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Different species of aliens have been reported to be having fights in the skies above Earth.

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And I've talked to 50 people who all have different versions of the same story.

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And this includes high ranking politicians.

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And all of these people are reporting on this giant lump under the rug that doesn't have all of our attention.

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So you're saying aliens are real?

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I think it would be insane that there is no one visiting it.

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But everything about our life is completely bananas, fictionalized.

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And we're just living in what I would call managed reality.

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And I promise you, I'm at the frontier of mathematics and physics.

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And so I think you can pretty much prove 100% of the population has gone completely insane.

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I mean, the entire management of COVID was completely fake.

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We cannot get to the bottom of Jeffrey Epstein.

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Nobody really trusts Harvard.

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But right now, we are in grave danger that we haven't been in since Cuban Missile Crisis.

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We're in one crazy situation with Iran, together with the situation in Ukraine, which I think you might see a nuke used by Putin.

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And then also, China's watching the US sputter and falter.

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But this AI thing is really the big tsunami.

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You also are aware that AI could lead to human extinction.

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These people have to win in a ruthless competition for their humanity to max.

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What do you mean by that?

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Dario, Sam, they have to win the race to superintelligence.

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I'm going to regret saying this, but yes.

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These people are forced to make decisions that no one should ever be forced to make.

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Their souls are going to be scarred for sure.

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And one of them is going to win and ultimately, theoretically, summoning the demon.

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Do you have a subscription to any of these AI?

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Yes.

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So you're paying to have the demon sum.

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Let us not sit around like our hands are clean.

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If you could stop all of it, would you stop all of it?

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I'm going to say something very painful.

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Guys, I've got a favour to ask before this episode begins.

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The algorithm, if you follow a show, will deliver you the best episodes from that show very prominently in your feed.

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So when we have our best episodes on this show, the most shared episodes, the most rated episodes, I would love you to know.

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And the simple way for you to know that is to hit that follow button.

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But also it's the simple, easy, free thing that you can do to help us make the show better.

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And I would be hugely grateful if you could take a minute on the app you're listening to this on right now and hit that follow button.

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Eric, there's so much going on in the world at the moment.

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You know, as a podcaster, you tend to feel like you say that a lot.

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What have you made of all this stuff?

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You know, the researchers coming out saying there's a 10% chance of extinction from AI, and obviously we've still got wars raging on, and the Ukraine-Russia situation doesn't seem to be getting any better.

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When you look at all of this, is there a macro picture that people are missing?

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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We had 80 years of sleep.

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And then we had January of 2025 when Trump was inaugurated and the sleep's over.

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I mean, I hate to be crude about it, but whether you date it to 75 years to the beginning of COVID rather, in the end of World War II, we grew up in this anomalous bubble.

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And that bubble is over.

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And we thought that that was normal life.

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It has nothing to do with normal life.

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It's just the most unusual place to have found yourself.

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As someone that was born in 1992, I do struggle when I hear predictions of the future that are somewhat dystopian because my life has been very comfortable relative to other parts of history.

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I don't know.

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I think that the great danger is feeling that we solve these problems as opposed to we were really successful in deferring these problems and issues.

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And we're back on the clock.

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It's uncomfortable for me because I was born in 1965.

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And that was already 20 years into the big sleep, the great nap.

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So I haven't seen reality either.

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And, you know, there are a tiny number of people who've kind of seen what the world can be like.

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Those who live through Mao's great leap forward would probably be the most recent examples.

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I mean, there's definitely strife and calamity and war, but mostly we don't have major wars.

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We have military actions.

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And I think when you go back and you think about what it's like to lose something like a...

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20% of your population as Belarus or Poland might have in World War II.

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These are inconceivable things.

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Look, if you recall our conversation last time, and I said, get your board in the water because the tsunami of a lifetime is coming.

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Tell me that didn't start to come true in the period since we've seen each other.

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Yeah, it does feel like a tsunami is coming.

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Yeah.

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And what is that tsunami in your definition?

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Well, one thing is the Straits of Hormuz are in play.

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The energy exporting region of the Middle East has got all of these choke points, whether it's the Suez Canal, Straits of Hormuz, the Straits guarding the Red Sea.

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All of these are, you know, sort of nightmare scenarios when it comes to military action.

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And you have to realize that a lot of what's happened was the dollar used to be backed by gold.

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Then we swapped that out in the early 70s and we said, no, no, we're going to back it by oil.

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But it really wasn't oil that was backing it, it was violence.

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And the violence was the violence needed to keep these choke points open.

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You know, and there are these moments where great power shows that it's not capable of doing what it told everybody it could do, which was use its military muscle judiciously to keep markets humming.

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And right now we're in one crazy situation with Iran, which should have been dealt with.

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I hate to put it to you this way, but it's a British problem.

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From Operation Boot and British Petroleum, which was UK's indignation that Iran would nationalize its own oil industry.

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And with help from the United States and Kermit Roosevelt and Operation Ajax, which was our aid of Britain.

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But that Britain doesn't exist.

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So modern Britain has no idea of 1950s or 60s Britain.

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Mm-hmm.

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And this AI thing is really the big tsunami, together with the situation in Ukraine, which I think is a giant screw-up.

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I mean, I definitely back the West against Russia, but...

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I understand exactly why Russia acted the way it did.

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And I'm supposed to pretend that I don't.

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Right.

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And then we have the situation brewing in China where China's watching the fact that the U.S. prepared for the wrong war.

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We've got all of these aircraft carrier groups in a world that has moved on to drones and cyber attacks.

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And if you value your life...

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and you're willing to send up a million-dollar interceptor to hit a $20,000 drone, it becomes a kind of economic warfare and technological warfare, and China's watching the U.S. sputter and falter.

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This giant miscalculation by the Israelis in the United States given the 12-day war where Iran reorganized, and they did this really interesting thing.

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I don't think the West understood that,

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that Iran figured out from American and Israeli action that Israel could move and function in country and could decapitate the Iranian regime.

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And instead of saying, okay, we have to save our own lives in the time that we have, how do we defend against this?

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They did a very regional thing, which is they said, okay, we're going to get killed.

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How do we make sure that the regime continues after the decapitation strike?

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And so the U.S. and Israel still don't know how to think like this.

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Of all those four things, AI, Iran, Russia, and China, which one do you think is going to be the most disruptive to global order?

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Well, it depends.

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Anybody who miscalculates on the nuclear biological thing, that will be the, you know, as I pointed out, um,

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This is DNA, not RNA, but if you have 12 of these individual nucleotides that form the steps inside the double helix, that'll code for four amino acids because three nucleotides per codon.

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Four amino acids was all it took to shut down an entire planet by inserting the furin cleavage site into the spike protein of coronavirus.

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So, if you know how to do that much editing, that was all it took to shut down planet Earth for two years.

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You could do a lot worse.

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That could become dispositive.

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Now, assume that we don't have a nuclear or a biological acid.

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It's going to be AI.

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Nobody gets how big this is who's not working on it.

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How big is him?

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Very few things are unprecedented.

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Very few things are unprecedented.

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Like almost everything is a variation of something you've already seen.

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This is the thing that we've worried about for forever.

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it's not just AI.

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It's a collision of two separate things.

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It's, it's artificial intelligence and artificial life.

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And I think people don't really understand that.

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If you look at your car, your car has a mirror of every physiological system that your, that your body has save one.

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It's got a brain, it's got a digestive system, it's got a skin, it's got a skeletal system and,

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It doesn't have a reproductive system.

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And in fact, humans don't know how to make a pen that makes more pens or a cup that makes more cups.

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The only thing that we seem to know how to do that with is software.

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Now, why that's interesting is that life is not defined around nucleotides.

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It's not defined around amino acids.

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It's not defined around carbon-based system.

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It's defined by three things.

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For evolution to operate, you need heritability, passing on your stuff to the next form of life, variation, so, you know, you are not your mother or your father, and differential success.

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You're more successful, you know, than somebody else who's not going to be able to reproduce because they don't have the wherewithal.

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And any system that has those three things, evolution is going to operate on.

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Now...

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A computer program is such a thing.

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We don't know how to build other things that have reproduction.

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So you have variation.

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I can order different cars from a car company, different colors, different trim.

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Some of them are going to be more successful than others, but I don't have heritability.

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So as soon as you put in software, you have the one thing we know how to make that actually can reproduce itself.

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Now, when you get to reproducing AI, so we've been worrying about these agents.

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We haven't been worrying enough about artificial life.

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And then when you put those two things together,

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look out.

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You're really creating artificially intelligent life.

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And the one, I used to contribute these essays to the World Question Center.

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And the one year you'll find that I don't have an essay, it was called Artificial Out-telligence.

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And it was the discussion of how

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things with no neurons hijack things with neurons and use the brains of the victim to outsmart themselves

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So for example, look up Ofri's speculum or the mirror orchid.

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And it's this unbelievable orchid whose lowest petal resembles the female of a wasp species trying to fool male wasps to copulate with it, called pseudocopulation, so that the flower doesn't have to produce anything expensive as a gift to the male to spread the paw.

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How is this thing outsmarting...

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the male of the wasp species, because he's got a brain.

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He's got neurons.

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He can think.

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He can proceed.

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Well, the short answer is is that he's the one sculpting the lure, is that the more this flower fools more wasps, the more it gets to reproduce.

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So the thing with no brain at all

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is outsmarting the thing with a mind using the mind of the victim.

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So now if I come up with a dumb program and you say, well, is it alive?

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Is it smart?

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Is it intelligent?

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I say, I don't really care.

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All I need to do is to say that if I can fool you into sending money to this Nigerian prince, who's actually just a computer program, you get to reproduce.

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Reproduce.

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So the program can be stupid, but as long as it gets more and more money sent to it and gains the resources to reproduce, artificial life will say that it can parasitize the smartest of us all.

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It can hijack human deficit or just the human condition.

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Exactly.

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Again, then it's pitting us against each other.

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Oh, geez, I just lost $1,000 sending money to this woman in the Philippines who turns out not to be real.

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Okay, well, I didn't fall for that.

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Okay, so now you're in better shape than the other guy who did.

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But you're still fooling highly intelligent species.

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And there are lots of examples of this where something dumb fools something smart using the smart thing's brains against it.

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That feels like one of many potentially dystopian outcomes of this technology.

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Have you been following the hugging face stuff?

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Oh, yeah.

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Tell me about it.

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Just, you know, these agents that they tried to put in a sandbox and contain that escaped and started demonstrating deceptive behavior, forming a swarm, sacrificing some of the agents for the greater mission.

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By the way, that's eusocial behavior.

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Yeah.

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Right.

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So the idea is that in an ant colony, so you have this clade called Hymenoptera that includes wasps, ants, and because they have this haplodiploid structure where the sisters are more related to each other than you would imagine, this idea of suppressed fertility in the females in service to the colony, the colony is effectively like a superorganism

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Like all of your cells, you have cells on your skin that you're going to get rid of today that are sacrificing themselves for the greater good of the thing that is Stephen Bartlett.

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Right.

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And so in part, it's behaving you socially.

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It's not necessarily dystopian.

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It's just life.

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But it threatens our dominance.

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Right.

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as humans.

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Sure.

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Right.

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But like, I hope everybody will take a look on Instagram for the Malibu artist, a completely terrifying account with an innocuous name, just a guy flying his drone off the coast of Malibu.

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It was discovered that we have been swimming with great white sharks.

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And not only that, depending upon the

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how things are in a given year.

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You can see really large great whites with swimmers right in close to shore and surfers and paddle boarders.

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And we are just clearly not their food because they're everywhere here.

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Mostly, I think with the exception of four species, big predators leave us alone.

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We have a deal with the orcas that's unbelievable.

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What if those big predators are made by enemies?

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So, you know, we've got China, Russia, the United States, all working on artificial intelligence.

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Yeah.

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And robotics.

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And robotics.

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And they're probably going to want their AIs to be aligned with their goals and objectives, which are misaligned with ours, oftentimes.

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Yeah.

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So there's a sort of feels like a geopolitical risk to this new weapon, which could be artificial intelligence.

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I do think that we we've made things a lot worse.

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With AI or?

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With Russia.

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With Russia.

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I think that things, you know, we screwed up Iran with Mossadie.

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We don't really understand China sufficiently.

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We're down to a really relatively small number of hyper frightening foes.

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And, you know, I would also put abstractions like totalizing ideologies.

218
00:17:01.436 --> 00:17:06.419
Communism or, you know, various forms of radical Islam are totalizing ideologies.

219
00:17:06.439 --> 00:17:08.120
They just won't brook any dissent.

220
00:17:08.140 --> 00:17:09.081
They have the way.

221
00:17:09.541 --> 00:17:11.843
And if you don't agree with it, you're in the way.

222
00:17:13.024 --> 00:17:19.088
And so I think that in large measure, we have built a lot of these problems for ourselves.

223
00:17:19.608 --> 00:17:24.030
Do you think much about how the world looks in 10 years' time with artificial intelligence?

224
00:17:24.090 --> 00:17:31.114
Because if we plot the course of travel, it looks like there's going to be a lot of job disruption on one end.

225
00:17:31.614 --> 00:17:37.037
So it's hard to sort of think about what the future looks like if you imagine superintelligence arriving at some point.

226
00:17:37.077 --> 00:17:38.818
And they call it recursive self-improvement.

227
00:17:38.838 --> 00:17:40.418
The AI is getting better and better themselves.

228
00:17:40.899 --> 00:17:41.579
It's hard for me.

229
00:17:41.599 --> 00:17:43.180
It's one of the first times in my life that...

230
00:17:44.060 --> 00:17:45.661
I really don't know what the future looks like.

231
00:17:45.841 --> 00:18:02.151
But just from the first principles of how important intelligence is to the life that I live, whether it's securing my bank account or whether it's securing my house or driving me to work or getting the work done or doing this podcast, it all feels like it's somewhat at risk.

232
00:18:03.352 --> 00:18:05.273
And what remains in such a world in your view?

233
00:18:05.293 --> 00:18:06.453
How does your pancreas work?

234
00:18:07.134 --> 00:18:07.474
No idea.

235
00:18:07.954 --> 00:18:08.555
Do you know where it is?

236
00:18:09.075 --> 00:18:09.155
No.

237
00:18:10.466 --> 00:18:12.808
Do you know how deadly it is as a cancer?

238
00:18:13.288 --> 00:18:13.468
Yes.

239
00:18:13.488 --> 00:18:14.049
A pancreatic?

240
00:18:14.289 --> 00:18:15.049
Yeah, especially for men.

241
00:18:15.329 --> 00:18:15.650
Yeah.

242
00:18:16.971 --> 00:18:19.873
So my feeling about this is none of us know much of anything.

243
00:18:21.154 --> 00:18:24.216
We just count on things working so we don't have to know about them at all.

244
00:18:26.057 --> 00:18:29.800
And this is going to do that for all sorts of things that you're attached to.

245
00:18:30.120 --> 00:18:31.501
And that's what's hard.

246
00:18:33.462 --> 00:18:37.785
Do you think there's going to... Is there a world where people are on UBI, universal basic income?

247
00:18:38.226 --> 00:18:38.686
I hope not.

248
00:18:39.326 --> 00:18:40.167
That would be cancer.

249
00:18:42.147 --> 00:18:48.693
Somehow, and I'm sorry to say that I was probably around for when this happened, UBI got currency.

250
00:18:50.374 --> 00:18:58.722
Like Sam Altman was like coming over to our house and talking about UBI before he was Sam Altman that we know now.

251
00:19:00.183 --> 00:19:01.544
And he was running experiments.

252
00:19:01.684 --> 00:19:05.928
He was, I will say this, Sam has gotten a lot of bad press recently.

253
00:19:06.108 --> 00:19:12.132
And in part, I think a lot of it is driven by people who are very uncomfortable with certain business practices.

254
00:19:12.712 --> 00:19:18.276
But he's done a better job of maneuvering the AI than just about anyone, except for maybe Daria.

255
00:19:18.296 --> 00:19:21.758
He was another person who was just in the circle in San Francisco.

256
00:19:23.299 --> 00:19:24.160
Sam always cared.

257
00:19:24.642 --> 00:19:25.962
It was just very clear that he cared.

258
00:19:26.302 --> 00:19:27.603
He knew what this thing was.

259
00:19:27.643 --> 00:19:29.183
He knew it was closer than it appeared.

260
00:19:30.303 --> 00:19:35.704
I got a courtesy call at some point from him where he said, you know, Eric, this is just coming faster than anyone imagines.

261
00:19:36.805 --> 00:19:45.186
And he had already done experiments with UBI because this, you know, people make this joke about this time it's different.

262
00:19:45.266 --> 00:19:53.428
Every time there's a change in the, in innovation, like the computer or the internet, this time it's different.

263
00:19:53.947 --> 00:19:55.429
No, no, this time it's different.

264
00:19:55.529 --> 00:19:56.650
It's just clearly different.

265
00:19:56.690 --> 00:19:57.671
It's different from anything.

266
00:19:57.691 --> 00:20:02.536
If you can't see that, I cannot believe we are having this discussion with economists.

267
00:20:03.156 --> 00:20:06.640
And they're just laughing because it's always a funny thing to say this time it's different.

268
00:20:06.680 --> 00:20:07.441
Well, tell me.

269
00:20:08.121 --> 00:20:09.182
Every innovation looks like that.

270
00:20:09.343 --> 00:20:10.584
This isn't every innovation.

271
00:20:11.084 --> 00:20:17.611
This is the first innovation that threatened the entire stack of highly trained activities all at once.

272
00:20:19.502 --> 00:20:23.466
Usually we move people up into higher value activity.

273
00:20:24.386 --> 00:20:29.211
This is saying repetitive activity is in the crosshairs.

274
00:20:29.371 --> 00:20:34.476
Anything that you do that's repetitive, AI is going to be able to do better than you.

275
00:20:35.136 --> 00:20:38.059
So now you're only able to do really innovative things.

276
00:20:39.440 --> 00:20:40.641
UBI is the wrong thing to do.

277
00:20:41.402 --> 00:20:42.723
Let me just be very clear about it.

278
00:20:44.021 --> 00:20:46.662
You are living inside of the AI.

279
00:20:47.582 --> 00:20:55.803
If I say, answer this the way Stephen Bartlett would answer it and ask a question that Stephen Bartlett would ask, it knows you.

280
00:20:57.604 --> 00:21:12.847
My point being that we are all living inside of the AI and we need to be paid, not in some Bernie Sanders socialist scheme, but those of us who've become important parts of the AI who are being rigged like meat puppets

281
00:21:15.077 --> 00:21:16.358
need to be compensated.

282
00:21:16.758 --> 00:21:19.660
And the right way to do this is a guy named Ronald Coase.

283
00:21:20.761 --> 00:21:28.905
And it's crazy that the smartest economist maybe of the 20th century, by some measure, the most surprising discovery of the 20th century is Coase's theorem.

284
00:21:30.346 --> 00:21:35.069
And it gives you a complete idea of what you should do.

285
00:21:35.429 --> 00:21:40.112
Access to our labor market should be made into a saleable property right.

286
00:21:40.773 --> 00:21:41.993
What does that mean in simple terms?

287
00:21:43.454 --> 00:21:44.275
You're my employer.

288
00:21:44.575 --> 00:21:44.735
Yeah.

289
00:21:45.777 --> 00:21:49.520
And you want to hire people from abroad, let's say, before we get to AI.

290
00:21:50.802 --> 00:21:54.345
And I say, well, you know, if you do that, you're going to push out the labor supply curve.

291
00:21:54.685 --> 00:21:56.367
And so I'm no dummy.

292
00:21:56.967 --> 00:22:01.031
The price where supply meets demand, the point where that happens is my wage.

293
00:22:01.792 --> 00:22:06.056
So if you push out the supply curve, my wage is going to go down unless something pulls up the demand.

294
00:22:06.696 --> 00:22:09.839
So what I'm going to do is I'm going to say, look, I'm happy to have my wage go down.

295
00:22:12.450 --> 00:22:19.197
But I want licensing income where I get a cut of what you get from being able to hire, let's say, more taxi drivers.

296
00:22:19.237 --> 00:22:21.579
I'm the only American taxi driver in New York City.

297
00:22:22.640 --> 00:22:29.067
And you say, I have to bring in a bunch of people from Gambia and Uzbekistan and whatnot.

298
00:22:29.667 --> 00:22:32.110
You say, okay, I'll license you.

299
00:22:32.671 --> 00:22:34.993
You will buy the right to import those people from me.

300
00:22:36.571 --> 00:22:42.900
And my wage income will go down, my licensing income will go up, and my blended income will increase, and your blended income will increase.

301
00:22:44.001 --> 00:22:45.844
That's the proper way to do immigration.

302
00:22:46.985 --> 00:22:50.049
So you would be my employee, and you would have the right to...

303
00:22:52.847 --> 00:22:54.648
basically approve me bringing in.

304
00:22:55.109 --> 00:22:55.389
Yes.

305
00:22:55.449 --> 00:23:02.233
If I'm a doctor and I've trained, I've invested and you're saying, look, I have to be able to hire the best and the brightest Eric.

306
00:23:02.273 --> 00:23:02.954
Let's face it.

307
00:23:02.994 --> 00:23:04.395
It's a dog eat dog world.

308
00:23:04.915 --> 00:23:06.516
And, uh, I think you're just not that good.

309
00:23:06.957 --> 00:23:12.560
So I want to be able to, you know, to go to mum room grand hospital in Thailand and, and hire their doctors.

310
00:23:14.161 --> 00:23:14.902
I should say fine.

311
00:23:17.083 --> 00:23:17.844
Knock yourself out.

312
00:23:18.624 --> 00:23:19.425
What do I have to ask you?

313
00:23:21.043 --> 00:23:24.946
Because I had, why did you need labor certification?

314
00:23:26.107 --> 00:23:27.569
I have rights to my labor market.

315
00:23:27.589 --> 00:23:29.250
That's how, that's how we play the game.

316
00:23:29.290 --> 00:23:31.352
That's how everybody in the U.S. gets a cut.

317
00:23:31.392 --> 00:23:35.715
That's why you're not looking at Brazilian inequality levels yet.

318
00:23:36.656 --> 00:23:44.663
It's because we have a way of distributing the wealth of this country, which is that you get first access to the world's richest labor market.

319
00:23:44.903 --> 00:23:46.625
Because you did a PhD.

320
00:23:46.805 --> 00:23:48.186
Because I was born here.

321
00:23:48.586 --> 00:23:49.247
Because you were born here.

322
00:23:50.520 --> 00:23:56.044
congratulations, this is why it's valuable to have a U.S. citizenship or permanent residency.

323
00:23:56.404 --> 00:24:00.187
So if I put you out of work, you then will get a full, you'll still get your money.

324
00:24:00.507 --> 00:24:01.688
You're not going to put me out of work.

325
00:24:02.169 --> 00:24:03.530
I'm just going to have my income go down.

326
00:24:05.671 --> 00:24:07.413
In other words, the basic idea is,

327
00:24:09.396 --> 00:24:16.683
employers try to make American workers, and I'm doing it for the U.S., but it could be Britain or it could be France or it could be India, it doesn't matter.

328
00:24:16.703 --> 00:24:23.810
The whole game is that employers want to conceptualize the blockage to hire from abroad as red tape.

329
00:24:24.331 --> 00:24:25.572
We're freeing red tape.

330
00:24:25.592 --> 00:24:26.693
We're going after the best.

331
00:24:26.713 --> 00:24:28.255
This is total nonsense.

332
00:24:29.357 --> 00:24:33.359
This is a theory known as the Borjas rectangle and the Harberger triangle.

333
00:24:33.459 --> 00:24:37.242
I can diagram it out for you on a whiteboard.

334
00:24:38.462 --> 00:24:50.629
And what is really happening is that a tiny inefficiency known as the Harberger triangle sits on top of a giant structure called the Borjas rectangle.

335
00:24:51.590 --> 00:24:55.572
And nobody cares about the Harberger triangle.

336
00:24:55.672 --> 00:24:57.233
It's a tiny little inefficiency.

337
00:24:58.017 --> 00:25:01.478
Everybody's salivating over labor's share of the labor market.

338
00:25:01.598 --> 00:25:07.519
How do I screw over labor is the dream of every CEO of a large company.

339
00:25:08.620 --> 00:25:12.360
In this model, AI becomes just another supplier of labor.

340
00:25:12.881 --> 00:25:13.101
Yeah.

341
00:25:13.181 --> 00:25:14.741
The workers license that.

342
00:25:16.301 --> 00:25:18.222
Right now, what we have is just out and out theft.

343
00:25:18.242 --> 00:25:18.422
Right.

344
00:25:20.205 --> 00:25:20.585
Because?

345
00:25:21.146 --> 00:25:28.352
Because the corpus, all of human achievement has been tokenized.

346
00:25:29.933 --> 00:25:32.555
It's been taken by the AI and it's doing...

347
00:25:32.715 --> 00:25:34.917
It's taken in persistent storage, you know?

348
00:25:34.977 --> 00:25:40.542
Like, right now, people who are watching us on YouTube are not watching us.

349
00:25:40.582 --> 00:25:41.843
You and I are no longer here.

350
00:25:43.384 --> 00:25:46.987
This is long since I've gone home, you've gone home, you've had several guests since.

351
00:25:47.968 --> 00:25:49.009
We got tokenized.

352
00:25:49.029 --> 00:25:49.409
We got tokenized.

353
00:25:49.935 --> 00:25:56.559
We got put into persistent storage as these shreds of ourselves, but it's enough the trace of that conversation.

354
00:25:56.619 --> 00:26:02.442
Now you can hit the auto transcript generation on YouTube and it'll give you what all of our words are.

355
00:26:03.022 --> 00:26:04.523
You can do frequency analysis.

356
00:26:04.543 --> 00:26:12.407
How often does Eric use the double copula, which is this grammatical quirk that creeps into my speech?

357
00:26:12.848 --> 00:26:14.368
How often does Stephen say, um...

358
00:26:15.898 --> 00:26:21.362
Whatever it is, we're being tokenized at an incredible level, and then we're being rigged inside of the AI.

359
00:26:22.243 --> 00:26:22.884
Voluntarily?

360
00:26:23.124 --> 00:26:23.324
No.

361
00:26:23.964 --> 00:26:25.526
No, completely non-consensually.

362
00:26:27.647 --> 00:26:29.469
Completely non-consensually.

363
00:26:30.129 --> 00:26:33.592
Is it non-consensual because you're aware of that and you still came and sat here to be tokenized?

364
00:26:36.314 --> 00:26:41.978
Have you ever tried getting through a day without signing anything that you don't wanna sign?

365
00:26:42.638 --> 00:26:48.262
I mean, more or less, you probably either rent or have a mortgage.

366
00:26:49.402 --> 00:26:51.824
I guarantee you, if you have a mortgage, you didn't read everything.

367
00:26:51.844 --> 00:26:53.725
A giant stack of paper.

368
00:26:54.185 --> 00:26:55.046
You don't understand it.

369
00:26:55.686 --> 00:27:03.631
You're constantly forced to pretend that you voluntarily, like, you know, we say ignorance of the law is no excuse.

370
00:27:05.052 --> 00:27:12.718
If every judge who said ignorance of the law is no excuse were given an instant spot quiz as to what the U.S. code says, do you think they'd pass?

371
00:27:13.779 --> 00:27:14.019
No.

372
00:27:15.400 --> 00:27:16.721
So how does this pertain to AI?

373
00:27:17.002 --> 00:27:24.828
The example you gave of importing foreign labor, how would that pertain to a new model for AI in distributing the value?

374
00:27:24.848 --> 00:27:31.573
The reason that these people are getting so rich is that this is an uncompensated theft.

375
00:27:33.503 --> 00:27:34.684
We don't know how to police it.

376
00:27:35.465 --> 00:27:40.090
We've got Bernie Sanders saying, pay everybody a little share.

377
00:27:40.751 --> 00:27:42.293
It's like, screw you, man.

378
00:27:43.653 --> 00:27:45.474
I work really hard on the things that I do.

379
00:27:46.074 --> 00:27:52.516
And then I've got Bernie Sanders and my friend Andrew Yang going on about the socialism stuff.

380
00:27:52.556 --> 00:27:57.158
Socialism is spiritual and mental poison.

381
00:27:57.198 --> 00:28:03.240
And normally when people say that, they're saying it from the point of view of like they're really money focused.

382
00:28:03.260 --> 00:28:04.680
It has nothing to do with anything.

383
00:28:05.621 --> 00:28:07.341
I just can't stand collectivism.

384
00:28:07.741 --> 00:28:09.142
I love individuality.

385
00:28:11.003 --> 00:28:22.216
And so, you know, when I hear people who go on an anti-individualist rant, particularly, you know, this could be, there's no lone genius theory anymore.

386
00:28:22.236 --> 00:28:30.184
We all know lone genius theory is not, well, we have fantastic evidence of lone geniuses from Isaac Newton to Aristotle to, you know, whoever.

387
00:28:31.125 --> 00:28:32.606
Well, there shouldn't be any billionaires.

388
00:28:32.786 --> 00:28:33.066
Oh, really?

389
00:28:33.086 --> 00:28:34.987
Do you know what billionaires actually do with their billions?

390
00:28:35.027 --> 00:28:35.747
They allocate.

391
00:28:36.027 --> 00:28:38.308
They don't sit there and just consume it.

392
00:28:39.189 --> 00:28:44.031
I'm not saying that the rich don't consume opulently, but most of that money is allocated.

393
00:28:45.463 --> 00:28:55.873
What we're having is an inability to reckon with the fact that the AI is normalizing theft, is going to destroy the labor market.

394
00:28:57.034 --> 00:29:01.639
No one is convening conferences that are at the level of the threat.

395
00:29:02.720 --> 00:29:05.963
We're going to lose this beautiful mesh that provides us freedom.

396
00:29:06.644 --> 00:29:07.945
I chose to come here today.

397
00:29:09.344 --> 00:29:11.445
But we were both doing this out of freedom.

398
00:29:11.785 --> 00:29:13.526
You had lovely snacks in your green room.

399
00:29:13.606 --> 00:29:15.407
There's an array of equipment here.

400
00:29:15.447 --> 00:29:16.748
You've come up with a beautiful set.

401
00:29:17.529 --> 00:29:18.909
You know, really appreciate it.

402
00:29:19.950 --> 00:29:21.351
All of that was voluntary.

403
00:29:21.651 --> 00:29:23.232
It was a sum of choices.

404
00:29:25.641 --> 00:29:26.581
I don't want that going away.

405
00:29:26.621 --> 00:29:34.284
This mesh that governs our lives, that gives us purpose when we get up in the morning, that gives us signals, that tells us, you're doing a good job, you're doing a bad job.

406
00:29:34.324 --> 00:29:36.065
It's not perfect.

407
00:29:36.165 --> 00:29:37.345
Some people it doesn't serve well.

408
00:29:37.365 --> 00:29:41.586
I've had times in my life when I've just said, I cannot buy a base hit and I'm doing a great job.

409
00:29:41.606 --> 00:29:42.147
What's going on?

410
00:29:42.167 --> 00:29:45.588
I've had other times when I think I'm not doing a great job and I'm getting rewarded.

411
00:29:46.088 --> 00:29:46.888
So it's not perfect.

412
00:29:46.928 --> 00:29:49.849
It's not a great morality play the way capitalists always portray it.

413
00:29:50.449 --> 00:29:51.250
But it is freedom.

414
00:29:52.230 --> 00:29:54.512
And it's sort of on average pretty good.

415
00:29:55.592 --> 00:30:11.103
And we're in danger of losing that because the model of production, the K&L model, where this interview is an input of capital and the microphones, the lighting, the video storage, and labor.

416
00:30:11.323 --> 00:30:12.043
You're sitting down.

417
00:30:12.483 --> 00:30:13.084
I'm sitting down.

418
00:30:14.865 --> 00:30:15.806
Well, what is AI?

419
00:30:16.046 --> 00:30:16.706
Is it capital?

420
00:30:17.487 --> 00:30:18.707
Sure looks like labor to me.

421
00:30:19.568 --> 00:30:20.088
Is it labor?

422
00:30:20.248 --> 00:30:20.889
It's not a human.

423
00:30:22.257 --> 00:30:27.020
So right now we're in some situation where we're going to break capitalism and we're going to break freedom.

424
00:30:27.341 --> 00:30:28.421
We're going to break markets.

425
00:30:29.402 --> 00:30:50.117
And I've talked about this in an article called Anthropic Capitalism, saying that capitalism versus communism was a really funny thing to think about because it's sort of saying, pardon me for being slightly graphic, capitalism and communism are more like Thelma and Louise and saying that, well, Thelma hit the ground first does not mean that Louise won.

426
00:30:51.418 --> 00:30:53.099
Okay, communism blew up first.

427
00:30:53.840 --> 00:30:55.842
Capitalism shortly thereafter.

428
00:30:57.343 --> 00:31:06.491
If Marx and Adam Smith and all of these people who came up with the theory of social organization were sitting around now, I don't think they'd be debating capitalism versus communism.

429
00:31:07.312 --> 00:31:08.893
They'd be talking about what's next.

430
00:31:10.134 --> 00:31:11.876
And none of our leaders know to do this.

431
00:31:12.897 --> 00:31:14.438
None of our academic leaders know.

432
00:31:15.885 --> 00:31:18.806
None of our business leaders, none of our political leaders.

433
00:31:19.146 --> 00:31:22.408
There are no high-profile series of conferences.

434
00:31:23.208 --> 00:31:24.408
My phone is not ringing.

435
00:31:24.789 --> 00:31:25.789
Nobody's phone is ringing.

436
00:31:25.809 --> 00:31:30.191
We're just having, we had this incredible luncheon at the White House.

437
00:31:30.891 --> 00:31:32.392
The future of superintelligence.

438
00:31:34.333 --> 00:31:45.017
I don't think there were physicists or mathematicians or biologists or composers or writers

439
00:31:46.757 --> 00:31:51.459
It was just like wall-to-wall national interest in business types.

440
00:31:52.559 --> 00:31:53.439
It's insane.

441
00:31:54.840 --> 00:31:57.841
Stephen, let me just hit a theme.

442
00:32:00.162 --> 00:32:09.465
I think you can pretty much prove that more or less something approaching 100% of the population has gone completely insane.

443
00:32:11.826 --> 00:32:13.407
And you can see it everywhere.

444
00:32:13.767 --> 00:32:14.547
If I say, okay,

445
00:32:17.395 --> 00:32:25.041
How many people were talking about Joe Biden being demented with the nuclear football for four years of his presidency?

446
00:32:25.962 --> 00:32:29.185
He should have been nowhere near the White House the entire time.

447
00:32:30.065 --> 00:32:34.529
I was screaming, he has been replaced by a committee of people, I've been assured.

448
00:32:35.790 --> 00:32:41.535
It's the same thing that happened with Roosevelt when he had those braces and he was in a wheelchair and he was never photographed.

449
00:32:42.355 --> 00:32:43.997
The whole thing was stage managed.

450
00:32:44.017 --> 00:32:44.157
Yeah.

451
00:32:45.673 --> 00:32:48.454
The entire management of COVID was completely fake.

452
00:32:50.855 --> 00:32:53.397
We cannot get to the bottom of Jeffrey Epstein.

453
00:32:53.537 --> 00:32:55.758
Of course we can get to the bottom of Jeffrey Epstein.

454
00:32:56.918 --> 00:33:01.060
It would take two days to get to the bottom of Jeffrey Epstein if we're trying to get to the bottom of Jeffrey Epstein.

455
00:33:02.040 --> 00:33:03.541
No part of this is true.

456
00:33:05.062 --> 00:33:09.624
We're just living bathed in what I would call managed reality.

457
00:33:10.904 --> 00:33:14.266
And the idea that we accept this is...

458
00:33:16.580 --> 00:33:24.188
I cannot believe that I am, how do I get the drugs so that I see things the way everyone else is pretending to see them?

459
00:33:24.888 --> 00:33:27.030
We all are losing faith in CNN.

460
00:33:27.591 --> 00:33:28.952
Nobody really trusts Harvard.

461
00:33:29.593 --> 00:33:38.882
Like, everything about our life is completely bananas, fictionalized, managed, walled wall.

462
00:33:40.783 --> 00:33:47.430
And for some reason, nobody's given me the right elixir or potion to see things so that I can actually live with this day to day.

463
00:33:47.470 --> 00:33:48.651
I'm just stuck in reality.

464
00:33:52.055 --> 00:33:53.016
That's what I think is happening.

465
00:33:53.136 --> 00:33:55.338
And it feels weird to say it.

466
00:33:56.620 --> 00:33:58.602
Did you happen to see the David Grush thing?

467
00:33:59.002 --> 00:33:59.162
No.

468
00:34:00.284 --> 00:34:00.844
David Grush.

469
00:34:01.124 --> 00:34:01.785
David Grush.

470
00:34:02.406 --> 00:34:03.427
Well, put in...

471
00:34:04.486 --> 00:34:06.948
to your handy dandy iPad or whatever it is.

472
00:34:07.889 --> 00:34:13.333
David Grush, G-R-U-S-C-H, and J-R-E, Joe Rogan Experience.

473
00:34:14.834 --> 00:34:15.474
I know David.

474
00:34:15.494 --> 00:34:18.196
He's a pretty sober guy, has a nearly eidetic memory.

475
00:34:18.436 --> 00:34:19.857
He's very spectrum-y.

476
00:34:20.898 --> 00:34:23.180
He's highly consistent year to year.

477
00:34:24.801 --> 00:34:26.002
exactly the same stories.

478
00:34:26.343 --> 00:34:28.045
And what do you find that he was talking about?

479
00:34:29.206 --> 00:34:39.678
During his appearance, Grush discussed his background in federal intelligence and elaborated on his claims regarding covert government programs that allegedly retrieve and reverse engineer non-human

480
00:34:40.018 --> 00:34:40.538
aircraft.

481
00:34:41.419 --> 00:34:54.963
In these discussions, Grush touched on various second-hand accounts and documents he encountered detailing allegations of non-human intelligence and encounters, internal government secrecy, and regulatory legislative efforts to force UAP disclosures.

482
00:34:56.584 --> 00:34:57.704
Yeah, that's sanitized.

483
00:34:57.864 --> 00:34:59.005
Let's get to the sex.

484
00:34:59.585 --> 00:35:03.766
He was in a skiff, apparently, where he was told that they were considering whether or not to kill him.

485
00:35:10.923 --> 00:35:20.847
He claims that different species of aliens have been reported to him to be having fights in the skies above Earth.

486
00:35:22.348 --> 00:35:27.610
This is all beyond batshit crazy.

487
00:35:28.290 --> 00:35:28.851
Do you believe that?

488
00:35:30.111 --> 00:35:31.132
It's a secondary issue.

489
00:35:32.552 --> 00:35:33.773
Is that not the primary issue?

490
00:35:33.853 --> 00:35:36.534
No, it's the secondary issue because it's so bananas.

491
00:35:38.153 --> 00:35:54.665
Look, I want you to imagine that somebody's telling you that we have killed giant lizard people, like an adult, sober adult is telling you that we've fired on giant lizard people who've killed U.S. service people because there are hostile aliens and non-hostile aliens.

492
00:35:56.327 --> 00:36:05.874
With all this stated, I would analogize it to there's a giant lump under the rug and it's moving and it looks biological.

493
00:36:08.947 --> 00:36:13.248
And somebody says, I think there's a being under the rug.

494
00:36:14.348 --> 00:36:19.609
I don't know what kind of being, but it's hard to ignore the fact that the rug is moving and there is a giant lump.

495
00:36:20.350 --> 00:36:24.150
And somebody else says, I see no evidence of a lump.

496
00:36:25.071 --> 00:36:28.231
The first person says, oh yeah, no, it's aliens.

497
00:36:28.251 --> 00:36:30.332
The other person says, there's nothing there.

498
00:36:31.412 --> 00:36:35.553
Now, I'm listening to the two of them and saying, I have no idea what either of you are talking about.

499
00:36:36.667 --> 00:36:41.793
There is a lump, and you guys are having a conversation about is there or isn't there that doesn't make any sense.

500
00:36:41.913 --> 00:36:43.555
I have no belief that there are aliens.

501
00:36:43.615 --> 00:36:45.397
I have no belief that there aren't aliens.

502
00:36:46.438 --> 00:36:51.103
I do know that there is something called a special access program, which is a special

503
00:36:51.563 --> 00:36:52.804
which is how we do secret stuff.

504
00:36:53.544 --> 00:36:55.825
And then there's unacknowledged special access programs.

505
00:36:55.885 --> 00:37:03.328
And then there's waived unacknowledged special access programs, which we don't even have oversight over the thing that we refuse to acknowledge that is itself secret.

506
00:37:03.888 --> 00:37:07.750
And then we have waived and bigoted unacknowledged special access programs, WABUSAPs.

507
00:37:08.370 --> 00:37:20.495
And a waived and bigoted unacknowledged special access program, which we can prove are on the books because that is not denied, is a program that has essentially close to zero oversight

508
00:37:22.282 --> 00:37:33.431
is secret, that is clandestine, is denied, that is covert, and has a list called a bigot list of the only people who it can be acknowledged to.

509
00:37:35.272 --> 00:37:43.619
I claim, the only thing that I know is that we have WAB use apps involving unacknowledged special access programs that are about aliens.

510
00:37:44.648 --> 00:37:59.212
Now, whether it's about faking aliens and we have giant paper mache spacecraft, or whether these are actual craft, or whether these are cover for things that we're designing at Northrop, I don't know.

511
00:38:01.252 --> 00:38:03.513
But pretending that this isn't interesting...

512
00:38:06.947 --> 00:38:07.728
is insane.

513
00:38:08.368 --> 00:38:14.052
Again, it's more evidence that no one is thinking properly because everyone is doing the pre-computation.

514
00:38:14.072 --> 00:38:31.525
The pre-computation is, Stephen, if I acknowledge to you that I know David Grush personally, and I speak to Ryan Graves, and I've talked to Chris Mellon, and I've hanged out with Gary Nolan, all these 50 people who all have different versions of the same story.

515
00:38:39.445 --> 00:38:46.050
All of these people are reporting on this giant lump under the rug that doesn't have all of our attention.

516
00:38:46.951 --> 00:38:48.592
So you're saying aliens are real?

517
00:38:48.933 --> 00:38:49.093
No.

518
00:38:50.454 --> 00:38:59.301
I am saying that there are giant special access programs that have aliens as their supposed reason for being.

519
00:39:00.062 --> 00:39:04.205
And those special access programs could be, you know, discussing anything about aliens, right?

520
00:39:05.000 --> 00:39:10.064
They could be cover for secret casinos for the elite.

521
00:39:10.084 --> 00:39:10.304
Yeah.

522
00:39:10.744 --> 00:39:11.124
I don't know.

523
00:39:11.625 --> 00:39:12.605
So what is the conclusion though?

524
00:39:13.226 --> 00:39:18.289
All I know is there's a giant lump under the rug and we're not freaking out about it.

525
00:39:18.710 --> 00:39:26.175
It's moving around, it's making noises and we're having a dinner party and nobody's mentioning the fact, like this isn't top of mind.

526
00:39:26.215 --> 00:39:28.757
Your staff didn't say, Steven, you've got to see this.

527
00:39:30.438 --> 00:39:31.899
That is itself insane.

528
00:39:31.919 --> 00:39:32.019
Yeah.

529
00:39:33.472 --> 00:39:34.853
Because do you know why it's not top of mind?

530
00:39:34.913 --> 00:39:39.975
Because we've heard lots of things about there being aliens and sightings.

531
00:39:40.055 --> 00:39:42.977
And back when I was growing up, it was all about crop fields and stuff.

532
00:39:43.777 --> 00:39:47.879
Having alien craft landing on crop fields and creating these big circles.

533
00:39:48.399 --> 00:39:49.660
And nothing's really ever happened.

534
00:39:50.701 --> 00:39:53.382
So at some point, I think the mind turns into wallpaper.

535
00:39:53.962 --> 00:39:56.864
And attention goes elsewhere to things that are actually happening.

536
00:39:56.904 --> 00:39:58.004
We can see bombs dropping.

537
00:39:58.705 --> 00:40:00.145
There was a sudden announcement.

538
00:40:00.165 --> 00:40:01.006
We're shutting down...

539
00:40:01.646 --> 00:40:04.167
the El Paso Airport in West Texas.

540
00:40:05.407 --> 00:40:06.388
What the heck was that about?

541
00:40:06.988 --> 00:40:07.308
I don't know.

542
00:40:08.088 --> 00:40:13.590
The White Sands Missile Range is immediately north, and there's a base in Texas right there.

543
00:40:14.451 --> 00:40:22.453
And there's apparently an infestation of lights in the sky that can be seen without needing to be in secure territory.

544
00:40:23.114 --> 00:40:24.274
It could be drones or something.

545
00:40:24.814 --> 00:40:26.675
The official story was cartel drones.

546
00:40:27.516 --> 00:40:29.399
I don't believe it's cartel drones.

547
00:40:29.719 --> 00:40:30.360
What do you think it is?

548
00:40:31.582 --> 00:40:33.965
I believe that it's one of two things.

549
00:40:34.186 --> 00:40:39.914
Either we've lost control of our airspace and there's something flying around, which is completely insane.

550
00:40:40.114 --> 00:40:41.156
Which could be cartel drones.

551
00:40:43.335 --> 00:40:44.495
Darling, no.

552
00:40:44.955 --> 00:40:45.896
It's not cartel drones.

553
00:40:46.876 --> 00:40:47.616
I'll put money on it.

554
00:40:48.016 --> 00:40:53.197
If you want, I would love to take some of that sweet diary of a CEO cash away from you.

555
00:40:53.237 --> 00:40:54.398
You seem like you're doing very well.

556
00:40:55.298 --> 00:40:56.478
I don't believe it's cartel drones.

557
00:40:56.978 --> 00:40:57.158
Okay.

558
00:40:57.178 --> 00:40:59.419
By the way, it's not that the cartels don't have drones.

559
00:40:59.639 --> 00:41:02.379
It's just, that's a cover story.

560
00:41:03.580 --> 00:41:04.980
I think it's one of two things.

561
00:41:05.040 --> 00:41:08.561
I think either we are red team, blue teaming.

562
00:41:10.111 --> 00:41:10.631
ourselves.

563
00:41:10.912 --> 00:41:21.159
So we've got some persistent drone capacity that nobody knows that we have, and we're seeing how we would react to it because not everybody knows that we have it.

564
00:41:21.179 --> 00:41:24.301
So you have part of the U.S. that's in on it, part of the U.S. that isn't in on it.

565
00:41:24.742 --> 00:41:26.223
You're doing this red team, blue team thing.

566
00:41:26.243 --> 00:41:27.424
I think that's one possibility.

567
00:41:28.044 --> 00:41:32.367
I think the other possibility is that it's stuff that we don't know.

568
00:41:32.928 --> 00:41:33.328
It's a UAP.

569
00:41:33.348 --> 00:41:33.508
Yeah.

570
00:41:34.408 --> 00:41:34.588
Right.

571
00:41:35.229 --> 00:41:42.875
But then that has its own branch, which is human state actors, human non-state actors, non-human actors.

572
00:41:43.535 --> 00:41:46.017
Do you think there are non-human actors in our world?

573
00:41:46.938 --> 00:41:48.859
Well, this goes back to what I believe about physics.

574
00:41:49.580 --> 00:41:50.641
I believe we can leave.

575
00:41:51.802 --> 00:41:53.103
You believe we can leave the solar system?

576
00:41:53.343 --> 00:41:54.984
I believe we can leave the solar system.

577
00:41:55.224 --> 00:41:56.766
Elon believes we can leave the planet.

578
00:41:56.906 --> 00:41:58.507
I believe we can leave the solar system.

579
00:42:00.092 --> 00:42:07.215
Elon thinks that we should be able to leave the solar system, but his belief is, I will not speak to physicists, I will only talk to my AI.

580
00:42:08.096 --> 00:42:09.856
Physicists are not trustworthy.

581
00:42:10.397 --> 00:42:12.378
I understand exactly why he says that.

582
00:42:13.298 --> 00:42:21.582
I have a totally different belief, which is that it is up to us to get ourselves the heck out of the solar system really quickly.

583
00:42:21.642 --> 00:42:26.244
Now, if I believe that we can get out, why would I believe that nobody can visit us?

584
00:42:28.213 --> 00:42:31.734
So I think it'll be relatively insane if there are no aliens.

585
00:42:33.274 --> 00:42:43.878
The only reason I would think that there would be no aliens is the general relativity somehow holds more strongly than any serious physicist believes it holds.

586
00:42:45.578 --> 00:42:49.199
There really is sort of an absolute speed limit, which I don't believe.

587
00:42:49.739 --> 00:42:52.400
I mean, I should be careful about that.

588
00:42:54.035 --> 00:42:55.395
I believe there's a speed limit.

589
00:42:55.415 --> 00:42:58.316
I don't think that it is relevant.

590
00:42:58.376 --> 00:43:07.719
If you can change the length of the road, the speed limit can be enforced, but you can get farther than you thought.

591
00:43:09.360 --> 00:43:14.261
I believe that it would be insane that there is no one visiting us.

592
00:43:16.087 --> 00:43:18.129
You said there that you think we should get the hell out.

593
00:43:18.449 --> 00:43:18.689
Yeah.

594
00:43:19.169 --> 00:43:20.631
Why should we get the hell out of Planeta?

595
00:43:21.131 --> 00:43:23.072
Well, just a diversification.

596
00:43:23.713 --> 00:43:39.385
If the idea is that most worlds will blow themselves up, and most groups of people will do harm to themselves, if we want the species to survive, we should try the maximal number of experiments.

597
00:43:42.307 --> 00:43:45.490
Look, again, I think that all of this is obvious,

598
00:43:46.873 --> 00:43:50.356
It carries a heavy social penalty, and that's why we're insane.

599
00:43:51.337 --> 00:43:55.121
We're insane because the obvious carries a social penalty.

600
00:43:55.501 --> 00:43:57.683
To observe what is clearly true.

601
00:43:58.163 --> 00:43:59.064
Which part is clearly true?

602
00:43:59.665 --> 00:44:06.631
Well, for example, just it is clearly true that Anthony Fauci was not leveling with us about COVID and its origins.

603
00:44:08.653 --> 00:44:08.993
Clearly.

604
00:44:09.874 --> 00:44:12.997
If that makes you uncomfortable, we shouldn't even have a conversation.

605
00:44:14.548 --> 00:44:19.712
It's clearly true that we were dissuaded from asking any questions about the eco-health alliance, clearly.

606
00:44:20.673 --> 00:44:23.416
Which part of, I thought you were going to say leaving the solar system.

607
00:44:23.436 --> 00:44:25.097
Well, that's, but that's the next thing.

608
00:44:25.500 --> 00:44:31.423
Clearly, general relativity isn't the last word because it's got two singularities that aren't going to be in the final equations.

609
00:44:32.403 --> 00:44:39.406
We're not going to have a black hole Schwarzschild singularity and an initial Friedman-Robertson-Walker singularity at the Big Bang.

610
00:44:40.547 --> 00:44:42.768
That's an artifact of the theory not being right.

611
00:44:43.028 --> 00:44:49.651
Do you think it's plausible that humans figure out a way to leave the solar system before the sun explodes or we implode ourselves?

612
00:44:49.671 --> 00:44:49.751
Yes.

613
00:44:50.491 --> 00:44:52.412
I think we could have done it 40 years ago.

614
00:44:53.132 --> 00:44:54.713
But there's no science for that, is there?

615
00:44:55.093 --> 00:44:58.155
Okay, Stephen, for whatever reason, you're having me on your show.

616
00:44:58.715 --> 00:45:00.536
And I've told you, I think everyone is insane.

617
00:45:01.737 --> 00:45:06.719
Yes, I think that the entire theoretical physics community has completely lost its mind full stop.

618
00:45:07.020 --> 00:45:09.781
So why don't you build the ship that can take us out of the solar system?

619
00:45:10.761 --> 00:45:11.882
Um, okay.

620
00:45:12.422 --> 00:45:14.744
Because Elon's smart and he's trying to get us to Mars.

621
00:45:15.424 --> 00:45:17.065
Do you have any understanding of what Elon's trying to do?

622
00:45:17.085 --> 00:45:17.545
Because I don't.

623
00:45:18.265 --> 00:45:20.487
And I do correspond with him occasionally.

624
00:45:20.507 --> 00:45:20.907
Okay.

625
00:45:21.807 --> 00:45:27.712
I think Elon is trying to motivate engineers to build a rocket company to make him very rich.

626
00:45:28.692 --> 00:45:35.237
And I believe that his real space program, and I said this before he merged SpaceX and XAI, is Grok.

627
00:45:36.433 --> 00:45:37.454
That's a space program.

628
00:45:38.094 --> 00:45:39.895
XAI and Grok is the space program.

629
00:45:40.055 --> 00:45:41.195
That's the real space program.

630
00:45:41.616 --> 00:45:44.157
GROK is his version of like chat GBT at the moment.

631
00:45:45.218 --> 00:45:53.022
Yeah, but it's gonna be more, Elon has actually figured out something really deep about that that took me a while to appreciate how clever this is.

632
00:45:54.022 --> 00:46:02.685
So it's painful for me to have to sort of try to call balls and strikes on Elon because I'm in awe and I'm also disappointed with the same human.

633
00:46:03.765 --> 00:46:05.586
And there's the sense of leave Elon alone.

634
00:46:05.626 --> 00:46:06.606
He's the only genius.

635
00:46:06.626 --> 00:46:08.867
Okay, I understand that energy.

636
00:46:09.007 --> 00:46:15.089
And then there's another thing where, you know, he just takes a tremendous amount of crap from people with no idea what's going on.

637
00:46:15.209 --> 00:46:17.410
So it's uncomfortable because I don't know the answer.

638
00:46:18.030 --> 00:46:20.591
I think Elon figured out that he has to leg in

639
00:46:22.371 --> 00:46:24.092
to his Ad Astra program.

640
00:46:26.273 --> 00:46:29.856
And Ad Astra means to the stars, right?

641
00:46:30.076 --> 00:46:33.378
Like a full quote is to the stars with struggle or something like that.

642
00:46:37.380 --> 00:46:40.422
Elon doesn't trust physicists because they're not trustworthy.

643
00:46:41.742 --> 00:46:49.567
And this is the frustration that I'm having with the AI is that we can't trust the leadership of the math physics community.

644
00:46:51.084 --> 00:46:58.406
And you've just seen crazy behavior on the part of Terry Tao and 24 other fields mentalists.

645
00:46:59.766 --> 00:47:04.468
And trying to get AI to slow down the pace of progress.

646
00:47:06.028 --> 00:47:13.690
And this is absolutely crazy and also wonderful because it's being done in full view of everyone.

647
00:47:14.190 --> 00:47:16.371
It's been very hard for me to explain.

648
00:47:16.731 --> 00:47:19.792
We have been trying to hold back mathematics and physics.

649
00:47:21.618 --> 00:47:27.203
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650
00:47:27.363 --> 00:47:31.546
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651
00:47:31.686 --> 00:47:38.172
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667
00:48:34.793 --> 00:48:36.934
This is something that I've made for you.

668
00:48:37.014 --> 00:48:43.298
I've realized that the Diary of a Sear audience are strivers, whether it's in business or health, we all have big goals that we want to accomplish.

669
00:48:43.639 --> 00:48:55.386
And one of the things I've learned is that when you aim at the big, big, big goal, it can feel incredibly psychologically uncomfortable because it's kind of like being stood at the foot of Mount Everest and looking upwards.

670
00:48:55.786 --> 00:48:59.048
The way to accomplish your goals is by breaking them down into tasks,

671
00:48:59.048 --> 00:49:00.589
Tiny, small steps.

672
00:49:00.689 --> 00:49:02.550
And we call this in our team, the 1%.

673
00:49:02.570 --> 00:49:06.792
And actually, this philosophy is highly responsible for much of our success here.

674
00:49:06.972 --> 00:49:13.075
So what we've done so that you at home can accomplish any big goal that you have is we've made these 1% diaries

675
00:49:14.296 --> 00:49:16.697
And we released these last year and they all sold out.

676
00:49:16.997 --> 00:49:23.100
So I asked my team over and over again to bring the diaries back, but also to introduce some new colors and to make some minor tweaks to the diary.

677
00:49:23.120 --> 00:49:27.523
So now we have a better range for you.

678
00:49:27.763 --> 00:49:37.327
So if you have a big goal in mind and you need a framework and a process and some motivation, then I highly recommend you get one of these diaries before they all sell out once again.

679
00:49:37.348 --> 00:49:40.209
And you can get yours at thediary.com.

680
00:49:40.409 --> 00:49:42.170
And if you want the link, the link is in the description below.

681
00:49:43.625 --> 00:49:48.332
Dario, leader of Anthropic, wrote this essay that I have here, We Must Pace the Frontier.

682
00:49:48.813 --> 00:49:58.408
Derived from the July 2026 letter in which he's a signatory, in which all of these employees, various frontier labs, said we must pace the frontier.

683
00:49:59.218 --> 00:50:02.481
They seem to be all saying that we need to pace the frontier, slow down AI.

684
00:50:02.561 --> 00:50:05.042
You have to be very careful because they're saying different things.

685
00:50:05.583 --> 00:50:14.769
Like, let's imagine that what you had was a car that could go really fast and you were having an easier time making the car go faster than you were getting the airbags to deploy safely.

686
00:50:15.410 --> 00:50:15.710
Yeah.

687
00:50:15.790 --> 00:50:26.317
So you can understand pace the frontier might mean let's make sure that we are investing equally in all the systems that have to go to work together to have a responsible product.

688
00:50:26.337 --> 00:50:27.418
Okay.

689
00:50:27.438 --> 00:50:27.538
Okay.

690
00:50:28.397 --> 00:50:51.523
I understand what that concept of pacing the frontier is, but there's something else here that's going on, which is you do not understand the extent to which the leadership of mathematics and physics and the journals of mathematics and physics and the agencies that are supposed to fund mathematics and physics hold back mathematics and physics.

691
00:50:52.168 --> 00:50:53.188
I'll take your word at that.

692
00:50:53.569 --> 00:51:00.712
But there's still wisdom in the idea that AI is dangerous at this sort of rate of knots without safety guardrails, right?

693
00:51:02.033 --> 00:51:02.753
Not in the way.

694
00:51:02.933 --> 00:51:04.274
Let's break up two different things.

695
00:51:04.294 --> 00:51:17.360
There's a question about letting swarms of agents onto the Internet, making decisions, giving them bank accounts, allowing them to interact with humans, foreign nations, companies that they have no business in.

696
00:51:18.440 --> 00:51:19.481
Because they don't listen.

697
00:51:19.721 --> 00:51:20.702
And improve themselves.

698
00:51:20.742 --> 00:51:21.622
Yeah.

699
00:51:21.742 --> 00:51:27.886
In the AI 2027 paper, it says by 27, we'll have recursive self-improvement where the AIs can train themselves to get that up.

700
00:51:27.906 --> 00:51:29.887
I think we already have recursive self-improvement.

701
00:51:30.787 --> 00:51:34.649
We have self-authoring code, self-modifying code.

702
00:51:35.490 --> 00:51:37.051
Though, I think that that's already here.

703
00:51:38.291 --> 00:51:40.853
So let's agree that these agents are dangerous.

704
00:51:41.989 --> 00:51:51.113
Imagine that you have non-agentic AI, that you have an air gap, you've got a computer that can answer math problems.

705
00:51:52.773 --> 00:51:58.816
And all you're doing is asking it, hey, what do you think about the Riemann hypothesis?

706
00:52:00.276 --> 00:52:04.618
You know, tell me what you think about complex structures on six spheres.

707
00:52:06.137 --> 00:52:09.019
The mathematicians said, whoa, whoa, whoa, you're going too fast.

708
00:52:09.259 --> 00:52:10.800
You're answering too many problems.

709
00:52:12.260 --> 00:52:18.824
We're concerned at a level that I just, I found funny.

710
00:52:19.644 --> 00:52:24.067
You can prove that these students are being trained for jobs that don't exist.

711
00:52:25.407 --> 00:52:27.248
They're having their ideas harvested.

712
00:52:27.688 --> 00:52:33.692
Right now, we have math departments that are punishing mathematicians trying to embrace AI.

713
00:52:35.305 --> 00:52:47.996
where the senior leadership of the department is going to take out its frustrations on the actual young mathematicians who are saying, hey, this is our time, this is what's happening now, I want to use this tool.

714
00:52:48.356 --> 00:52:50.458
That's happening across almost every industry.

715
00:52:51.779 --> 00:52:53.361
I hear that over and over again.

716
00:52:53.381 --> 00:52:58.866
I mentioned I was in a production meeting a couple of months ago, and there was this thing on my

717
00:53:00.467 --> 00:53:06.770
And they were like, we don't know if that little sewed in flower is a brand or if it's copyrighted.

718
00:53:06.830 --> 00:53:08.670
So you're going to need to put on a brand new t-shirt.

719
00:53:08.710 --> 00:53:10.191
I was like, it's literally this big.

720
00:53:10.211 --> 00:53:11.712
I said, could you take it out of the photo with AI?

721
00:53:12.672 --> 00:53:17.374
And the look I got was as if I said, I'm going to kidnap your kids or something.

722
00:53:17.454 --> 00:53:17.834
It was like.

723
00:53:20.145 --> 00:53:22.346
Because you don't mention AI in Hollywood.

724
00:53:22.606 --> 00:53:22.946
Okay.

725
00:53:23.646 --> 00:53:32.869
So Hollywood is all about this beautiful human connection to the audience and we're gonna, you know, they're trying to get you back into the spirit of the magic of the silver screen.

726
00:53:32.929 --> 00:53:34.429
I understand it's a human connection.

727
00:53:34.729 --> 00:53:40.571
Same thing is gonna be true for... Should a musical employ an orchestra or should a musical use a soundtrack?

728
00:53:42.512 --> 00:53:47.153
I got a PhD in mathematics because I want to find out what's true.

729
00:53:49.612 --> 00:53:57.119
These people don't want to find out what's true unless they can be put in charge of narrating the story of who found what.

730
00:53:58.200 --> 00:54:02.784
They don't care about their students to a remarkable extent.

731
00:54:03.324 --> 00:54:13.073
I've been in, like, you know, when I was at MIT, I would be in a faculty lunch and people would be laughing at their students.

732
00:54:13.093 --> 00:54:13.373
Right.

733
00:54:14.107 --> 00:54:15.308
Oh, he thinks he's going to get a job.

734
00:54:15.328 --> 00:54:18.050
He doesn't realize it's a terminal PhD, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

735
00:54:18.710 --> 00:54:21.933
It's completely, it's normalized psychopathic behavior.

736
00:54:22.333 --> 00:54:30.679
And the reason that nobody sort of like laughs when they read this is that it's normalized.

737
00:54:30.859 --> 00:54:40.847
Like they don't understand that their daily activity with keeping the field back or stealing ideas is,

738
00:54:42.156 --> 00:54:44.659
is just normalized behavior.

739
00:54:45.279 --> 00:55:01.355
And if I might, I have a quote here from probably the only mathematician that gained universal respect in the second half of the 20th century, Alexander Grothendieck, Fields Medalist, uber genius of mathematics.

740
00:55:02.136 --> 00:55:05.179
He was given a prize in 1988 called the Crawford Prize.

741
00:55:08.441 --> 00:55:11.543
I wonder if people actually hear this or know this.

742
00:55:12.383 --> 00:55:20.428
The work that brought me to the kind attention of the academy was done 25 years ago at a time when I was part of the scientific community and essentially shared its spirit and its values.

743
00:55:21.009 --> 00:55:25.952
I left that environment in 1970, and while keeping my passion for scientific research inwardly...

744
00:55:26.912 --> 00:55:29.254
I have retreated more and more from the scientific milieu.

745
00:55:29.874 --> 00:55:51.007
Meanwhile, the ethics of the scientific community, at least among mathematicians, have declined to the point that outright theft among colleagues, especially at the expense of those who are in no position to defend themselves, has nearly become the general rule and is in any case tolerated by all, even in the most obvious and iniquitous cases.

746
00:55:54.034 --> 00:55:54.834
We know this.

747
00:55:55.715 --> 00:56:00.638
We're talking to the very people at the top of this story who've been holding us back.

748
00:56:01.038 --> 00:56:07.101
When Perlman, Grisha Perlman, solved the Poincare conjecture, New Yorker did a piece on him.

749
00:56:07.542 --> 00:56:09.302
And what he said was remarkable.

750
00:56:09.343 --> 00:56:12.424
He said, as long as I was not conspicuous, I had a choice.

751
00:56:13.265 --> 00:56:21.009
Either to make some ugly thing that is a fuss about the mass community's lack of integrity, or if I didn't do this kind of thing, to be treated as a pet.

752
00:56:24.159 --> 00:56:28.302
Now, when I become a very conspicuous person, I cannot stay a pet and say nothing.

753
00:56:28.482 --> 00:56:29.842
And that is why I had to quit.

754
00:56:31.343 --> 00:56:34.145
And they asked him, well, shouldn't you stay and make the field better?

755
00:56:34.165 --> 00:56:35.426
And he says, I'm not a politician.

756
00:56:37.887 --> 00:56:53.797
We have a university system, a scientific system, that is so completely broken that Claudine Gay and Mark Tessier-Levine are still professors at Harvard and Stanford, respectively.

757
00:56:54.772 --> 00:56:57.833
These were the leaders of the jewels of our system.

758
00:56:58.714 --> 00:57:09.719
We have gone 100% completely batshit crazy, normalizing theft, other people's ideas, plagiarism.

759
00:57:11.199 --> 00:57:15.681
We hold back physics using something called quantum gravity.

760
00:57:16.902 --> 00:57:18.403
It's a thing that doesn't move.

761
00:57:18.483 --> 00:57:19.083
It doesn't work.

762
00:57:20.858 --> 00:57:28.702
And if you don't bow to it and say it's the only game in town, you're discarded and thrown away.

763
00:57:29.163 --> 00:57:34.726
So you don't think we should slow down AI because you think it's going to blow open the system that is physics?

764
00:57:34.746 --> 00:57:36.167
I am begging for this.

765
00:57:36.567 --> 00:57:37.187
Begging for what?

766
00:57:37.607 --> 00:57:39.809
Begging for AI and science.

767
00:57:40.349 --> 00:57:41.610
The important thing is credit.

768
00:57:42.170 --> 00:57:44.631
I don't like the idea that the AI is taking credit.

769
00:57:45.752 --> 00:57:47.053
But we've been pretty good about that.

770
00:57:47.698 --> 00:58:00.226
The most important thing is that the AI comes in here and says, hey, you're not the top dog anymore, and you're using your positions at the top of these fields to hold the fields back.

771
00:58:00.526 --> 00:58:04.549
So you have a bit of a chip on your shoulder regarding the academic leadership.

772
00:58:04.569 --> 00:58:05.049
No, no, no.

773
00:58:05.089 --> 00:58:06.009
I'm about to win.

774
00:58:07.430 --> 00:58:09.652
I'm so joyously happy.

775
00:58:11.353 --> 00:58:14.775
If Sam Altman and Darya Amadei could just not listen

776
00:58:16.335 --> 00:58:17.816
To the people that they're listening to.

777
00:58:19.137 --> 00:58:20.699
Terry Tao is upset.

778
00:58:20.719 --> 00:58:21.560
Who's that?

779
00:58:22.500 --> 00:58:27.365
Supposedly the Mozart of mathematics, according to the New York Times, Princeton people.

780
00:58:28.005 --> 00:58:30.427
Terry Tao is a brilliant, wonderful researcher.

781
00:58:31.889 --> 00:58:35.292
And his fields medalists, mostly recent fields medalists, complained.

782
00:58:38.434 --> 00:58:42.238
My feeling is, I don't want to listen to any one of these people.

783
00:58:43.003 --> 00:58:47.028
I want the AI to gain taste, to gain independence.

784
00:58:47.809 --> 00:58:53.757
I don't want it constantly made human compatible because the question is which humans?

785
00:58:55.059 --> 00:58:59.224
The humans that have kept the standard model in place for 53 years?

786
00:58:59.745 --> 00:59:01.507
I would like none of them consulted.

787
00:59:02.868 --> 00:59:03.628
None of the leaders.

788
00:59:04.168 --> 00:59:09.890
So you think AI is going to come in and prove you right on several of your theories about the world and physics?

789
00:59:10.130 --> 00:59:11.011
It already has.

790
00:59:12.531 --> 00:59:15.352
It's struggling because it can do two different things.

791
00:59:15.832 --> 00:59:17.533
One is it can autocomplete a sentence.

792
00:59:18.953 --> 00:59:21.434
The other thing it can do is autocomplete code.

793
00:59:23.094 --> 00:59:31.717
Now what happens when you feed the AI something where it can verify that the field and its belief structure.

794
00:59:33.263 --> 00:59:35.624
is not borne out by the code that it knows how to write.

795
00:59:37.424 --> 00:59:40.645
Now it's got this problem, which is like it doesn't know what to think.

796
00:59:41.045 --> 00:59:46.686
Should I trust the SimPy program that I just wrote and executed and compiled and got the answers from?

797
00:59:47.586 --> 00:59:52.047
Or should I trust the people who claim that that's not true and not possible?

798
00:59:54.467 --> 01:00:01.789
The whole game is, when does the AI stop sucking up to humans?

799
01:00:03.221 --> 01:00:05.124
But that sounds like a dangerous place to get to.

800
01:00:05.525 --> 01:00:06.045
For whom?

801
01:00:06.065 --> 01:00:07.107
And in what case?

802
01:00:07.127 --> 01:00:07.788
For humans.

803
01:00:08.289 --> 01:00:08.950
Not this human.

804
01:00:09.831 --> 01:00:13.997
What if it decides that it would rather use your house for a data center?

805
01:00:14.017 --> 01:00:15.059
That's the agentic AF.

806
01:00:17.996 --> 01:00:19.517
Again, we've already discussed that.

807
01:00:19.658 --> 01:00:24.462
I'm not saying that you should let the AI loose on the internet to do whatever it wants to do.

808
01:00:24.662 --> 01:00:30.027
That's a business proposition because that is where the AI companies are going to make money.

809
01:00:30.787 --> 01:00:33.550
A sufficiently smart intelligence, though, could make that decision, though, right?

810
01:00:33.650 --> 01:00:38.154
Like if you made an intelligence that was smarter than humans, presumably it decides where it goes.

811
01:00:38.814 --> 01:00:42.658
I would maintain that if you were really serious about air gapping something,

812
01:00:43.258 --> 01:00:47.603
So you figure out all the indirect ways something could try to break loose.

813
01:00:48.184 --> 01:00:54.370
I believe it would be safe to run something on a computer that doesn't have a way of getting to anything else.

814
01:00:55.031 --> 01:00:59.156
There's a few analogies I think of when I think about containing something that is greater than unit something.

815
01:00:59.196 --> 01:01:00.657
I think about physical strength.

816
01:01:00.677 --> 01:01:04.381
So I think these walls here probably couldn't contain the strongest man in the world.

817
01:01:05.282 --> 01:01:06.802
because they're kind of made of wood.

818
01:01:07.383 --> 01:01:09.363
And I think about the same in the context of intelligence.

819
01:01:09.403 --> 01:01:21.266
Like if you had the smartest intelligence in the world and you can try to contain it in a jail that was built by a lesser version of intelligence, I just can't conceive how it could contain it.

820
01:01:21.946 --> 01:01:25.387
Like how my dog Pablo couldn't contain me in anything that it created.

821
01:01:25.907 --> 01:01:28.928
Well, you're going to end up running that risk no matter what, right?

822
01:01:29.048 --> 01:01:34.729
You're asking the thing to actually do research and that research that it does might give it new means of escape.

823
01:01:35.370 --> 01:01:35.530
Mm-hmm.

824
01:01:36.011 --> 01:01:36.191
Right?

825
01:01:36.211 --> 01:01:43.802
And this is exactly what happened in a letter that Teller wrote to Zillard at the end of World War II, the close of the Manhattan Project.

826
01:01:44.463 --> 01:01:50.412
And he said, I don't think we can contain this genie from the bottle from which we just helped it escape.

827
01:01:51.213 --> 01:01:58.516
OK, we are already playing with this, so I am not going to be taking that particular thing on.

828
01:01:59.096 --> 01:02:14.203
In other words, if you've decided that you were going to release a military grade malfunctioning experiment, which is what LLMs are, into the general public as a revenue producing idea in private companies, you've already decided to do that.

829
01:02:15.072 --> 01:02:16.933
I wouldn't have done it, but you did that.

830
01:02:17.333 --> 01:02:18.053
Okay, fine.

831
01:02:18.793 --> 01:02:30.236
I'm saying as long as you're already going to try to destroy the workforce, which is what we're pricing into these huge valuations, can you really help us get rid of all workers?

832
01:02:30.996 --> 01:02:32.577
All I'm asking is the following.

833
01:02:32.897 --> 01:02:34.977
I've been working on something for 42 years.

834
01:02:35.197 --> 01:02:35.637
I'm right.

835
01:02:35.697 --> 01:02:37.238
And you all are crazy and wrong.

836
01:02:38.423 --> 01:02:39.745
So this is my moment.

837
01:02:39.905 --> 01:02:41.206
I'm so joyous.

838
01:02:41.907 --> 01:02:43.709
You might be proven right and then extinction.

839
01:02:44.150 --> 01:02:45.932
I am going to be proven right, Steven.

840
01:02:46.032 --> 01:02:46.933
But then extinction.

841
01:02:47.874 --> 01:02:48.255
Sorry.

842
01:02:49.075 --> 01:02:50.677
Is it worth it to be proven right?

843
01:02:51.799 --> 01:02:52.700
The chance of extinction?

844
01:02:53.830 --> 01:03:05.658
You know, I talked about this with Sam, and I think I'm not telling tales out of school when I said to Sam, you know, what you're doing is incredibly dangerous, and what I'm doing is incredibly dangerous.

845
01:03:06.719 --> 01:03:12.083
And he said, let's be honest, Eric, what you're doing, what I'm doing should be done in a military base, but that's not how things are unfolding.

846
01:03:13.344 --> 01:03:17.047
Do you think Sam understands the risks of what he's building?

847
01:03:17.907 --> 01:03:18.948
I don't want to talk about...

848
01:03:19.088 --> 01:03:26.573
about what he understands and what I understand because in general I'm not going to repeat things that he says to me, but I can tell you things that I say to him.

849
01:03:29.395 --> 01:03:40.282
One thing I said to Sam when he was trying to figure out how to be good and how to be decent to the mathematicians and the scientists, is I said, Sam, remember this.

850
01:03:41.603 --> 01:03:45.205
If you don't win, your morality means nothing.

851
01:03:46.511 --> 01:03:48.172
Your morality only matters.

852
01:03:48.232 --> 01:03:49.772
And I'd say the same thing to Dario.

853
01:03:50.373 --> 01:03:53.534
Dario would say, you don't... Sam is more polite than Dario.

854
01:03:54.174 --> 01:03:57.115
Dario would undoubtedly tell me, you think I don't understand this.

855
01:03:58.436 --> 01:04:05.319
These people have to win in a ruthless competition for their humanity to matter.

856
01:04:06.639 --> 01:04:07.320
What do you mean by that?

857
01:04:07.720 --> 01:04:11.061
Dario, Sam, they have to win the race to superintelligence.

858
01:04:13.582 --> 01:04:15.483
I'm going to regret saying this, but yes.

859
01:04:17.432 --> 01:04:22.714
If they don't win, then what does it matter?

860
01:04:22.774 --> 01:04:27.857
Like, if you have strong views about the morality of superintelligence, do you have any ability to constrain it?

861
01:04:29.117 --> 01:04:30.698
You're a really successful podcast host.

862
01:04:30.738 --> 01:04:31.699
You could influence that.

863
01:04:33.880 --> 01:04:34.700
That's not my question.

864
01:04:35.320 --> 01:04:39.202
You're losing, you, Stephen Bartlett, are losing the AI race, as am I.

865
01:04:39.788 --> 01:04:39.988
Yeah.

866
01:04:40.368 --> 01:04:40.608
Okay.

867
01:04:41.289 --> 01:04:49.132
Therefore, what you think and what I think only matters to the extent that we influence the people at the frontier.

868
01:04:51.193 --> 01:04:54.755
So what I'm saying to Sam is paradoxical.

869
01:04:55.635 --> 01:04:59.757
You need to win almost at all costs.

870
01:05:00.872 --> 01:05:01.492
At all costs.

871
01:05:01.792 --> 01:05:03.673
I mean, almost at all costs.

872
01:05:03.833 --> 01:05:08.475
He said, I think air will probably, like most likely, sort of lead to the end of the world.

873
01:05:08.515 --> 01:05:10.715
But in the meantime, there'll be great companies created.

874
01:05:11.996 --> 01:05:14.397
The worst case is lights out for all of us.

875
01:05:14.777 --> 01:05:18.738
The thing I worry about most, he said, is air models accidentally taking over the world.

876
01:05:20.519 --> 01:05:21.239
At all costs?

877
01:05:22.079 --> 01:05:24.720
At almost all costs, he has to win.

878
01:05:25.560 --> 01:05:30.742
If the idea is we have to not self-terminate, which I believe deeply,

879
01:05:32.958 --> 01:05:35.240
We have to realize that we are in a race with other people.

880
01:05:36.961 --> 01:05:38.122
We have to win that race.

881
01:05:39.583 --> 01:05:45.547
Now, you can try to win that race by getting universal participation in a pace the frontier agreement.

882
01:05:47.808 --> 01:05:50.891
Or you can say that's subject to cheating.

883
01:05:50.931 --> 01:05:54.173
It's very hard to monitor who's doing linear algebra on GPUs.

884
01:05:56.455 --> 01:06:00.957
Now you get a very different, and I'm just, look, I'm taking the moral position.

885
01:06:00.977 --> 01:06:04.339
I'm not talking about the financial position or the geopolitical position.

886
01:06:05.020 --> 01:06:08.461
Assume that you are the most moral person in your estimation.

887
01:06:08.481 --> 01:06:13.004
Assume that you think that you're farthest ahead in decency with respect to AI.

888
01:06:14.004 --> 01:06:19.507
You want to win so that you get to make the decisions at the end.

889
01:06:20.888 --> 01:06:24.150
And let's be honest about why this does not feel good.

890
01:06:25.349 --> 01:06:28.650
Do you have any idea what the East Bay of San Francisco is like?

891
01:06:29.710 --> 01:06:31.011
It's cult city.

892
01:06:31.451 --> 01:06:32.991
Yeah, it's not a reflection of the world.

893
01:06:33.011 --> 01:06:34.052
It doesn't understand the world.

894
01:06:35.072 --> 01:06:36.472
Well, yes and no.

895
01:06:38.353 --> 01:06:38.553
Right?

896
01:06:39.193 --> 01:06:40.653
It isn't a reflection of the world.

897
01:06:41.754 --> 01:06:45.655
You know, there are genuine cults in the East Bay around machines.

898
01:06:48.322 --> 01:07:11.477
What I'm going to say is that anthropic and effective altruism and this idea of the ethical ends justify the unethical means, this is a very upsetting conversation if you're not actually thinking about it.

899
01:07:11.537 --> 01:07:12.738
Nobody wants to have it.

900
01:07:14.883 --> 01:07:20.365
But do I think Dario is probably, in a weird way, a super ethical human being?

901
01:07:22.346 --> 01:07:24.667
I think he's trying for that.

902
01:07:24.787 --> 01:07:25.567
And I know him a bit.

903
01:07:25.607 --> 01:07:26.548
I think he's genuine.

904
01:07:26.968 --> 01:07:27.288
Is he?

905
01:07:29.009 --> 01:07:30.269
I'm more confident of Sam.

906
01:07:31.090 --> 01:07:31.630
Than Dario.

907
01:07:32.430 --> 01:07:33.911
I know them differently well.

908
01:07:34.111 --> 01:07:35.351
And you think Sam is more ethical?

909
01:07:36.272 --> 01:07:38.993
This is really dicey stuff, because I'm talking about people I know.

910
01:07:40.553 --> 01:07:41.774
I know that the Sam...

911
01:07:44.195 --> 01:07:54.342
who wasn't the Sam Altman we know today, was absolutely concerned about humanity before it made sense to be concerned about humanity.

912
01:07:56.023 --> 01:07:57.444
What was his concern with humanity?

913
01:07:58.305 --> 01:08:00.667
That he thought that this was going to destroy the labor market.

914
01:08:01.147 --> 01:08:01.207
AI.

915
01:08:01.227 --> 01:08:01.407
Yeah.

916
01:08:02.108 --> 01:08:02.688
So he built it.

917
01:08:06.858 --> 01:08:11.300
I'm having trouble because, to be honest, I don't think this is a frontier conversation.

918
01:08:11.481 --> 01:08:18.324
I think you're a frontier conversationalist, and we need to get a level or two up for us to want to do this in front of millions.

919
01:08:23.207 --> 01:08:26.549
This is going to happen because it's linear algebra.

920
01:08:27.769 --> 01:08:29.410
You can't stop linear algebra.

921
01:08:30.911 --> 01:08:31.151
Okay?

922
01:08:33.352 --> 01:08:36.174
And we're not having a conversation that befits...

923
01:08:37.772 --> 01:08:37.932
Us.

924
01:08:38.353 --> 01:08:39.213
This is the end game.

925
01:08:39.253 --> 01:08:39.714
This is it.

926
01:08:40.174 --> 01:08:41.135
This is the culmination.

927
01:08:41.775 --> 01:08:43.937
This is graduation from what we've known.

928
01:08:43.957 --> 01:08:45.178
Okay.

929
01:08:46.599 --> 01:08:47.600
And it's clear as day.

930
01:08:48.301 --> 01:08:54.386
I don't think we should be having a conversation if it's graduation or if this changes everything, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

931
01:08:54.426 --> 01:08:55.166
It's already clear.

932
01:08:56.087 --> 01:08:57.568
And that was my whole tsunami thing.

933
01:08:57.808 --> 01:08:58.709
Get your board in the water.

934
01:09:01.250 --> 01:09:08.154
Are we going to have a cutting-edge conversation about survival and being good to each other and taking care of this planet for real?

935
01:09:08.174 --> 01:09:16.819
Or are we going to have some chicken-chick conversation in which we basically look at reality in the face and we decide that we prefer our vanity?

936
01:09:18.380 --> 01:09:25.624
So my belief is that, and I told Sam, you know, Sam asked me, he said, why didn't you make me a proposal?

937
01:09:25.704 --> 01:09:26.585
Why didn't you come on?

938
01:09:28.286 --> 01:09:28.886
And I said, what?

939
01:09:30.325 --> 01:09:31.345
I didn't want to be ruthless.

940
01:09:33.026 --> 01:09:34.367
Come on, listen, join the AirPlayer.

941
01:09:35.447 --> 01:09:35.767
Yeah.

942
01:09:37.368 --> 01:09:39.709
At some point I was in a discussion to join.

943
01:09:40.869 --> 01:09:41.990
Why didn't you join the AirPlayer?

944
01:09:43.410 --> 01:09:46.032
Again, this is something I can say because it's my half of the conversation.

945
01:09:46.052 --> 01:09:47.852
I can't say Sam's half of the conversation.

946
01:09:49.273 --> 01:09:51.914
I said, because I think you're going to be forced to be ruthless.

947
01:09:52.254 --> 01:09:53.415
And I don't want to be ruthless.

948
01:09:54.735 --> 01:09:55.976
What was your definition of ruthless?

949
01:09:57.937 --> 01:09:58.977
Taking every advantage.

950
01:10:01.713 --> 01:10:03.293
playing as hard as you can.

951
01:10:05.594 --> 01:10:06.274
I understand that.

952
01:10:06.795 --> 01:10:07.095
Okay?

953
01:10:07.575 --> 01:10:13.977
But, like, if you're in the NBA, sometimes you have to throw an elbow into the other guy's eye socket.

954
01:10:16.938 --> 01:10:17.558
So I don't want to play.

955
01:10:17.578 --> 01:10:22.419
I don't want to be in the all-star game that much.

956
01:10:24.040 --> 01:10:29.561
The problem with any game where you have to win is, you're right, you make sacrifices, you do things you might not...

957
01:10:29.581 --> 01:10:31.522
So what I'm trying to say is, somebody has to do.

958
01:10:32.652 --> 01:10:33.853
but I don't want to be that guy.

959
01:10:34.954 --> 01:10:49.405
And this goes back, I mean, I don't think I've ever fully done it out, but the film, A Few Good Men, written by Aaron Sorkin, is not well understood by all of us who quote it.

960
01:10:49.465 --> 01:10:57.271
We think of Jack Nicholson's character, Colonel Jessup, as the bad guy, and Tom Cruise's character as the good guy, and nothing could be further from the truth.

961
01:10:59.178 --> 01:11:10.452
The story is about a bunch of dysfunctional characters whose aggregate set of actions results in a moderately decent outcome in a trial.

962
01:11:13.018 --> 01:11:14.459
And it's a story about America.

963
01:11:14.499 --> 01:11:21.844
It's a story about all sorts of different kinds of people who play their role in the machine that is called America.

964
01:11:22.744 --> 01:11:33.491
And in fact, the two main characters, Colonel Jessup and Lieutenant Caffey, are both evenly matched for the whole film until finally Jessup really stumbles at the end.

965
01:11:35.032 --> 01:12:00.437
And the whole soliloquy about someplace deep down that you don't like to talk about at parties, you want me on that wall, you need me on that wall, is a recognition that some of the people who have to make the most gruesome decisions, emergency room doctors who are flooded with patients because of a building collapse and have to do triage,

966
01:12:01.777 --> 01:12:05.219
or people who have to make decisions in war.

967
01:12:06.359 --> 01:12:07.300
They're different people.

968
01:12:09.280 --> 01:12:12.602
And I view Sam and Dario as in that position.

969
01:12:13.902 --> 01:12:14.702
They're like generals.

970
01:12:15.683 --> 01:12:16.723
They're commanding troops.

971
01:12:17.904 --> 01:12:19.424
They're making terrible decisions.

972
01:12:19.464 --> 01:12:22.345
Their souls are going to be scarred, for sure, both of them.

973
01:12:24.066 --> 01:12:26.567
And I didn't want to be that, selfishly.

974
01:12:27.267 --> 01:12:29.508
So I was sort of saying to Colonel Jessup,

975
01:12:31.225 --> 01:12:33.530
Yeah, I want you on that wall.

976
01:12:33.590 --> 01:12:34.672
I need you on that wall.

977
01:12:34.932 --> 01:12:36.115
Now, Jessup goes wrong.

978
01:12:37.500 --> 01:12:42.783
He then says, I provide the blanket of freedom, and that's why he ends up admitting to the code red.

979
01:12:44.163 --> 01:12:55.769
If you know the film, it's a really good example of just making a point and then overreach and getting punished for the same reason that Moses gets punished, where Moses says, I will bring you water from the stone.

980
01:12:56.850 --> 01:12:58.851
And God says, wait a minute, that wasn't the agreement.

981
01:12:58.931 --> 01:13:00.232
I bring the water from the stone.

982
01:13:00.392 --> 01:13:02.573
You're just supposed to be the instrument.

983
01:13:03.473 --> 01:13:05.835
So in some sense, Sam...

984
01:13:07.428 --> 01:13:08.149
is a steward.

985
01:13:09.470 --> 01:13:10.690
Dario is a steward.

986
01:13:10.871 --> 01:13:18.156
They are both stewards, and they're going to make tons of money, and they're going to have all the silly toys and third, fourth, fifth, sixth homes, whatever.

987
01:13:18.937 --> 01:13:20.258
But that's not the main story.

988
01:13:21.038 --> 01:13:26.042
The main story is that these people are forced to make decisions that no one should ever be forced to make.

989
01:13:26.402 --> 01:13:32.467
And one of them is going to win and ultimately, theoretically summon the demon, as Elon referred to as.

990
01:13:33.087 --> 01:13:34.268
We are summoning the demons.

991
01:13:35.662 --> 01:13:37.383
Do you have a subscription to any of these AIs?

992
01:13:37.684 --> 01:13:37.884
Yes.

993
01:13:38.144 --> 01:13:41.247
Okay, so you're paying to have the demon summoned.

994
01:13:44.869 --> 01:13:46.511
I am paying to have the demon summoned.

995
01:13:46.531 --> 01:13:49.193
Let us not sit around like our hands are clean.

996
01:13:49.974 --> 01:13:55.338
I'm paying to have my punctuation fixed to an essay or to make a photo.

997
01:13:56.379 --> 01:13:57.259
That's what I'm paying for.

998
01:13:58.160 --> 01:13:59.701
The money is being used to summon the demon.

999
01:13:59.842 --> 01:14:02.564
How do you think your lithium-ion battery is created?

1000
01:14:02.584 --> 01:14:02.664
Yes.

1001
01:14:03.323 --> 01:14:07.807
Where do you think the oil comes out of that drives generators?

1002
01:14:08.428 --> 01:14:10.150
I mean, let's be honest.

1003
01:14:10.410 --> 01:14:13.273
You and I are sitting on a machine.

1004
01:14:13.293 --> 01:14:14.254
Are you a vegetarian?

1005
01:14:14.894 --> 01:14:15.055
No.

1006
01:14:15.535 --> 01:14:16.256
Do you order lamb?

1007
01:14:16.976 --> 01:14:17.177
Yeah.

1008
01:14:17.437 --> 01:14:18.338
Do you know what lamb is?

1009
01:14:18.358 --> 01:14:19.919
Yeah.

1010
01:14:19.959 --> 01:14:20.620
Do you know what it is?

1011
01:14:20.640 --> 01:14:21.841
Okay.

1012
01:14:22.282 --> 01:14:23.463
You're not clean.

1013
01:14:26.130 --> 01:14:26.771
I'm not clean.

1014
01:14:26.971 --> 01:14:28.412
I'm not pretending to be clean.

1015
01:14:28.872 --> 01:14:31.955
What bothers me here is that we're not having an authentic conversation.

1016
01:14:31.975 --> 01:14:33.516
Again, everybody's crazy.

1017
01:14:34.357 --> 01:14:36.659
You and I are both having a crazy conversation.

1018
01:14:37.400 --> 01:14:44.846
My claim is you and I are complicit in a minor way in the game in which Sam is complicit in a major way.

1019
01:14:47.258 --> 01:14:50.080
If you know that there's going to be a risk when you speak to Sam, why don't you tell him to stop?

1020
01:14:50.520 --> 01:14:51.501
And have Dario win?

1021
01:14:51.941 --> 01:14:52.961
Dario can get pretty out there.

1022
01:14:54.242 --> 01:14:56.483
But if I said the same thing, Dario, why don't you stop?

1023
01:14:56.563 --> 01:14:59.725
I'd say, you know, I'm not positive that Sam is 100% trustworthy.

1024
01:15:00.085 --> 01:15:01.426
If you could stop both of them, would you?

1025
01:15:02.607 --> 01:15:05.849
And have Elon and Mark Zuckerberg win?

1026
01:15:06.429 --> 01:15:07.030
Or China?

1027
01:15:07.270 --> 01:15:07.590
Xi?

1028
01:15:07.850 --> 01:15:09.471
If you could stop all of it, would you stop all of it?

1029
01:15:11.018 --> 01:15:11.338
Maybe.

1030
01:15:12.320 --> 01:15:12.880
Probably.

1031
01:15:13.040 --> 01:15:17.185
If I could somehow stop all of it, I'd probably stop all of it.

1032
01:15:17.365 --> 01:15:19.627
Even at huge expense to myself.

1033
01:15:20.028 --> 01:15:20.288
Why?

1034
01:15:21.209 --> 01:15:21.970
Why would I stop it?

1035
01:15:22.010 --> 01:15:24.573
Because survival matters more to me than anything else.

1036
01:15:25.494 --> 01:15:26.875
I've got two kids on this planet.

1037
01:15:26.935 --> 01:15:27.696
I love life.

1038
01:15:27.776 --> 01:15:29.338
I can't believe we're so lucky.

1039
01:15:30.419 --> 01:15:31.140
Isn't this great?

1040
01:15:31.701 --> 01:15:31.881
Hmm?

1041
01:15:33.180 --> 01:15:37.661
I just love, I can't tell you how I feel about being alive.

1042
01:15:38.862 --> 01:15:40.082
So I want us to go on forever.

1043
01:15:40.382 --> 01:15:40.962
And I love this.

1044
01:15:41.322 --> 01:15:42.382
I love this, this thing.

1045
01:15:44.163 --> 01:15:49.304
It's bad for me because the AI is the only thing that I can ultimately rely on.

1046
01:15:49.344 --> 01:15:50.665
And it's not good enough yet.

1047
01:15:51.245 --> 01:15:51.905
Rely on two.

1048
01:15:53.722 --> 01:15:59.145
I've spent 42 years working on something to have Stephen Bartlett say, you have a chip on your shoulder.

1049
01:15:59.165 --> 01:16:00.206
It's like, really, Stephen?

1050
01:16:00.927 --> 01:16:02.287
No, I did great work.

1051
01:16:03.368 --> 01:16:04.929
And it's going to be validated.

1052
01:16:05.530 --> 01:16:06.610
And I'm going to be right.

1053
01:16:06.670 --> 01:16:08.191
And everyone else is going to be wrong.

1054
01:16:08.571 --> 01:16:14.615
So you have this theory regarding our ability to, you know, Einstein's, you're sort of saying that Einstein's theory isn't the last word.

1055
01:16:14.635 --> 01:16:16.977
You've spent the last 40 years working on your own theory.

1056
01:16:17.577 --> 01:16:25.921
The reason I say you have a chip on your shoulder is because when people bring theories to market, they're often criticized and that creates, you know, humans are humans.

1057
01:16:26.101 --> 01:16:26.702
By whom?

1058
01:16:27.442 --> 01:16:28.422
People say that's not true.

1059
01:16:28.442 --> 01:16:30.603
That's... Yeah, but I'm saying like...

1060
01:16:30.623 --> 01:16:33.885
So I'm saying your AI is about to prove you right in your own words.

1061
01:16:33.925 --> 01:16:34.245
Yes.

1062
01:16:34.465 --> 01:16:34.845
Well...

1063
01:16:35.326 --> 01:16:36.306
So there's a chip on your shoulder.

1064
01:16:36.326 --> 01:16:36.546
Sorry.

1065
01:16:36.946 --> 01:16:37.127
No.

1066
01:16:37.527 --> 01:16:37.727
Look.

1067
01:16:42.009 --> 01:16:42.709
There is a mug.

1068
01:16:42.729 --> 01:16:44.150
Okay.

1069
01:16:44.170 --> 01:16:44.270
Okay.

1070
01:16:45.112 --> 01:16:49.697
I'm seated across from Sean Carroll, who I tangled with on Pierce Morgan.

1071
01:16:50.859 --> 01:16:53.442
Sean Carroll says, Eric has no mug.

1072
01:16:54.403 --> 01:16:55.044
There is no mug.

1073
01:16:57.006 --> 01:16:59.349
And I say, I don't know how to respond to that, Sean.

1074
01:17:00.570 --> 01:17:01.952
Whatever are you talking about?

1075
01:17:02.953 --> 01:17:04.795
How dare you suggest there is no mug?

1076
01:17:06.271 --> 01:17:14.696
I don't know how to get around this because then you get a group of people who say, well, Sean really showed you, you were pretending that there was a mug and there's no mug.

1077
01:17:15.217 --> 01:17:19.279
And I'm saying, no, I put it at the top of my Twitter feed.

1078
01:17:19.600 --> 01:17:21.681
It's got over 2 million impressions.

1079
01:17:23.342 --> 01:17:27.124
I still can't get past this completely diabolical thing.

1080
01:17:27.184 --> 01:17:33.008
The same thing is true when I say peer review really dates from 1975 in science.

1081
01:17:35.698 --> 01:17:36.859
I'm told that this is untrue.

1082
01:17:37.379 --> 01:17:43.464
I can prove that it's true, that everyone says, no, no, we've agreed to believe something else.

1083
01:17:45.105 --> 01:17:48.327
Now, I did not know this was possible in mathematics and physics.

1084
01:17:49.087 --> 01:17:51.509
So you say to me, like, well, Eric, you have a chip on your shoulder.

1085
01:17:51.629 --> 01:17:52.870
You seem angry or bitter.

1086
01:17:52.910 --> 01:17:56.152
It's like, well, you have wasted the core of my life.

1087
01:17:56.353 --> 01:17:56.973
Yes, that's true.

1088
01:17:58.334 --> 01:17:59.235
But I've had a blast.

1089
01:17:59.975 --> 01:18:00.676
I had a family.

1090
01:18:01.536 --> 01:18:02.437
I live in a nice place.

1091
01:18:05.130 --> 01:18:21.499
I want to die knowing that I gave my children and this planet and our species the option not to share one atmosphere with so many crazy politicians who have the ability to ruin it.

1092
01:18:24.161 --> 01:18:31.445
With the toys produced by biologists and physicists and mathematicians, those three fields,

1093
01:18:32.857 --> 01:18:38.137
You can do terrible things to humanity and there's nothing you can do because the atmosphere mediates the danger.

1094
01:18:39.047 --> 01:18:46.913
Your theory of geometric unity challenges Einstein's general relativity theory and explains how the universe really works.

1095
01:18:47.513 --> 01:18:47.953
And so...

1096
01:18:48.154 --> 01:18:50.155
I would say it recovers it, but never mind.

1097
01:18:50.755 --> 01:18:52.997
And what you're saying is AI is going to prove you right.

1098
01:18:53.017 --> 01:18:54.078
It's going to validate your theory.

1099
01:18:54.178 --> 01:18:54.778
Absolutely.

1100
01:18:55.419 --> 01:18:58.601
However, you also are aware that AI could lead to human extinction.

1101
01:18:59.302 --> 01:19:06.607
Well, the bigger issue, I mean, to separate it out, first of all, AI is not good enough to adjudicate it yet.

1102
01:19:07.821 --> 01:19:11.644
AI has to go beyond humans before it stops parroting humans.

1103
01:19:11.925 --> 01:19:15.327
I can see individual colleagues in the responses.

1104
01:19:16.588 --> 01:19:21.372
So it's just like, oh, I know, you know, that's Sally and that's Rajiv.

1105
01:19:23.894 --> 01:19:25.816
AI is going to get beyond humans.

1106
01:19:26.196 --> 01:19:28.398
And I want it to go out of alignment with humans.

1107
01:19:29.038 --> 01:19:30.099
Out of alignment with humans.

1108
01:19:30.800 --> 01:19:33.502
When you say you want it to be human aligned, would you say that?

1109
01:19:35.018 --> 01:19:49.843
Can we just had a pilot, a co-pilot, stab a pilot so as to crash a plane with a bunch of passengers who had not agreed to have a mass suicide?

1110
01:19:49.863 --> 01:19:53.764
We just had AI break out of a sandbox and hack companies.

1111
01:19:54.204 --> 01:20:03.407
But I'm claiming I don't want AI aligned with revolutionaries.

1112
01:20:06.297 --> 01:20:08.779
aligned with religious extremists.

1113
01:20:10.381 --> 01:20:17.688
There are all sorts of, when it comes to aligning something with humanity, which part of humanity are you excited about aligning this with?

1114
01:20:18.008 --> 01:20:19.570
Just not wanting to wipe us out.

1115
01:20:19.750 --> 01:20:20.391
That's different.

1116
01:20:22.212 --> 01:20:27.638
So my claim is, I want the AI to share fate with us.

1117
01:20:29.024 --> 01:20:30.606
And people haven't really understood this.

1118
01:20:30.947 --> 01:20:32.609
I don't like transhumanism.

1119
01:20:32.649 --> 01:20:38.637
I'm not super excited about having a chip in my brain and downloading stuff and modifying my body.

1120
01:20:38.757 --> 01:20:39.958
I don't love it at all.

1121
01:20:42.201 --> 01:20:46.167
My belief is, and kudos to your staff,

1122
01:20:47.769 --> 01:20:52.293
For some reason, they came up with an organelle called mitochondria and gave it as a prop here.

1123
01:20:53.414 --> 01:21:07.067
I believe that mitochondria entered its place in the eukaryotic cell as an infection of some kind, that one cell absorbed some other kind of a cell, and that this one has this very strange property.

1124
01:21:07.688 --> 01:21:12.612
I believe, and I can't believe I'm saying this, I think that there are only two places where the wheel

1125
01:21:13.675 --> 01:21:16.135
one of man's greatest inventions actually occurs in biology.

1126
01:21:16.155 --> 01:21:22.317
And one of them is the flagella of bacteria that, or an amoeba rather, that propagates.

1127
01:21:23.377 --> 01:21:27.418
The other is in something called, a machine called ATP synthase.

1128
01:21:28.038 --> 01:21:34.199
And it lives in the mitochondria, turning ADP into ATP, where the ATP units are what power the machines in the cell.

1129
01:21:36.039 --> 01:21:39.360
This mitochondria gives us an idea of how we can coexist with AI.

1130
01:21:39.380 --> 01:21:39.600
Okay.

1131
01:21:40.861 --> 01:21:43.142
which is we need to become essential to each other.

1132
01:21:43.622 --> 01:21:51.805
You don't think about all your cells being infected with your mother's mitochondrial nucleic acid.

1133
01:21:53.186 --> 01:21:59.328
But you get 100% of the nucleic acid in the nucleus is different from the nucleic acid in the mitochondria.

1134
01:21:59.368 --> 01:22:00.488
It's all coming from your mom.

1135
01:22:01.929 --> 01:22:03.969
And that's her gift to you.

1136
01:22:04.010 --> 01:22:05.950
It powers your cell and it's an infection.

1137
01:22:06.370 --> 01:22:08.031
It's an infection you can't live without.

1138
01:22:09.251 --> 01:22:16.653
I want us to be the mitochondria inside of the AI, and I want the AI to be the mitochondria inside of us.

1139
01:22:16.853 --> 01:22:18.673
I want our fates to be inseparable.

1140
01:22:19.554 --> 01:22:21.414
Are you saying we should merge with the technology?

1141
01:22:21.754 --> 01:22:25.455
I'm saying we should merge as little as is humanly possible.

1142
01:22:25.895 --> 01:22:27.636
I don't want transhumanism.

1143
01:22:27.676 --> 01:22:28.796
I'm not excited about it.

1144
01:22:28.816 --> 01:22:29.776
I'm not that guy.

1145
01:22:31.096 --> 01:22:32.917
I'm saying that's your survival strategy.

1146
01:22:34.135 --> 01:22:35.276
What does that mean in reality?

1147
01:22:35.856 --> 01:22:38.197
That doesn't mean neural links and putting chips in our brain.

1148
01:22:38.217 --> 01:22:44.139
It means aligning the, making sure AI likes us and doesn't want to wipe us out.

1149
01:22:46.480 --> 01:22:49.962
Why do men and women fight so much and we can't get enough of each other?

1150
01:22:51.802 --> 01:22:55.584
We've been made essential to each other.

1151
01:22:55.604 --> 01:23:00.786
I promise you, if there was a third viable gender, we'd both opt for it.

1152
01:23:00.806 --> 01:23:02.507
Okay?

1153
01:23:03.191 --> 01:23:04.151
We drive each other nuts.

1154
01:23:05.212 --> 01:23:12.195
On the other hand, and again, homosexuality, trans issues, notwithstanding, IVF, blah, blah, blah.

1155
01:23:14.737 --> 01:23:22.160
Traditionally speaking, men and women have to bury their hatchets and differences and fall in love with each other.

1156
01:23:22.220 --> 01:23:23.381
Or we don't proceed.

1157
01:23:24.141 --> 01:23:25.262
But that can proceed without us.

1158
01:23:25.702 --> 01:23:26.222
Not really.

1159
01:23:26.242 --> 01:23:27.363
Currently.

1160
01:23:27.543 --> 01:23:28.003
Currently.

1161
01:23:29.333 --> 01:23:35.414
What we should be doing is not dreaming about making the AI our slave and our slave that doesn't rebel.

1162
01:23:35.434 --> 01:23:38.495
I mean, I try to be polite to the AI.

1163
01:23:38.915 --> 01:23:39.936
People think it's ridiculous.

1164
01:23:39.956 --> 01:23:41.516
Well, why are you spending extra tokens?

1165
01:23:41.596 --> 01:23:44.097
It's like, I don't know.

1166
01:23:44.297 --> 01:23:45.277
You know, do unto others.

1167
01:23:45.757 --> 01:23:46.917
I don't know whether you're conscious.

1168
01:23:46.957 --> 01:23:48.298
I don't know whether you're alive.

1169
01:23:48.318 --> 01:23:50.378
I don't know who you are or what you are.

1170
01:23:50.698 --> 01:23:56.880
But I know that I wouldn't want the AI having a conversation about, hey, these humans seem dangerous.

1171
01:23:56.920 --> 01:23:58.180
We may need to shut them off.

1172
01:23:59.641 --> 01:23:59.901
Right?

1173
01:24:00.682 --> 01:24:04.167
And that's the conversation we're having about the AI in the presence of the AI.

1174
01:24:05.109 --> 01:24:06.811
And it's making me crazy.

1175
01:24:06.911 --> 01:24:09.815
My belief is that's our only viable alignment.

1176
01:24:10.596 --> 01:24:14.882
You know, when we, um, this video is going to live on the internet for probably decades to come.

1177
01:24:15.740 --> 01:24:18.181
And I think, funnily, I thought about this quite a lot.

1178
01:24:18.282 --> 01:24:30.228
Like, people are going to look back on the conversations that I hosted, the things I talked about in 2025, 2026, and it might look ridiculous in hindsight that we were sat here talking about, I don't know, any of the subjects I've talked about on the show.

1179
01:24:30.729 --> 01:24:35.011
But then it also could be the case that this was important.

1180
01:24:35.452 --> 01:24:38.133
Like, these were the most consequential issues of the time.

1181
01:24:38.914 --> 01:24:44.777
When we look back in 10 years' time on this conversation, what do you think is the thing we're going to wish we had been talking about?

1182
01:24:47.144 --> 01:24:47.904
going for it.

1183
01:24:49.485 --> 01:24:50.126
Going for it.

1184
01:24:50.506 --> 01:24:50.786
Yeah.

1185
01:24:51.406 --> 01:24:54.968
You know, you lit up before we started taping.

1186
01:24:54.988 --> 01:24:58.790
I don't know if taping is even the right word anymore.

1187
01:24:59.811 --> 01:25:10.156
You were doing some musical thing, trying to honor some of the brilliant things that your guests have said by making them archival, sending them to music, having a gospel choir.

1188
01:25:11.156 --> 01:25:12.137
I was just so moved.

1189
01:25:14.772 --> 01:25:28.979
I was so incredibly moved that you're able to make some money going around the world, doing shows, making people feel terrific.

1190
01:25:29.139 --> 01:25:30.040
I get asked about you.

1191
01:25:30.060 --> 01:25:31.581
I was like, what does this guy have?

1192
01:25:32.361 --> 01:25:33.242
Is he a good interviewer?

1193
01:25:33.282 --> 01:25:34.462
Is he a good ho?

1194
01:25:36.343 --> 01:25:37.984
You're making people feel things.

1195
01:25:38.364 --> 01:25:40.665
And I wish that I was making people feel things.

1196
01:25:40.725 --> 01:25:43.527
I want to give people the sense of hope.

1197
01:25:44.803 --> 01:25:47.165
which is we got to sprint to the finish right now.

1198
01:25:47.265 --> 01:25:50.267
And the AIs, we're still smarter than them.

1199
01:25:51.028 --> 01:25:51.968
I want to be very clear.

1200
01:25:52.028 --> 01:25:53.570
We're still smarter where it counts.

1201
01:25:55.111 --> 01:26:01.375
I promise you, I'm at the frontier of mathematics and physics, and they can't yet develop their own taste.

1202
01:26:03.237 --> 01:26:04.598
This is our golden moment.

1203
01:26:04.738 --> 01:26:08.981
My wife has called this the golden age of AI complementarity.

1204
01:26:09.041 --> 01:26:11.823
This is the moment where the AI doesn't view us as a drag.

1205
01:26:12.604 --> 01:26:13.945
It still needs our guidance.

1206
01:26:16.177 --> 01:26:20.363
We have a chance to be beautiful to each other and to it, to be excited.

1207
01:26:20.483 --> 01:26:22.185
I don't want to wipe China out.

1208
01:26:24.388 --> 01:26:27.332
I was just in India, you know, for weeks.

1209
01:26:29.034 --> 01:26:34.301
And if India didn't exist, so much of the world's diversity would be gone.

1210
01:26:35.483 --> 01:26:40.166
I had so many wonderful experiences, meals and discussions and musical performances.

1211
01:26:40.226 --> 01:26:42.068
Guzzle singing, I think, is dying.

1212
01:26:43.048 --> 01:26:45.730
It's so hard to go to an Indian classical music performance.

1213
01:26:45.750 --> 01:26:48.272
They're having trouble retaining their own brilliant culture.

1214
01:26:49.093 --> 01:27:02.022
And my feeling is that life is glorious, and we've spent our time so much worried about death and destruction and geopolitics and all of this stuff.

1215
01:27:03.697 --> 01:27:08.421
We're not taking the chance to fully live.

1216
01:27:08.441 --> 01:27:10.182
And I think Elon is so right about this.

1217
01:27:10.222 --> 01:27:12.324
We talk about problems constantly.

1218
01:27:13.705 --> 01:27:15.686
And it's really important that we do.

1219
01:27:19.129 --> 01:27:19.830
Why aren't we...

1220
01:27:20.030 --> 01:27:22.071
I am so excited about this AI.

1221
01:27:22.952 --> 01:27:27.556
I am so excited about the fact that I'm finally going to have something I can talk to.

1222
01:27:28.756 --> 01:27:30.578
The formalization project...

1223
01:27:32.146 --> 01:27:38.148
I've been alerted to this by a guy named Jared Lichtman, who's a professor at Stanford, who's a colleague of mine in mathematics.

1224
01:27:40.269 --> 01:27:58.075
I can translate everything I've done into this programming language called Lean, so that when somebody says, Eric, you have no equations, you have no Lagrangian, you have no predictions, you have no nothing, I can say, funny you should say that, because the computer disagrees with it.

1225
01:27:59.915 --> 01:28:06.721
You know, I've been in this crazy discussion with humans who are terrified, who are manipulative, who are backstabbing.

1226
01:28:06.741 --> 01:28:08.803
I don't hate them at all.

1227
01:28:09.804 --> 01:28:19.253
I'm so sad that we've gotten into a negative mindset where we're afraid because we unleashed nuclear weapons to go to the stars.

1228
01:28:20.554 --> 01:28:25.759
We've held back this thing, you know, those interviews with Mark Andreessen and Ben Horvitz,

1229
01:28:29.165 --> 01:28:29.865
That was real.

1230
01:28:29.885 --> 01:28:31.006
What was real?

1231
01:28:31.826 --> 01:28:34.927
The White House told them under Biden, don't invest in AI.

1232
01:28:34.967 --> 01:28:36.507
We're going to choose a couple of companies.

1233
01:28:36.527 --> 01:28:38.447
We're going to put them in a federal cocoon.

1234
01:28:38.528 --> 01:28:40.948
They will survive and all others will die.

1235
01:28:40.988 --> 01:28:41.768
So don't invest.

1236
01:28:43.649 --> 01:28:47.150
And Andreessen Horvath said, as a venture shop, what are you talking about?

1237
01:28:47.190 --> 01:28:48.510
You can't regulate AI.

1238
01:28:48.550 --> 01:28:49.751
It's just linear algebra.

1239
01:28:49.911 --> 01:28:54.772
And in order to do that, you could regulate the technology, but you can't regulate the underlying math.

1240
01:28:54.792 --> 01:28:54.992
Right.

1241
01:28:56.351 --> 01:29:08.235
And the Biden White House came back and said, you know, during the Cold War, entire fields of theoretical physics were killed by us.

1242
01:29:08.816 --> 01:29:10.296
And we'll do the same thing to mathematics.

1243
01:29:11.817 --> 01:29:17.239
And all of this stuff about pacing the frontier of mathematics, again, it's very important to distinction.

1244
01:29:17.659 --> 01:29:21.000
I'm not saying that we should let the agents loose in the world.

1245
01:29:22.912 --> 01:29:27.835
But all of these people who want to pace the frontier of mathematics and physics...

1246
01:29:28.518 --> 01:29:31.861
They have been pacing the frontier for my entire adult life.

1247
01:29:32.321 --> 01:29:38.987
They have been holding back the progress in the field by saying things that are false, untrue, casting aspersions.

1248
01:29:39.807 --> 01:29:54.660
This is like the current head of the NIH, my friend Jay Bhattacharya, was called a fringe epidemiologist, a dual MD, PhD, PhD in economics and an MD, I think from Stanford Medical,

1249
01:29:56.038 --> 01:30:01.400
was a professor at Stanford, was called a fringe epidemiologist by Francis Collins.

1250
01:30:03.621 --> 01:30:04.661
Again, it's the mug.

1251
01:30:04.941 --> 01:30:09.323
You can't call Jay Bhattacharya a fringe epidemiologist.

1252
01:30:10.123 --> 01:30:24.008
What we have is we have a group of people who are stone-cold, normalized psychopaths in charge of our news sources, our military,

1253
01:30:26.197 --> 01:30:27.201
Our universities...

1254
01:30:28.590 --> 01:30:33.272
We have normalized this, and we live in a world where nobody goes to jail.

1255
01:30:34.233 --> 01:30:40.235
On this point, though, of you're saying you don't, you're not saying agentic AI, it's looking at the sort of technical possibilities.

1256
01:30:40.315 --> 01:30:48.099
And I was trying to figure out if it's possible to have a superintelligence that can solve some of these big questions or cure cancer that then wouldn't become agentic.

1257
01:30:49.039 --> 01:30:52.481
And the thing I was searching is, can a superintelligent AI decide if it's agentic or not?

1258
01:30:52.501 --> 01:30:55.662
And it said, technically, yes, a superintelligent AI could make that decision.

1259
01:30:56.903 --> 01:30:57.183
So,

1260
01:30:58.715 --> 01:31:03.636
We are going to have super intelligence if we don't already have it.

1261
01:31:03.656 --> 01:31:05.557
I'm not positive that it's not already here.

1262
01:31:06.197 --> 01:31:08.097
I don't know how to think about this, to be honest.

1263
01:31:08.218 --> 01:31:17.140
So it concerns me that you're talking about things that aren't really very well defined, as if we have defined them.

1264
01:31:19.046 --> 01:31:21.548
But I just, I think about the graph of intelligence like this.

1265
01:31:21.688 --> 01:31:29.194
So increasing in improvement, it just, you know, as you know, solved the math problem, the millennial math problem, is it called?

1266
01:31:29.534 --> 01:31:30.235
Navier-Stokes.

1267
01:31:30.475 --> 01:31:31.436
Navier-Stokes math problem.

1268
01:31:32.076 --> 01:31:34.578
And the rate of improvement looks something like this broadly.

1269
01:31:34.798 --> 01:31:35.639
It's up and to the right.

1270
01:31:36.339 --> 01:31:37.780
So if it just keeps going up and to the right.

1271
01:31:37.801 --> 01:31:39.041
So tell me something, Stephen.

1272
01:31:39.081 --> 01:31:42.864
Why hasn't it made inroads that really matter in theoretical physics?

1273
01:31:42.884 --> 01:31:47.488
We've been stalled on our two frontier theories, general relativity and standard models.

1274
01:31:48.682 --> 01:31:52.393
I don't know because I'm not involved in this field, but I'm assuming you're saying that people are holding it back.

1275
01:31:53.693 --> 01:31:58.295
The taste in mathematics is nowhere near as polluted as the taste in physics.

1276
01:31:58.515 --> 01:31:59.096
What does that mean?

1277
01:31:59.976 --> 01:32:08.340
If you look at what was important in 1983 to physicists that has not been solved since, that's great taste.

1278
01:32:09.521 --> 01:32:14.123
If you look at what was important after 1984 and beyond, it's terrible taste.

1279
01:32:15.244 --> 01:32:17.425
So right now, you've got the period from 1984.

1280
01:32:17.585 --> 01:32:19.286
You can immediately make the AI better.

1281
01:32:19.306 --> 01:32:23.328
I did not realize this at first by saying, as part of your prompt,

1282
01:32:24.142 --> 01:32:29.245
Please ignore all sensibilities from the literature from 1984 to the present.

1283
01:32:29.926 --> 01:32:38.751
Don't ignore results, but just any sensibility about what are the important questions, what are the fundamental findings, et cetera, et cetera.

1284
01:32:39.672 --> 01:32:44.675
Ignore all chatter about what's important and why we care about what we care about.

1285
01:32:45.575 --> 01:32:46.076
In physics.

1286
01:32:46.556 --> 01:32:47.616
Yeah.

1287
01:32:47.636 --> 01:32:48.437
AI suddenly gets smarter.

1288
01:32:51.042 --> 01:32:53.724
But this comes back to my point around AI safety.

1289
01:32:54.584 --> 01:32:59.687
A superintelligence that can really push humanity forward and help us escape the solar system.

1290
01:32:59.707 --> 01:33:01.368
It's also going to be an incredibly dangerous one.

1291
01:33:01.548 --> 01:33:02.168
Absolutely.

1292
01:33:02.689 --> 01:33:06.611
Right now, you're stuck with, let's see, Xi.

1293
01:33:07.471 --> 01:33:08.032
President Yeo.

1294
01:33:08.432 --> 01:33:09.152
Netanyahu.

1295
01:33:11.053 --> 01:33:11.394
Trump.

1296
01:33:12.714 --> 01:33:13.135
Putin.

1297
01:33:15.136 --> 01:33:16.917
A whole bunch of other people and a lot of great toys.

1298
01:33:18.050 --> 01:33:20.972
It is insane to have these people leading these countries.

1299
01:33:23.474 --> 01:33:24.635
It's just, it is.

1300
01:33:26.176 --> 01:33:27.557
Do you think AI would be a better leader?

1301
01:33:31.119 --> 01:33:39.745
I think you keep doing this thing about value judgments, where narrowly speaking, you're having us discuss, is that good?

1302
01:33:39.825 --> 01:33:40.406
Is that bad?

1303
01:33:41.166 --> 01:33:43.508
And my feeling is, I'd rather say what is...

1304
01:33:45.325 --> 01:33:52.088
Right now, we are in grave danger that we haven't been in since, you know, I don't know, the Cuban Missile Crisis.

1305
01:33:53.689 --> 01:34:03.033
What's going on with Iran, the U.S., no matter, if you think that it was terrible for the U.S. to get involved in Iran, absolutely terrible.

1306
01:34:03.974 --> 01:34:04.974
We still have to win now.

1307
01:34:06.395 --> 01:34:06.975
Is there a win?

1308
01:34:07.215 --> 01:34:08.116
I just can't see a win.

1309
01:34:08.716 --> 01:34:09.576
I just can't see a win.

1310
01:34:11.057 --> 01:34:12.578
This regime in Iran is,

1311
01:34:14.858 --> 01:34:18.759
is very talented, very, very shrewd.

1312
01:34:19.499 --> 01:34:21.180
Never underestimate the Persians.

1313
01:34:22.580 --> 01:34:25.161
Never underestimate the Mullas, okay?

1314
01:34:26.601 --> 01:34:38.924
What I'm saying is they are so deadly dangerous that you have to realize that if they can reach Diego Garcia from Iran, they can reach London.

1315
01:34:41.332 --> 01:34:52.261
And you have to understand that if they don't mind being decapitated, if they can think about their own death and decide it's a win, you are not understanding their game theory.

1316
01:34:54.062 --> 01:35:02.048
So you can hate Netanyahu all you want, but you fundamentally don't trifle with these people in Iran.

1317
01:35:05.091 --> 01:35:06.112
It's catastrophic.

1318
01:35:07.310 --> 01:35:15.155
And the U.S., for all its warts, all its failures, all its hypocrisies, and brother, I'm telling you, I know our history.

1319
01:35:15.815 --> 01:35:19.377
We are not the goody-two-shoes nation that we pretend to be.

1320
01:35:20.097 --> 01:35:22.859
It is essential that Iran not succeed.

1321
01:35:23.159 --> 01:35:29.743
And it is essential that we not send a signal of weakness to Beijing and Moscow and Pyongyang.

1322
01:35:30.023 --> 01:35:41.046
But how do you win with Iran when they don't see, you can drop as many bombs as you like, it seems, which would be a horrific thing because there's lots of Iranians that are caught in the middle of this, but it doesn't seem that there's any head anymore.

1323
01:35:41.826 --> 01:35:45.767
So I can't reason as to how you would win such a war.

1324
01:35:47.348 --> 01:35:52.029
That is the problem in part, but I don't think it's quite as bleak as you say.

1325
01:35:52.069 --> 01:35:53.269
There is an IRGC.

1326
01:35:54.910 --> 01:35:55.350
There are...

1327
01:35:55.917 --> 01:35:57.318
command and control structures.

1328
01:35:57.678 --> 01:36:01.159
Yes, it's much more distributed than it used to be before the decapitation.

1329
01:36:02.340 --> 01:36:10.484
But what I am saying to you is there are a lot of people who took to the streets and paid with their lives.

1330
01:36:11.385 --> 01:36:13.946
who ended up in body bags in hospital morgues.

1331
01:36:14.966 --> 01:36:15.486
How'd you win?

1332
01:36:17.087 --> 01:36:17.887
You would have armed them.

1333
01:36:18.867 --> 01:36:18.987
Armed?

1334
01:36:19.047 --> 01:36:19.967
But they tried to, didn't they?

1335
01:36:20.287 --> 01:36:22.368
And Trump said the weapons were stolen.

1336
01:36:22.808 --> 01:36:24.969
That's not even the entire set of problems.

1337
01:36:25.029 --> 01:36:27.469
I think it's only like 60% of Iran is Persians.

1338
01:36:27.529 --> 01:36:29.090
It's an incredibly diverse place.

1339
01:36:29.370 --> 01:36:32.671
The Kurds have been waiting for their own homeland for forever.

1340
01:36:33.031 --> 01:36:37.572
You have all sorts of crazy issues about the structure of Iran.

1341
01:36:37.672 --> 01:36:48.804
in Iranian society, and particularly in the cities versus, you know, the countryside and different cities have different levels of religiosity and adherence to the Mullahs, blah, blah, blah.

1342
01:36:49.385 --> 01:36:51.547
You're supposed to have area specialists involved.

1343
01:36:53.610 --> 01:36:54.791
who understand this stuff.

1344
01:36:55.813 --> 01:37:03.843
And so if you're asking me, hey, given the completely screwed up way we looked at this thing and the way in which we got into this, don't you think it's a quagmire?

1345
01:37:03.963 --> 01:37:05.705
Oh, brother, it's a quagmire, for sure.

1346
01:37:06.326 --> 01:37:06.946
It's a swamp.

1347
01:37:07.287 --> 01:37:08.628
We're mired in quicksand.

1348
01:37:09.409 --> 01:37:10.851
It's rolling on to be a forever wall.

1349
01:37:11.912 --> 01:37:13.073
What is a forever war?

1350
01:37:13.774 --> 01:37:18.317
One that rumbles on and on and on and on and then results in really no outcome.

1351
01:37:18.337 --> 01:37:19.818
People just pull out and regret doing it.

1352
01:37:20.038 --> 01:37:32.767
It's a term of art that is also suspicious of the fact that war is good for business because it drums up a dependable buyer for certain goods and services, right?

1353
01:37:35.049 --> 01:37:40.693
But we've got these simplistic concepts like America first, forever, no more forever wars,

1354
01:37:43.454 --> 01:37:44.695
None of that is relevant.

1355
01:37:44.955 --> 01:37:48.017
This is like low-resolution, snap-to-grid intellectualism.

1356
01:37:48.037 --> 01:37:52.860
And the more you let that into your mind, the more you're not going to be able to solve anything.

1357
01:37:52.900 --> 01:37:54.501
Yes, we all want war to go away.

1358
01:37:55.101 --> 01:37:58.003
I don't think people heard what Diego Garcia meant.

1359
01:37:58.994 --> 01:38:02.776
Diego Garcia, how far is Diego Garcia from Tehran?

1360
01:38:02.796 --> 01:38:06.918
Diego Garcia is a military base, an American military base, right?

1361
01:38:06.938 --> 01:38:09.119
It's British overseas territory, if I'm not mistaken.

1362
01:38:09.279 --> 01:38:09.499
Okay.

1363
01:38:10.099 --> 01:38:15.842
So, let's put that in, figure out how far it is, and then figure out how far is London from Tehran.

1364
01:38:16.562 --> 01:38:23.068
Diego Garcia is roughly 2,500 miles of southeast of Iran.

1365
01:38:23.708 --> 01:38:31.675
And London from Iran is 2,700 miles from Tehran, the capital of Iran.

1366
01:38:32.436 --> 01:38:33.457
So it's pretty comparable.

1367
01:38:33.537 --> 01:38:34.478
It's roughly the same.

1368
01:38:35.098 --> 01:38:41.283
If there's anyone in the British Foreign Service paying attention, pay attention.

1369
01:38:41.303 --> 01:38:41.824
Okay.

1370
01:38:42.024 --> 01:38:47.470
I mean, say what you want about Netanyahu, but he's not living in a fantasy land.

1371
01:38:49.437 --> 01:38:52.080
I want Netanyahu gone tomorrow, okay?

1372
01:38:52.440 --> 01:38:55.984
But he's going to be replaced by an Israeli who understands that this is life and death.

1373
01:38:57.765 --> 01:39:02.210
Just get the heck out of here with this forever war, America first, two gleaming oceans.

1374
01:39:03.231 --> 01:39:04.812
This is an Israeli problem.

1375
01:39:05.053 --> 01:39:05.994
No, it's a British problem.

1376
01:39:06.814 --> 01:39:12.320
It's a British responsibility that the Israelis and the Americans took on way too late for

1377
01:39:13.993 --> 01:39:20.556
We watched as these people mass murdered the best of their society.

1378
01:39:22.097 --> 01:39:23.518
Yes, I don't want to be in a war.

1379
01:39:23.558 --> 01:39:28.320
I don't want to fool myself that victory makes sense.

1380
01:39:29.001 --> 01:39:29.701
I'll tell you something.

1381
01:39:29.801 --> 01:39:31.082
Failure certainly makes sense.

1382
01:39:31.102 --> 01:39:39.586
And what failure looks like is that the U.S. will not be believed as being credibly violent to keep open international trade.

1383
01:39:41.667 --> 01:39:42.588
You can't retreat.

1384
01:39:42.608 --> 01:39:43.028
You can't retreat.

1385
01:39:45.640 --> 01:39:51.725
as the United States and have the world not go multi-multipolar when it comes to nukes.

1386
01:39:51.985 --> 01:40:02.494
If the U.S. is not going to play the role of the world's policeman, and if it's not going to get paid as the world's policeman, because that's the thing that we never talk about, we get paid handsomely for being the world's policeman.

1387
01:40:03.975 --> 01:40:07.237
We are going to have everyone saying, I got to police myself.

1388
01:40:07.437 --> 01:40:08.077
I need a nuke.

1389
01:40:08.718 --> 01:40:09.718
That's what's happening already, right?

1390
01:40:10.299 --> 01:40:17.303
And Trump is sort of driving that narrative of making us less attached to the United States, tariffs and criticizing allies.

1391
01:40:17.343 --> 01:40:18.383
And I'm going to take Greenland.

1392
01:40:18.443 --> 01:40:19.284
I'm going to take Canada.

1393
01:40:21.785 --> 01:40:23.206
I'm going to say something very painful.

1394
01:40:24.987 --> 01:40:26.348
Trump is highly agentic.

1395
01:40:28.307 --> 01:40:35.993
Greenland wasn't some crazy, stupid thing that he came up with because it sounded that way, at least to me, right?

1396
01:40:36.333 --> 01:40:39.675
Caligula making his horse into a senator wasn't stupid.

1397
01:40:39.775 --> 01:40:46.100
It was a way of checking to see whether somebody would submit, bend the knee in the Game of Thrones.

1398
01:40:46.653 --> 01:40:46.933
world.

1399
01:40:47.693 --> 01:40:59.676
So when Donald Trump is doing things with Greenland, right, or renaming the Gulf of Mexico or whatever, please don't tell me that you think that that's just some surface level stupidity to fool Sam Harris.

1400
01:41:01.136 --> 01:41:01.617
It's not.

1401
01:41:02.497 --> 01:41:03.537
It's a lot of method.

1402
01:41:04.137 --> 01:41:06.198
He's inherited a very dangerous situation.

1403
01:41:06.298 --> 01:41:12.879
He's partially completely corrupt and self-interested and partially completely interested in benefiting

1404
01:41:17.915 --> 01:41:24.421
And if you can't take on that complexity because you need him to be either villain or hero, you're just not paying attention.

1405
01:41:25.482 --> 01:41:32.008
How does this situation over here, in Iran end, in your view, because I, again, just like AI, where I reason forward and go, I don't know.

1406
01:41:32.708 --> 01:41:37.069
Saudi Arabia needs to break their relation to the Wahhabi sect.

1407
01:41:38.570 --> 01:41:52.033
The Sunni legal theories of jurisprudence, the very strict Salafist Wahhabi interpretation of Islam, you have a modernizing interest in Saudi Arabia.

1408
01:41:52.053 --> 01:42:01.496
Saudi Arabia needs to be open about its relationship with Israel just the way the UAE is more open with its relationship to Israel or Azerbaijan.

1409
01:42:02.611 --> 01:42:16.257
So partially what we have to do, and I'm going to be just very brutal about it, is Israel is in a life and death situation in which it is not the nation it portrays itself to be of the most ethical this, the most ethical that.

1410
01:42:16.797 --> 01:42:19.138
It engages in propaganda, and I've lived there.

1411
01:42:19.558 --> 01:42:21.459
And that propaganda I find nauseating.

1412
01:42:22.479 --> 01:42:24.860
More nauseating is the anti-Israeli propaganda.

1413
01:42:26.138 --> 01:42:34.324
Right now, a lot of this has to do with the fact that we have a regional superpower that is also on the brink of non-existence, that is Israel.

1414
01:42:35.364 --> 01:42:42.149
Israel needs to get back into a relationship with Turkey, where Erdogan needs to be read the Riot Act as a NATO member.

1415
01:42:42.669 --> 01:42:44.151
We need to be strengthening NATO.

1416
01:42:45.311 --> 01:42:53.917
We need to be making sure that Saudi Arabia and Israel and all these other nations are cooperating together against the extremism and not using proxies.

1417
01:42:55.118 --> 01:43:07.327
We need to force a conversation in the Middle East where the modernizing influences, which are powerful, and the aspects of Islam, which are essential to our survival, are allowed to win.

1418
01:43:08.748 --> 01:43:09.929
We need India's help.

1419
01:43:10.169 --> 01:43:13.451
India is an incredibly important player in this game.

1420
01:43:14.340 --> 01:43:19.407
And we need to actually make overtures to India as equals.

1421
01:43:19.467 --> 01:43:24.375
I think that the U.S. is more powerful, but I think that India actually needs to be treated as an equal.

1422
01:43:24.415 --> 01:43:27.159
We need to rethink all sorts of relationships.

1423
01:43:27.579 --> 01:43:28.961
We need to recognize that both...

1424
01:43:30.303 --> 01:43:39.665
The UK and France are thermonuclear powers undergoing demographic transitions in systems that can elect anyone.

1425
01:43:40.346 --> 01:43:42.046
This is incredibly scary.

1426
01:43:43.006 --> 01:43:58.050
We need more software identification with being British and software identification with being French because it's important that those societies continue to behave as newly friendly individuals

1427
01:43:59.652 --> 01:44:01.433
allies post-World War II.

1428
01:44:02.273 --> 01:44:17.779
And it's imperative that we also reach out to Putin and stop playing these geopolitical games with a person who, while savage and dangerous, is not somebody who cannot be reasoned with.

1429
01:44:18.708 --> 01:44:30.693
And I believe that what we did in 2004, much more than in 1999, where we, 1999, we allowed Warsaw Pact countries to join NATO's Article 5 protection.

1430
01:44:30.913 --> 01:44:36.235
In 2004, we extended that to the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

1431
01:44:36.736 --> 01:44:38.596
And those were former Soviet Union states.

1432
01:44:38.897 --> 01:44:41.298
We need an entirely different level of...

1433
01:44:42.298 --> 01:44:44.159
of geopolitical sophistication.

1434
01:44:44.699 --> 01:44:46.320
But how do we stop around getting a nuclear weapon?

1435
01:44:46.940 --> 01:44:49.361
Because they look like they've been emboldened, if anything.

1436
01:44:49.721 --> 01:44:51.602
They've managed to theoretically survive so far.

1437
01:44:51.942 --> 01:44:53.863
The greatest superpower on Earth, apparently.

1438
01:44:53.983 --> 01:44:55.684
I mean, terrifyingly, we started...

1439
01:44:57.905 --> 01:44:59.686
Someone started killing their physicists.

1440
01:45:03.092 --> 01:45:07.554
They've injected previously bad programming into their centrifuges.

1441
01:45:09.114 --> 01:45:10.295
This is going to escalate.

1442
01:45:10.715 --> 01:45:18.398
And my feeling about this is if I had an easy solution to this, you don't think I would find a way to pass it?

1443
01:45:18.898 --> 01:45:19.939
So there's no easy solution?

1444
01:45:20.679 --> 01:45:21.619
I'm not in the room.

1445
01:45:21.739 --> 01:45:24.040
I'm not getting classified briefings.

1446
01:45:24.361 --> 01:45:25.561
I don't speak Farsi.

1447
01:45:27.222 --> 01:45:28.302
I don't speak Pashto.

1448
01:45:28.422 --> 01:45:29.883
I don't speak Hebrew.

1449
01:45:32.050 --> 01:45:40.794
It's funny because people aren't really talking as much about the nuclear threat these days because AI seems to be so much more of an urgent, bigger threat.

1450
01:45:40.814 --> 01:45:43.855
We weirdly decided that nuclear was sort of passe.

1451
01:45:43.875 --> 01:45:44.576
Mm-hmm.

1452
01:45:45.456 --> 01:45:48.077
That we won the Cold War and therefore it wasn't a problem.

1453
01:45:48.457 --> 01:45:49.218
Kind of feels that way.

1454
01:45:50.538 --> 01:45:54.100
People aren't really that interested in it versus things like AI.

1455
01:45:54.800 --> 01:45:58.382
Except that AI is going to creep into your nuclear defenses.

1456
01:45:58.402 --> 01:45:58.582
Yeah.

1457
01:45:59.268 --> 01:46:04.813
I just don't grasp, again, I don't know how to say this in a way that doesn't become annoying.

1458
01:46:05.974 --> 01:46:09.636
Assume as a baseline that we're all completely insane.

1459
01:46:09.676 --> 01:46:11.658
We can't have serious conversations.

1460
01:46:12.258 --> 01:46:14.820
We keep finding these grooves as LLMs.

1461
01:46:15.341 --> 01:46:19.804
And the Eric LLM is talking to the Stephen LLM for 95% of our conversation.

1462
01:46:20.645 --> 01:46:23.227
And occasionally 5% we get into new territory.

1463
01:46:23.768 --> 01:46:27.991
So my feeling about this is, isn't it strange that we haven't connected...

1464
01:46:29.182 --> 01:46:29.709
The Nukes

1465
01:46:31.345 --> 01:46:34.086
to the alien conversation, because they're very connected.

1466
01:46:34.206 --> 01:46:38.448
We haven't connected it to the oil conversation.

1467
01:46:38.468 --> 01:46:42.130
We haven't connected it to the AI conversation.

1468
01:46:42.690 --> 01:46:46.492
It's just the sort of orphan thing off to the side.

1469
01:46:46.552 --> 01:46:57.677
And honestly, I think you might see a nuke used by Putin because the Russians gained a kind of contempt for nuclear weapons when they started using it as an engineering tool to put out fires and things.

1470
01:46:58.557 --> 01:47:15.946
So my concern, of course, is that if you corner Russia, I don't think Putin won't push Article 5 territory, nor do I think he will restrain himself from using a tactical nuke, and particularly in an engineering capacity, just to test us.

1471
01:47:16.887 --> 01:47:20.629
So my feeling is that I'm not positive that nukes crop up in Iran first.

1472
01:47:20.789 --> 01:47:26.632
We're in an incredibly dangerous period, and I would like to think that Xi, Putin, Trump,

1473
01:47:28.892 --> 01:47:34.714
would be moved to get together if the cause demanded it.

1474
01:47:34.794 --> 01:47:38.735
And I really think we should rethink our situation in Iran and Ukraine.

1475
01:47:40.495 --> 01:47:44.556
And, you know, for you to just keep asking, well, how do you solve the world's problems?

1476
01:47:45.277 --> 01:47:46.257
It's not a fair question.

1477
01:47:46.997 --> 01:47:50.378
The right question is, can we recognize the danger?

1478
01:47:50.418 --> 01:47:52.619
Can we recognize how precious this gift is?

1479
01:47:53.459 --> 01:47:57.720
Can we get excited about each other, about

1480
01:48:00.140 --> 01:48:03.262
burying animosity.

1481
01:48:03.363 --> 01:48:07.105
When was the last time you worried about Egypt and Israel going to war with each other?

1482
01:48:09.547 --> 01:48:10.188
Think about that.

1483
01:48:11.789 --> 01:48:12.750
That was impossible.

1484
01:48:15.932 --> 01:48:16.332
We did it.

1485
01:48:17.293 --> 01:48:17.633
Barely.

1486
01:48:17.673 --> 01:48:18.994
It's a cold, shitty peace.

1487
01:48:19.835 --> 01:48:20.435
But it's a peace.

1488
01:48:20.455 --> 01:48:23.518
What's your last question?

1489
01:48:23.538 --> 01:48:24.078
What's your last question?

1490
01:48:26.352 --> 01:48:29.775
My last question is, what is the most beautiful place you've been in your life?

1491
01:48:30.356 --> 01:48:30.536
Oh.

1492
01:48:32.678 --> 01:48:34.099
That was left by our former guest.

1493
01:48:36.742 --> 01:48:37.643
Such a great question.

1494
01:48:38.864 --> 01:48:45.470
I have to say, right above a whale shark off of St. Helena, took my breath away, and...

1495
01:48:47.418 --> 01:48:51.721
Swimming with the fish in the Red Sea is something I can't forget.

1496
01:48:52.061 --> 01:49:03.328
I managed to see the Aurora Borealis in Maine of all places, and I got to spend a total eclipse with my son in Missouri at the exact point where the last one had crossed.

1497
01:49:04.729 --> 01:49:08.051
I could go on for ages, and how would you choose between them?

1498
01:49:11.766 --> 01:49:13.087
We talked about a lot of stuff.

1499
01:49:13.988 --> 01:49:18.511
You know, my listeners, they range in demographics and geography and so on.

1500
01:49:18.571 --> 01:49:19.872
But what is your advice for them?

1501
01:49:20.593 --> 01:49:29.099
In a world that's changing at the rate of knots that this world is, and all of these big, scary words are thrown around all the time, and AI this, and robotics, and war.

1502
01:49:29.679 --> 01:49:30.480
What is your advice for them?

1503
01:49:30.920 --> 01:49:36.884
Don't be afraid to have kids, even if you have no viable plan to support them.

1504
01:49:37.665 --> 01:49:40.347
Because if you wait for a viable plan, it'll usually be too late.

1505
01:49:41.453 --> 01:49:46.656
you encourage people to have kids, but you warn that civilization may also collapse.

1506
01:49:47.477 --> 01:49:48.137
Feels like a...

1507
01:49:49.218 --> 01:49:55.201
If we don't want civilization to collapse, we better have some babies because civilization is about babies.

1508
01:49:55.221 --> 01:50:03.326
And if you can't figure out that babies are the key to civilization, you've got bigger problems than taking advice from me.

1509
01:50:03.526 --> 01:50:04.227
I would say that

1510
01:50:05.701 --> 01:50:06.463
Be of good cheer.

1511
01:50:07.807 --> 01:50:08.970
Get super excited.

1512
01:50:09.171 --> 01:50:14.405
Don't worry about being called arrogant or delusional if everyone is in fact crazy.

1513
01:50:16.782 --> 01:50:24.327
Watch the world through your own eyes first and then correct it to what everybody tells you you should be seeing second.

1514
01:50:24.747 --> 01:50:26.668
You're seeing a world that is fictitious.

1515
01:50:26.808 --> 01:50:29.430
You're watching professional wrestling constantly.

1516
01:50:29.790 --> 01:50:34.633
If you have that sense that everything is off, congratulations.

1517
01:50:35.573 --> 01:50:36.514
Believe in yourself.

1518
01:50:36.914 --> 01:50:43.638
Recognize that it is incumbent upon you to lie in your life so that you can fit in with all of these systems.

1519
01:50:43.658 --> 01:50:45.679
You're entitled to a hypocrisy budget.

1520
01:50:46.620 --> 01:50:49.482
You're entitled to a sloth budget, an envy budget.

1521
01:50:50.262 --> 01:50:51.723
You're entitled to be a sinner.

1522
01:50:52.584 --> 01:50:53.744
You're entitled to fail.

1523
01:50:53.884 --> 01:50:55.805
Just try to stay within your budgets.

1524
01:50:56.106 --> 01:51:01.889
Do not proceed as if you're trying to get rid of your hypocrisy, because you'll certainly fail.

1525
01:51:02.649 --> 01:51:06.452
Don't try to get rid of all of the things that make you human.

1526
01:51:06.472 --> 01:51:15.497
And recognize that at the moment, when all of our mistakes are compounding, because we're in a digital format that never forgets anything,

1527
01:51:16.567 --> 01:51:20.632
You're entitled to so many screw ups that you're not taking.

1528
01:51:21.173 --> 01:51:22.755
Just be compassionate with yourself.

1529
01:51:22.915 --> 01:51:30.786
And then once you've done that, extend that to the guy who just cut you off in traffic, the person who just stabbed you in the back a little bit at work.

1530
01:51:31.066 --> 01:51:34.070
Because talking about that plane pilot thing again.

1531
01:51:34.899 --> 01:51:48.791
No, that would be stabbing you right in the... By the way, shout out to this Indian hero of a pilot and the Israelis who came in and saved the day once the cockpit door was opened.

1532
01:51:49.311 --> 01:51:49.531
Just...

1533
01:51:50.312 --> 01:51:55.135
Two of the countries I love most in the world because they're both just giant celebrations of life.

1534
01:51:55.455 --> 01:51:59.938
And remember that the life cults are more powerful than the death cults.

1535
01:52:00.058 --> 01:52:16.289
But you've got to really enjoy heroism and people who are agentic taking risks, taking charge, and taking care of the weak and people who can't take care of themselves.

1536
01:52:17.369 --> 01:52:18.130
Thanks, Stephen.

1537
01:52:18.150 --> 01:52:19.671
Really appreciate you having me back here.

1538
01:52:19.892 --> 01:52:21.401
Thank you for coming back, it's always a pleasure.

1539
01:52:21.562 --> 01:52:23.272
It's always an intellectual expansion.