WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.031 --> 00:00:13.733 So, here's a question nobody asks. What do you do when one of your oldest friends is Toomas Hendrik Ilves, the former president of Estonia, the European Union nation? I'll tell you what you do. You call him. A lot. 2 00:00:14.392 --> 00:00:33.578 My name's Andy Valvur. I'm a comedian, American-born, now living in Europe, because, well, if you could, wouldn't you? I grew up in the US, hearing stories from my parents about a country that didn't exist, at least not on any map you could buy because the Soviets had wiped it out. 3 00:00:33.578 --> 00:00:57.541 I only had one buddy who understood. Toomas. His parents were also Estonian, also refugees, and Toomas and I grew up sharing the same traditions, same weird Estonian Saturday school, and same conviction that America and Europe were family. And for most of our lives, they were. The alliance held until it didn't. 4 00:00:57.541 --> 00:01:26.718 Right now, the relationship that defined the free world for 80 years is coming apart. And Europe is scrambling to figure out who it is and what comes next. Toomas and I talk about this stuff. And it seems selfish to keep these conversations to myself. So here it is, the Continental Rift, with former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves and me, Andy Valvur. Serious politics, questionable hosts. 5 00:01:30.346 --> 00:01:44.032 Hey, Toomas, you look actually rather cooler than I feel right now just because you're further north than I am. Well, I'm actually sitting in a greenhouse, but... It's in solidarity. 6 00:01:45.483 --> 00:02:04.315 In solidarity, though, it's just too cold outside. Oh, man. Well, let's start with the weather because the heat wave is the most successful integration project in EU history. It has crossed every border instantly and has required absolutely no parliamentary approval. The heat wave is very federal, isn't it? 7 00:02:04.315 --> 00:02:27.198 Well, at least for you people in the south here up in Estonia, it hasn't really reached us. And that is why we don't understand this new anti-European line from the Twitter world about Europeans liking air conditioning. I mean, we have natural air conditioning. 8 00:02:27.198 --> 00:02:57.185 Well, apparently, Americans have three air conditioners for every two children. Europe just has one old guy who says, hey, close the shutters. In fact, 90% of Americans have air conditioning. In Europe, it's some 20%. In the UK, it's no longer part of the EU, but it's 5%. Germany is 3%. There is a cultural divide in terms of how hot people are. 9 00:02:57.185 --> 00:03:25.973 You know, for years, we've accused politicians of producing hot air. And apparently this week, the atmosphere decided to compete. It has broken records all across Europe. All across Europe. I mean, there are concrete reasons for all of this. We have different kinds of architecture, older buildings, thicker walls. Our electricity prices are much higher. On the other hand, people go like, well, it's like a couple of days a year and not every year. Why do we need to do this? 10 00:03:25.973 --> 00:03:55.133 But however, Marine Le Pen has announced a grand plan for air conditioning. And that this is, well, we'll talk about this later, but while the hardcore European right is turning away from America, here when it comes to the EU-US cultural war, she has definitely come down on the side of the United States. 11 00:03:55.133 --> 00:04:14.422 So this is the Continental Rift. Today is June 26th. It's a Friday. If you've been watching the show, thank you for watching. And you know, we kind of usually start out with something called EUBS, but we're toying with the format. We're going to probably just do some little small items that caught our eye during the week. First of all, 12 00:04:14.422 --> 00:04:41.287 Kaja Kallas, who is the EU foreign minister, for lack of a better term. But she apparently has three jobs. The Lisbon Treaty fused three jobs into one, chairing the Foreign Minister's Council, vice president of the commission, and head of the new EEAS diplomatic service. And they put it into one impossible job with no deputies. And apparently every holder has come up short, right? Well... 13 00:04:42.907 --> 00:05:04.220 Well, I'll put it differently. I would say that Kaja Kallas is the first person who actually knows something about foreign policy. It was held that position. The 20 years prior to that, we had people who were put there, A, because as often happens, since the position doesn't matter, we'll send someone there who we don't want to have around. Oh, it's like a Trump ambassador. 14 00:05:04.220 --> 00:05:21.314 Well, no, no. I mean, they pay for that. These people, they think it's an honor and then they go somewhere and do nothing about something about which they know nothing. And now suddenly we have this person who actually is one who knows more about foreign security policy than almost anyone else. 15 00:05:21.314 --> 00:05:44.382 around in senior leadership positions. So that's the problem. But really, the kind of triple hatting job is what has caused the problem, because you can't run three different things at once. I mean, this is where you come back to the Kissinger old joke, who do I call if I want to call Europe? Well, Kaja Kallas is having to answer all of the phones. 16 00:05:44.382 --> 00:06:00.548 And so when she answers the phone, she has to put you on hold and check with 27 people before she can give you an answer. Precisely, right. Yes. Well, that's where we are. This is another area where we need serious treaty change. I mean, the position that Kaja Kallas has today was created... 17 00:06:00.548 --> 00:06:21.693 So 22, 23 years ago, so that Europe could play at being a country, but not really be one, because the prime ministers of the individual EU countries didn't want anyone to have that role. And who was always playing the big game? Well, it was Sarkozy and it was Merkel and Trump. 18 00:06:21.693 --> 00:06:44.440 Later on, it was Macron. But when the person actually starts fulfilling that role of being a real foreign minister, the governments and the prime ministers are getting upset, which is, hey, that's supposed to be what I want to do. And so it's this churn that we're in the middle of all the time. 19 00:06:44.440 --> 00:07:11.710 So it's kind of like a version of the fight between the states and the center. Yeah, in about 1850 in the United States, right? Yeah, Hamilton versus. Okay, anyway, let's move on to our next little topic, which is the Poland versus Ukraine. Fight. Well, we just say it's fight. We don't know where it's. I mean, this is sort of developed. I'll let you describe it because it's delicate. Okay. 20 00:07:11.710 --> 00:07:34.829 Well, it's a developing story. Basically, President Zelensky of Ukraine named the military unit after the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, or UPA. And this was a major force fighting Soviet rule all the way up into the 50s. I mean, they had pitched tank battles with the NKVD because the... 21 00:07:34.829 --> 00:07:52.531 Ukrainians hid their tanks in huge hay piles. I mean, that's why they were considered heroes and are considered heroes in Ukraine. The problem is before that, they did some pretty nasty things to thousands of Poles. 22 00:07:52.531 --> 00:08:14.755 So the Polish view of the Ukrainian insurgent army is very different. And now when Zelensky named this new unit after the World War II era unit. Well, can he distinguish between the World War II era unit and the Cold War unit? Well, look, let's face it, he didn't think about all of the implications. 23 00:08:14.755 --> 00:08:42.042 But then President Nawrocki of Poland said he was rescinding the Order of Merit that he had given to Zelensky. Zelensky packed his up and sent FedEx to back to Poland. And then all of the other presidents sent theirs back out of solidarity. So this is just an escalating row. But basically what we need to do is... 24 00:08:42.042 --> 00:09:04.942 address these issues, but not in a way where we are politicizing them in the middle of a war. All this does, it just makes Moscow happy. There's not much to make Moscow happy these days. But I mean, overall, I mean, at some point, all European nations did awful things to each other in the past. I mean, you know, 25 00:09:04.942 --> 00:09:26.002 How long are you going to dwell on this? This is the whole idea of the European Union. What I would bring up, basically, is, look, given the relations between France and Germany between 1940 and 1945, and the fact that they could get over that already five years after the end of the war... 26 00:09:26.390 --> 00:09:55.094 is the singular accomplishment of the EU. I mean, it could not happen had the two not reconciled. Right. Carrying a grudge, et cetera. Grudges don't go away. I mean, people can't forget what was done to them and who did it. But nonetheless, this is the kind of thing where people say, okay, we're going to put this aside for now because we really want to move on. Right now, the middle of a war is not a place to actually do this. 27 00:09:55.094 --> 00:10:15.918 So it's kind of like firefighters arguing over who gets employee of the month while the building is still burning. Precisely. Yes. Okay. Next up is Hungary. You know, after the initial, ooh, this is going to be a whole new world, apparently it seems that Peter Magyar has stepped on the brakes. 28 00:10:15.918 --> 00:10:42.175 Yep. He got the cash and then he stepped on the brakes? Well, first of all, he resolved the issue of apparently, we don't know the details of the Ukrainian-Hungarian dispute that Orban exploited to block moving ahead on EU accession negotiations. But then he blocked further movement because he says, well, there are other issues. But... 29 00:10:42.175 --> 00:11:00.755 The issue here is that, wait a minute, maybe, I mean, the U.S. card's here, too. I mean, Magyar wants money back from Orbán's era, but he has not really moved yet on implementing the reforms that are necessary to, 30 00:11:00.755 --> 00:11:30.472 to repeal the things that Orban did. So, I mean, two can play this game. I mean, the same applies to the billions and billions that you, that Hungary wants because they too have not really completed the, the steps that there were to be taken. Okay. Well, we'll keep an eye on that. But now we have two main stories, which are kind of connected. Basically this show this week is all about divorce. Yeah. 31 00:11:30.978 --> 00:12:00.121 And one of which is Britain's divorce from Europe, which we're celebrating 10 years of. Well, I don't know. Commemorating, I think. Commemorating. Let's not. Let's not. And like most divorces, I mean, Brexit began with someone saying, well, you know, I need a little bit more freedom. 10 years later, everybody's arguing about assets. That's one way of putting it. But no, we're actually, we've done the asset part. It's more like the one half of the divorce saying, oh. 32 00:12:00.948 --> 00:12:27.982 It wasn't so bad after all. And the other side going, well, I've moved on. I have a new partner. And, well, too bad. So here we are. It was the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote. Right. Let's keep in mind that they- It's not the 10th anniversary of them leaving. It's just the vote. Right. But that was what basically led to- 33 00:12:27.982 --> 00:12:50.206 Everything that followed, including seven prime ministers in 10 years. I saw that someone had made this quip. Kate Ferguson. Seven prime ministers in 10 years. It's becoming unbearably hot. And Britain's actually doing rather well in football. In other words, we are becoming Italy. 34 00:12:51.758 --> 00:13:07.165 So, all right, let me ask you, what is first of all, what's the perspective of the EU on Brexit and what's your memories of Brexit? I mean, I remember that night when the vote came in. I mean, people were not expecting it to happen. I mean, it was a real shocker. 35 00:13:07.165 --> 00:13:28.445 Things were a little rough for the Europeans because this has never happened before and how do we deal with this? But it has turned out to be a really losing proposition for the UK. Its economy is 6% to 8% smaller than if it had stayed, according to analysis, and 36 00:13:28.445 --> 00:13:47.834 And the UK Treasury's own estimate that was that it would be smaller by 6 to 8 percent by 2030. They've been rather fast on that. Productivity is down. UK exports are down by 8 percent. 37 00:13:47.834 --> 00:14:17.281 to which the Trump tariffs were added. It's not going well. For a while there, London was the financial capital, maybe rivaling New York in terms of... Oh, very much so. Well, clearly it's taken ahead on that as well. If you're tied to one of the biggest economies in the world, the EU, and then you have a certain amount of clout. If you're just 65 million with your own currency that's tied to nothing, 38 00:14:17.281 --> 00:14:42.070 well, then your financial cloud is different. Well, the Brexit peoples said Britain was shackled to a corpse. That's not true. The EU these days is clearly not the corpse that they thought it would be. No, the EU is doing well. I saw a chart where certainly the bigger ones are doing well. Germany wasn't doing as well, but everybody else seemed to be doing well. 39 00:14:42.070 --> 00:15:06.353 No one in the world is doing well except for the United States and Iran, for different reasons. I mean, there's rising support for rejoining the EU in the UK, but the EU has moved on. And at the same time, for the UK to rejoin would mean taking on... 40 00:15:06.353 --> 00:15:28.814 A lot of things that it wouldn't like. First of all, it got an opt-out on the euro as a currency. There is none of that anymore. There are no opt-outs. Everyone will have to join eventually. And then there's the question of where are you in the queue? At this point, Britain would be behind Ukraine and Moldova. 41 00:15:28.814 --> 00:15:49.604 And the Balkans. And the Balkans. There you go. But I mean, last week, we mentioned the accession of countries like Ukraine and how that would change the EU. Brexit changed the EU and European politics, right? Dramatically. The amount of public support for the EU as a result of Brexit has gone way up. 42 00:15:49.604 --> 00:16:17.178 It would have been much harder to do many of the things the EU has done if the UK had been in the 750 billion next generation EU recovery fund, which is designed to basically gear up EU in digital matters. That would not have happened. I mean, there's a bit of schadenfreude there, let's admit it. But on the other hand, what we did lose was... 43 00:16:17.178 --> 00:16:42.035 And this we feel certainly in my country is that the UK is very anti-protectionist, which means that the single market in the EU reform slowed down. So the idea of unified capital markets, which is now coming slowly back, but painfully. And the smaller countries, especially in the north, actually counted on the UK as being kind of a counterweight market. 44 00:16:42.727 --> 00:17:09.676 to the Franco-German motor, as it were. It's not as if it was great that they left. However, I think the real effect is that Brexit killed the whole idea of all the other exits. There's no Frexit. Frexit means France leaving. It's like Brexit, British, exit, France, exit. Where I live in the south of France, I know several British people who actually voted 45 00:17:09.676 --> 00:17:39.038 for Brexit, and then turned around and went, what do you mean I can't stay here for more than 90 days? I was like, were you not paying attention? I flew from London to Bordeaux last month. And as a EU passport holder, I just slid right through. And there was a long queue of people waiting to go through passport control. I was so tempted to look back and go, so how's that Brexit working out for you now? 46 00:17:39.038 --> 00:17:45.873 to add insult to that injury, the polls are buying up 47 00:17:45.940 --> 00:18:12.316 the properties on the Costa del Sol, the sunny coast of southern Spain, because, well, they have money. They will be buying the houses and apartments that were sold by the Brits because of Brexit. And one politician who was anti-EU and is now positive is... 48 00:18:12.502 --> 00:18:41.341 Maloney, Georgia Maloney. I mean, right now there's a big right-wing divorce going on from Trump. I mean, last year, Europe's right wanted to be in Trump's selfie. And this year they're asking if Photoshop has a crop tool. You know, politics changes fast. I mean, last year standing next to Donald Trump won you votes. This year standing six feet away wins you votes. Maloney was the one far-right leader in the world. 49 00:18:41.408 --> 00:19:04.409 of a big country in Europe, Italy, a major power in Europe. And she was certainly one of Donald Trump's favorites. With the Iran war starting without informing everyone in NATO, everyone wakes up saying, what? And then on top of that, going after all these countries for not... 50 00:19:04.527 --> 00:19:33.755 going into the war that they had not been told about, but we covered that ground. Trump started lashing out. Then one of the persons he lashed out at was after the G7 meeting we covered last week in Evian, where he said, Georgia Maloney wanted to beg me for a selfie. And he felt sorry for her because she needs it for her polls. 51 00:19:33.755 --> 00:19:44.842 And so Maloney being a rather hot-tempered Italian woman was incensed 52 00:19:45.095 --> 00:20:07.707 posted a video calling it completely fabricated and snapped at the end. Fabricated? Donald Trump? I'm shocked. We snapped at Italy and I do not beg because Trump had said she had begged for this. Well, I mean, to show you where things are in the political climate here is that – 53 00:20:07.707 --> 00:20:28.801 While Maloney is not loved by the opposition, the entire political spectrum of Italy lined up behind her. The foreign minister, Tajani, who's a different party, canceled his trip to the U.S. to meet Rubio. The president of the country supports her. I mean, basically... 54 00:20:28.801 --> 00:20:54.788 Well, we don't have the poll numbers, so we don't know what kind of boost she got out of it. All of the right in Europe is like really stepping back from Trump at this point. Stepping back is polite. I think they're running as fast as they can. I mean, even Bardella, Jordan Bardella, who is the presumptive runner in France, very carefully distanced himself from Trump. Well, so did Marine Le Pen. Either way... 55 00:20:54.788 --> 00:21:10.972 They have really tempered their enthusiasm. And this is true, even Nigel Farage, to hark back to Brexit. And we see this across the board. Well, then in AfD and... 56 00:21:11.697 --> 00:21:40.486 In Germany is doing the same. Obviously, the Fratelli d'Italia is doing this. Maloney's party. I'll put it this way. For years, the hard right in Europe is saying, see, we have Donald Trump. He's our guy, and he's supporting us. And suddenly they realize that's not really possible because you never know what he's going to do. Mercurial is being polite. 57 00:21:40.672 --> 00:22:00.719 Well, we try to be polite here. We don't know how big an effect this has had. We have seen no polls. It won't come out any day, I guess, about what this big dust-up has done. So, well, that would be my question. 58 00:22:00.922 --> 00:22:28.023 What does this mean? Does the European right become less right? Does the European right now find its own European style of right? Well, we don't know what that right will mean. I mean, just last week, Maloney gave a speech giving a very kind of odd talk for a hard right leader saying, well, we need a stronger Europe. We need to do more together. That has been the 59 00:22:28.023 --> 00:22:36.798 opposite of the rhetoric that we've seen. But I think people are realizing that Europe as a unit 60 00:22:37.996 --> 00:23:07.493 We've got a very, very big footprint on the world stage. I mean, the whole classic, you know, a rising tide lifts all boats. I mean, we could see a more pro-European approach by these parties, but there are other problems. I mean, there is the, on the part of the French and the German, a kind of a bizarre love of Putin. Their hard right does not want Ukraine in the EU. But Maloney doesn't support what Putin did. No, no. What I'm saying is what you end up seeing is that, 61 00:23:07.493 --> 00:23:25.415 Instead of like, oh, we all want to leave the EU, it's that, no, we want to stay and make the EU stronger and we don't want to be weakened by some kind of Ukraine joining us. That's – Okay, okay. It's not clear where we're going, but that's the point of this podcast is that, I mean, this rift – 62 00:23:25.415 --> 00:23:54.710 between the US and Europe is leading to major changes in the way Europeans think of themselves across the board, but it is especially noticeable in what is happening to the right-wing parties that have to reimagine what they are standing for as a result of a Brexit, which showed that leaving the EU is kind of a bad idea economically, 63 00:23:54.710 --> 00:24:24.646 And secondly, Donald Trump saying that being close to the United States as an alternative to the European Union is not something you can rely on. And so we're going to see some big changes in the public rhetoric, I think. And we don't know where that's going to end. Well, that's why we're here. I mean, look at this developing because it can be kind of head spinning. 64 00:24:24.646 --> 00:24:54.160 When I read the news every day, I go, well, what is going on? I mean, what is a useful ploy, perhaps, for the GOP in the U.S., which is bashing Europe. I mean, they've been doing it since Donald Trump came into office. And yet they all want a vacation on the Riviera. It was not only that. I mean, basically, if you read the national security strategy, there's this line about we want to sort of develop more national governments. And, you know, the EU is a bad thing. And that's where we're going to support. 65 00:24:54.160 --> 00:25:09.162 the so-called patriotic forces in Europe. Well, it turns out what they're doing is- Patriarchal or patriotic? No, no, patriotic. No, but what they're doing is they're alienating- 66 00:25:09.162 --> 00:25:37.883 precisely the people that they want to use as a wedge in the EU, and not only alienating them, but making them more pro-European with these attacks on the Europeans. If I were in the United States in a policymaking position, I would be kind of scratching my head saying, I think this was a bad move. But, well, compared to Iran getting $300 billion for Iran, 67 00:25:38.761 --> 00:26:05.727 Maybe it's there've been bigger, bad moves. Anyway, on that note, I think we've covered the stuff that we wanted to cover this week. Toomas, always a pleasure. Thank you for your time and your insights. And we will do this again next week. Well, I hope you have a cooler week as well. I have to say my move out of solidarity, moving into a... 68 00:26:06.807 --> 00:26:30.348 into a greenhouse, hothouse that I'm in right now. I'm at the end of my rope. I want to go outside where it's a nice 22 degrees. Well, 22. Oh, man, I'm envious. Anyway, let me wrap this up. First of all, I want to thank everybody for tuning in. We know your time is valuable, and we appreciate you giving some of our time. 69 00:26:30.348 --> 00:26:53.348 This is The Continental Rift, a podcast about what's happening between the U.S. and Europe, and Europe's place in the world. Please consider subscribing or liking The Continental Rift. It helps those algorithms get the word out there. To support our work, you can find us at BuyMeACoffee, or you can email us. Send us a note. Tell us what you think to rift at freshlens.film. 70 00:26:53.348 --> 00:27:16.366 Continental Rift is hosted by Toomas Hendrik Ilves and me, Andy Valvur. Our executive producer is Fred Casella. It's edited by Conan Roberts, with music by the Estonian folk fusion group Paable, and animation and brand design by Roland Seer. The Continental Rift is a Fresh Lens production. All rights are reserved. We'll see you next week.