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you have that fallacy of people look at high performers

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and they see that they appear confident.

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And so they erroneously assume

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that the confidence preceded the high performance

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when it's actually the other way around.

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It's the high performance generates the confidence.

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There's other modern renditions of this too,

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that like certain techniques or whatever

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that get peddled in those circles, I think.

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And there's some interesting research

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around some of these as well.

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So we have things like affirmations, visualizations,

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power posing even too.

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So if we want to real quick just run through some of this research because it's kind of interesting, actually.

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Let's start with affirmations.

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Okay.

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So there's a study in 2009 that was the first to really seriously kind of test if affirmations work or not.

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And so they gathered these participants and had them repeat, I am a lovable person, every 15 seconds.

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And they had them do this 16 times, I guess.

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Okay.

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What happens is that the exact kind of people who need this, actually, it doesn't work for them.

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Right?

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Basically.

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So if you have already have kind of a low self-esteem and you repeat to yourself,

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I'm a lovable person.

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I can do this.

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I'm, I'm, I'm going to be okay.

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I'm, I'm awesome.

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While you have low self-esteem, it actually makes it worse.

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Right.

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Because you, you sit there and you're like, wow, I'm such a loser.

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I have to repeat

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to myself that I'm lovable over and over and over again, which just makes you feel worse.

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And then if you do feel good about yourself, you're like, wow, I don't really need to do

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this because I feel good about myself.

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Exactly what they found.

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It's just

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cognitive dissonance is all it is, right?

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If you have beliefs about yourself that you are,

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you're not a worthy person or whatever, and you're telling yourself, I am a worthy person,

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or I am lovable, whatever, all it's doing is highlighting that gap.

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And it creates that

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cognitive dissonance.

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And you have to resolve that cognitive dissonance in some way.

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And usually what

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it is, is making yourself feel worse.

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Your self has to be aligned in some way.

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You know, it has

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to be consistent.

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There's been some other studies around this.

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There's like a 2020 study that didn't

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quite replicate that, but they also just found no effect on it.

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So it's either no effect or a bad

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effect on this.

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If you are somebody who has a high level of like self-competence and self-efficacy

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and all of that, like your example, when you go and speak, right?

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Like you've done it before,

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you know, you can do it.

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You throw the tunes on, you say you're a rock star and it helps a little

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bit just to get you over the hump.

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That's fine because there's not a huge gap between that and

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what you've already done.

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There are techniques to pump up your emotional state in the short term,

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right so you list i listen to that song or norman minson peel like does his affirmations or whatever

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like the ending result of that is that it improves your mood very temporarily and once your mood is

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improved that can make you feel a little bit better about what you're about to do where things

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go amiss is this assumption that anything permanent is happening i've met a lot of people who swear by

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affirmations and and i've it's funny i've been on a number of podcasts where people have like come at

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me and they're like i do affirmations every morning like why why do you tell people they

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don't work and i'm like well hate to break it to you it gives them that little mood boost

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makes them feel better maybe you know at the beginning of the day for a minute five minutes

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and then they just kind of falsely think that that is carrying on through in a more permanent way

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throughout their lives when it's it's actually not the podcasters or whatever come at you they

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probably have a good track record of you know doing well and so telling themselves they're

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going to do well they're like oh yeah i'm gonna do well it's fine it works out and then they move

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on yeah like that's fine but if you're telling yourself i'm gonna do well and you're just a wreck

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no that's not gonna help you just telling yourself it's gonna work out is not going to help you

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okay clip that put it on repeat okay okay anyway anyway okay let's go on the next one a very

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related one though too is the visualizations right this is a big one you know vision boarding or

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whatever.

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There's this psychologist from NYU, Gabrielle Otigen, I think is how you say her

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name, has been testing this for like decades.

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And it's like really got into the weeds on this.

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Basically what she's found is that like positive visualization on its own, it's really interesting.

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It actually reduces the energy you want to put towards whatever goal.

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So if you're visualizing

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a goal you have, and you put a lot of like positive visualization of you attaining that goal,

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it reduces the the motivation you have for that goal it's like you've already consumed part of

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that goal you get a small hit of satisfaction right from so your motivation is decreased from

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yeah like your brain kind of almost treats it as like oh you've already got the goal so i don't

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need to be as motivated towards it why bother so why bother at that point right one of the studies

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she found like women who fantasize more positively about uh losing weight actually lose fewer pounds

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like they don't lose as much weight.

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Another one she did on hip replacement patients

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and those who have these rosy recovery like goals

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are like, oh no, I'm going to be fine by next week

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or whatever.

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They did worse.

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Students who fantasize about job offers,

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like, oh, I'm going to get this job offer.

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You know, I can see myself getting it and all that.

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They end up doing worse in their interviews

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and everything like that.

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Exam grades, all of this.

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She did this in all these different situations

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and found the same thing over and over again.

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So this is where we run into the manifestation crowd because you get a lot of people who are like, I manifested this, right?

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It's like, I dreamed about this and then I made it happen.

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When you do visualize something you want in your life, there's a usefulness in that it orients you towards, I guess, thinking more critically about how to attain that thing.

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You leverage your, your perceptual biases to like help you get it.

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But so maybe there's, there's like a, a fine line between simply like explicitly defining a goal for yourself and then like actively fantasizing, visualizing about it on a regular basis.

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She actually found kind of where that boundary is.

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Visualization isn't all bad, but the thing is, is that just like only visualizing the end goal, only visualizing having done the thing.

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That's what's back.

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Interesting.

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So visualizing the process of getting there.

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She calls it WOOP, W-O-O-P.

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First is the wish.

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Okay.

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This is something you want to attain.

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So that's the like the thing you want.

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Right.

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Then the outcome.

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So you do have to visualize the outcome, getting the outcome and all that.

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But then importantly, the next two, I think are the most important obstacle.

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visualize the obstacles that you're going to encounter along the way.

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Okay.

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And, and really

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see like, okay, this is probably going to come up.

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I'm it's kind of like that stoic negative

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visualization.

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Something wrong is going to happen.

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Right.

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And I need to be ready for it.

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And then the last one is to have actually create a plan around it.

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So it's a whole visualization

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arc that you can use, but it's not really a visualization necessarily.

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It's more engaging

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in a process.

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So most people just, they stop at, whoa, which is the wish and the wish and the

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outcome and the outcome and that's essentially just fantasizing whoa yeah whoa i wish it was

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woo because that would be so perfect but yeah the obstacle in the plan that like that's actually

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where the rubber meets the road that that's what generates i guess the momentum or the velocity

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towards the outcome that's a very active engagement with i don't even know if i would

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call that a visualization necessarily but i mean there's visualization elements to it but it's more

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just like a an approach to something because you're you're creating a plan you're envisioning

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the obstacles, you're getting ready for them.

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And it's just a lot more realistic than do you,

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do you visualize like outcomes you want in your life?

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Cause like I do, I, and it's funny,

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I don't do it intentionally.

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I just kind of like, I'll just daydream about stuff I want.

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No, I don't.

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I guess I don't really do a whole lot of that.

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Interesting.

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Take me through your

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process.

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I've always done this naturally.

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I've never did it.

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I remember when I read visualization

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stuff, I was like, well, yeah, sure.

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Whatever.

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You know, like it just seemed like very obvious

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and kind of dumb to me.

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Like if I have a certain goal or something, I will just think about not

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only the outcome, but like the process of attaining that goal.

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Right.

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So it's like,

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I just kind of will mentally rehearse what it will take to get there.

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And also like some of

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the benefits of having it, like how cool it will be if I, you know, I don't know, whatever.

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I actually have started doing this more recently.

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One of them, um, I was just talking with you about

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this earlier.

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I've been getting into running, uh, like longer distances and more endurance stuff.

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And I have a good friend who does like crazy endurance stuff and he's kind of taking me under his wing a little bit.

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I start, I guess I did start kind of doing this a little bit with that.

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Oh, that'd be so cool to do these like crazy trail runs.

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These guys are up in the mountains, you know, middle of nowhere and like you're running overnight and stuff like that.

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I'm like, oh, that'd be crazy.

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So there's kind of the wish and the outcome to crossing that finish line or whatever.

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But what I really started doing lately was more of the, okay, the obstacles, the training is rigorous.

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and so I have to like really plan for that so he got me signed up for like a coaching app and stuff

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like that from that you get a plan out of it too but the the obstacles I've really been thinking

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more around like almost like visualizing the the process yeah around it running by myself

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and the in the heat in the mountains or the the cold in the mountains even too I guess kind of

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when I visualize or fantasize about stuff yeah it is both the positive and the negative are present

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Which I guess it's worth noting that Ottengen's entire findings are essentially that visualization is only useful if you include the negative thoughts.

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Yeah, you have to be realistic about it.

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If you block the negative thoughts and you're just focused on the...

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As soon as they come in, those are going to wreck the fantasy.

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Yes.

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It's a rehearsal for action is what it is.

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It's not a rehearsal for like, oh, I'm going to sit back and just enjoy all this because that's what's the motivating part.

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It's not a rehearsal for being awesome.

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It's rehearsal for accomplishing things.

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Putting the work in.

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Yeah, putting work in.

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For sure.

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Yeah.

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Okay, okay.

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Last one that I'm going to cover this time.

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Power posing.

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Oh, yeah.

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Okay.

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I remember this.

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Have you ever tried this?

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No.

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We'll get into this.

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We'll get into this.

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Okay.

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So in 2010, again, not that long ago, a study comes up.

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I remember this TED Talk.

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It was massive.

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It was everywhere.

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It was one of the most viewed TED Talks.

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But what it was based on.

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Tens of millions of views.

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Yeah.

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What it was based on was this 2010 study they did.

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Okay.

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42 people.

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So already small size.

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Not many.

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As you see.

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Right.

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They had the high power pose and a low power pose.

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So basically, you know, the high power, like.

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Should we demonstrate?

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You should demonstrate this.

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Is this the high power pose?

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I don't know where you're sitting down.

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If it's very.

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Is this.

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Chest out, hands on the hip.

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Like that's the power pose, right?

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Wait, I got to suck my stomach in.

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Okay.

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Now I'm, now I'm confident.

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You look powerful, Mark.

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You look so powerful.

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I'm so confident right now.

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Their claim in this study, though, was that just doing that, that you would have measurable increases in certain hormones like raised testosterone, lower cortisol, which is a stress hormone, right?

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Not only that, but then they took more risks after this, too.

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So they had them perform tasks that involved some risk and the people who power posed would take more risks.

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That culminated in 2012 in this huge TED talk.

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And again, one of the most viewed TED talks out there.

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It was kind of just one of those fake it till you make it data points.

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Problem was it didn't replicate.

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In 2015, there was another set of researchers who did a pre-registered study of 200 people.

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They found no effect on testosterone, no effect on cortisol, no effect on risk taking.

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The only thing that survived was that people did report feeling a little bit more powerful, a little bit better, a little bit more confident in themselves.

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State pump.

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Just like before you go on stage, right?

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Same type of thing.

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This is not confidence, people.

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This is a momentary state pump.

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The lead researcher, I think the senior researcher on this in 2016, finally retracted.

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And she said, this was Dana Carney.

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She said that she doesn't believe that the power pose effects are real.

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She even walked through all the flaws in this study.

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Good credit on her.

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I'm sure she had a lot of pressure.

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Good for her.

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Good for her, though.

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Honestly, more researchers should do this.

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She noted the tiny sample.

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There was participants who dropped they didn't include in this.

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They had a whole bunch of measures that they took that they didn't report even to.

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So they were cherry picking big time out of this.

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And it was just this one small study and outlier effects that they saw.

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You know what this reminds me of?

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I remember back when I was like 20 years old, I read this, but there was a book, I think it was called The Book of Body Language.

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And it had all this research in it.

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Like I remember there was one study supposedly where people in an audience, if they cross their arms, they're less likely to agree with the lecturer or something.

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Whereas like people who like put their arms by their side and opened up their body were like more receptive to the information.

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Closed poses.

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Yeah.

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All of it turned out to be bullshit.

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And I actually think the lead researcher, I think it was a Dutch guy.

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It turned out he was just like making up a lot of data.

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All this is to say is that this sort of like nothing burger has been around for a long time.

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This is kind of pointed at as one of the poster childs of the replication crisis that happened in psychology that I think we're kind of starting to come out of a little bit like people were aware of it.

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The late 2000s, mid 2010s, there was just this whole like, oh, shit, we can't.

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Like nothing's replicated.

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And this was one of them.

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And it had a TED talk behind it, right?

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That blew up at everybody.

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I mean, people still probably watch it today and believe it.

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This was the poster child for the replication crisis.

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Affirmations.

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Bullshit.

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Yeah.

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Visualizations mixed bag.

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You need to visualize the obstacles and the problem solving.

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Which I would argue isn't really visualization.

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But anyway, yeah.

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News alert, everybody.

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Planning works.

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Power posing, body language, embodiment stuff.

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Right.

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Bullshit.

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Have you ever tried the power posing?

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I tried all this shit.

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Yeah.

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I tried all this shit.

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Yeah.

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I mean, I got really into all this stuff in my teens and in early 20s.

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I remember doing the whole thing, like looking at myself in the mirror and telling myself things.

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I felt ridiculous.

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I was like, this is so stupid, right?

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Like if I actually felt these things, I wouldn't have to look in the mirror and say them.

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You know, the visualization stuff, like I have a very active imagination and I visualize

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a lot of things very easily.

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So like I never understood that.

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And then the power posing thing, it's funny because I remember back when I was a day in

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relationships coach, a huge emphasis was put on body language.

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Body language, yeah, sure.

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And it was interesting because it was body language was, first of all, a huge component

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of just physical attractiveness is body language and posture and, you know, standing up tall.

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It was interesting because it's like when you do correct people's posture and body language,

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like you do, there is a noticeable kind of.

323
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Oh, there's a state change for sure.

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There's a little emotional pump that happens, right?

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And they do feel a little bit like, yeah, yeah, I'm, I got this, right?

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A useful question is like, is there anything from this that is salvageable from.

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Okay.

328
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Yeah.

329
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Let's call it the mainstream corpus of self-help advice.

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You've tried it all.

331
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So you tell me.

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The only person that I will like give a little bit of credit here is Tony.

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What most classic self-help people do is they just state pump you endlessly, right?

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Like you just go to one of these seminars or you read the secret and it's just like you are just getting bathed.

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You're getting showered in positive affirmation and just being like told that you are fucking amazing in the center of the universe for for hours.

336
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and that feels really good for a short period of time i think tony's a little bit more sophisticated

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in what he does he still does the state pumping like a lot of his methodology is really like if

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you look at what he does in his seminars it's like very driven by like state pumping people

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he's a little bit smarter and that he recognizes that people are a little bit more open and

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suggestible when they're in a good mood so like when you're feeling like shit when you haven't

341
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slept when you're cranky and you're angry you had a big fight with your mom or your sister or

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whatever like you don't want to listen to anybody's advice your focus is very narrow yeah you're like

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dude don't tell me right what my morning routine should be like fuck you right but like if you're

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in a great mood and you're just like vibing and you're having a great time and you're meeting all

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these cool people right and then you get hit with a piece of life advice of like hey you should try

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this like you're going to be much more receptive to that advice and so i think he uses it as a tool

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he's he still sells it as like we're going to make you confident we're going to make you feel

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good about yourself we're going to unleash the giant within right that's his whole that's his

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whole thing it is a means to an end in in his program at least so like so i'll give i'll give

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a like a half like i guess half credit there yeah i just think a lot most of this stuff is feel good

351
00:16:02.100 --> 00:16:05.800
bullshit what do you think about anything though like uh like limiting beliefs or anything like

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that.

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00:16:06.061 --> 00:16:10.080
I don't know if this is the same category or not, but you know, we just did the episode on

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change and I get, I think you could, you could kind of think of limiting beliefs as adaptations

355
00:16:15.601 --> 00:16:20.940
that we talked about in that episode where it's like a layer of your identity almost that you buy

356
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into.

357
00:16:21.382 --> 00:16:23.694
I don't know if that's a different category though, maybe.

358
00:16:23.956 --> 00:16:24.076
Yeah.

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We're going to talk about

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beliefs quite a bit in the next chapter.

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00:16:26.707 --> 00:16:30.520
I, I, I do think there is a lot more credit around the

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00:16:30.640 --> 00:16:35.860
belief stuff because you do beliefs really do create kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy right

363
00:16:36.221 --> 00:16:41.100
like that's further downstream and you're it takes some work to get to them and yeah it will and it

364
00:16:41.160 --> 00:16:45.960
is tricky right so i mean we will talk about this but like if you go back to the example of like me

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backstage about to go on you know talk in front of a bunch of people my belief about myself in that

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00:16:50.920 --> 00:16:57.580
moment and my ability to deliver a good talk matters a lot if i believe i'm not capable of

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delivering a good talk, I'm going to struggle and suffer a lot more than if I do believe

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I'm able to give a good talk.

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00:17:04.804 --> 00:17:10.279
This is where maybe a little bit of moderate delusional thinking can

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sometimes be beneficial.

371
00:17:12.327 --> 00:17:15.120
You're not going to change a belief with an affirmation necessarily.

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00:17:15.340 --> 00:17:19.500
That's what you're saying or a visualization or anything like that or a power pose.

373
00:17:19.661 --> 00:17:19.862
Yeah.

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00:17:20.103 --> 00:17:24.060
To sum up, everything we've been told about confidence from the affirmations,

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00:17:24.703 --> 00:17:28.760
the body language the positive thinking the rah-rah stuff it's essentially been built on a

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mistake which we call the peel fallacy which is this idea that you need to feel a certain way in

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order to perform a certain way and that is not the case not only is that not the case but it's also

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00:17:39.721 --> 00:17:45.800
not useful because you can't really just gin up confidence out of thin air ultimately confidence

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is built by evidence it's built by experience it's built by being in situations and coming out

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the other end okay and therefore knowing that you can handle other situations like that one

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in the future congratulations you made it to the end of this clip this is actually part of a larger

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podcast episode and you can get access to the full episode right here

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Thank you.
