sophisticated culture.

1237
00:47:47.400 --> 00:47:49.240
Far more so than the caricature I've got

1238
00:47:49.240 --> 00:47:52.080
from the West has been about it in the past.

1239
00:47:52.080 --> 00:47:55.880
So they don't have nearly the same level of resources

1240
00:47:55.880 --> 00:47:57.480
and technology.

1241
00:47:57.480 --> 00:48:02.280
And I would say maybe sort of sophisticated, yeah,

1242
00:48:02.280 --> 00:48:07.400
advanced systems from a war perspective that Israel do.

1243
00:48:07.400 --> 00:48:09.520
We think we don't know.

1244
00:48:09.520 --> 00:48:11.560
We're assuming any intelligent services,

1245
00:48:11.560 --> 00:48:14.280
even they're like their planes and their missiles

1246
00:48:14.280 --> 00:48:16.880
and their defense systems are profoundly more advanced

1247
00:48:16.880 --> 00:48:18.120
than Iran's.

1248
00:48:18.120 --> 00:48:19.920
If that was the case, we wouldn't be having

1249
00:48:19.920 --> 00:48:21.240
this conversation.

1250
00:48:21.240 --> 00:48:24.600
It's three weeks after the war began or four weeks,

1251
00:48:24.600 --> 00:48:26.280
the original belief that Trump has

1252
00:48:26.280 --> 00:48:27.920
would be over in one day.

1253
00:48:27.920 --> 00:48:29.400
That's proof false.

1254
00:48:29.400 --> 00:48:31.080
I think that's important because of what you said,

1255
00:48:31.080 --> 00:48:33.880
because they've prepared for deportation.

1256
00:48:33.880 --> 00:48:35.840
If I was the Supreme Leader of Iran,

1257
00:48:35.840 --> 00:48:37.880
yeah, that's the sort of approach I would have taken,

1258
00:48:37.880 --> 00:48:40.720
which is you take me out and actually you've got a bigger problem

1259
00:48:40.720 --> 00:48:44.840
because now you've got to negotiate with 41 or 31 different

1260
00:48:44.840 --> 00:48:46.400
sort of sub militaries.

1261
00:48:46.400 --> 00:48:47.560
And that's an impossible task.

1262
00:48:47.560 --> 00:48:48.360
Yeah, yeah.

1263
00:48:48.360 --> 00:48:50.360
And that's the Iranians were aware of that.

1264
00:48:50.360 --> 00:48:52.600
And they've got a huge army.

1265
00:48:52.600 --> 00:48:56.800
They can conscript far more people than Israel has.

1266
00:48:56.800 --> 00:49:00.560
It's to me, if it gets down to a conventional military,

1267
00:49:00.640 --> 00:49:04.040
then it's possible that Israel could lose that as well.

1268
00:49:04.040 --> 00:49:08.120
On March 21, Trump threatened to obliterate Iran's power plants

1269
00:49:08.120 --> 00:49:13.080
if they did not fully reopen the state of Hummus within 48 hours.

1270
00:49:13.080 --> 00:49:15.440
He then came out and said that he was pausing that

1271
00:49:15.440 --> 00:49:17.880
because Iran went negotiating.

1272
00:49:17.880 --> 00:49:20.360
And he says he thinks he's negotiating

1273
00:49:20.360 --> 00:49:21.840
with the right person.

1274
00:49:21.840 --> 00:49:25.920
As of yesterday, Trump has announced a 10-day pause

1275
00:49:25.920 --> 00:49:29.280
until April 6 on destroying energy plants,

1276
00:49:29.280 --> 00:49:32.040
claiming that indirect talks are going very well

1277
00:49:32.040 --> 00:49:34.360
and that Iran is begging to make a deal,

1278
00:49:34.360 --> 00:49:35.440
according to the Guardian.

1279
00:49:35.440 --> 00:49:38.840
So what's going on there in your view?

1280
00:49:38.840 --> 00:49:41.240
I think he's gaming the markets.

1281
00:49:41.240 --> 00:49:43.440
I really think he's using it to cause the oil

1282
00:49:43.440 --> 00:49:46.760
and art price to go up and down and gaming it either side.

1283
00:49:46.760 --> 00:49:49.680
And somebody in his circle,

1284
00:49:49.680 --> 00:49:52.560
people are making a fortune playing the option as the case.

1285
00:49:52.560 --> 00:49:53.560
Yeah, I do.

1286
00:49:53.560 --> 00:49:56.360
Because there's lots of ways to make money

1287
00:49:56.360 --> 00:49:59.440
that don't involve crashing the global economy,

1288
00:49:59.440 --> 00:50:00.600
losing the midterms.

1289
00:50:00.600 --> 00:50:01.680
Yeah, you think of that.

1290
00:50:01.680 --> 00:50:02.520
You've got ethics.

1291
00:50:02.520 --> 00:50:03.520
You've got empathy.

1292
00:50:03.520 --> 00:50:04.800
You've got morals.

1293
00:50:04.800 --> 00:50:06.680
Trump has none of those things.

1294
00:50:06.680 --> 00:50:08.240
Do you not think it's just, again,

1295
00:50:08.240 --> 00:50:10.520
if we look at Trump's pattern of behavior over time,

1296
00:50:10.520 --> 00:50:12.200
even with the tariffs,

1297
00:50:12.200 --> 00:50:13.520
the same pattern of behavior occurred there

1298
00:50:13.520 --> 00:50:15.000
where he would come out and say,

1299
00:50:15.000 --> 00:50:16.800
every leader is calling me.

1300
00:50:16.800 --> 00:50:17.840
They can't stop calling me.

1301
00:50:17.840 --> 00:50:19.400
They don't want to make a deal.

1302
00:50:19.400 --> 00:50:21.040
I'm going to do a tariff when you 10%.

1303
00:50:21.040 --> 00:50:22.680
Wait, no, I'm not pause, call me.

1304
00:50:22.680 --> 00:50:23.440
Yeah, yeah.

1305
00:50:23.440 --> 00:50:24.520
It's the same pattern of behavior.

1306
00:50:24.520 --> 00:50:26.200
You make a threat system.

1307
00:50:26.200 --> 00:50:27.040
Yeah.

1308
00:50:27.040 --> 00:50:29.200
You then blackmail the person

1309
00:50:29.200 --> 00:50:31.080
to try and negotiate with you

1310
00:50:31.080 --> 00:50:33.320
when they don't, you hit them with the thing hard.

1311
00:50:33.320 --> 00:50:35.360
And eventually, in the end of the day,

1312
00:50:35.360 --> 00:50:37.720
you don't really do any of the stuff you threaten to do.

1313
00:50:37.720 --> 00:50:40.680
Because you've sort of manipulated a person

1314
00:50:40.680 --> 00:50:41.920
into getting your way.

1315
00:50:41.920 --> 00:50:43.640
It's the same pattern of behavior.

1316
00:50:43.640 --> 00:50:45.320
We're going to smash you if you don't call me.

1317
00:50:45.320 --> 00:50:46.320
Yeah.

1318
00:50:46.320 --> 00:50:47.480
They do or don't call.

1319
00:50:47.480 --> 00:50:49.040
He announces to the world that they called.

1320
00:50:49.040 --> 00:50:49.880
They're begging.

1321
00:50:49.880 --> 00:50:51.720
Look, it says here, they're begging me for a deal.

1322
00:50:51.720 --> 00:50:54.320
I'm going to give them 10 more days.

1323
00:50:54.320 --> 00:50:56.960
To me, it sounds like he's trying to build his golden bridge

1324
00:50:56.960 --> 00:50:58.320
to get the fuck out of there.

1325
00:50:58.320 --> 00:51:00.160
What he's imagining is he's dealing with somebody

1326
00:51:00.160 --> 00:51:02.520
like himself and Iran.

1327
00:51:02.520 --> 00:51:06.040
He's projecting how he would react to these things.

1328
00:51:06.040 --> 00:51:08.360
He's obviously projecting his own behavior

1329
00:51:08.360 --> 00:51:09.600
onto the system.

1330
00:51:09.600 --> 00:51:12.560
And it's projection rather than understanding.

1331
00:51:12.560 --> 00:51:15.120
So if you'd decapitate, if you took out Trump,

1332
00:51:15.120 --> 00:51:17.840
the fear of being assassinated, yes, well,

1333
00:51:17.840 --> 00:51:20.240
bargain what he want me to do, he thinks that works

1334
00:51:20.240 --> 00:51:21.360
on Iran, it doesn't.

1335
00:51:21.360 --> 00:51:23.600
You can look at his behavior and sort of understand

1336
00:51:23.600 --> 00:51:24.440
what he wants.

1337
00:51:24.440 --> 00:51:26.280
He wants to win this war.

1338
00:51:26.280 --> 00:51:28.160
And you know he wants to win the war

1339
00:51:28.160 --> 00:51:29.160
and that's and get out of there

1340
00:51:29.160 --> 00:51:30.160
because that's what he's been saying.

1341
00:51:30.160 --> 00:51:32.040
We've won, we've won, every day, we've won.

1342
00:51:32.040 --> 00:51:33.280
More missiles going, we've won.

1343
00:51:33.280 --> 00:51:35.400
So that's clearly what he wants to happen.

1344
00:51:35.400 --> 00:51:37.000
The problem is winning here doesn't seem

1345
00:51:37.000 --> 00:51:38.040
like a straightforward thing.

1346
00:51:38.040 --> 00:51:39.040
No, it's not going to happen.

1347
00:51:39.040 --> 00:51:40.360
No pun intended with the straight up emoji,

1348
00:51:40.360 --> 00:51:42.320
but it really doesn't seem like a straightforward thing.

1349
00:51:42.320 --> 00:51:46.800
So it's my opinion now that they are a little bit stuck

1350
00:51:46.800 --> 00:51:49.640
because if you leave now, you lose.

1351
00:51:49.640 --> 00:51:51.320
Iran start firing Israel.

1352
00:51:51.320 --> 00:51:54.000
Israel don't stop even though you tell them to.

1353
00:51:54.000 --> 00:51:55.240
They start firing at each other.

1354
00:51:55.240 --> 00:51:56.720
The whole thing blows up.

1355
00:51:56.720 --> 00:51:59.800
Or they keep the straight up almost closed.

1356
00:51:59.800 --> 00:52:00.800
All prices go up.

1357
00:52:00.800 --> 00:52:02.760
It looks terrible, terrible, terrible for Trump.

1358
00:52:02.760 --> 00:52:04.000
We might get, he might find himself

1359
00:52:04.000 --> 00:52:06.360
in a bush situation where his legacy,

1360
00:52:06.360 --> 00:52:08.480
and I think that's such an important word.

1361
00:52:08.480 --> 00:52:10.960
A man that can't be elected for a third term.

1362
00:52:10.960 --> 00:52:14.000
His legacy is tarnished in the same way

1363
00:52:14.000 --> 00:52:15.920
that Bush's legacy was tarnished

1364
00:52:15.920 --> 00:52:17.760
by going to war in the Middle East.

1365
00:52:17.760 --> 00:52:20.520
I think his greatest fear, Trump's greatest fear,

1366
00:52:20.520 --> 00:52:22.120
you'd think back through all of these moments

1367
00:52:22.120 --> 00:52:23.400
over the last couple of years where he talked about

1368
00:52:23.400 --> 00:52:24.920
the Nobel Prize.

1369
00:52:24.920 --> 00:52:26.840
I think he's trying to put himself on the Mount Rushmore

1370
00:52:26.840 --> 00:52:29.800
of Presidents in history's mind.

1371
00:52:29.800 --> 00:52:32.600
And I think how this situation plays out now,

1372
00:52:32.600 --> 00:52:35.120
the sole thing he's thinking about is his legacy.

1373
00:52:35.120 --> 00:52:38.200
And right now, being stuck in a war

1374
00:52:38.200 --> 00:52:40.400
and contemplating putting ground troops in

1375
00:52:40.400 --> 00:52:42.680
is arguably the worst thing for one's legacy.

1376
00:52:42.680 --> 00:52:44.200
Americans dead.

1377
00:52:44.200 --> 00:52:45.680
And lots of Americans dead.

1378
00:52:45.680 --> 00:52:47.200
These wars are like, you think about Vietnam.

1379
00:52:47.200 --> 00:52:48.760
These wars are never really one.

1380
00:52:48.760 --> 00:52:52.120
No, well, America hasn't won a war since World War II.

1381
00:52:52.120 --> 00:52:54.000
And even World War II was won by the Russians

1382
00:52:54.000 --> 00:52:55.880
more so than the Americans.

1383
00:52:55.880 --> 00:52:57.480
So we have this picture of America

1384
00:52:57.480 --> 00:53:00.320
as being this invincible military power,

1385
00:53:00.320 --> 00:53:03.120
but it lost in Vietnam, it lost in Iraq,

1386
00:53:03.120 --> 00:53:04.800
it lost in Afghanistan.

1387
00:53:04.800 --> 00:53:06.320
America's failed in all of these.

1388
00:53:06.320 --> 00:53:08.640
This is another American failure,

1389
00:53:08.640 --> 00:53:11.560
but on a scale far beyond what happened in Afghanistan

1390
00:53:11.560 --> 00:53:12.560
and Vietnam.

1391
00:53:12.560 --> 00:53:14.280
Do you think he will send ground troops in?

1392
00:53:14.280 --> 00:53:15.640
Yes, I do.

1393
00:53:15.640 --> 00:53:17.000
And like I've seen people talking about

1394
00:53:17.000 --> 00:53:18.280
where the troops might land

1395
00:53:18.320 --> 00:53:19.640
and the only part of deck in the land

1396
00:53:19.640 --> 00:53:22.720
is right towards this edge here with Pakistan.

1397
00:53:22.720 --> 00:53:26.040
Where they might land to between two and 10,000 troops,

1398
00:53:26.040 --> 00:53:27.360
I'd hate to be one of those troops

1399
00:53:27.360 --> 00:53:29.080
because it's a suicide mission.

1400
00:53:29.080 --> 00:53:31.120
Again, with those 31 provinces,

1401
00:53:31.120 --> 00:53:34.360
the separated military commands they've got,

1402
00:53:34.360 --> 00:53:36.280
the weapons they've got hidden underground,

1403
00:53:36.280 --> 00:53:37.360
the troops themselves.

1404
00:53:37.360 --> 00:53:40.280
So if you know that there are Americans landing

1405
00:53:40.280 --> 00:53:43.000
and you're Iranian and a soldier,

1406
00:53:43.000 --> 00:53:46.480
you are going to attack them like nobody's business

1407
00:53:46.480 --> 00:53:47.920
and not be afraid of your own death

1408
00:53:47.920 --> 00:53:50.120
because you do think if you get murdered,

1409
00:53:50.120 --> 00:53:52.120
it's the remaining people that you are defending,

1410
00:53:52.120 --> 00:53:54.960
there will be people who will recognize you as a martyr.

1411
00:53:54.960 --> 00:53:56.280
It's horrific.

1412
00:53:56.280 --> 00:53:58.360
If you had to give a sort of percentage probability

1413
00:53:58.360 --> 00:54:00.000
of them putting ground troops in.

1414
00:54:00.000 --> 00:54:01.880
I'll say more than 50%.

1415
00:54:01.880 --> 00:54:04.560
We're going to find out in the next couple of weeks.

1416
00:54:04.560 --> 00:54:06.160
Much of the reason most people

1417
00:54:06.160 --> 00:54:08.160
haven't posted content or got their personal brand

1418
00:54:08.160 --> 00:54:10.800
is because it's hard and it's time consuming

1419
00:54:10.800 --> 00:54:12.320
and we're all very, very busy.

1420
00:54:12.320 --> 00:54:15.160
And if you've never posted something before,

1421
00:54:15.160 --> 00:54:17.680
there's so many factors in your psychology

1422
00:54:17.680 --> 00:54:19.360
that stop you wanting to post.

1423
00:54:19.360 --> 00:54:20.680
What people will think of you.

1424
00:54:20.680 --> 00:54:21.640
Am I doing this right?

1425
00:54:21.640 --> 00:54:24.040
Is the thing I'm saying absolutely stupid?

1426
00:54:24.040 --> 00:54:26.160
All of these result in paralysis,

1427
00:54:26.160 --> 00:54:29.800
which means you don't post and your feed goes bare.

1428
00:54:29.800 --> 00:54:32.080
I'm an investor in a company called Stan Store,

1429
00:54:32.080 --> 00:54:33.400
which you've probably had me talk about.

1430
00:54:33.400 --> 00:54:35.080
And what they've been building is this new tool

1431
00:54:35.080 --> 00:54:38.000
called Stanley that uses AI, looks at your feed,

1432
00:54:38.000 --> 00:54:39.720
looks at your tone of voice, looks at your history,

1433
00:54:39.720 --> 00:54:41.280
looks at your best performing posts

1434
00:54:41.280 --> 00:54:43.120
and tells you what you should post.

1435
00:54:43.120 --> 00:54:44.760
Makes those posts for you.

1436
00:54:44.760 --> 00:54:47.200
You can also use it for inspiration

1437
00:54:47.240 --> 00:54:48.960
and sometimes what we need when we're thinking

1438
00:54:48.960 --> 00:54:51.000
about doing a post for our social media channels

1439
00:54:51.000 --> 00:54:52.280
is inspiration.

1440
00:54:52.280 --> 00:54:54.720
Building an audience has fundamentally changed my life

1441
00:54:54.720 --> 00:54:56.400
and I think it could change yours too.

1442
00:54:56.400 --> 00:54:59.400
So I'm inviting you to give this new tool a shot

1443
00:54:59.400 --> 00:55:00.840
and let me know what you think.

1444
00:55:00.840 --> 00:55:03.560
All you have to do is search coach.stan.store

1445
00:55:03.560 --> 00:55:05.240
now to get started.

1446
00:55:05.240 --> 00:55:06.560
This company that I've just invested in,

1447
00:55:06.560 --> 00:55:07.600
it's growing like crazy.

1448
00:55:07.600 --> 00:55:08.880
I want to be the one to tell you about it

1449
00:55:08.880 --> 00:55:09.800
because I think it's going to create

1450
00:55:09.800 --> 00:55:11.800
such a huge productivity advantage for you.

1451
00:55:11.800 --> 00:55:14.360
This flow is an app that you can get on your computer

1452
00:55:14.360 --> 00:55:15.960
and on your phone on all your devices

1453
00:55:15.960 --> 00:55:17.760
and it allows you to speak to your technology.

1454
00:55:17.760 --> 00:55:19.120
So instead of me writing at an email,

1455
00:55:19.120 --> 00:55:20.760
I click one button on my phone

1456
00:55:20.760 --> 00:55:23.400
and I can just speak the email into existence

1457
00:55:23.400 --> 00:55:26.200
and it uses AI to clean up what I was saying.

1458
00:55:26.200 --> 00:55:28.320
And then when I'm done, I just hit this one button here

1459
00:55:28.320 --> 00:55:30.080
and the whole email is written for me

1460
00:55:30.080 --> 00:55:33.280
and it's saving me so much time in a day

1461
00:55:33.280 --> 00:55:35.160
because Whisper learns how I write.

1462
00:55:35.160 --> 00:55:36.480
So on WhatsApp it knows how I am,

1463
00:55:36.480 --> 00:55:37.520
a little bit more casual,

1464
00:55:37.520 --> 00:55:39.240
on email a little bit more professional.

1465
00:55:39.240 --> 00:55:40.560
And also there's this really interesting thing

1466
00:55:40.560 --> 00:55:41.400
they've just done.

1467
00:55:41.400 --> 00:55:43.680
I can create little phrases to automatically

1468
00:55:43.680 --> 00:55:44.520
do the work for me.

1469
00:55:44.520 --> 00:55:46.200
I can just say Jack's LinkedIn

1470
00:55:46.200 --> 00:55:48.280
and it copies Jack's LinkedIn profile for me

1471
00:55:48.280 --> 00:55:50.040
because it knows who Jack is in my life.

1472
00:55:50.040 --> 00:55:51.280
This is saving me a huge amount of time.

1473
00:55:51.280 --> 00:55:53.920
This company is growing like absolute crazy.

1474
00:55:53.920 --> 00:55:55.360
And this is why I invested in the business

1475
00:55:55.360 --> 00:55:56.880
and why they now are splinter of this show.

1476
00:55:56.880 --> 00:56:00.080
And Whisper Flow is frankly becoming the worst kept secret

1477
00:56:00.080 --> 00:56:02.040
in business productivity entrepreneurship.

1478
00:56:02.040 --> 00:56:03.600
Check it out now at Whisper Flow,

1479
00:56:03.600 --> 00:56:08.600
spot w-i-s-p-r-f-l-o-w-dot-a-i-slash-diven.

1480
00:56:09.440 --> 00:56:10.960
It will be a game change, if you.

1481
00:56:11.960 --> 00:56:13.880
What is the best case scenario?

1482
00:56:13.880 --> 00:56:16.320
The Americans have to realize they've lost.

1483
00:56:16.320 --> 00:56:19.040
They've not gonna negotiate the terms of reparation.

1484
00:56:19.040 --> 00:56:20.640
And what Iran has proposed,

1485
00:56:20.640 --> 00:56:22.240
when you look at Iran's terms,

1486
00:56:22.240 --> 00:56:23.720
they're extremely reasonable.

1487
00:56:23.720 --> 00:56:26.680
They're saying America leaves the whole Asia.

1488
00:56:26.680 --> 00:56:28.920
America no longer comes back in this region,

1489
00:56:28.920 --> 00:56:32.400
no military bases, no agreements.

1490
00:56:32.400 --> 00:56:34.560
This becomes Iranian protectorate

1491
00:56:34.560 --> 00:56:36.240
that becomes an Arabian empire,

1492
00:56:36.240 --> 00:56:37.800
or not Arabian Iranian empire

1493
00:56:37.800 --> 00:56:40.960
because they're not Arabs, they're Persians.

1494
00:56:40.960 --> 00:56:43.840
So this becomes like a Muslim part of the world.

1495
00:56:43.840 --> 00:56:47.800
That's, you can actually take the whole region out to here.

1496
00:56:47.800 --> 00:56:49.040
It's all Muslim.

1497
00:56:49.040 --> 00:56:50.040
And what's been happening,

1498
00:56:50.040 --> 00:56:52.560
and this is part of the weird religious elements here,

1499
00:56:52.560 --> 00:56:55.240
you've got the Sunni sect and the Shiite sect,

1500
00:56:55.240 --> 00:56:57.960
which is a bit like the Protestants versus the Catholics.

1501
00:56:57.960 --> 00:56:59.600
Go back 500 years,

1502
00:56:59.600 --> 00:57:02.840
and what we're seeing here is like the Hundred Years War

1503
00:57:02.840 --> 00:57:05.320
that occurred in Europe back in the days

1504
00:57:05.320 --> 00:57:06.520
when it was Protestant,

1505
00:57:06.520 --> 00:57:09.040
but his Catholic was a serious thing.

1506
00:57:09.040 --> 00:57:11.560
So we're seeing a religious war being fought here,

1507
00:57:11.560 --> 00:57:13.560
and the Sunni majority,

1508
00:57:13.560 --> 00:57:15.680
about 90% of Muslims are Sunni.

1509
00:57:15.680 --> 00:57:18.720
They have focused on their rival with the Shiites.

1510
00:57:18.720 --> 00:57:21.600
And so what they've done is they've sided with this mob

1511
00:57:21.600 --> 00:57:25.200
to enable the states to sit,

1512
00:57:25.200 --> 00:57:26.880
so they've sided with the Christians

1513
00:57:26.880 --> 00:57:29.200
to strengthen their own Muslim sect,

1514
00:57:29.200 --> 00:57:31.840
which is the Sunni sect against the Shiite sect,

1515
00:57:31.840 --> 00:57:34.320
which is Iran is predominantly Shiite.

1516
00:57:34.320 --> 00:57:35.880
Now what's happening here is,

1517
00:57:35.880 --> 00:57:37.520
as soon as the war started,

1518
00:57:37.520 --> 00:57:42.520
America, there wasn't the Arabs agreed to a bases here,

1519
00:57:42.840 --> 00:57:44.160
middle tree bases,

1520
00:57:44.160 --> 00:57:46.360
as they thought it would protect them from Iran.

1521
00:57:46.360 --> 00:57:47.520
As soon as the war starts,

1522
00:57:47.520 --> 00:57:49.360
those bases are all bit errated,

1523
00:57:49.360 --> 00:57:50.840
the Americans leave,

1524
00:57:50.840 --> 00:57:52.800
and they realize that hasn't worked at all.

1525
00:57:52.800 --> 00:57:56.000
So the deal the Sunnis may decide with the Christians

1526
00:57:56.000 --> 00:57:58.840
has proved to be an extremely bad deal.

1527
00:57:58.840 --> 00:58:01.800
You're gonna have to have change in who rules these countries

1528
00:58:01.800 --> 00:58:03.080
to enable it to happen,

1529
00:58:03.080 --> 00:58:05.760
but I think the persuasive case coming out of this

1530
00:58:05.760 --> 00:58:07.800
within the Muslim areas is,

1531
00:58:07.800 --> 00:58:09.480
Muslims stick together,

1532
00:58:09.480 --> 00:58:11.400
don't cooperate with the Christians.

1533
00:58:11.400 --> 00:58:12.680
Don't cooperate with the United States,

1534
00:58:12.680 --> 00:58:14.160
but that's what's gonna happen.

1535
00:58:14.160 --> 00:58:15.440
You think that's gonna happen?

1536
00:58:15.440 --> 00:58:16.280
I hope so,

1537
00:58:16.280 --> 00:58:17.600
because that at least gives us something

1538
00:58:17.600 --> 00:58:18.960
which is relatively stable.

1539
00:58:18.960 --> 00:58:20.960
This becomes a region that is Muslim.

1540
00:58:20.960 --> 00:58:21.800
When you say that this,

1541
00:58:21.800 --> 00:58:22.640
you mean the Middle East?

1542
00:58:22.640 --> 00:58:23.480
I mean, the whole Middle East,

1543
00:58:23.480 --> 00:58:26.360
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Pakistan as well,

1544
00:58:26.360 --> 00:58:28.960
because it's a Muslim country, Afghanistan.

1545
00:58:28.960 --> 00:58:32.240
This region becomes Muslim dominated,

1546
00:58:32.240 --> 00:58:33.920
Shiites and Sunnis start to,

1547
00:58:33.920 --> 00:58:37.440
I mean, the whole idea of Catholics fighting Protestants,

1548
00:58:37.440 --> 00:58:39.680
that's completely dissipated.

1549
00:58:39.680 --> 00:58:42.440
There's no level in the West anymore

1550
00:58:42.440 --> 00:58:45.440
of large scale military type animosity

1551
00:58:45.440 --> 00:58:48.560
between Catholics and Protestants.

1552
00:58:48.560 --> 00:58:50.800
That's what's happening over here.

1553
00:58:50.800 --> 00:58:52.880
The conflicts, those religious conflicts

1554
00:58:52.880 --> 00:58:57.080
within the Christians disappeared largely speaking.

1555
00:58:57.080 --> 00:59:00.520
They're still happening within the Muslim religion.

1556
00:59:00.520 --> 00:59:03.120
This could persuade them that that's gotta end.

1557
00:59:03.120 --> 00:59:06.000
So we've got one more scenario, scenario five.

1558
00:59:06.000 --> 00:59:08.040
Around develops nuclear weapons.

1559
00:59:08.040 --> 00:59:09.880
I'd rather fall happen than five.

1560
00:59:09.880 --> 00:59:12.240
Which of these five outcomes do you think

1561
00:59:12.240 --> 00:59:14.240
is most probable to happen?

1562
00:59:15.720 --> 00:59:17.800
I think the most likely outcome

1563
00:59:17.800 --> 00:59:19.240
is around disables,

1564
00:59:19.240 --> 00:59:21.000
Israel's nuclear weapons,

1565
00:59:21.000 --> 00:59:23.840
because Iran has been so prepared for this conflict

1566
00:59:23.840 --> 00:59:25.280
in a way that America has not,

1567
00:59:25.280 --> 00:59:26.760
in a way that Israel was not.

1568
00:59:26.760 --> 00:59:28.560
I hope they're also prepared

1569
00:59:28.560 --> 00:59:31.000
for the eventuality of having to neutralize

1570
00:59:31.000 --> 00:59:32.480
Israel's nuclear weapons.

1571
00:59:32.480 --> 00:59:33.920
Do you think the highest probability

1572
00:59:33.920 --> 00:59:36.160
is around disabling Israel's nukes?

1573
00:59:36.160 --> 00:59:37.160
Yeah.

1574
00:59:37.160 --> 00:59:38.000
I have one right.

1575
00:59:38.000 --> 00:59:39.760
I mean, if Iran gets destroyed,

1576
00:59:39.760 --> 00:59:41.440
then this leads not to

1577
00:59:41.440 --> 00:59:43.480
around developing nuclear weapons,

1578
00:59:43.480 --> 00:59:46.320
but every potential rival for America

1579
00:59:46.320 --> 00:59:49.080
on the planet developing nuclear weapons.

1580
00:59:49.080 --> 00:59:51.600
We're going to a nuclear war-dominated world.

1581
00:59:51.600 --> 00:59:53.880
Do you not think it's more likely

1582
00:59:53.880 --> 00:59:56.560
that Trump is gonna find himself

1583
00:59:56.560 --> 00:59:58.600
a golden bridge to get out of this situation?

1584
00:59:58.600 --> 01:00:00.080
He's gonna call Netanyahu and Israel

1585
01:00:00.080 --> 01:00:02.720
and say, stand down, please.

1586
01:00:02.720 --> 01:00:04.520
I'm gonna announce that we've won this war.

1587
01:00:04.520 --> 01:00:06.480
I'm gonna announce that we've done a deal.

1588
01:00:06.480 --> 01:00:08.240
It's all over.

1589
01:00:08.240 --> 01:00:10.000
Well, without doubt whatever happens,

1590
01:00:10.000 --> 01:00:12.440
Trump is gonna say he won, okay?

1591
01:00:12.440 --> 01:00:15.560
That's again the narcissistic personality disorder thing.

1592
01:00:15.560 --> 01:00:17.760
He simply couldn't bring himself

1593
01:00:17.760 --> 01:00:20.040
to stand on a stage and say, I lost.

1594
01:00:20.040 --> 01:00:21.560
I mean, think about the biggest insult

1595
01:00:21.560 --> 01:00:24.000
that Trump ever made in his apprenticeship show.

1596
01:00:24.000 --> 01:00:25.600
You're a loser, okay?

1597
01:00:25.600 --> 01:00:28.480
Being a loser is the absolute worst possible thing

1598
01:00:28.520 --> 01:00:30.360
than anybody can be in his mind.

1599
01:00:30.360 --> 01:00:32.040
If he has a say on a loser,

1600
01:00:32.040 --> 01:00:34.280
then his life is over in that sense.

1601
01:00:34.280 --> 01:00:37.400
He's self-image is over.

1602
01:00:37.400 --> 01:00:40.480
So whatever deal comes out, he's gonna say he won.

1603
01:00:40.480 --> 01:00:42.480
For the average person that's listening now,

1604
01:00:42.480 --> 01:00:45.040
when they hear all this conflict going on in the world,

1605
01:00:45.040 --> 01:00:47.400
from an economic perspective,

1606
01:00:47.400 --> 01:00:49.440
is there anything they can be doing

1607
01:00:49.440 --> 01:00:50.600
to protect themselves

1608
01:00:50.600 --> 01:00:52.360
against some of these downstream consequences?

1609
01:00:52.360 --> 01:00:54.360
Well, I think one thing is people,

1610
01:00:54.360 --> 01:00:56.320
we've now got to the stage where you can buy

1611
01:00:56.320 --> 01:01:00.280
your own solar systems for your house.

1612
01:01:00.280 --> 01:01:02.000
You need something which means you're not dependent

1613
01:01:02.000 --> 01:01:03.880
upon oil anymore.

1614
01:01:03.880 --> 01:01:06.680
I think we've trivialized the dangers of climate change

1615
01:01:06.680 --> 01:01:08.240
with the last half century.

1616
01:01:08.240 --> 01:01:10.720
We've done very little about it to reverse it.

1617
01:01:10.720 --> 01:01:13.760
This is telling people that if you're aligned upon oil,

1618
01:01:13.760 --> 01:01:15.760
you've got a fragile existence.

1619
01:01:15.760 --> 01:01:18.160
Even if it cost you more to build solar,

1620
01:01:18.160 --> 01:01:20.400
you've got to build solar as your own alternative energy

1621
01:01:20.400 --> 01:01:24.040
system because without energy, there's no civilization.

1622
01:01:24.040 --> 01:01:25.520
And that's what we're learning the hard way

1623
01:01:25.520 --> 01:01:26.680
from this conflict.

1624
01:01:26.680 --> 01:01:29.840
So I think individual responses is going to be,

1625
01:01:29.840 --> 01:01:32.440
get some way to have your own power source.

1626
01:01:32.440 --> 01:01:35.000
And for most people, that means having a solar.

1627
01:01:35.000 --> 01:01:37.320
One man that has done a lot for both solar

1628
01:01:37.320 --> 01:01:40.400
and sustainable energy is Elon Musk.

1629
01:01:40.400 --> 01:01:43.600
He has, and he's also helped get bloody plant collected.

1630
01:01:43.600 --> 01:01:46.320
So I think you've got to score that against him as well.

1631
01:01:46.320 --> 01:01:49.800
But yeah, his work on solar and power and rocketry,

1632
01:01:49.800 --> 01:01:51.800
I've absolutely admired that.

1633
01:01:51.800 --> 01:01:54.760
And I see that as a critical, positive contribution.

1634
01:01:54.760 --> 01:01:57.480
But getting Trump elected, he'd play the major role in that.

1635
01:01:57.480 --> 01:01:58.800
He should learn from that mistake

1636
01:01:58.800 --> 01:02:00.800
and get the fuck out of politics.

1637
01:02:00.800 --> 01:02:02.920
He has backed off politics now, which is...

1638
01:02:02.920 --> 01:02:05.040
I think he's realized how poisonous it is.

1639
01:02:05.040 --> 01:02:05.880
Yeah.

1640
01:02:05.880 --> 01:02:08.040
Sounds like he's realized you can't really change the beast.

1641
01:02:08.040 --> 01:02:09.120
No, he tried.

1642
01:02:09.120 --> 01:02:09.960
Yeah.

1643
01:02:09.960 --> 01:02:11.360
He should stick with the arrow, he's mature,

1644
01:02:11.360 --> 01:02:12.960
which is what he does with energy systems

1645
01:02:12.960 --> 01:02:14.640
and what he does with rocketry.

1646
01:02:14.640 --> 01:02:17.920
He's really, I mean, in terms of legacy,

1647
01:02:17.920 --> 01:02:20.480
he's tainted his legacy by getting involved in politics,

1648
01:02:20.480 --> 01:02:22.320
go back to engineering.

1649
01:02:22.320 --> 01:02:25.640
So you say that, you think people should invest in solar

1650
01:02:25.640 --> 01:02:28.440
for their homes to get their own energy sources of it.

1651
01:02:28.440 --> 01:02:30.800
They're a little bit insulated from these sort of macroeconomics.

1652
01:02:30.800 --> 01:02:32.880
Is there anything else they should be thinking about?

1653
01:02:32.880 --> 01:02:34.840
You know, the average person, the cost of living crisis,

1654
01:02:34.840 --> 01:02:36.080
what happens next?

1655
01:02:36.080 --> 01:02:37.080
What should they be doing now?

1656
01:02:37.080 --> 01:02:38.320
The things that I'm most worried about,

1657
01:02:38.320 --> 01:02:39.880
this is the impact upon food.

1658
01:02:39.880 --> 01:02:44.360
I'm the last person to talk about growing your own food.

1659
01:02:44.360 --> 01:02:45.880
I've never done it.

1660
01:02:45.880 --> 01:02:48.800
I've got brown thumbs, not green ones.

1661
01:02:48.880 --> 01:02:52.320
But I think if you can have any way to produce your own food,

1662
01:02:52.320 --> 01:02:53.960
you've got a bit of insulation

1663
01:02:53.960 --> 01:02:55.960
against what's happening at the global level.

1664
01:02:55.960 --> 01:02:59.280
The lesson that comes out of this is self-sufficiency.

1665
01:02:59.280 --> 01:03:01.240
If we don't have self-sufficiency,

1666
01:03:01.240 --> 01:03:03.280
then these sorts of global chaotic things

1667
01:03:03.280 --> 01:03:05.000
can destroy you completely,

1668
01:03:05.000 --> 01:03:06.480
with you having no recompense.

1669
01:03:06.480 --> 01:03:09.760
If you have some degree of self-sufficiency, you can survive.

1670
01:03:09.760 --> 01:03:11.400
And how does one create self-sufficiency?

1671
01:03:11.400 --> 01:03:13.640
Growing your own food is quite expensive and slow, isn't it?

1672
01:03:13.640 --> 01:03:14.640
Yeah, extremely.

1673
01:03:14.640 --> 01:03:17.000
So how does one develop self-sufficiency

1674
01:03:17.000 --> 01:03:18.360
in these sort of economic climates?

1675
01:03:18.360 --> 01:03:20.200
Is it saving money?

1676
01:03:20.200 --> 01:03:21.360
Or is it...

1677
01:03:21.360 --> 01:03:24.160
Well, I think it's having your own physical resources

1678
01:03:24.160 --> 01:03:25.800
close to you that I know we...

1679
01:03:25.800 --> 01:03:27.920
If money doesn't matter if you can't buy the product

1680
01:03:27.920 --> 01:03:29.320
in the first instance,

1681
01:03:29.320 --> 01:03:31.120
the product doesn't exist anymore.

1682
01:03:31.120 --> 01:03:33.840
So I one thing that happened during World War II

1683
01:03:33.840 --> 01:03:36.320
is a larger amount of food was grown in the UK

1684
01:03:36.320 --> 01:03:39.560
by people turning their gardens into market gardens.

1685
01:03:39.560 --> 01:03:41.480
I've heard you make a few predictions

1686
01:03:41.480 --> 01:03:44.040
about the future of the economic markets.

1687
01:03:44.040 --> 01:03:46.400
You're famous for predicting 2008

1688
01:03:46.400 --> 01:03:48.360
when the financial crash occurred then.

1689
01:03:48.360 --> 01:03:49.800
I've heard you saying that you think

1690
01:03:49.800 --> 01:03:52.240
because of AI there's gonna be another financial crash

1691
01:03:52.240 --> 01:03:54.080
around the corner within one or two years.

1692
01:03:54.080 --> 01:03:54.920
Yeah.

1693
01:03:54.920 --> 01:03:59.640
What's happening with AI is a classic economic burn and bust cycle.

1694
01:03:59.640 --> 01:04:03.120
Overlaid on the fact that AI can also eliminate

1695
01:04:03.120 --> 01:04:04.880
a huge amount of employment,

1696
01:04:04.880 --> 01:04:07.640
which would never seen that possibility

1697
01:04:07.640 --> 01:04:09.360
in the past on that scale.

1698
01:04:09.360 --> 01:04:12.000
But a common pattern in capitalism

1699
01:04:12.000 --> 01:04:14.400
is that some new technology will be developed

1700
01:04:14.400 --> 01:04:16.400
like railways, for example.

1701
01:04:16.400 --> 01:04:19.840
Some people see the potential profitability of railways.

1702
01:04:19.840 --> 01:04:22.720
Everybody pours in creating railways.

1703
01:04:22.720 --> 01:04:25.000
You get too many railways built.

1704
01:04:25.000 --> 01:04:28.400
The 90% of the companies that create the railways go bust.

1705
01:04:28.400 --> 01:04:30.640
But then we all have these rail systems

1706
01:04:30.640 --> 01:04:32.440
that we benefit from afterwards.

1707
01:04:32.440 --> 01:04:35.080
So that's the classic pattern.

1708
01:04:35.080 --> 01:04:37.440
Joseph Schumpeter was the person who best described

1709
01:04:37.440 --> 01:04:39.600
that Austrian economist

1710
01:04:39.600 --> 01:04:42.320
when the early 20th century.

1711
01:04:42.320 --> 01:04:44.760
So he said, you'll get the banks will finance

1712
01:04:44.760 --> 01:04:46.200
a new investment area.

1713
01:04:46.200 --> 01:04:48.480
That investment produces a new technology

1714
01:04:48.480 --> 01:04:51.520
which causes a burn while you're building the technology.

1715
01:04:51.520 --> 01:04:53.240
But when the technology comes online,

1716
01:04:53.240 --> 01:04:57.000
it undercuts existing businesses and causes a slump.

1717
01:04:57.000 --> 01:04:58.880
So they're burn and slump cycle.

1718
01:04:58.880 --> 01:05:01.400
And AI is a natural example of that.

1719
01:05:01.400 --> 01:05:03.240
And what you get is massive over investment

1720
01:05:03.240 --> 01:05:04.160
in the first instance

1721
01:05:04.160 --> 01:05:07.160
because everybody who invests in AI

1722
01:05:07.160 --> 01:05:10.600
has the ambition of being the only AI provider on the planet.

1723
01:05:10.600 --> 01:05:12.520
Therefore you get too many companies investing

1724
01:05:12.520 --> 01:05:14.200
there's too much money going into it.

1725
01:05:14.200 --> 01:05:15.840
That's what causes a burn.

1726
01:05:15.840 --> 01:05:18.120
But then when the technology comes online

1727
01:05:18.120 --> 01:05:21.320
because it undercuts existing technologies, you have a slump.

1728
01:05:21.320 --> 01:05:23.360
And when you look at the investment taking place

1729
01:05:23.360 --> 01:05:24.360
at the moment,

1730
01:05:24.360 --> 01:05:25.480
the big tech companies,

1731
01:05:25.480 --> 01:05:27.640
Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet,

1732
01:05:27.640 --> 01:05:29.400
their own Google, Oracle,

1733
01:05:29.400 --> 01:05:33.720
is on track to spend 720 billion

1734
01:05:33.720 --> 01:05:36.440
on AI infrastructure in 2026 alone,

1735
01:05:36.440 --> 01:05:40.960
which is less than 20% of the revenue that they're making.

1736
01:05:40.960 --> 01:05:43.080
We are seeing a five to one ratio

1737
01:05:43.080 --> 01:05:45.760
of money being spent versus money coming in,

1738
01:05:45.760 --> 01:05:47.720
which is historically unsustainable.

1739
01:05:47.720 --> 01:05:48.920
Yeah, and I think that's true.

1740
01:05:48.920 --> 01:05:51.120
There has to be a slump coming out of this.

1741
01:05:51.120 --> 01:05:53.600
And in a sense that's part of the natural

1742
01:05:53.600 --> 01:05:56.200
cyclical behavior of capitalism.

1743
01:05:56.200 --> 01:05:57.320
Because if you want to make a profit,

1744
01:05:57.320 --> 01:05:58.560
you've got to bring in technology

1745
01:05:58.560 --> 01:06:01.480
that undercuts everybody you're currently rivals with.

1746
01:06:01.480 --> 01:06:04.120
So that's the Railway's a classic example there.

1747
01:06:04.120 --> 01:06:06.520
You know, you had to get around by carriages instead.

1748
01:06:06.520 --> 01:06:07.920
You undermine the carriage companies

1749
01:06:07.920 --> 01:06:09.440
by bringing in the railways.

1750
01:06:09.440 --> 01:06:11.320
But the ultimate benefit, society benefits

1751
01:06:11.320 --> 01:06:14.200
because now you've got the railways for transportation.

1752
01:06:14.200 --> 01:06:15.560
So that's the same sort of thing

1753
01:06:15.560 --> 01:06:17.560
that AI is doing this time around.

1754
01:06:17.560 --> 01:06:20.480
But companies, 90% of those companies are going to fail.

1755
01:06:20.480 --> 01:06:21.600
I mean, this is kind of what we're seeing already.

1756
01:06:21.600 --> 01:06:23.560
So the failure rate of AI specific startups

1757
01:06:23.560 --> 01:06:25.760
has hit 90% in 2026.

1758
01:06:25.760 --> 01:06:27.040
Wow, that's luck.

1759
01:06:27.040 --> 01:06:28.760
Yeah, you predicted that one correctly.

1760
01:06:28.760 --> 01:06:30.960
Significantly higher than the 70% average

1761
01:06:30.960 --> 01:06:32.080
for general technology,

1762
01:06:32.080 --> 01:06:34.600
roughly 95% of enterprise AI pilots

1763
01:06:34.600 --> 01:06:36.640
failed to move into production

1764
01:06:36.640 --> 01:06:37.800
when they incur massive costs.

1765
01:06:37.800 --> 01:06:41.960
The other thing I think a lot about is a lot of startups now

1766
01:06:41.960 --> 01:06:44.760
raising a lot of money, a crazy, crazy valuation.

1767
01:06:44.760 --> 01:06:47.080
So I can think of one particular startup I know.

1768
01:06:47.080 --> 01:06:49.320
They're making like a couple of million dollars a year.

1769
01:06:49.320 --> 01:06:50.960
They've raised it a billion dollar valuation.

1770
01:06:50.960 --> 01:06:51.800
Wow, yeah.

1771
01:06:51.800 --> 01:06:53.920
And because they've got the word AI on them.

1772
01:06:53.920 --> 01:06:55.360
And the thing is,

1773
01:06:55.360 --> 01:06:57.040
because everyone's so such an offrensier

1774
01:06:57.040 --> 01:06:57.880
at the moment about AI,

1775
01:06:57.880 --> 01:06:58.640
they're probably going to raise it

1776
01:06:58.640 --> 01:07:00.520
at a two billion valuation six months from now.

1777
01:07:00.800 --> 01:07:02.080
When you think about what's going on there,

1778
01:07:02.080 --> 01:07:04.520
someone somewhere is putting their money in.

1779
01:07:04.520 --> 01:07:05.440
And they're going to lose it all.

1780
01:07:05.440 --> 01:07:06.480
And they're going to lose it all.

1781
01:07:06.480 --> 01:07:08.520
And when everybody starts losing all their money

1782
01:07:08.520 --> 01:07:10.640
very, very quickly, you see this contraction

1783
01:07:10.640 --> 01:07:12.720
where everybody realizes that their paper gains,

1784
01:07:12.720 --> 01:07:14.280
the gains they thought they had on paper

1785
01:07:14.280 --> 01:07:17.400
because a valuation went up, have just evaporated.

1786
01:07:17.400 --> 01:07:18.400
And when you see that,

1787
01:07:18.400 --> 01:07:21.480
you have to quickly count your pennies and get frugal.

1788
01:07:21.480 --> 01:07:22.520
And pull back in again.

1789
01:07:22.520 --> 01:07:25.640
Pull back in again, lay people off and so on and so forth.

1790
01:07:25.640 --> 01:07:28.880
So I actually do personally believe that we're probably

1791
01:07:28.880 --> 01:07:32.200
within 24 months of a pretty severe contraction.

1792
01:07:32.200 --> 01:07:35.320
And that won't just impact these tech oligarchs.

1793
01:07:35.320 --> 01:07:37.600
They'll impact all of us in different ways.

1794
01:07:37.600 --> 01:07:39.160
Yeah, it's a vermin bus cycle.

1795
01:07:39.160 --> 01:07:41.240
I mean, the only thing which we've experienced

1796
01:07:41.240 --> 01:07:42.560
in our own lives, which is similar,

1797
01:07:42.560 --> 01:07:44.920
would be the telecommunications bubble

1798
01:07:44.920 --> 01:07:46.000
and then the internet bubble,

1799
01:07:46.000 --> 01:07:50.320
who we're not in 90 in 2001, 2002.

1800
01:07:50.320 --> 01:07:52.040
We don't get bubbles in the internet anymore

1801
01:07:52.040 --> 01:07:55.680
because that's now a stable technology in that sense.

1802
01:07:55.680 --> 01:07:56.680
But it wasn't a big one.

1803
01:07:56.680 --> 01:07:57.880
This is much bigger.

1804
01:07:57.880 --> 01:07:59.720
What do we do?

1805
01:07:59.720 --> 01:08:02.480
As entrepreneurs, as team members and companies,

1806
01:08:02.480 --> 01:08:03.640
what do we do at this moment

1807
01:08:03.640 --> 01:08:04.840
if what you're saying is correct

1808
01:08:04.840 --> 01:08:06.720
that there will be a...

1809
01:08:06.720 --> 01:08:07.560
A boom in bust.

1810
01:08:07.560 --> 01:08:08.680
A boom in bust.

1811
01:08:08.680 --> 01:08:10.280
Which I think every smart person

1812
01:08:10.280 --> 01:08:13.600
that I've spoken to agrees that there will be a bust soon,

1813
01:08:13.600 --> 01:08:15.320
their timelines vary.

1814
01:08:15.320 --> 01:08:18.320
But what does one do right now

1815
01:08:18.320 --> 01:08:22.360
in March, April, 2026 to prepare for this?

1816
01:08:22.360 --> 01:08:23.800
Well, you put money aside if you can.

1817
01:08:23.800 --> 01:08:24.640
You buy other assets.

1818
01:08:24.640 --> 01:08:27.240
You think you're gonna survive the boom in bust cycle.

1819
01:08:27.920 --> 01:08:28.880
That's the trouble.

1820
01:08:28.880 --> 01:08:29.960
I mean, gold's been driven up.

1821
01:08:29.960 --> 01:08:31.920
Gold's not been driven down.

1822
01:08:31.920 --> 01:08:32.960
People are buying Bitcoin,

1823
01:08:32.960 --> 01:08:35.320
but Bitcoin is collapsing as well.

1824
01:08:35.320 --> 01:08:36.920
In some ways, you really...

1825
01:08:36.920 --> 01:08:38.720
It's like saying,

1826
01:08:38.720 --> 01:08:41.400
what do I do during an earthquake to not fall over?

1827
01:08:41.400 --> 01:08:42.680
In terms of insulating yourself,

1828
01:08:42.680 --> 01:08:45.160
I really can't see a way of insulating yourself

1829
01:08:45.160 --> 01:08:46.120
from the downturn.

1830
01:08:46.120 --> 01:08:50.480
But I'm not worried about that as long-term consequences of AI

1831
01:08:50.480 --> 01:08:53.400
because this is the first technology

1832
01:08:53.400 --> 01:08:56.640
which implies you can actually virtually eliminate labor

1833
01:08:56.640 --> 01:08:58.880
as necessary for reducing output

1834
01:08:58.880 --> 01:09:01.680
because you can use AI rather than clocks.

1835
01:09:01.680 --> 01:09:03.120
You can use...

1836
01:09:03.120 --> 01:09:05.360
I know this is a long way from being feasible,

1837
01:09:05.360 --> 01:09:07.960
but robots could replace process workers.

1838
01:09:07.960 --> 01:09:09.280
And then suddenly,

1839
01:09:09.280 --> 01:09:13.320
something which employs 70% of the global population

1840
01:09:13.320 --> 01:09:15.080
is no longer necessary.

1841
01:09:15.080 --> 01:09:17.760
And then what do you do in that situation?

1842
01:09:17.760 --> 01:09:19.640
What I've seen, which I respect,

1843
01:09:19.640 --> 01:09:22.520
coming out of the tech bros in America,

1844
01:09:22.520 --> 01:09:25.480
is they're talking in terms of universal basic income?

1845
01:09:25.480 --> 01:09:27.440
You think a universal basic income is a good idea.

1846
01:09:27.440 --> 01:09:29.400
I do. We should probably explain what that is.

1847
01:09:29.400 --> 01:09:30.600
Yeah. Well, it's...

1848
01:09:30.600 --> 01:09:35.200
The state provides everybody with enough money to stay alive.

1849
01:09:35.200 --> 01:09:36.520
That's the basic idea.

1850
01:09:36.520 --> 01:09:38.400
Rather than having to work for a living,

1851
01:09:38.400 --> 01:09:39.480
at the minimum,

1852
01:09:39.480 --> 01:09:41.520
you get paid an amount of money that means

1853
01:09:41.520 --> 01:09:42.840
you can buy the goods and services

1854
01:09:42.840 --> 01:09:45.080
that are necessary to stay alive.

1855
01:09:45.080 --> 01:09:47.320
You don't necessarily prosper,

1856
01:09:47.320 --> 01:09:49.160
but you get enough to survive.

1857
01:09:49.160 --> 01:09:50.760
And so that's the idea of you being...

1858
01:09:50.760 --> 01:09:51.840
I know at the moment to survive,

1859
01:09:51.840 --> 01:09:53.040
you're going to have a job.

1860
01:09:53.040 --> 01:09:56.800
Unlike that guy who mentioned his working at three jobs right now,

1861
01:09:56.800 --> 01:09:57.920
if he got a UBI,

1862
01:09:57.920 --> 01:10:00.280
he wouldn't have to work at those three jobs.

1863
01:10:00.280 --> 01:10:01.720
He might work at one,

1864
01:10:01.720 --> 01:10:04.840
or he might actually consider his own business possibilities

1865
01:10:04.840 --> 01:10:05.880
in that situation.

1866
01:10:05.880 --> 01:10:10.560
So I think universal basic income is a necessity

1867
01:10:10.560 --> 01:10:14.360
given what robotics and AI can do to employment.

1868
01:10:14.360 --> 01:10:16.360
Every time I've tried to improve something in my life,

1869
01:10:16.360 --> 01:10:18.840
like my businesses, my health, my relationships,

1870
01:10:18.840 --> 01:10:20.440
I've noticed that the biggest shifts have come

1871
01:10:20.440 --> 01:10:22.440
from being better informed.

1872
01:10:22.440 --> 01:10:23.440
And when it comes to our health,

1873
01:10:23.440 --> 01:10:25.320
most of us know very, very little.

1874
01:10:25.320 --> 01:10:28.160
So when our team was approached about partnering with function health,

1875
01:10:28.160 --> 01:10:29.960
it felt very much aligned.

1876
01:10:29.960 --> 01:10:31.440
Their team has developed a way of giving you

1877
01:10:31.440 --> 01:10:33.960
a full 360 degree view of your health,

1878
01:10:33.960 --> 01:10:35.560
many of the things that are going on in your body

1879
01:10:35.560 --> 01:10:37.320
in the form of different tests.

1880
01:10:37.320 --> 01:10:38.760
You do one blood draw,

1881
01:10:38.760 --> 01:10:42.560
and it gives you access to over 160 lab results,

1882
01:10:42.560 --> 01:10:44.920
hormones, heart health, inflammation,

1883
01:10:44.920 --> 01:10:46.760
stress toxins, the whole picture.

1884
01:10:46.760 --> 01:10:48.960
I use it and serve many of my team members.

1885
01:10:48.960 --> 01:10:50.480
You sign up and you schedule tests,

1886
01:10:50.480 --> 01:10:51.320
and once you're done,

1887
01:10:51.320 --> 01:10:53.600
you get a little report like the one I have here.

1888
01:10:53.600 --> 01:10:56.400
I can see my in-range results, my out-of-range results,

1889
01:10:56.400 --> 01:10:58.080
and there's a little AI function too.

1890
01:10:58.080 --> 01:11:01.000
So if I have any questions about my out-of-range results,

1891
01:11:01.000 --> 01:11:03.600
I can just go in there and ask it any question I want.

1892
01:11:03.600 --> 01:11:04.920
And these tests are backed by doctors

1893
01:11:04.920 --> 01:11:06.440
and thousands of hours of research.

1894
01:11:06.440 --> 01:11:09.240
It's $365 for a yearly membership.

1895
01:11:09.240 --> 01:11:12.440
Go to functionhealth.com slash D-O-A-C

1896
01:11:12.440 --> 01:11:17.400
and use the code D-O-A-C-25 for $25 off your membership.

1897
01:11:17.400 --> 01:11:19.560
This is something that I've made for you.

1898
01:11:19.560 --> 01:11:22.160
I've realised that the Diavisio audience are strivers,

1899
01:11:22.160 --> 01:11:24.000
whether it's in business or health,

1900
01:11:24.000 --> 01:11:26.200
we all have big goals that we want to accomplish.

1901
01:11:26.200 --> 01:11:28.400
And one of the things I've learnt is that

1902
01:11:28.400 --> 01:11:30.880
when you aim at the big, big, big goal,

1903
01:11:30.880 --> 01:11:34.720
it can feel incredibly psychologically uncomfortable

1904
01:11:34.720 --> 01:11:36.440
because it's kind of like being stood at the foot

1905
01:11:36.440 --> 01:11:38.320
of Mount Everest and looking upwards.

1906
01:11:38.320 --> 01:11:41.240
The way to accomplish your goals is by breaking them down

1907
01:11:41.240 --> 01:11:43.280
into tiny, small steps,

1908
01:11:43.280 --> 01:11:45.160
and we call this an R team the 1%.

1909
01:11:45.160 --> 01:11:48.040
And actually, this philosophy is highly responsible

1910
01:11:48.040 --> 01:11:49.400
for much of our success here.

1911
01:11:49.400 --> 01:11:51.920
So what we've done so that you at home

1912
01:11:51.920 --> 01:11:54.120
can accomplish any big goal that you have

1913
01:11:54.120 --> 01:11:56.840
is we've made these 1% diaries.

1914
01:11:56.840 --> 01:11:59.400
And we've released these last year and they all sold out.

1915
01:11:59.400 --> 01:12:02.320
So I asked my team over and over again to bring the diaries back

1916
01:12:02.320 --> 01:12:04.040
but also to introduce some new colours

1917
01:12:04.040 --> 01:12:05.680
and to make some minor tweaks to the diaries.

1918
01:12:05.680 --> 01:12:10.200
So now we have a better range for you.

1919
01:12:10.200 --> 01:12:12.120
So if you have a big goal in mind

1920
01:12:12.120 --> 01:12:15.480
and you need a framework and a process and some motivation

1921
01:12:15.480 --> 01:12:17.680
that I highly recommend you get one of these diaries

1922
01:12:17.680 --> 01:12:20.000
before they all sell out once again.

1923
01:12:20.000 --> 01:12:22.960
And you can get yours at the diary.com.

1924
01:12:22.960 --> 01:12:23.800
And if you want the link,

1925
01:12:23.800 --> 01:12:25.760
the link is in the description below.

1926
01:12:25.760 --> 01:12:28.680
And you think up to 50% of working glass jobs

1927
01:12:28.680 --> 01:12:31.000
could be wiped out because of AI and robotics.

1928
01:12:31.000 --> 01:12:31.680
Yeah.

1929
01:12:31.680 --> 01:12:34.440
I mean, that's been a prediction from the leaders

1930
01:12:34.440 --> 01:12:36.480
of some of the biggest companies in AI.

1931
01:12:36.480 --> 01:12:39.600
I had the leader of Anthropic recently say the same thing.

1932
01:12:39.600 --> 01:12:41.880
They think 50% of jobs could be wiped out.

1933
01:12:41.880 --> 01:12:43.520
I think the shocking thing that we've talked a lot about

1934
01:12:43.520 --> 01:12:44.680
in the show is just,

1935
01:12:44.680 --> 01:12:46.160
you know, there's been other sort of economic

1936
01:12:46.160 --> 01:12:48.000
or industrial revolutions in the past

1937
01:12:48.000 --> 01:12:50.240
that have caused for job displacement.

1938
01:12:50.240 --> 01:12:51.000
Yeah.

1939
01:12:51.000 --> 01:12:53.280
But none, I would argue at this speed.

1940
01:12:53.280 --> 01:12:55.720
No, and none that can replace virtually everything.

1941
01:12:55.720 --> 01:12:59.480
I see, there's a classic story I read back when I was

1942
01:12:59.480 --> 01:13:02.360
talking about the global financial crisis

1943
01:13:02.360 --> 01:13:03.920
came out of the New York Times article

1944
01:13:03.920 --> 01:13:06.320
where they went to interview workers

1945
01:13:06.320 --> 01:13:08.360
in an air conditioning factory.

1946
01:13:08.360 --> 01:13:09.640
And there was one woman they found

1947
01:13:09.640 --> 01:13:12.560
that his job at was to place a thermocouple

1948
01:13:12.560 --> 01:13:15.880
inside the air conditioning units as they went past.

1949
01:13:15.880 --> 01:13:18.440
So there's 3,000 of these going past her a day.

1950
01:13:18.440 --> 01:13:20.840
She's just placing one of these thermocouples

1951
01:13:20.840 --> 01:13:23.120
where it needs to go inside the circuitry

1952
01:13:23.120 --> 01:13:25.160
of the air conditioning unit.

1953
01:13:25.160 --> 01:13:26.160
And she said,

1954
01:13:26.160 --> 01:13:27.400
you don't have to love your jobs

1955
01:13:27.400 --> 01:13:28.720
long as a Pajou money.

1956
01:13:28.720 --> 01:13:30.240
There was a totally boring job.

1957
01:13:30.240 --> 01:13:31.520
That's all she's doing.

1958
01:13:31.520 --> 01:13:33.240
The thing is the reason she got that job was

1959
01:13:33.240 --> 01:13:35.360
she couldn't make a machine to replace her

1960
01:13:35.360 --> 01:13:37.040
because the air conditioning units

1961
01:13:37.040 --> 01:13:40.000
don't necessarily end up precisely at the same point

1962
01:13:40.000 --> 01:13:42.520
to make a machine that would do that is really difficult.

1963
01:13:42.640 --> 01:13:44.640
Now if you train a robot on it,

1964
01:13:44.640 --> 01:13:47.560
the robot perception can ultimately get to the point

1965
01:13:47.560 --> 01:13:50.280
where the robot can place that piece inside there,

1966
01:13:50.280 --> 01:13:52.760
that particular unskilled job disappears.

1967
01:13:52.760 --> 01:13:54.800
So people who work in jobs like that

1968
01:13:54.800 --> 01:13:56.960
no longer have a possibility of getting a job.

1969
01:13:56.960 --> 01:13:58.920
I think even, you know, anthropic release

1970
01:13:58.920 --> 01:14:01.560
to report anthropic of the makers of Claude,

1971
01:14:01.560 --> 01:14:04.800
they released a report saying that entry-level positions,

1972
01:14:04.800 --> 01:14:06.880
they're seeing a 13% decline already

1973
01:14:06.880 --> 01:14:08.400
in people getting those entry-level jobs.

1974
01:14:08.400 --> 01:14:09.720
And actually as an employer,

1975
01:14:09.720 --> 01:14:11.280
someone that spends literally all last night

1976
01:14:11.280 --> 01:14:13.560
I was looking through our recruitment inboxes

1977
01:14:13.560 --> 01:14:15.760
at candidates and talent.

1978
01:14:15.760 --> 01:14:17.680
I have noticed myself changing.

1979
01:14:17.680 --> 01:14:22.680
I've noticed that people that I would have given roles

1980
01:14:22.680 --> 01:14:25.560
to maybe six months ago,

1981
01:14:25.560 --> 01:14:27.640
I now have to think long and hard

1982
01:14:27.640 --> 01:14:29.800
about whether there's gonna be technology

1983
01:14:29.800 --> 01:14:32.400
that can do those exact roles instead.

1984
01:14:32.400 --> 01:14:33.920
And it was really shocking thing I was saying

1985
01:14:33.920 --> 01:14:35.720
to the team last night at like 1 a.m. in the office.

1986
01:14:35.720 --> 01:14:38.520
I was like, this is a prime example of a candidate.

1987
01:14:38.520 --> 01:14:40.120
I was looking at this particular candidate

1988
01:14:40.120 --> 01:14:42.760
that six months ago, I would have bitten their hand off.

1989
01:14:42.760 --> 01:14:46.080
But now, I have to pause

1990
01:14:46.080 --> 01:14:48.400
because my innovation team in the corner of the office,

1991
01:14:48.400 --> 01:14:52.480
they're able to do that now with these AI agents instead.

1992
01:14:52.480 --> 01:14:54.800
And so I am, you know, you hear a lot

1993
01:14:54.800 --> 01:14:57.040
about the theoretical impact of AI.

1994
01:14:57.040 --> 01:14:59.280
But you're actually making the decision yourself.

1995
01:14:59.280 --> 01:15:00.960
And then you get theory, it's theory,

1996
01:15:00.960 --> 01:15:02.280
it's this thing on my Twitter feed,

1997
01:15:02.280 --> 01:15:03.600
like blah, blah, blah, whatever.

1998
01:15:03.600 --> 01:15:06.000
You hear on a podcast, you give blah, blah, blah, whatever.

1999
01:15:06.000 --> 01:15:07.960
And then you find yourself, actually,

2000
01:15:07.960 --> 01:15:09.200
behaving that way.

2001
01:15:09.200 --> 01:15:10.680
Your behavior is changing and you're going,

2002
01:15:10.680 --> 01:15:14.920
oh, it's very hard to know the types of people

2003
01:15:14.920 --> 01:15:16.560
to hire into our company.

2004
01:15:16.560 --> 01:15:18.640
And I've kind of almost segmented them into these two groups

2005
01:15:18.640 --> 01:15:21.600
where you've got people that have very deep expertise.

2006
01:15:21.600 --> 01:15:22.760
I'd say it's three groups.

2007
01:15:22.760 --> 01:15:24.360
People that have very, very deep expertise

2008
01:15:24.360 --> 01:15:26.600
on a particular thing, you know, like my CFO.

2009
01:15:26.600 --> 01:15:31.040
Group number two, I'd say, are people that are AI proficient.

2010
01:15:31.040 --> 01:15:32.280
Who can actually handle this stuff

2011
01:15:32.280 --> 01:15:34.040
and be the people who manage the agents?

2012
01:15:34.040 --> 01:15:36.360
Yes, and they can redesign our workflows

2013
01:15:36.360 --> 01:15:37.920
across every department in the company

2014
01:15:37.920 --> 01:15:41.680
to be agentic about AI agents.

2015
01:15:41.680 --> 01:15:42.680
That's kind of like the wedges.

2016
01:15:42.680 --> 01:15:44.160
So agentic workflows.

2017
01:15:44.160 --> 01:15:46.000
And then the third group of people

2018
01:15:46.000 --> 01:15:48.440
are people who have skills that are highly beneficial,

2019
01:15:48.440 --> 01:15:50.360
human-to-human in real life.

2020
01:15:50.360 --> 01:15:52.240
So like human-to-human salespeople,

2021
01:15:52.240 --> 01:15:53.840
that deal with relationships.

2022
01:15:53.840 --> 01:15:54.840
And they're very good at it.

2023
01:15:54.840 --> 01:15:55.680
They're very good at it.

2024
01:15:55.680 --> 01:15:58.280
Because there are still a type of sale

2025
01:15:58.280 --> 01:16:01.520
where people want to meet the person, shake their hand,

2026
01:16:01.520 --> 01:16:03.840
and say, okay, you're responsible for this deal.

2027
01:16:03.840 --> 01:16:05.400
We're still in a situation where people don't want agents

2028
01:16:05.400 --> 01:16:06.240
to do that.

2029
01:16:06.240 --> 01:16:08.480
Like the three groups, what I didn't say

2030
01:16:08.480 --> 01:16:12.680
is young people who have just come out of university,

2031
01:16:12.680 --> 01:16:14.160
maybe you don't know anything about agents.

2032
01:16:14.160 --> 01:16:16.440
They don't have the deep expertise yet.

2033
01:16:16.440 --> 01:16:17.480
And when you look at the data,

2034
01:16:17.480 --> 01:16:19.360
we'll throw some of the data up on the screen.

2035
01:16:19.360 --> 01:16:22.040
It appears that these sort of entry-level,

2036
01:16:22.040 --> 01:16:25.160
white-collar jobs are the ones that are...

2037
01:16:25.160 --> 01:16:26.160
Right now, for real.

2038
01:16:26.160 --> 01:16:27.000
Yeah.

2039
01:16:27.000 --> 01:16:27.840
Some of these investment companies

2040
01:16:27.840 --> 01:16:30.440
would hire like three or four hundred analysts

2041
01:16:30.440 --> 01:16:32.920
to look at companies and make decisions.

2042
01:16:32.920 --> 01:16:36.000
That is one example of a role that's very at risk now.

2043
01:16:36.040 --> 01:16:37.400
We've got an investment fund.

2044
01:16:37.400 --> 01:16:39.320
We need one analyst, Molly.

2045
01:16:39.320 --> 01:16:41.720
Six months ago, we were interviewing more analysts.

2046
01:16:41.720 --> 01:16:43.320
We now realize that we just need Molly

2047
01:16:43.320 --> 01:16:44.840
and we need to give Molly AI.

2048
01:16:44.840 --> 01:16:45.680
Yeah.

2049
01:16:45.680 --> 01:16:46.760
And she can set up, I think Molly said to me yesterday

2050
01:16:46.760 --> 01:16:47.760
when I left for the office.

2051
01:16:47.760 --> 01:16:49.200
I mean, she left the office at midnight.

2052
01:16:49.200 --> 01:16:52.680
She's now set up three agents, these era agents,

2053
01:16:52.680 --> 01:16:54.160
as her team.

2054
01:16:54.160 --> 01:16:55.280
Those would have been three people.

2055
01:16:55.280 --> 01:16:56.640
Well, I saw a demo of that.

2056
01:16:56.640 --> 01:16:59.080
Like I've developed a software package called Ravel,

2057
01:16:59.080 --> 01:17:00.840
which I've got one program for.

2058
01:17:00.840 --> 01:17:02.880
And I teach an online course as well.

2059
01:17:02.880 --> 01:17:05.360
And I give Ravel as part of that online course.

2060
01:17:05.360 --> 01:17:07.720
And one of the members of the course

2061
01:17:07.720 --> 01:17:10.800
said he's using an AI to build Ravel models.

2062
01:17:10.800 --> 01:17:14.080
And he's also using an AI to write code behind Ravel.

2063
01:17:14.080 --> 01:17:16.400
And he gave a demo that's a couple of days ago.

2064
01:17:16.400 --> 01:17:19.560
And I watched it happen on screen

2065
01:17:19.560 --> 01:17:22.680
as he built a model, a simulation system.

2066
01:17:22.680 --> 01:17:25.120
And he was messy on one stage,

2067
01:17:25.120 --> 01:17:27.120
but it produced the correct mathematics.

2068
01:17:27.120 --> 01:17:28.680
So he's showing you can actually,

2069
01:17:28.680 --> 01:17:31.800
he's trying to tell me that we should get my main program

2070
01:17:31.800 --> 01:17:34.720
to learn to do the whole thing.

2071
01:17:34.720 --> 01:17:36.440
Now, my main programmer has said,

2072
01:17:36.440 --> 01:17:39.520
look, there's things that I can do that an AI cannot do.

2073
01:17:39.520 --> 01:17:41.920
He's one of your hardly gifted people.

2074
01:17:41.920 --> 01:17:43.600
And he said, it wouldn't be worth my while

2075
01:17:43.600 --> 01:17:45.840
to have me telling an AI what to do

2076
01:17:45.840 --> 01:17:48.880
because what I was in terms of my own initiative,

2077
01:17:48.880 --> 01:17:50.720
I can't, I just sort of balance out.

2078
01:17:50.720 --> 01:17:52.040
It's really a, okay.

2079
01:17:52.040 --> 01:17:53.680
But he has a junior programmer.

2080
01:17:53.680 --> 01:17:55.520
Then the junior programmer would be one

2081
01:17:55.520 --> 01:17:57.160
who's trained to drive the AI.

2082
01:17:57.160 --> 01:17:58.520
I do think programmers are fine.

2083
01:17:58.520 --> 01:18:00.000
Actually, there were some stats that I saw in the day

2084
01:18:00.000 --> 01:18:02.320
that showed there's been this huge demand

2085
01:18:02.320 --> 01:18:04.000
and people trying to hire programmers.

2086
01:18:04.000 --> 01:18:06.160
It's interesting because you hear stats from Spotify.

2087
01:18:06.160 --> 01:18:08.080
Spotify saying, we haven't written a human line

2088
01:18:08.080 --> 01:18:09.600
of code since December.

2089
01:18:09.600 --> 01:18:10.760
And I'm very good friends with the guys at Spotify.

2090
01:18:10.760 --> 01:18:11.920
I was actually with the CEO of the other day,

2091
01:18:11.920 --> 01:18:13.440
a couple of weeks ago in Austin.

2092
01:18:13.440 --> 01:18:16.000
And you hear that and I did check that with them.

2093
01:18:16.000 --> 01:18:17.240
That's true.

2094
01:18:17.240 --> 01:18:19.960
So you assume that that means we don't need programmers anymore.

2095
01:18:19.960 --> 01:18:22.080
But you think about like Geven's Paradox

2096
01:18:22.080 --> 01:18:23.600
when something becomes, you know,

2097
01:18:23.600 --> 01:18:25.400
Geven's Paradox is the old analogy.

2098
01:18:25.400 --> 01:18:26.640
And I would say you use more of it.

2099
01:18:26.640 --> 01:18:27.480
Yeah.

2100
01:18:27.480 --> 01:18:28.680
So like when Cole became cheaper,

2101
01:18:28.680 --> 01:18:31.040
people were worried that maybe the Cole industry

2102
01:18:31.040 --> 01:18:32.840
was out of business or trains, whatever.

2103
01:18:32.840 --> 01:18:34.120
But actually what ended up happening

2104
01:18:34.120 --> 01:18:35.880
is people just drove more trains

2105
01:18:35.880 --> 01:18:38.240
and they used them for other things like transport.

2106
01:18:38.240 --> 01:18:39.760
And the same applies, I think, for AI,

2107
01:18:39.760 --> 01:18:42.920
when creating technology becomes easier,

2108
01:18:42.920 --> 01:18:45.280
every company starts using more technology.

2109
01:18:45.280 --> 01:18:49.000
So media companies, lawyers, you name the company,

2110
01:18:49.000 --> 01:18:51.440
executive assistants, they all become coders.

2111
01:18:51.440 --> 01:18:54.200
And actually the demand for highly effort, really,

2112
01:18:54.200 --> 01:18:57.480
anyone who knows how to code a program,

2113
01:18:57.480 --> 01:18:58.840
we're seeing it, it's exploding.

2114
01:18:58.840 --> 01:19:00.120
Yeah.

2115
01:19:00.120 --> 01:19:02.160
But I just think the job disruption

2116
01:19:02.160 --> 01:19:04.240
in the near some for most people is going to be pretty.

2117
01:19:04.240 --> 01:19:05.080
Yeah.

2118
01:19:05.080 --> 01:19:08.040
I mean, there's ways in which AI and robotics

2119
01:19:08.040 --> 01:19:13.280
should be welcomed because it means the possibility exists

2120
01:19:13.280 --> 01:19:16.000
and it's only a possibility that we can no longer have

2121
01:19:16.000 --> 01:19:18.760
to be exploited to get an income.

2122
01:19:18.760 --> 01:19:19.760
Because if you look at it over there,

2123
01:19:19.760 --> 01:19:22.040
the Marxist attitude towards capitalism

2124
01:19:22.040 --> 01:19:25.720
as a capitalist exploit, the workers, okay?

2125
01:19:25.720 --> 01:19:28.440
The real world is we've been exploiting energy,

2126
01:19:28.440 --> 01:19:31.640
mutually, both labor and capital exploits energy.

2127
01:19:31.640 --> 01:19:34.080
We could have a future where we don't have to work

2128
01:19:34.080 --> 01:19:36.000
for a living and therefore you could do what you want

2129
01:19:36.000 --> 01:19:38.680
to do for a living, at the Star Trek future.

2130
01:19:38.680 --> 01:19:41.480
That's the possibility that it promises.

2131
01:19:41.480 --> 01:19:45.600
But at the same time, it could actually eliminate the jobs

2132
01:19:45.600 --> 01:19:48.160
that people currently rely upon.

2133
01:19:48.160 --> 01:19:50.960
And what I fear is we have two possibilities.

2134
01:19:50.960 --> 01:19:53.560
We have a future where Star Trek's high future,

2135
01:19:53.560 --> 01:19:55.920
where you have replicators that make the goods

2136
01:19:55.920 --> 01:20:00.640
and we consume and we all live with the energy abundant life.

2137
01:20:00.640 --> 01:20:04.320
Or the Hunger Games, where there's one little elite

2138
01:20:04.320 --> 01:20:07.240
that has all the robots and lives extremely well

2139
01:20:07.240 --> 01:20:10.560
and we tolerate and oppress the vast majority

2140
01:20:10.560 --> 01:20:13.600
and they end up, you know, Hunger Games entertainment.

2141
01:20:13.600 --> 01:20:16.560
Those are the two possibilities we face.

2142
01:20:16.560 --> 01:20:18.120
I do think the costs of goods and services

2143
01:20:18.120 --> 01:20:19.920
will come down which is great.

2144
01:20:19.920 --> 01:20:22.440
I think robotics, you know, if Elon is right

2145
01:20:22.440 --> 01:20:24.240
and I often say with Elon, like his timelines

2146
01:20:24.240 --> 01:20:27.560
are not always accurate but he does tend to deliver magic.

2147
01:20:27.560 --> 01:20:30.720
He ultimately delivers but he always over promises

2148
01:20:30.720 --> 01:20:33.080
and delivers later than he plans.

2149
01:20:33.080 --> 01:20:35.240
And if he's right about when he says

2150
01:20:35.240 --> 01:20:37.000
there's going to be more humanoid robots,

2151
01:20:37.000 --> 01:20:40.800
his optimist robots than humans and he says also

2152
01:20:40.800 --> 01:20:43.000
in his predictions that there's going to be no need

2153
01:20:43.000 --> 01:20:45.000
to study to be a surgeon because the robots are going

2154
01:20:45.000 --> 01:20:47.560
to be so much more advanced and better

2155
01:20:47.560 --> 01:20:49.280
than any living surgeon.

2156
01:20:49.280 --> 01:20:52.000
That would imply that surgery and other sort

2157
01:20:52.000 --> 01:20:54.000
of medical diagnoses and procedures

2158
01:20:54.000 --> 01:20:56.160
are going to be incredibly cheap, incredibly quick.

2159
01:20:56.160 --> 01:20:57.520
Great, how do you pay for them?

2160
01:20:57.520 --> 01:20:59.120
That's the next question.

2161
01:20:59.120 --> 01:21:01.640
Yeah, so yeah, how do you pay for them

2162
01:21:01.640 --> 01:21:02.920
and do people want to, you know,

2163
01:21:02.920 --> 01:21:05.200
there's also the physical requirements.

2164
01:21:05.200 --> 01:21:08.600
I mean, the amount of copper inside a robot,

2165
01:21:08.600 --> 01:21:12.000
you're talking, you know, several kilos per robot.

2166
01:21:13.000 --> 01:21:15.360
Do we have enough to produce eight billion of them?

2167
01:21:15.360 --> 01:21:17.640
And maybe, you know, surgeons do much more than just

2168
01:21:17.640 --> 01:21:18.440
operates.

2169
01:21:18.440 --> 01:21:20.440
Yeah, there's a human element to the medical profession

2170
01:21:20.440 --> 01:21:21.760
which I think is sometimes unappreciated.

2171
01:21:21.760 --> 01:21:23.840
Like I would, I don't know if I'm quite ready

2172
01:21:23.840 --> 01:21:25.160
to go talk to a robot about my health yet.

2173
01:21:25.200 --> 01:21:26.200
Maybe I'll adjust.

2174
01:21:26.200 --> 01:21:28.000
I wanted to come back to something you actually said earlier.

2175
01:21:28.000 --> 01:21:29.520
You talked about Bitcoin briefly.

2176
01:21:29.520 --> 01:21:30.360
Yeah.

2177
01:21:30.360 --> 01:21:32.200
I've heard you say that you think Bitcoin's going to zero.

2178
01:21:32.200 --> 01:21:33.040
Yeah.

2179
01:21:33.040 --> 01:21:34.040
Okay, this is worrying.

2180
01:21:34.040 --> 01:21:35.240
I think I have some Bitcoin.

2181
01:21:35.240 --> 01:21:36.480
Ha ha ha.

2182
01:21:36.480 --> 01:21:37.480
You're an economist.

2183
01:21:37.480 --> 01:21:39.200
You're saying that Bitcoin is going to zero?

2184
01:21:39.200 --> 01:21:40.040
Why?

2185
01:21:40.040 --> 01:21:43.120
Because, ultimately, because of its reliance upon energy.

2186
01:21:43.120 --> 01:21:44.480
I mean, I, you know, you know,

2187
01:21:44.480 --> 01:21:46.680
do you know Max, Max Karser and Stacey Herbert,

2188
01:21:46.680 --> 01:21:47.560
if you met them at all?

2189
01:21:47.560 --> 01:21:48.400
No.

2190
01:21:48.400 --> 01:21:50.160
They were sort of the original proselytizers

2191
01:21:50.160 --> 01:21:52.880
for good Bitcoin and they're now living in,

2192
01:21:52.880 --> 01:21:56.520
I think El Salvador, which has adopted Bitcoin

2193
01:21:56.520 --> 01:21:58.360
as a form of currency.

2194
01:21:58.360 --> 01:21:59.920
When they told me about Bitcoin,

2195
01:21:59.920 --> 01:22:02.040
I could have bought it for a pound of Bitcoin,

2196
01:22:02.040 --> 01:22:03.720
which would have been, I would have been a bloody,

2197
01:22:03.720 --> 01:22:05.560
maybe wealthier than you if I'd done that.

2198
01:22:05.560 --> 01:22:07.320
The reason I didn't as they explained it,

2199
01:22:07.320 --> 01:22:10.560
the way that the public ledger has kept safe

2200
01:22:10.560 --> 01:22:13.600
is that it takes too much energy to break it.

2201
01:22:13.600 --> 01:22:16.080
So each transaction requires 10 minutes

2202
01:22:16.080 --> 01:22:19.120
of computer processing time globally,

2203
01:22:19.120 --> 01:22:20.120
but the looks of it,

2204
01:22:20.120 --> 01:22:22.840
to actually create an extra Bitcoin.

2205
01:22:22.840 --> 01:22:24.480
And that means it's too expensive

2206
01:22:24.480 --> 01:22:26.840
for somebody to try to break the ledger.

2207
01:22:26.840 --> 01:22:30.640
That means it's got a huge requirement for energy use.

2208
01:22:30.640 --> 01:22:33.440
And I believe,

2209
01:22:33.440 --> 01:22:36.040
knowing what I know from climate scientists,

2210
01:22:36.040 --> 01:22:37.480
that at some point we're going to realize

2211
01:22:37.480 --> 01:22:39.800
we're using far too much energy on the planet.

2212
01:22:39.800 --> 01:22:41.880
We've got to cut the energy consumption

2213
01:22:41.880 --> 01:22:43.680
and the two easy things to cut out

2214
01:22:43.680 --> 01:22:45.920
to reduce energy consumption.

2215
01:22:45.920 --> 01:22:48.240
Cryptocurrency is an international travel.

2216
01:22:48.240 --> 01:22:49.480
But when you sing that, you know,

2217
01:22:49.480 --> 01:22:52.520
nuclear energy is becoming vogue again.

2218
01:22:52.520 --> 01:22:54.640
And they're talking a lot, you know, about,

2219
01:22:54.640 --> 01:22:57.120
it's the amount of time it takes to build that stuff.

2220
01:22:57.120 --> 01:22:59.640
I mean, China's building nuclear power stations

2221
01:22:59.640 --> 01:23:02.240
at a hell of a rate and much, much cheaper

2222
01:23:02.240 --> 01:23:04.080
or cheaper than America is doing.

2223
01:23:04.080 --> 01:23:05.200
So let's become a big,

2224
01:23:05.200 --> 01:23:06.040
got topic of conversation.

2225
01:23:06.040 --> 01:23:09.040
Yeah, again, there's a guy called Simon Machau.

2226
01:23:09.040 --> 01:23:11.360
I might recommend you get in touch with as well

2227
01:23:11.360 --> 01:23:13.600
and Simon is an engineer who claims

2228
01:23:13.600 --> 01:23:17.480
that we simply don't have the physical minerals necessary

2229
01:23:17.480 --> 01:23:22.200
to support a completely solar and wind-based energy system.

2230
01:23:22.200 --> 01:23:26.160
He's got people who criticise his analysis, definitely.

2231
01:23:26.160 --> 01:23:30.480
But we still are using far more physical resources

2232
01:23:30.480 --> 01:23:32.800
than we're aware of at the moment on the planet.

2233
01:23:32.800 --> 01:23:36.800
And the availability of various critical elements

2234
01:23:36.800 --> 01:23:39.120
that we need for the system we have right now,

2235
01:23:39.120 --> 01:23:43.200
it's much less abundant than we would like it to be.

2236
01:23:43.200 --> 01:23:46.160
So a lot of these things about, you know, robotics taken over,

2237
01:23:46.160 --> 01:23:47.840
do we have the minerals for it?

2238
01:23:47.840 --> 01:23:50.000
Solar power, do we have the minerals?

2239
01:23:50.000 --> 01:23:53.600
The answer is, is not, yes, okay?

2240
01:23:53.600 --> 01:23:55.280
It's sometimes the answer is no.

2241
01:23:55.280 --> 01:23:57.280
Other times it's dubious.

2242
01:23:57.280 --> 01:23:59.640
But I think that energy requirement alone is a problem.

2243
01:23:59.640 --> 01:24:02.000
You're saying that we're going to have to cut back

2244
01:24:02.000 --> 01:24:03.640
on our energy consumption, yeah.

2245
01:24:03.640 --> 01:24:04.960
But I mean, the direction of travel

2246
01:24:04.960 --> 01:24:07.440
has been we've been able to produce more and more and more energy.

2247
01:24:07.440 --> 01:24:09.680
And I'm thinking into the environment.

2248
01:24:09.680 --> 01:24:13.240
The problem about the use of energy is it's happening

2249
01:24:13.240 --> 01:24:14.800
on a planet, okay?

2250
01:24:14.800 --> 01:24:19.000
Can the biosphere cope with the waste that we jump into it

2251
01:24:19.000 --> 01:24:21.000
as a result of using that energy?

2252
01:24:21.000 --> 01:24:22.480
And that is something which economists

2253
01:24:22.480 --> 01:24:25.560
are completely stupid on, beyond stupid.

2254
01:24:25.560 --> 01:24:28.960
They've trivialized the dangers of the amount of resources

2255
01:24:28.960 --> 01:24:31.120
we use, the amount of energy we use.

2256
01:24:31.120 --> 01:24:33.520
So I don't think that energy future is possible

2257
01:24:33.520 --> 01:24:35.560
on this biosphere at the moment.

2258
01:24:35.560 --> 01:24:39.120
It's possible in the future if we get off the biosphere.

2259
01:24:39.120 --> 01:24:41.040
So in that sense, I'm even more of a space cadet

2260
01:24:41.040 --> 01:24:42.480
than Elon Musk is.

2261
01:24:42.480 --> 01:24:45.520
I think we have to plan to take production off planet.

2262
01:24:45.520 --> 01:24:47.840
But while we're constrained on the biosphere,

2263
01:24:47.840 --> 01:24:49.920
the biosphere's constraints will stop us using

2264
01:24:49.920 --> 01:24:52.840
as much energy as we wish to use.

2265
01:24:52.840 --> 01:24:55.080
What are your closing statements on this whole situation

2266
01:24:55.080 --> 01:24:57.240
with the war and Iran and everything that's going on

2267
01:24:57.240 --> 01:24:59.160
from a geopolitical perspective?

2268
01:24:59.160 --> 01:25:01.880
Basically, as our system is far more fragile

2269
01:25:01.880 --> 01:25:04.200
than we've convinced ourselves that it is.

2270
01:25:04.200 --> 01:25:08.200
And we can make observations about potential futures,

2271
01:25:08.200 --> 01:25:11.280
which presumably robustness we don't have.

2272
01:25:11.280 --> 01:25:14.080
And if that robustness is destroyed,

2273
01:25:14.080 --> 01:25:17.600
either by military conflict or by overextending

2274
01:25:17.600 --> 01:25:19.840
what we put into the biosphere,

2275
01:25:19.840 --> 01:25:22.920
then we can follow what's called the Seneca cliff.

2276
01:25:22.920 --> 01:25:25.320
We can go from an abundant future to a collapse.

2277
01:25:25.320 --> 01:25:28.400
And what would you say the people at home should be doing

2278
01:25:28.400 --> 01:25:32.400
to course correct the path that you think we're on?

2279
01:25:32.400 --> 01:25:35.160
Stop electing fools.

2280
01:25:35.160 --> 01:25:37.320
electing Trump was an enormous mistake.

2281
01:25:37.320 --> 01:25:39.720
We've got called politicians

2282
01:25:39.720 --> 01:25:43.760
who follow what's called neoliberal political philosophies.

2283
01:25:43.760 --> 01:25:45.560
They're what put us in this problem.

2284
01:25:45.560 --> 01:25:46.400
It hasn't worked.

2285
01:25:46.400 --> 01:25:50.040
We need to reverse back to having a human oriented

2286
01:25:50.040 --> 01:25:53.800
and physically realistic view of how the economy

2287
01:25:53.800 --> 01:25:56.200
managed should be managed and how the biosphere

2288
01:25:56.200 --> 01:25:57.040
should be managed.

2289
01:25:57.040 --> 01:25:58.920
We have to take care of our home.

2290
01:25:58.920 --> 01:26:01.800
And in an essential sense, we're destroying our home.

2291
01:26:01.800 --> 01:26:04.360
And thinking we can keep on doing that indefinitely.

2292
01:26:04.360 --> 01:26:05.400
We can't.

2293
01:26:05.400 --> 01:26:07.720
Our home is planet Earth.

2294
01:26:07.720 --> 01:26:10.480
planet Earth has got physical restraints.

2295
01:26:10.480 --> 01:26:12.120
We haven't respected them.

2296
01:26:12.120 --> 01:26:15.120
Planet Earth will tell us what it thinks of that this century.

2297
01:26:15.120 --> 01:26:17.440
And which leaders do you think we should be electing?

2298
01:26:17.440 --> 01:26:18.480
Do you think we should be electing?

2299
01:26:18.480 --> 01:26:21.640
I think even the leaders that solve us a mistake.

2300
01:26:21.640 --> 01:26:25.720
Because what we then do is end up getting...

2301
01:26:25.720 --> 01:26:28.120
We panned it in narcissists.

2302
01:26:28.120 --> 01:26:31.640
We panned it to people who believe they can solve all our problems.

2303
01:26:31.640 --> 01:26:35.240
We end up with megalomaniacs making decisions.

2304
01:26:35.280 --> 01:26:39.040
If you look back at where Athanian democracy came from,

2305
01:26:39.040 --> 01:26:42.040
Athanian democracy didn't use elections.

2306
01:26:42.040 --> 01:26:45.480
It used a process of like random number generators

2307
01:26:45.480 --> 01:26:49.360
to select intelligent people to fulfill essential roles

2308
01:26:49.360 --> 01:26:50.800
in those societies.

2309
01:26:50.800 --> 01:26:54.040
And they weren't even people you got to know by name

2310
01:26:54.040 --> 01:26:55.080
in that sense.

2311
01:26:55.080 --> 01:26:55.920
We know Trump here.

2312
01:26:55.920 --> 01:26:56.840
We know Starma here.

2313
01:26:56.840 --> 01:26:59.240
We have Albanese over here.

2314
01:26:59.240 --> 01:27:02.600
We end up getting narcissists and megalomaniacs

2315
01:27:02.640 --> 01:27:06.400
and they're the last people you need to make decisions.

2316
01:27:06.400 --> 01:27:08.800
When you're thinking about your own money, as an economist,

2317
01:27:08.800 --> 01:27:10.800
what are you doing to protect your savings?

2318
01:27:10.800 --> 01:27:11.640
I'm not doing much.

2319
01:27:11.640 --> 01:27:17.120
I mean, I've been a crusader for reforming economic theory

2320
01:27:17.120 --> 01:27:18.320
for my whole life.

2321
01:27:18.320 --> 01:27:21.160
I've sort of neglected this side of things.

2322
01:27:21.160 --> 01:27:24.480
To my detriment, I've got to say.

2323
01:27:24.480 --> 01:27:28.680
But I really am focused on what's sustainable for everybody

2324
01:27:28.680 --> 01:27:31.160
rather than what I can make as my own cut.

2325
01:27:31.160 --> 01:27:34.120
And I don't think we've got a sustainable economy at the moment.

2326
01:27:34.120 --> 01:27:37.400
We have a philosophy of economics which leads to breakdowns.

2327
01:27:37.400 --> 01:27:39.520
I'm asking that because I've got so many friends and listeners

2328
01:27:39.520 --> 01:27:41.720
that ask me often, like, should I be buying a house right now?

2329
01:27:41.720 --> 01:27:43.640
Do you think I should invest in gold?

2330
01:27:43.640 --> 01:27:45.440
Do you think I should be saving my money?

2331
01:27:45.440 --> 01:27:47.920
Should I be, I don't know, investing in technology companies?

2332
01:27:47.920 --> 01:27:48.440
Yeah.

2333
01:27:48.440 --> 01:27:50.560
And I'm wondering if you had a perspective for them?

2334
01:27:50.560 --> 01:27:51.080
Not on that.

2335
01:27:51.080 --> 01:27:53.520
No, look, I've really left that area alone.

2336
01:27:53.520 --> 01:27:55.440
I'm actually looking at the overall system

2337
01:27:55.440 --> 01:27:58.000
and saying, how do we make the system sustainable

2338
01:27:58.000 --> 01:27:59.840
so that people can live within it?

2339
01:27:59.840 --> 01:28:02.360
And what we've got is an unsustainable system.

2340
01:28:02.360 --> 01:28:04.040
And you're asking me how do people's

2341
01:28:04.040 --> 01:28:07.440
survive within an unsustainable system answer as they don't?

2342
01:28:07.440 --> 01:28:09.640
We always think we can do something at the individual level

2343
01:28:09.640 --> 01:28:12.560
to cope with what's happening in the system around us.

2344
01:28:12.560 --> 01:28:14.920
That only works if the system around us is stable.

2345
01:28:14.920 --> 01:28:16.680
What is a better system, man?

2346
01:28:16.680 --> 01:28:21.520
I think what China has done is a better direction.

2347
01:28:21.520 --> 01:28:25.440
They have a collective focus as well as an individual focus.

2348
01:28:25.440 --> 01:28:26.680
What's the system, Clam?

2349
01:28:26.680 --> 01:28:28.000
It's called communist.

2350
01:28:28.000 --> 01:28:30.600
So you think communism is better than capitalism?

2351
01:28:30.600 --> 01:28:35.600
I think the system which reflects the need for a cohesive society,

2352
01:28:35.600 --> 01:28:38.120
as well as individual gain is needed.

2353
01:28:38.120 --> 01:28:41.200
And the system in China is closer to that

2354
01:28:41.200 --> 01:28:42.720
than the system in America.

2355
01:28:42.720 --> 01:28:44.800
In China, listen, I don't know a ton about this,

2356
01:28:44.800 --> 01:28:47.520
but they have a leader who stays in power.

2357
01:28:47.520 --> 01:28:49.760
And that's why that's the potential weakness.

2358
01:28:49.760 --> 01:28:52.280
And suppresses the people's decision-making,

2359
01:28:52.280 --> 01:28:53.720
entrepreneurialism.

2360
01:28:53.720 --> 01:28:56.640
Equally, you've got a system to get into the communist party.

2361
01:28:56.640 --> 01:29:00.600
You've got to be educated to get in.

2362
01:29:00.600 --> 01:29:03.800
And you have to perform to some extent

2363
01:29:03.800 --> 01:29:06.440
in the region at which you begin your role.

2364
01:29:06.440 --> 01:29:08.840
But you're not saying you think the West should adopt communism, are you?

2365
01:29:08.840 --> 01:29:10.720
No, I'm saying there is West should adopt a system

2366
01:29:10.720 --> 01:29:14.480
which reflects the need for a cohesive society.

2367
01:29:14.480 --> 01:29:15.760
Is that socialism?

2368
01:29:15.760 --> 01:29:17.080
Socialism is closer to it.

2369
01:29:17.080 --> 01:29:19.680
I mean, the words are all tainted.

2370
01:29:19.680 --> 01:29:23.560
OK, if you go back, do you eat Cadbury's chocolate?

2371
01:29:23.560 --> 01:29:24.440
I try not to.

2372
01:29:24.440 --> 01:29:25.440
You have Aventure.

2373
01:29:25.440 --> 01:29:28.000
Well, of course, it was a socialist enterprise.

2374
01:29:28.000 --> 01:29:30.640
It was formed as a belief we'd have to...

2375
01:29:30.640 --> 01:29:33.400
One of the good workers is the best possible situation

2376
01:29:33.400 --> 01:29:35.520
while also selling a profitable product.

2377
01:29:35.520 --> 01:29:38.080
Mondragon in Spain is another cooperative,

2378
01:29:38.080 --> 01:29:41.000
side of my Catholic priest of all things.

2379
01:29:41.000 --> 01:29:43.280
We tend to be very binary in the West.

2380
01:29:43.280 --> 01:29:47.400
We say you need to have competition or you have cooperation.

2381
01:29:47.400 --> 01:29:49.000
We need to be more like the East

2382
01:29:49.000 --> 01:29:51.040
in the sense of the under-rearing and ag.

2383
01:29:51.040 --> 01:29:54.600
You have to have both cooperation and competition.

2384
01:29:54.640 --> 01:29:56.800
And so that view is the closest thing is socialism.

2385
01:29:56.800 --> 01:29:57.960
The closest is socialism.

2386
01:29:57.960 --> 01:30:00.440
And what China has done that better than Russia.

2387
01:30:00.440 --> 01:30:02.840
You go back to the USSR.

2388
01:30:02.840 --> 01:30:03.960
That was...

2389
01:30:03.960 --> 01:30:06.680
They were disastrous in terms of product development.

2390
01:30:06.680 --> 01:30:09.440
China has been extremely successful on that front.

2391
01:30:09.440 --> 01:30:12.040
They've learned from the mistakes of being too centralised

2392
01:30:12.040 --> 01:30:13.960
and too top-down in Russia

2393
01:30:13.960 --> 01:30:17.360
to have both the top-down and the bottom-up dynamic going on.

2394
01:30:17.360 --> 01:30:18.760
What's wrong with capitalism?

2395
01:30:18.760 --> 01:30:20.760
And capitalism is what the UK and the US

2396
01:30:20.760 --> 01:30:22.640
have adopted as that sort of economic problem.

2397
01:30:22.640 --> 01:30:25.880
It's seeing competition, absolutely willing,

2398
01:30:25.880 --> 01:30:27.680
and ignoring cooperation.

2399
01:30:27.680 --> 01:30:31.040
Now, the real successful society combines both.

2400
01:30:31.040 --> 01:30:33.840
You have cooperation, you also have competition.

2401
01:30:33.840 --> 01:30:36.440
And we're pushed at far too far in the competitive end

2402
01:30:36.440 --> 01:30:38.040
and not enough in the cooperative.

2403
01:30:38.040 --> 01:30:39.880
And what comes out of that as well

2404
01:30:39.880 --> 01:30:43.400
is this competitive tends to be short-term focus.

2405
01:30:43.400 --> 01:30:44.960
What can I make a profit out of?

2406
01:30:44.960 --> 01:30:47.720
In the time that the money that I've borrowed

2407
01:30:47.720 --> 01:30:50.520
is I'm going to be able to make more of a profit

2408
01:30:50.520 --> 01:30:53.480
than the interest I'm paying on the money I've created.

2409
01:30:53.480 --> 01:30:54.480
And if the interest...

2410
01:30:54.480 --> 01:30:56.800
If the longer it takes to get the repayment,

2411
01:30:56.800 --> 01:30:59.080
the less likely you are to make the investment.

2412
01:30:59.080 --> 01:31:01.640
So what you get is a focus upon short-term

2413
01:31:01.640 --> 01:31:03.320
with just a market system.

2414
01:31:03.320 --> 01:31:04.480
Whereas with the long-term,

2415
01:31:04.480 --> 01:31:07.000
you say, what's going to last for 100 years?

2416
01:31:07.000 --> 01:31:08.680
And like, and what that means is

2417
01:31:08.680 --> 01:31:11.080
you build the infrastructure for the long-term

2418
01:31:11.080 --> 01:31:14.080
while you allow competition to occur in the short-term.

2419
01:31:14.080 --> 01:31:15.160
It's getting the balance right.

2420
01:31:15.160 --> 01:31:17.840
We've got the balance extremely wrong.

2421
01:31:17.840 --> 01:31:19.480
Professor Steve.

2422
01:31:19.480 --> 01:31:20.320
Thank you.

2423
01:31:20.320 --> 01:31:21.920
I highly recommend people go check out

2424
01:31:21.920 --> 01:31:23.800
our YouTube channel where you make videos

2425
01:31:23.800 --> 01:31:25.360
all the time about what's going on in the world,

2426
01:31:25.360 --> 01:31:27.120
you give your opinion on economic issues,

2427
01:31:27.120 --> 01:31:28.600
political issues, they ran war.

2428
01:31:28.600 --> 01:31:29.520
So if people are listening

2429
01:31:29.520 --> 01:31:31.880
and they want to learn more from Professor Steve,

2430
01:31:31.880 --> 01:31:33.160
then look down below

2431
01:31:33.160 --> 01:31:36.880
and you should see his YouTube channel linked next to our name

2432
01:31:36.880 --> 01:31:38.400
because we're going to try and collaborate on this post.

2433
01:31:38.400 --> 01:31:40.480
And I'll put you the link to your channel

2434
01:31:40.480 --> 01:31:41.480
in the description below for anyone

2435
01:31:41.480 --> 01:31:43.560
that wants to check you out and subscribe.

2436
01:31:43.560 --> 01:31:44.400
It's so fascinating.

2437
01:31:44.400 --> 01:31:46.560
I especially this stuff about around the raw materials

2438
01:31:46.560 --> 01:31:47.800
coming out the straight up on this.

2439
01:31:47.800 --> 01:31:49.280
I really had no idea.

2440
01:31:49.280 --> 01:31:51.040
It's just quite staggering to me

2441
01:31:51.040 --> 01:31:53.160
that we're so dependent on one region of the world.

2442
01:31:53.160 --> 01:31:56.000
I think from watching your videos over the last couple of weeks,

2443
01:31:56.000 --> 01:31:57.400
it's really made me understand

2444
01:31:57.400 --> 01:32:00.400
the unintended consequences of war generally,

2445
01:32:00.400 --> 01:32:02.920
but specifically this war in Iran.

2446
01:32:02.920 --> 01:32:04.440
So thank you for telling the lights on for me.

2447
01:32:04.440 --> 01:32:05.560
I really, really appreciate this.

2448
01:32:05.560 --> 01:32:07.840
And I hope we can meet again soon and have a conversation.

2449
01:32:07.840 --> 01:32:11.600
And hopefully, this all resolves itself

2450
01:32:11.600 --> 01:32:13.080
in a way that's good for everybody.

2451
01:32:13.080 --> 01:32:15.440
I'm having my 73rd birthday tomorrow.

2452
01:32:15.440 --> 01:32:17.080
I have my head on 74th as well,

2453
01:32:17.080 --> 01:32:19.640
but I think there's a question mark over that now.

2454
01:32:19.640 --> 01:32:23.720
Well, I did hear it was your birthday tomorrow.

2455
01:32:23.720 --> 01:32:26.120
I think the team have gotten you a little something.

2456
01:32:26.120 --> 01:32:26.800
OK.

2457
01:32:26.800 --> 01:32:27.800
You're just...

2458
01:32:27.800 --> 01:32:30.560
Happy birthday to you.

2459
01:32:30.560 --> 01:32:31.920
I'm embarrassed.

2460
01:32:31.920 --> 01:32:32.960
Happy birthday.

2461
01:32:32.960 --> 01:32:34.160
Oh, my God.

2462
01:32:34.160 --> 01:32:36.000
Happy birthday to you.

2463
01:32:36.000 --> 01:32:39.600
Happy birthday to you.

2464
01:32:39.600 --> 01:32:40.400
Oh, my God.

2465
01:32:40.400 --> 01:32:41.600
Thank you.

2466
01:32:41.600 --> 01:32:45.440
Happy birthday to you.

2467
01:32:45.440 --> 01:32:46.440
Holy hell.

2468
01:32:46.440 --> 01:32:47.440
I'm listening.

2469
01:32:47.440 --> 01:32:48.440
Thank you.

2470
01:32:48.440 --> 01:32:49.440
I blow the candles out.

2471
01:32:49.440 --> 01:32:50.440
Yes, you should.

2472
01:32:50.440 --> 01:32:51.440
OK.

2473
01:32:51.440 --> 01:32:52.440
You get a wish.

2474
01:32:52.440 --> 01:32:54.440
You blew them all out so you get a wish.

2475
01:32:54.440 --> 01:32:56.440
Well, I wish for peace in the Middle East.

2476
01:32:56.440 --> 01:32:57.440
OK.

2477
01:32:57.440 --> 01:32:59.440
That's probably the main thing to say about right now.

2478
01:32:59.440 --> 01:33:00.440
That is a gorgeous cake.

2479
01:33:00.440 --> 01:33:01.440
I have to say.

2480
01:33:01.440 --> 01:33:02.440
It's a marvelous cake.

2481
01:33:02.440 --> 01:33:04.440
It's not going to ruin her work, but it's a good thing.

2482
01:33:04.440 --> 01:33:05.440
There's better be eaten by the crew,

2483
01:33:05.440 --> 01:33:07.440
because I'm not going to eat all this myself.

2484
01:33:07.440 --> 01:33:08.440
OK.

2485
01:33:08.440 --> 01:33:10.440
You want to get out of an eye and start slicing up?

2486
01:33:10.440 --> 01:33:11.440
Oh, my God.

2487
01:33:11.440 --> 01:33:12.440
Thank you so much.

2488
01:33:12.440 --> 01:33:13.440
Thank you.

2489
01:33:15.440 --> 01:33:17.440
Thank you.