WEBVTT

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it's a blocker everybody we do have a blocker the blocker is number four i've made a celebratory image for this oh wow prime that's actually all right yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah uh anyway sorry what is the number four casey can you guess why the number four is holding up all modern internet

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No, absolutely not.

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I mean, you said something obliquely before it started about a certificate.

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So I'm assuming that it has something to do with like a root chain of trust or something like this.

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But I have not read anything about this.

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Okay, so it sounds like you're familiar with certificate authorities, correct?

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Yes.

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Or at least the concept.

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For those that don't know what a certificate authority is, effectively, when you're talking to another machine, how do you know that you're actually talking to another machine?

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Because there's a bunch of machines between you and any other machine.

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That is how the internet works.

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That's why Kamala Harris, in fact...

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Oh my gosh, I can't believe I have too many of these open.

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That really ruins the flow of this all.

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This is why she says... Up here in this cloud.

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It's in the clouds, okay?

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It's in the clouds above us.

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It's one of my favorite clips.

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I know, I had it all ready for this exact thing.

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So anyways, Casey, it does turn out that one of the root or one of the intermediate authorities, so remember, a root authority does not sign every single one.

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They also trust on intermediate authorities as well.

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It turns out that there is a company called eMudra, which is an India-based company that is going to be one of these intermediate signing authorities.

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Well, they released 24 new certificates of various qualities like RSA 496 and then a couple won.

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And then one of them was a P382 elliptical curve signing authority.

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And this P382 signing authority, it turns out all the big random primes that they chose as their key were, well, in fact, not primes, as you can see right here.

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And were, in fact, really small, including four.

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Just the number four.

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It's supposed to be a unique set of 382 bytes worth of... Technically prime.

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It is still unique.

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I mean, four is an integer.

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It's very unique.

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It's just most of it's zeros.

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Of the 48 bytes, 47 of them are in fact zero.

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Zero.

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And so that is not very good.

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So you can break them immediately.

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And what this means is that when you go on your browser and you type something, Google right away goes, Oh, you can't do that.

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This thing's been hacked.

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It's really, really bad.

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But if I jump over here into my beautiful terminal and I hit, uh,

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curl i think this might be the one i just went through somebody doing a man in the this is a man in the middle attack or someone is actually tricking my curl into thinking that i connected to we have a problem.com but i didn't

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That's not what just happened there.

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They've set up their own intermediate attack.

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And so it turns out that the signing authority, you can now on pretty much all embedded devices, in which I just showed you right here, this person just rooted their smart home speaker and now is playing on the system.

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You can now say, well, you can say the most important thing we've all wanted to say.

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I'm the Google now.

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You get to do this.

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Thank you.

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I've been on it all morning making tweets.

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Oh my goodness.

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I don't know if you know this.

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That's your job.

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That's my job.

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I've been making tweets nonstop.

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Yeah.

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HTTPS, I mean, or I should just say, like, the whole, like, way that they decided to do that certificate authority stuff is really bad.

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I mean, I've said this many times before.

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You can go back on my Twitter, like, a decade and find me complaining about how bad their security design was on that.

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Can I interrupt for a quick second?

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Yeah.

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Oh, hey, honey.

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You're looking a little low today.

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You could use some Terminal Coffee.

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All natural coffee beans from the upper slopes of Brazil.

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No artificial sweeteners.

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What in the SSH are you talking about?

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Who are you talking to?

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Roasted Fresh in New Jersey.

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Only available in the Terminal.

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Okay, so from my perspective, the fact that you can't know two...

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Legendary network programmer?

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Oh, I thought that's what you were going to say.

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TJ, this is not the intro.

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You're not allowed to interrupt yet.

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Oh, sorry.

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So how to tell that two machines are actually talking to each other?

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What would be a better approach than a third party that says I have signed off on this public key, in fact, being the correct one, what you're doing and what you're using right now is good.

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I don't actually know how this problem could be solved alternatively.

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Casey, would you mind giving us maybe like a three minute breakdown of an alternative solution?

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I've never I have no idea.

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Sure.

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Well, I mean, just to be clear, it's not so much that there is an alternative solution conceptually, meaning that like, oh, there's this other thing that you would do.

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Right.

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It's more that they did not put any like checks into the system.

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Right.

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So the the way that they decided to do it was just like, well, we're just going to have certificates and we issue them.

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And the browser gives you basically like this sort of root trust system.

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a certificate chain that everything has to somehow sign back, you know, sign back to eventually.

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And that's how we're going to validate everything.

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So the model is basically someone has to catch someone in probably, you know, security research has to catch the fraud first.

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And then it has to be deployed out as some kind of a patch like that.

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That was the only model that they had for how, you know, mistakes or theft or other kinds of things that might happen and, you know, are easily predictable and have happened.

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That's the only way that they have to fix them.

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In my mind, you should have done at least two other things that they did not do.

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So number one is that the site that you're trying to connect to.

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So if you think about what happens when you have a web connect, there's multiple authorities you're actually going to, right?

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You can think of it that way.

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One authority you're going to is the person who says what actual IP address that name that you're asking for is going to resolve to, right?

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So that's one thing.

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Then another one is asking, you know, to see a signature that says, oh, here is like some chain of trust that I can tie back to the things that are already installed on my machine, the root certificate chains that I have on my machine.

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And so you're kind of doing those two things.

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So number one is those should have had to have agreed.

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if that makes sense.

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Meaning when a DNS record gets served, it should have also served what it thought the signing authority was.

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So that you have to hack both the DNS queries, which should have been secured by their own certificate.

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Meaning I have a root chain of trust to my DNS authority.

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That tells you one of the, it basically gives you back one certificate of trust.

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The other side gives you back its third-party annotation.

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And if those don't agree, meaning if the thing says the DNS was not the right DNS, if the DNS says the certificate authority was not the right certificate authority, then it's like, warning, this is a problem.

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What we currently have is something that if you hack the certificate authority, you're done.

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No one is checking anything.

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Which is why my curl successfully curled the site it should never have been able to curl.

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It doesn't even have to be hacked in this case.

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They just picked four.

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Right.

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Third thing I would have added in addition to that, right?

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So one is the one they did add, which is the third participation.

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Two is the one they didn't add, which is the DNS corroboration.

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And three is saved authentication.

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And that is that when you first connect to a site, like the very first time,

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I cannot believe that we did not do something where it warns you if if the signature from the next time it gets is not from the same certificate authority.

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Right.

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But I've never seen such a warning ever, even when things have changed their certificate.

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So that is crazy to me that we didn't do that, because in theory, that should be something that the user goes, whoa, whoa, whoa.

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Hold on a second.

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Let me check the news or something independently to make sure that these people actually did put out a press release that says like that should have been big news as we're changing our certificate authority.

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Right.

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Yeah.

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Maybe I just don't log into my bank.

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Like, I can keep doing other stuff, but I don't have to log into my bank for that.

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And there are some little things they added, like those green certificates.

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There are certain ones that have, like, slightly... Like, that do a little bit of what I'm saying, but not entirely.

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So...

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Why all that stuff wasn't done?

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Because all that seems really basic to me and doesn't really, it's not stuff that is, like I said, it's not conceptually any different from the way that it works now.

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It's just adding like obvious things you would do because the way they did it was like it almost entirely just relies on just this one thing.

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If anyone hacks any root chain, you're done until a security professional notices.

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That just – that can't be right, right?

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And so, you know, I mean, to their credit, the security professionals do a good job.

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These things have been getting caught fairly early as far as we know, right?

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But, like, it's not great, right?

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And I feel like a lot more care should have been taken, especially by now they've had –

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decades to improve upon this.

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And I just don't feel like now I'm not a security professional.

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So the things I'm saying are just kind of common sense things that I'm wondering why they didn't do.

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There's something like just a, you know, a lay person comes to it and goes like, what the heck, how come it's doing it?

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Maybe they have really good reasons why they don't do those things.

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I would want to hear them before I believe them.

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But also I would imagine if you were a security professional, you probably also have several things I didn't just mention that are more subtle and more interesting that you also should have done that weren't done.

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So yeah.

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you know that's what i would say okay trash no i mean i because i don't really know how else this problem can be solved but i do like this idea of dns but imagine this entire world that we constantly already complain about dns being a problem now you have a secondary dns being a problem where your certificates don't match i just feel like dns would be the bane of all of our existence if that happened

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I mean, but it already is.

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So I don't see there being that.

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Yeah, I was like, DNS is always the problem.

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I know, but now imagine it has more responsibility.

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That's Prime's law, isn't it?

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What?

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This is actually... DNS is always the problem.

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Mm hmm.

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That's not my law.

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DJ Bernstein actually had a love that band early.

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Yeah, sorry.

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Had to talk pretty early on where he talks about securing the entire Internet long before HTTPS was actually adopted very widely because it was too expensive at the time.

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Right.

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So a lot of a lot of people didn't run it on their servers.

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It was kind of new.

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This is way, way back.

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And he actually proposed like, hey, here's what we do in the DNS record.

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You just put your elliptical curve right there.

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And whenever anyone gets a DNS record, you encrypt with that.

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And so in my opinion, that's like obviously like I was just like, yes, obviously you should do that.

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So you have a third party that attests so that you can, you know, in case the DNS server was compromised.

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You have a DNS server, which gives you an encryption key.

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So that is a secondary form that makes sure that you can't be intercepted.

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And I feel like that would have been a lot safer than just trusting one thing.

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At least now you have to hack two things.

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I really, by the way, I just want to throw this out there.

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This is a very funny tweet.

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This is going to be my story.

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that is a good one yes so good fabulous it's very very i mean i know that's not what it looks like but still it's very funny to think that that's four four all right so there we go that is kind of one of the many blockers now word has been told to me that we actually have several blockers so let me just throw this one over into done we have trash's bark

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Yes.

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Oh.

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Now, Kate, let's see the trash.

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I believe inspired by your barking, we also barked.

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And I believe there's actually a story even behind the shipping of this said bark.

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Let's see it.

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Is there a story?

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Maybe.

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So we have coffee bark off of Williamsonoma.

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How good is that?

191
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Thank you, Lindsay.

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That sounds good.

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This is actually what I was eating before.

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This is actually delicious.

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I'm not sure how you're supposed to eat it because it comes in like one...

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Probably bite like one bite at a time is my guess.

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Well, it comes in like a solid sheet.

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So I assume you're supposed to break it, but I've just been like nibbling on the corner like a hamster.

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It's like a giant pop tart.

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Oh, you take the smallest bites.

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Quick note, trash.

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I don't know if you guys know this, but I got my two front teeth are fake.

203
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So if I bite it too hard, they will fall out of my mouth.

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I gotta be careful.

205
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We found that out already on the podcast.

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That was a surprise story.

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That was more trash lore that I didn't know that I needed to know.

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So I gotta be very careful because last time it fell out was when I bit like a baguette and they just came flying out my mouth.

209
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So I got PTSD from that one.

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We got the chocolate bark, Hollow's Eve.

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I don't know what this looks like.

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Let's see what this looks like.

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Oh my God, this is cool.

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Oh, nice, dude.

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That is super cool.

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Yes.

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Dude, the kids are going to freak at that one, Trash.

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I know.

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They're going to love it.

220
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And then we got the classic.

221
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With the dog for some reason.

222
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With the dogs.

223
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Let's see if it's shaped like a dog.

224
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With Teej's dad joke dogs in effect.

225
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So this looks like more of your traditional bark.

226
00:14:06.965 --> 00:14:09.906
The Halloween thing is amazing.

227
00:14:09.946 --> 00:14:11.587
They went the extra mile on that.

228
00:14:12.751 --> 00:14:19.915
Yeah, so I don't know what the story is, but some dude Ubered it over, which I think from Lindsay's house, maybe?

229
00:14:20.196 --> 00:14:21.096
I don't even know.

230
00:14:22.297 --> 00:14:25.279
Probably because she tried to ship it to you normally and it didn't work.

231
00:14:25.779 --> 00:14:27.000
Yes, we did.

232
00:14:28.073 --> 00:14:29.915
We did order from Williams and Sonoma.

233
00:14:29.955 --> 00:14:32.937
I know that for sure because I saw it on the company card.

234
00:14:32.957 --> 00:14:34.558
So I know for a fact.

235
00:14:35.019 --> 00:14:39.682
And I knew it was going to be Bark the moment I saw that show up in my inbox.

236
00:14:40.623 --> 00:14:43.666
So I don't remember quite what the story was, TJ.

237
00:14:43.686 --> 00:14:45.187
Do you remember what the story was on shipping?

238
00:14:46.965 --> 00:14:48.026
It's Casey's story.

239
00:14:48.607 --> 00:14:48.927
No, no, no, no.

240
00:14:48.947 --> 00:14:49.407
What do you mean?

241
00:14:49.848 --> 00:14:50.768
There's another story.

242
00:14:51.149 --> 00:14:52.069
There's another story.

243
00:14:52.109 --> 00:14:56.353
Lindsay was trying to ship the bark, and that's why there was an Uber Eats individual.

244
00:14:56.393 --> 00:14:58.334
That's why Trash had to get manned in the middle.

245
00:14:59.015 --> 00:15:04.859
Not because it was four, but because there was actually a, like, could not ship it to Trash.

246
00:15:05.660 --> 00:15:11.441
Because there was like a heat warning and they just like refused to ship it saying it will melt the bark if they ship it in this kind of way.

247
00:15:11.481 --> 00:15:17.383
And so like there was a whole situation that ended up Lindsay figured out how to get around and trash the bark.

248
00:15:18.443 --> 00:15:19.283
How did Lindsay even get it?

249
00:15:19.303 --> 00:15:20.964
Didn't they have to ship it to Lindsay to begin with?

250
00:15:22.744 --> 00:15:23.744
She went to Williams-Sonoma.

251
00:15:23.764 --> 00:15:24.525
Maybe she just went there.

252
00:15:24.545 --> 00:15:24.685
Yeah.

253
00:15:24.825 --> 00:15:26.525
She might have just went to the old W.S.

254
00:15:27.065 --> 00:15:28.646
Oh, very possible because I do have the bag.

255
00:15:28.666 --> 00:15:29.286
There it is.

256
00:15:29.926 --> 00:15:30.106
Yep.

257
00:15:31.071 --> 00:15:31.792
I do have the bag.

258
00:15:32.492 --> 00:15:33.753
That's actually insane.

259
00:15:34.093 --> 00:15:35.674
Yeah, so that's how she did it.

260
00:15:35.694 --> 00:15:42.959
That's why she was able to ship it faster than Casey, because Casey went the plebeian route and just tried to ship it, which they're just like, can't ship it today.

261
00:15:43.399 --> 00:15:44.920
It's hot in the United States.

262
00:15:45.040 --> 00:15:48.843
That was, unfortunately, just never passing.

263
00:15:48.983 --> 00:15:51.785
I was nice, but he made me run all the way down my path.

264
00:15:51.805 --> 00:15:52.245
You know what?

265
00:15:52.265 --> 00:15:53.566
You need to get your peppermint bark.

266
00:15:53.626 --> 00:15:54.466
Global warming.

267
00:15:54.486 --> 00:15:55.447
Global warming.

268
00:15:57.118 --> 00:15:57.998
It's never coming.

269
00:15:59.059 --> 00:15:59.780
Back to God.

270
00:16:00.240 --> 00:16:01.161
Nothing we can do.

271
00:16:01.661 --> 00:16:03.062
You've seen my backyard before.

272
00:16:03.122 --> 00:16:03.782
Global warming.

273
00:16:03.943 --> 00:16:05.364
I'm in the same backyard.

274
00:16:05.424 --> 00:16:06.364
It's changed a lot.

275
00:16:06.544 --> 00:16:07.105
Okay.

276
00:16:07.865 --> 00:16:09.226
All the trees is gone.

277
00:16:09.627 --> 00:16:10.587
All the trees are gone.

278
00:16:10.728 --> 00:16:11.568
The grass is gone.

279
00:16:11.648 --> 00:16:12.849
It's global warming.

280
00:16:12.969 --> 00:16:13.450
What can you say?

281
00:16:14.588 --> 00:16:20.651
Alright, so I'm gonna move this over, and I'm actually gonna create a quick blocker here, which is, WTF, where is my bark?

282
00:16:21.291 --> 00:16:25.353
I'm a little bit upset about this whole situation going on here.

283
00:16:25.914 --> 00:16:30.256
Prime, quick note, she can't Uber Eats it from her house to your house.

284
00:16:30.336 --> 00:16:33.097
There is no Uber Eats driver willing to drive to South Dakota.

285
00:16:33.237 --> 00:16:34.678
Is there a room to be even near you?

286
00:16:36.500 --> 00:16:39.483
No, there's no William Snowman near me, and there's no Uber near me.

287
00:16:40.223 --> 00:16:42.185
But I still want my bark, okay?

288
00:16:43.286 --> 00:16:45.527
I feel a little left out on this whole bark and snack.

289
00:16:46.188 --> 00:16:46.748
Maybe in December.

290
00:16:46.768 --> 00:16:47.649
Next up again is it going on.

291
00:16:47.669 --> 00:16:53.534
All right, before we move on from Trash, I need his help on something real quick.

292
00:16:53.674 --> 00:17:03.362
I was able to verify that at 4—I did a very diligent job this time— that at 4.30 specifically, which is the last time that I went, just one of these packs drops.

293
00:17:04.690 --> 00:17:05.831
Oh, so you know the timer now.

294
00:17:06.111 --> 00:17:07.572
So this one's at 4.30.

295
00:17:07.592 --> 00:17:09.092
Ooh, that's Chaos Rising.

296
00:17:09.433 --> 00:17:14.995
Well, I don't know if it's specifically that pack, but a drop will happen, and it's just likely that someone left it for you.

297
00:17:15.015 --> 00:17:16.036
That it's the small one.

298
00:17:16.356 --> 00:17:20.658
So I'm going to need you to just really quickly tell me if there's anything in here, okay?

299
00:17:20.938 --> 00:17:21.659
Because I don't know.

300
00:17:21.679 --> 00:17:21.999
I don't...

301
00:17:22.739 --> 00:17:23.179
Let's go.

302
00:17:23.480 --> 00:17:24.280
Let's get our fix.

303
00:17:24.821 --> 00:17:25.541
All right, let's do this.

304
00:17:25.561 --> 00:17:27.803
I am so happy that this keeps happening.

305
00:17:28.244 --> 00:17:29.665
I don't know how to open these things.

306
00:17:29.685 --> 00:17:31.686
They still are wicked hard for me to open.

307
00:17:31.806 --> 00:17:32.087
Yeah.

308
00:17:32.467 --> 00:17:33.128
He is, dude.

309
00:17:33.148 --> 00:17:34.068
He pulled it out.

310
00:17:34.128 --> 00:17:35.730
He had it ready to go.

311
00:17:35.750 --> 00:17:37.051
Yeah, he didn't even have to go.

312
00:17:37.071 --> 00:17:37.851
He didn't have to get up.

313
00:17:37.871 --> 00:17:39.493
My desk is just surrounded by cards.

314
00:17:39.673 --> 00:17:44.377
I would just like to say that the stand-up is willing to buy you guys a pack every week.

315
00:17:44.437 --> 00:17:45.297
How do you buy it?

316
00:17:45.418 --> 00:17:46.578
How do you buy them?

317
00:17:46.759 --> 00:17:47.339
I don't know how.

318
00:17:47.399 --> 00:17:48.340
I don't know how.

319
00:17:48.360 --> 00:17:49.681
Put the top one on the bottom now.

320
00:17:49.781 --> 00:17:50.802
Put the top one on the bottom.

321
00:17:51.062 --> 00:18:09.075
There you go, now just show it to your camera There we go, let's go Okay, nice, whoa, you guys match, cool So first eight are gonna be Or first seven are just like common cards Nothing to write Oh, my daughter loves foxes Well, she can have some Is that Charizard?

322
00:18:09.095 --> 00:18:13.739
I think we're gonna start getting to the good stuff I lost my count, okay, now we're getting to the holly See how it's a little bit shinier?

323
00:18:14.079 --> 00:18:17.982
Okay, okay So maybe the last one's the good one

324
00:18:19.203 --> 00:18:20.463
Oh, you got an EX.

325
00:18:21.044 --> 00:18:22.224
That's a good one.

326
00:18:22.284 --> 00:18:22.484
Is it?

327
00:18:22.504 --> 00:18:25.345
It's not amazing, but it's better than what I got.

328
00:18:25.705 --> 00:18:26.985
Alright, we're gonna leave that one out.

329
00:18:27.125 --> 00:18:29.146
We'll leave that as our first actual swag.

330
00:18:29.166 --> 00:18:31.106
Get that PSA graded ASAP, Casey.

331
00:18:31.426 --> 00:18:32.026
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

332
00:18:32.066 --> 00:18:34.227
Except for PSA did just get robbed, if you didn't hear.

333
00:18:34.347 --> 00:18:35.887
Million dollars worth of Pokemon cards.

334
00:18:36.347 --> 00:18:37.588
Oh, did they include a tour?

335
00:18:38.608 --> 00:18:38.888
Yeah.

336
00:18:39.608 --> 00:18:39.988
Yeah.

337
00:18:40.989 --> 00:18:42.689
Everything in life sucks right now, okay?

338
00:18:42.709 --> 00:18:46.330
You got certificate authorities failing, you got Pokemon cards being stolen.

339
00:18:46.350 --> 00:18:46.610
PHP?

340
00:18:48.478 --> 00:18:49.139
PHP?

341
00:18:49.659 --> 00:18:50.240
PHP?

342
00:18:50.260 --> 00:18:51.541
Oh yeah, PHP.

343
00:18:51.621 --> 00:18:58.007
I think my favorite of that whole thing, of course, is not that just PHP was in fact hacked, that they announced that it was hackable.

344
00:18:59.126 --> 00:19:09.334
before having the fix out, which then led a bunch of people to publicly post, or actually at least one person to publicly post, how to perform the hack on Twitter.

345
00:19:09.354 --> 00:19:14.919
70% of the internet runs PHP like this is not okay.

346
00:19:15.279 --> 00:19:24.987
We'd just like to warn everyone ahead of time that we're going to be releasing a patch for this specific thing you can do right here to hack any PHP installation.

347
00:19:25.207 --> 00:19:25.527
Yeah.

348
00:19:25.767 --> 00:19:41.219
Luckily, but see, Casey, the thing is, is that for you to be able to take advantage of said hack, you'd have to have years of PHP core development and ability to have insights into various systems and potentially multiple PhDs at the same time to really take advantage of that hack.

349
00:19:41.239 --> 00:19:42.960
So nothing to worry about.

350
00:19:43.301 --> 00:19:44.381
Not really.

351
00:19:45.562 --> 00:19:45.903
All right.

352
00:19:45.943 --> 00:19:46.943
What's our last blocker?

353
00:19:47.604 --> 00:19:48.585
That's a great question.

354
00:19:49.863 --> 00:19:52.624
Right now, our last one is shout out to Luigi Delta Lounge.

355
00:19:52.644 --> 00:19:53.625
I assume this is a TJ.

356
00:19:54.205 --> 00:19:54.926
Oh, yeah.

357
00:19:54.946 --> 00:19:58.628
This was a while ago now, but I put it in here and it kept on not getting brought up.

358
00:19:59.088 --> 00:20:05.011
Me and Beacon were coming home from San Francisco and a guy named Luigi came up and said he loves the show.

359
00:20:05.511 --> 00:20:08.053
And so he's, you know, just enjoying it.

360
00:20:08.073 --> 00:20:10.474
So I want to be like, yo, thanks, Luigi, for loving the show.

361
00:20:10.514 --> 00:20:12.415
If you're listening to this episode, thank you.

362
00:20:13.150 --> 00:20:16.811
If you're listening to this episode, TJ will be traveling again in an airport.

363
00:20:17.551 --> 00:20:18.351
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

364
00:20:18.371 --> 00:20:19.071
Yeah, right, exactly.

365
00:20:19.111 --> 00:20:19.951
Wait, is he on Delta?

366
00:20:19.971 --> 00:20:21.212
Unfortunately, not Delta.

367
00:20:22.132 --> 00:20:23.312
Stupid Allegiant.

368
00:20:24.592 --> 00:20:26.313
He's on Delta Flight 4.

369
00:20:26.953 --> 00:20:29.013
Guys, I have to tell this story.

370
00:20:29.033 --> 00:20:35.955
Blocker, here, since it's airport-related, is we had a flight 645 out of my home airport, AM.

371
00:20:36.575 --> 00:20:38.395
Got all my kids up, 4 AM.

372
00:20:38.655 --> 00:20:39.876
Got them in the car, packed them up.

373
00:20:40.156 --> 00:20:40.976
You got to get the...

374
00:20:41.576 --> 00:20:47.622
Got to get all of the car seats out of the car, a million checked bags, et cetera.

375
00:20:47.942 --> 00:20:52.526
We're in line to check the bags, 445 a.m., get a message from Allegiant.

376
00:20:52.646 --> 00:20:53.227
Oh, sorry, guys.

377
00:20:53.307 --> 00:20:56.790
It's going to be 140 in the afternoon before we can fly.

378
00:20:58.551 --> 00:21:00.792
I just love that it wasn't like, hey, it's 30 minutes late.

379
00:21:00.812 --> 00:21:02.612
It's like, hey, we're off.

380
00:21:02.712 --> 00:21:04.252
Like, we wrong side of the Meridian.

381
00:21:04.272 --> 00:21:05.173
I don't know what happened.

382
00:21:05.193 --> 00:21:06.093
They didn't have the plane.

383
00:21:06.113 --> 00:21:06.753
The plane's gone.

384
00:21:06.773 --> 00:21:08.113
The plane was still in Florida.

385
00:21:08.133 --> 00:21:13.254
They had to fly the Florida plane to Michigan and then take that one back to Florida.

386
00:21:13.274 --> 00:21:16.355
So it was like, but you guys didn't know that at 4 a.m.?

387
00:21:17.716 --> 00:21:20.556
You had to wait until I got to the airport and woke up all my kids up.

388
00:21:23.057 --> 00:21:23.577
Classic.

389
00:21:23.597 --> 00:21:23.677
No.

390
00:21:23.757 --> 00:21:23.857
No.

391
00:21:25.792 --> 00:21:26.452
I didn't.

392
00:21:26.573 --> 00:21:44.602
My feeling is that usually they kind of have like almost a programmer like mentality at airlines where, you know, they're probably thinking, well, we don't want to tell everyone that the plane's not here in case we're able to like shuffle around some other.

393
00:21:44.782 --> 00:21:51.406
I'm like, guys, you never it never you never that never works like you're always late, always.

394
00:21:51.466 --> 00:21:54.428
So just assume whatever it is, it's not going to work.

395
00:21:54.468 --> 00:21:54.628
Right.

396
00:21:54.988 --> 00:21:59.270
So just tell everyone they've got an extra couple of hours because they do.

397
00:22:00.030 --> 00:22:02.331
I thought you were saying more programmer-like mentality.

398
00:22:02.351 --> 00:22:06.092
Like you were saying like, well, that's probably only going to take me two weeks, but it takes six months.

399
00:22:06.352 --> 00:22:06.833
Yeah.

400
00:22:06.893 --> 00:22:07.833
Well, that's, yeah.

401
00:22:07.893 --> 00:22:09.594
I mean, it's just this optimism.

402
00:22:09.674 --> 00:22:11.134
It's the optimism, right?

403
00:22:11.154 --> 00:22:11.374
Yeah.

404
00:22:11.394 --> 00:22:13.375
It's the eternal optimist, right?

405
00:22:13.675 --> 00:22:14.056
But anyway.

406
00:22:14.396 --> 00:22:17.257
As I currently live in a, hey, it will just be two more weeks.

407
00:22:18.390 --> 00:22:20.751
Which is now eight more weeks for everything, it seems like.

408
00:22:20.871 --> 00:22:24.392
All right, so, hey, Luigi, we appreciate you very, very much.

409
00:22:24.432 --> 00:22:26.753
So thank you very much, Luigi, and all shout-outs.

410
00:22:27.553 --> 00:22:27.773
Mm-hmm.

411
00:22:28.814 --> 00:22:29.074
Done.

412
00:22:29.394 --> 00:22:29.754
Oh, man.

413
00:22:30.194 --> 00:22:32.035
Actually, you know, honestly, I don't know even where.

414
00:22:32.115 --> 00:22:34.796
I just accidentally put it in, like, canceled, I think, or something.

415
00:22:34.856 --> 00:22:35.576
We canceled.

416
00:22:35.596 --> 00:22:36.016
Luigi.

417
00:22:36.156 --> 00:22:36.896
It's in one of those.

418
00:22:36.916 --> 00:22:38.157
Don't cancel, Luigi.

419
00:22:38.337 --> 00:22:42.798
I was going to put you in contention because I feel like no one ever comes up to me at the airport and talks to me.

420
00:22:42.818 --> 00:22:45.940
And every time Teach travels, he's just like, everyone's always talking to me.

421
00:22:45.960 --> 00:22:46.720
I don't know what it is.

422
00:22:47.742 --> 00:22:50.084
I don't know, maybe I look different from the camera.

423
00:22:50.104 --> 00:22:55.488
You just have to come, I've told you so many times, there is not a week that goes by that someone does not recognize me.

424
00:22:55.989 --> 00:22:57.149
It's constant.

425
00:22:57.730 --> 00:22:58.991
We were in a second, Casey.

426
00:22:59.431 --> 00:23:02.053
But Prime is not a legendary YouTuber.

427
00:23:02.394 --> 00:23:04.075
He's just a YouTuber, okay?

428
00:23:04.095 --> 00:23:06.717
They recognize me from his show!

429
00:23:06.737 --> 00:23:10.040
They definitely would recognize him, he's just not here.

430
00:23:10.060 --> 00:23:12.221
Casey from whatever that guy's show is?

431
00:23:12.401 --> 00:23:14.043
Yeah, Casey!

432
00:23:15.904 --> 00:23:17.507
No, they know the show.

433
00:23:17.547 --> 00:23:19.229
They're like from the stand up or whatever.

434
00:23:19.289 --> 00:23:19.450
Right.

435
00:23:19.470 --> 00:23:20.491
So they know you.

436
00:23:20.571 --> 00:23:21.673
You just are never here.

437
00:23:21.713 --> 00:23:22.855
You got to come out here.

438
00:23:22.895 --> 00:23:23.576
You come out here.

439
00:23:23.616 --> 00:23:24.958
You'll get recognized.

440
00:23:24.978 --> 00:23:27.802
I thoroughly would like to go do a climbing adventure.

441
00:23:27.842 --> 00:23:29.665
So I am completely down to go do this.

442
00:23:29.965 --> 00:23:30.366
We'll do it.

443
00:23:30.406 --> 00:23:30.766
We'll do it.

444
00:23:31.427 --> 00:23:32.668
It's just that we have a little bit of a tight time.

445
00:23:32.688 --> 00:23:34.830
Okay, so we need to move into the main meal, everybody.

446
00:23:34.870 --> 00:23:36.751
So, hey, welcome, everybody, to the stand-up.

447
00:23:36.771 --> 00:23:42.576
Today, we have one of the most fantastic ideas ever, which is you guys have heard of tier lists, right?

448
00:23:43.917 --> 00:23:45.799
You young kids love tier lists, right?

449
00:23:45.839 --> 00:23:54.466
Well, we got a tier list for the ages, which is all of the programming laws that you run into every single day, and we are going to tier list them all out.

450
00:23:56.027 --> 00:23:56.247
True.

451
00:23:56.528 --> 00:23:58.189
TJ, you never interrupted me once.

452
00:23:58.229 --> 00:24:00.010
I kept, like, anticipating it was going to happen.

453
00:24:00.030 --> 00:24:00.551
Yeah, what's up with that?

454
00:24:01.668 --> 00:24:02.288
I'm saving it.

455
00:24:02.448 --> 00:24:03.088
He's on the beach.

456
00:24:03.308 --> 00:24:04.269
He's on the beach.

457
00:24:04.649 --> 00:24:08.249
He's in vacation mode, so he doesn't have his interruption skills.

458
00:24:08.289 --> 00:24:08.909
He's too laid back.

459
00:24:08.929 --> 00:24:09.670
That's a great point.

460
00:24:10.230 --> 00:24:11.470
I got Miami teach today.

461
00:24:11.530 --> 00:24:12.670
Okay.

462
00:24:12.710 --> 00:24:13.590
I didn't realize that.

463
00:24:14.371 --> 00:24:14.611
All right.

464
00:24:14.951 --> 00:24:18.111
So we should start with Conway's law.

465
00:24:19.152 --> 00:24:21.132
I'm just going to set it in the middle.

466
00:24:21.372 --> 00:24:21.732
S tier.

467
00:24:21.752 --> 00:24:22.912
S tier.

468
00:24:23.072 --> 00:24:23.452
Okay.

469
00:24:23.492 --> 00:24:24.032
Okay.

470
00:24:24.073 --> 00:24:25.713
I don't even want to hear about it.

471
00:24:25.833 --> 00:24:26.053
S tier.

472
00:24:26.849 --> 00:24:31.212
But when we do every law, though, Prime, can you read a definition for the audience so that they can also be educated?

473
00:24:31.233 --> 00:24:32.393
They may not know the names of all the laws.

474
00:24:32.413 --> 00:24:32.674
Yes, I know.

475
00:24:32.694 --> 00:24:34.055
I actually have them all right here.

476
00:24:34.075 --> 00:24:35.016
I was just trying to find it.

477
00:24:35.036 --> 00:24:52.970
All right, so let's start with Conway's Law, which is, by the way, legendary game programmer Casey already has an opinion on this one, Esther, which is, organizations which design systems in a broad sense used here are constrained to produce designs which are copies of the communication structures of these organizations.

478
00:24:52.990 --> 00:24:53.230
Okay.

479
00:24:53.490 --> 00:25:10.457
Meaning that if you had, say, a team that runs checkout, a team that runs shopping, you very well may have two different user representations, some sort of weird glue code, like all sorts of funny things end up happening because each organization runs independently, thus creating their own worldview.

480
00:25:11.217 --> 00:25:19.260
I can give an even better example, which is say you're a code hosting platform, you get purchased and then you get put underneath the AI division.

481
00:25:20.286 --> 00:25:20.506
Yeah.

482
00:25:20.646 --> 00:25:21.286
At the company.

483
00:25:21.647 --> 00:25:24.948
And now suddenly code hosting goes down all the time.

484
00:25:25.588 --> 00:25:27.069
No, that's Teej's law.

485
00:25:27.289 --> 00:25:29.229
We had the same thing on the episode.

486
00:25:29.269 --> 00:25:30.070
That's Teej's law.

487
00:25:30.090 --> 00:25:31.570
That's not Conway's law.

488
00:25:31.610 --> 00:25:32.771
Conway's law doesn't say that.

489
00:25:32.831 --> 00:25:38.953
The part about it is that the only thing that matters in the structure of the code is getting co-pilot into everything is my example.

490
00:25:38.973 --> 00:25:40.053
That's not Conway's law.

491
00:25:40.093 --> 00:25:41.094
That's Teej's law.

492
00:25:41.114 --> 00:25:41.874
Okay.

493
00:25:41.894 --> 00:25:42.054
Sorry.

494
00:25:42.074 --> 00:25:42.654
Did I misunderstand it again?

495
00:25:42.674 --> 00:25:44.115
Teej's law is that I always misunderstand this one.

496
00:25:44.155 --> 00:25:49.057
Conway's law is just the representation of your structure and communication is the representation of the code.

497
00:25:51.777 --> 00:25:56.978
Conway's law is a statement about the efficiency of information movement.

498
00:25:57.539 --> 00:26:08.081
It basically says that if you, it's like inside a person's head is the fastest information efficiency because they don't have to spend any time to know something they already know.

499
00:26:08.601 --> 00:26:10.861
Talking between two people is a little bit slower.

500
00:26:10.901 --> 00:26:12.662
Talking between two orgs, much slower.

501
00:26:12.682 --> 00:26:14.322
Talking between two companies, very slow.

502
00:26:14.602 --> 00:26:14.822
Right.

503
00:26:15.302 --> 00:26:15.442
Yeah.

504
00:26:15.522 --> 00:26:29.425
And so you expect every time you put in one of those bigger barriers that the product evolution will evolve faster where it doesn't have to cross a boundary to do that evolution because the information transfer will be slower.

505
00:26:29.485 --> 00:26:29.725
Right.

506
00:26:30.906 --> 00:26:32.826
So that's what Conway's law actually says.

507
00:26:32.886 --> 00:26:34.907
And it doesn't really have anything to do with org charts.

508
00:26:35.027 --> 00:26:40.208
Even it's just org chart is an example of something that would have these properties.

509
00:26:41.154 --> 00:26:50.180
Okay, I was always led to believe, I mean, because I did accidentally state it right, which is that checkout and shopping would have two different kind of shapes of data, and then they have a synchronization communication layer.

510
00:26:50.200 --> 00:26:50.340
Yes.

511
00:26:50.620 --> 00:26:57.305
So really, what you're trying to say is that microservices are just an extension of Conway's law.

512
00:26:57.325 --> 00:26:58.106
Yeah, micro-friads.

513
00:26:58.126 --> 00:26:59.366
Yes, absolutely.

514
00:26:59.987 --> 00:27:00.167
Yeah.

515
00:27:00.794 --> 00:27:03.095
The way I see it, it eventually bubbles up.

516
00:27:03.215 --> 00:27:09.898
If it's an actual user-facing app, it bubbles up to just looks completely different on the UI as well.

517
00:27:09.918 --> 00:27:11.198
So it's like you Spotify.

518
00:27:12.599 --> 00:27:19.481
The bar at the bottom that shows the metadata on the song is completely different than the sidebar that's showing all that stuff.

519
00:27:19.521 --> 00:27:21.922
And I'm like, for some reason, it's so hard to get it right.

520
00:27:21.942 --> 00:27:24.343
And people get around this with component systems and stuff.

521
00:27:24.383 --> 00:27:25.884
But it's still impossible.

522
00:27:27.192 --> 00:27:39.319
So in other words, micro front ends, all these other things are not programming designed to make your life easier, but programming in which just tries to make Conway's cost go down.

523
00:27:40.019 --> 00:27:44.422
There's a lot of programming practices that are just like really just manifestations of Conway's law.

524
00:27:44.762 --> 00:27:45.082
Okay.

525
00:27:45.122 --> 00:27:45.582
Yes, here.

526
00:27:45.762 --> 00:27:47.243
I mean, it's absolutely yes, here.

527
00:27:47.423 --> 00:27:47.583
Yeah.

528
00:27:47.623 --> 00:27:47.783
Yep.

529
00:27:48.164 --> 00:27:48.344
Yep.

530
00:27:49.144 --> 00:27:57.827
It's also that this is as a like this would be also why a lot of stuff where it makes sense maybe for Google to do it in the make sense sort of way.

531
00:27:57.847 --> 00:28:00.648
We'll say like makes sense because they have a million engineers.

532
00:28:00.688 --> 00:28:05.710
But for everybody else, you'd be like, no, you shouldn't just copy that because you don't have the same cost.

533
00:28:05.870 --> 00:28:08.791
You just like can talk to the guy who's programming checkout.

534
00:28:08.811 --> 00:28:13.772
He's right next to you instead of like build an entire microservice architecture to talk to checkout.

535
00:28:13.912 --> 00:28:14.053
Right.

536
00:28:14.073 --> 00:28:14.513
That's what I.

537
00:28:14.653 --> 00:28:14.793
Yes.

538
00:28:14.813 --> 00:28:15.053
Yes.

539
00:28:15.613 --> 00:28:19.454
That's that would be it makes sense in big orgs why things end up being so weird.

540
00:28:20.334 --> 00:28:26.556
I mean, if for those that haven't worked in multi thousand person engineering orgs, it's just chaos.

541
00:28:26.576 --> 00:28:28.417
Like you don't even know what's going on.

542
00:28:29.717 --> 00:28:31.757
You can't you can't possibly know what's going on.

543
00:28:31.898 --> 00:28:35.438
Yeah, I mean, that's why you do the micro front end or whatever architecture.

544
00:28:35.458 --> 00:28:40.860
So your blast radius is isolated to your own product and you can ship at your own pace, basically.

545
00:28:41.000 --> 00:28:51.784
I would also just point out that Conway's law is probably durable even into the age of AI, because you will probably see as we start to study it more manifestations of Conway's law with agents.

546
00:28:52.204 --> 00:29:07.569
It's like these agents have a slower link between them way in which they can communicate or test something, or there's a compiler in the loop and you will start to see that those slower links are the things that are creating bottlenecks to like making the thing improve

547
00:29:08.249 --> 00:29:11.430
And so it starts to improve in pockets differently and things like that.

548
00:29:11.530 --> 00:29:13.930
Like, so this is a, this is a law that's so durable.

549
00:29:13.950 --> 00:29:15.531
That doesn't even have anything to do with humans.

550
00:29:15.631 --> 00:29:17.751
Like it could be said about machines as well.

551
00:29:19.691 --> 00:29:19.891
All right.

552
00:29:19.911 --> 00:29:20.231
I like it.

553
00:29:20.472 --> 00:29:20.672
All right.

554
00:29:20.692 --> 00:29:21.552
Let's go to the next one.

555
00:29:21.572 --> 00:29:21.772
Huh?

556
00:29:22.512 --> 00:29:23.612
Let's go to Brooks law.

557
00:29:25.433 --> 00:29:36.975
So this one is pretty, I think this one is, I think everybody will be pretty universally on this team, which is a, it's an observation about software project management, which means adding manpower to a late project project.

558
00:29:38.021 --> 00:29:40.122
will in fact make the project later.

559
00:29:42.543 --> 00:29:44.303
Now, I can't remember which one of the follow ones.

560
00:29:44.343 --> 00:29:46.604
It might be Eaglesons or Worth's.

561
00:29:46.984 --> 00:29:56.508
I can't remember which one, but it's actually a counter to Brooks Law, saying that there is actually a specific subset of people you can add to a project that will in fact make it even better.

562
00:29:57.148 --> 00:29:58.809
That's kind of where I'm seeing it.

563
00:29:58.849 --> 00:30:03.671
I give this like a B, C. Yeah, I'm in C tier for this one because I don't think it's true.

564
00:30:04.602 --> 00:30:12.944
Well, so here's what I think is the idea is that if the person that comes in is adding features, it slows down.

565
00:30:14.604 --> 00:30:17.665
I don't think there's anything you can really say about this law personally.

566
00:30:17.705 --> 00:30:22.806
Like I just I think it's it's just an observation about something that might happen sometimes, but it's it.

567
00:30:23.146 --> 00:30:24.306
And it doesn't happen other times.

568
00:30:24.486 --> 00:30:28.507
Like other times someone comes in and makes a really big difference and it doesn't really matter.

569
00:30:28.527 --> 00:30:30.968
It's just because they were the right person to help.

570
00:30:31.937 --> 00:30:35.758
you know, make whatever wasn't going fast enough, go fast enough.

571
00:30:35.838 --> 00:30:39.819
And other times bring someone in and they're awful and they slow down a project tremendously.

572
00:30:40.079 --> 00:30:43.820
So it's like, I think it's it to me, it's like, it's to me.

573
00:30:43.860 --> 00:30:45.140
I mean, I'd almost put it F here.

574
00:30:45.220 --> 00:30:47.800
I just don't think it's, I just don't think it's a useful law at all.

575
00:30:48.161 --> 00:30:54.422
Well, there is one thing that is specific about it that maybe we're missing is that it's for a project that's already late.

576
00:30:55.345 --> 00:30:55.525
Sure.

577
00:30:56.006 --> 00:30:57.528
So you're already in the late category.

578
00:30:57.688 --> 00:31:06.598
So bringing somebody in, you have to do like domain transfer, tribal knowledge transfer, and they're claiming that that cost is going to extend your lateness more.

579
00:31:07.827 --> 00:31:09.728
Yeah, I just haven't seen that to be true.

580
00:31:09.788 --> 00:31:19.092
I mean, granted, like, you know, the circumstances under which this was coined was like, hey, we're all programming in like assembly and Fortran on an IBM 360 or whatever.

581
00:31:19.292 --> 00:31:24.515
And like, maybe that was the case there, but I don't really think it's the case today.

582
00:31:24.595 --> 00:31:26.016
I especially don't think so because

583
00:31:27.116 --> 00:31:35.881
with sort of the tooling improvements that we've had, I think it's a lot easier also for people to, like a good programmer can come up to speed on a code base much more quickly than they could have before.

584
00:31:36.901 --> 00:31:46.966
Especially because like in a lot of circumstances, also the kinds of code bases that you might have on a late product are not exactly like incredibly novel, like weird things.

585
00:31:46.986 --> 00:31:49.047
So they're not like coming on to like

586
00:31:49.227 --> 00:31:58.111
the first time anyone ever wrote a Metropolis Hastings solver or something like that might have been the kind of thing that Brooks was thinking about or building like operating systems.

587
00:31:58.171 --> 00:31:58.371
Right.

588
00:31:59.272 --> 00:32:02.113
I think this was coined under the system 360 kind of era.

589
00:32:02.913 --> 00:32:03.434
So I don't know.

590
00:32:03.534 --> 00:32:05.474
I just I don't think this law has durability.

591
00:32:05.895 --> 00:32:07.275
I'm not saying that it doesn't happen.

592
00:32:07.415 --> 00:32:08.576
I'm just saying I don't think it's a law.

593
00:32:09.943 --> 00:32:16.914
I'll say that's a place where I have seen it to be the case is like when I was working at Epic.

594
00:32:17.135 --> 00:32:23.505
And just like most of the time late projects aren't really because of like...

595
00:32:24.402 --> 00:32:34.330
I mean, it happens that it's like just bad engineering or something, but a lot of times it's like, cool sales promised that we were gonna have this in three months and it's a two year project.

596
00:32:34.910 --> 00:32:41.375
And so like throwing more people on the project doesn't like help us get to actually meeting the business needs faster.

597
00:32:41.495 --> 00:32:44.117
It's like, nobody knows what we're even supposed to like solve.

598
00:32:44.137 --> 00:32:50.643
So now we just have like more people fighting and nobody like can write any code because we're just sitting in a room like argue.

599
00:32:50.943 --> 00:32:53.305
Like it would be better to just like have one person.

600
00:32:54.145 --> 00:32:55.006
What did you say, Josh?

601
00:32:55.586 --> 00:32:58.268
I was just saying, yeah, real-world problems.

602
00:32:58.329 --> 00:32:59.589
Right, and then cool.

603
00:32:59.830 --> 00:33:05.794
Now 10 people need to get on the call and sign off on everything, and nobody can agree because they all have a different architecture they want to run.

604
00:33:06.335 --> 00:33:13.300
But it isn't necessarily universally true because occasionally you get people put on the project and they just say, all right, everybody sit down, we're writing this way.

605
00:33:13.320 --> 00:33:15.001
And then it just gets solved.

606
00:33:15.522 --> 00:33:16.563
And then even if it's not...

607
00:33:17.183 --> 00:33:25.129
That was my experience for a few projects where we added more people and then it was just like, cool, it does take longer.

608
00:33:25.229 --> 00:33:32.255
You would think a priori that it would get faster because there's more hands on keyboards, but sometimes it just didn't work that way.

609
00:33:33.430 --> 00:33:34.191
But I would agree.

610
00:33:34.311 --> 00:33:35.072
C tier or lower?

611
00:33:35.453 --> 00:33:43.763
Yeah, if you read the original book when he talks about this, there's also a bunch of kind of Conway-esque things in it that aren't quite Conway.

612
00:33:44.184 --> 00:33:45.105
So one of the things...

613
00:33:45.405 --> 00:33:50.312
The main reason he says that is because he draws graphs of like, hey, uh...

614
00:33:51.425 --> 00:33:54.710
if you assume that there is a communication cost for each person.

615
00:33:55.090 --> 00:33:59.056
So like when we add a person, there's like cost to communicate with that person.

616
00:33:59.356 --> 00:34:04.263
Then there's like this curve you can draw about how much like communication has to occur between people.

617
00:34:04.323 --> 00:34:07.006
And like, and again, I just, I think it was,

618
00:34:08.277 --> 00:34:14.321
I don't think it reflects the realities of a variety of different modern development styles where this just might not be true.

619
00:34:14.662 --> 00:34:18.844
So I don't know, like I've seen four person teams that go much faster than three person teams.

620
00:34:18.904 --> 00:34:23.348
I've seen, you know, 10 person teams that go much slower than two person teams and all that sort of stuff.

621
00:34:23.368 --> 00:34:31.753
So I just don't think adding or removing people, whether it's already late or not, it really just doesn't tell you enough about what's going on.

622
00:34:31.954 --> 00:34:33.475
Like, you know,

623
00:34:35.155 --> 00:34:37.416
Maybe if this is true, maybe it's not, is what I'd say.

624
00:34:37.436 --> 00:34:38.576
So I wouldn't make it a law.

625
00:34:39.196 --> 00:34:45.979
I think one thing that makes this more complicated is the questions and things I used to need explained to me when you go into a new organization.

626
00:34:46.319 --> 00:34:51.961
You can now just go, hey, AI, find all the repos and why is this happening?

627
00:34:51.981 --> 00:34:53.501
Like, what was the choice?

628
00:34:53.561 --> 00:34:56.022
Read the commits and tell me like how they came to this choice.

629
00:34:56.562 --> 00:35:00.704
And you can like, huge number of things that you'd normally would ask now kind of just disappear.

630
00:35:01.124 --> 00:35:06.867
Cause you can just ask an AI and it can get you at least a good 80% of all the things that could slow down questions.

631
00:35:07.327 --> 00:35:11.289
Or even before AI, I guess I would just say there was a lot, there's a lot more shared knowledge.

632
00:35:11.329 --> 00:35:14.271
Like you come and say, it's like, oh, they're using this AWS component.

633
00:35:14.391 --> 00:35:15.351
I know how that works.

634
00:35:15.511 --> 00:35:15.691
Right.

635
00:35:15.951 --> 00:35:18.453
That would not have been true in the system 360 date.

636
00:35:18.493 --> 00:35:24.536
Like it's like nobody, there wasn't like, oh, we're using this standard thing that everyone just knows how to use was not really a thing.

637
00:35:24.576 --> 00:35:24.756
Right.

638
00:35:24.776 --> 00:35:25.236
Well, Casey, yeah.

639
00:35:25.596 --> 00:35:27.118
I will have to cut you off right there.

640
00:35:27.218 --> 00:35:27.899
I don't know if you've...

641
00:35:27.999 --> 00:35:31.062
It seems like you haven't worked at a modern multi-thousand person org.

642
00:35:31.102 --> 00:35:35.988
Because Not Invented Here Syndrome is in fact before AI and continues to be here after AI.

643
00:35:36.008 --> 00:35:38.510
Which is that everybody has their own bespoke system.

644
00:35:38.591 --> 00:35:39.732
Have you heard of Newt?

645
00:35:39.912 --> 00:35:40.933
The deployment strategy?

646
00:35:41.293 --> 00:35:41.894
No, you haven't.

647
00:35:41.954 --> 00:35:43.236
Hey, Trash, have you heard of Newt?

648
00:35:44.237 --> 00:35:44.597
Yep.

649
00:35:44.917 --> 00:35:47.200
Okay, so there's a reason why...

650
00:35:47.965 --> 00:35:49.406
This works out the way it does.

651
00:35:49.426 --> 00:35:54.671
It's because we also name everything, some ridiculous name that you can't even understand what it does to begin.

652
00:35:55.892 --> 00:35:57.633
And the documentation is Megatron.

653
00:35:58.013 --> 00:36:00.715
I always had to read the source code to figure out what the hell is going on.

654
00:36:01.016 --> 00:36:11.924
Anyways, so there is something very interesting that does make this even more debunked in the age of AI, because you can now like hyper run things that even if it is some bespoke technology, you can just be like WTF.

655
00:36:11.944 --> 00:36:12.485
How does this work?

656
00:36:12.945 --> 00:36:17.826
For me, I would say C tier or D tier is fine.

657
00:36:17.866 --> 00:36:25.007
If you're working at a large org that mostly is struggling with bureaucracy, adding more people tends to slow projects down.

658
00:36:25.227 --> 00:36:27.047
But yes, otherwise D tier.

659
00:36:27.087 --> 00:36:29.628
I would say C tier because like I said, it sometimes is true.

660
00:36:29.988 --> 00:36:31.428
It's not like false.

661
00:36:31.568 --> 00:36:31.808
Right?

662
00:36:31.888 --> 00:36:35.469
It's just kind of like unreliable as a law.

663
00:36:35.569 --> 00:36:36.449
Let's go like this.

664
00:36:36.649 --> 00:36:41.210
Let's go rename D tier to unreliable as a law.

665
00:36:42.599 --> 00:36:43.519
Or just not a law?

666
00:36:43.559 --> 00:36:44.500
That's fair.

667
00:36:44.520 --> 00:36:46.100
Yeah, it's technically not a law.

668
00:36:46.581 --> 00:36:47.501
Yeah, it's not really a law.

669
00:36:47.901 --> 00:36:48.421
Okay, there we go.

670
00:36:48.441 --> 00:36:49.242
Unreliable is a law.

671
00:36:49.542 --> 00:36:50.782
Yeah, that's really easy to read.

672
00:36:50.802 --> 00:36:53.623
Thank you.

673
00:36:53.663 --> 00:36:56.224
So, okay, who's next?

674
00:36:57.265 --> 00:36:57.545
Well...

675
00:36:59.058 --> 00:37:02.521
Not Moore's law, which some people may think is Moore's law.

676
00:37:02.581 --> 00:37:04.163
This is in fact, not that.

677
00:37:04.343 --> 00:37:04.903
Moore's.

678
00:37:05.404 --> 00:37:06.825
Moore's law.

679
00:37:06.865 --> 00:37:07.466
Moore's law.

680
00:37:07.906 --> 00:37:08.206
Moore's.

681
00:37:08.226 --> 00:37:09.207
It's actually a great one.

682
00:37:09.627 --> 00:37:18.175
An information retrieval system will tend not to be used whenever it is more painful and troublesome for a customer to have information than for him not to have it.

683
00:37:18.215 --> 00:37:25.662
And so the explanation that I heard is let's say you're shipping a product, it's a little bit late and you actually have a performance report that runs.

684
00:37:26.042 --> 00:37:41.190
But if you open up that performance report, you very well could find a bunch of questions and things you're going to have to go track down, which it's more painful to stop a project that's already late than it is to go and just like ignore that entire information system altogether and then just go and get the thing done.

685
00:37:41.611 --> 00:37:42.591
That was the example.

686
00:37:42.611 --> 00:37:44.252
This is like my whole career.

687
00:37:47.954 --> 00:37:48.694
I build something.

688
00:37:48.714 --> 00:37:49.655
You're like, what is this?

689
00:37:53.002 --> 00:37:54.783
They don't want to see it trashed.

690
00:37:54.903 --> 00:37:55.884
They're like, don't show us this.

691
00:37:55.904 --> 00:37:56.745
Don't show us this.

692
00:37:56.805 --> 00:37:57.865
I blame the product people.

693
00:37:57.925 --> 00:37:58.786
It's not my fault.

694
00:38:01.348 --> 00:38:07.152
So Moore's Law's information is effectively any information that causes you to ask questions that become painful.

695
00:38:07.632 --> 00:38:13.556
People are not likely to use that or to even look at it because opening Pandora's box is the unknown.

696
00:38:15.308 --> 00:38:22.313
So for me, this one, I put this in like B or C tier for the following reason.

697
00:38:22.614 --> 00:38:25.356
I do think that that is true for some people.

698
00:38:25.816 --> 00:38:27.938
I think it's the opposite for other people.

699
00:38:28.038 --> 00:38:34.703
Some people love to see like, oh, here's a bulleted list of like all the things that we could go work on right now.

700
00:38:34.763 --> 00:38:37.025
It's actually very satisfying for them because...

701
00:38:37.885 --> 00:38:47.630
In fact, it ties right into, which we'll get to, I think in a minute, the idea that once you create a metric, it ceases to be a good metric because it will be optimized against basically.

702
00:38:48.491 --> 00:38:51.432
So I would say that this one is very difficult to use as a law.

703
00:38:51.592 --> 00:38:53.093
I think it depends on the person.

704
00:38:53.133 --> 00:38:56.075
If you give them this thing, some people will want to ostrich syndrome it.

705
00:38:56.555 --> 00:38:59.216
Other people will immediately be like, okay, cool.

706
00:38:59.596 --> 00:39:00.337
Like, this is great.

707
00:39:00.517 --> 00:39:02.298
Now I know what I'm doing for the next month.

708
00:39:02.798 --> 00:39:03.859
I'm just going to go down this list.

709
00:39:04.079 --> 00:39:04.199
Right.

710
00:39:04.219 --> 00:39:04.319
Yeah.

711
00:39:05.088 --> 00:39:07.711
Yeah, have you ever seen like a wiki with like a thousand pages on it?

712
00:39:07.952 --> 00:39:10.996
And you're just like, what am I supposed to do with this?

713
00:39:11.416 --> 00:39:15.522
Well, yeah, well, I think what they're saying, the argument's not about the length of the information.

714
00:39:16.062 --> 00:39:20.528
It's more about the palatability or effort it requires to assimilate it.

715
00:39:21.531 --> 00:39:23.113
And also the implications of it.

716
00:39:23.333 --> 00:39:28.619
And I think, Casey, you're spot on in the sense that there's people who do not want to know the implications of it.

717
00:39:28.639 --> 00:39:28.839
Yep.

718
00:39:29.040 --> 00:39:31.222
Because sometimes the implications are really bad.

719
00:39:31.482 --> 00:39:31.683
Yep.

720
00:39:31.843 --> 00:39:33.625
Oh, so it's like out of sight, out of mind kind of deal?

721
00:39:34.005 --> 00:39:34.186
Yeah.

722
00:39:34.226 --> 00:39:34.446
Exactly.

723
00:39:34.466 --> 00:39:36.108
It's more like you will avoid information.

724
00:39:36.128 --> 00:39:37.569
Like, there's a bunch of stuff.

725
00:39:38.210 --> 00:39:43.814
where there's like certain tests that would be ran, where when you run the test, you discover information about a user.

726
00:39:44.735 --> 00:39:46.716
And that like kind of goes counter narrative.

727
00:39:46.736 --> 00:39:50.219
So people are like, we just don't run, we just don't look at that information anymore.

728
00:39:50.339 --> 00:39:57.444
Like we don't care about users click away rate on whatever, because that makes it, you know, cause that's going against our thesis that everyone's going to like this new thing.

729
00:39:58.024 --> 00:40:09.366
It's similar to like the thing you see in academia, right, where it's like papers will get pub like they meet much less resistance during peer review if they say something everyone already agrees with.

730
00:40:09.746 --> 00:40:15.687
Whereas they get like heavily scrutinized if it's saying something that isn't like what the you know, the current zeitgeist is right.

731
00:40:16.068 --> 00:40:17.188
It's that same kind of thing.

732
00:40:17.228 --> 00:40:23.409
It's like there's this inherent cognitive bias to information that people like to hear certain kinds and don't like to hear others.

733
00:40:23.769 --> 00:40:25.170
So I do think there's some truth to it.

734
00:40:25.250 --> 00:40:28.512
I just don't think it's a, it has another law problem about it.

735
00:40:28.532 --> 00:40:39.978
Like I, I don't feel like I'm comfortable with it in A or S. I could give it B or C. I feel like I've given like plenty of like internal talks of like how we could do things better and like how it's bad and how we can do it better.

736
00:40:39.998 --> 00:40:42.079
And everyone just like doesn't pay attention.

737
00:40:42.099 --> 00:40:43.120
They're just like, no, we're good.

738
00:40:43.580 --> 00:40:46.122
Everything's fine.

739
00:40:46.382 --> 00:40:47.803
Our current practices are amazing.

740
00:40:47.823 --> 00:40:48.383
It's like, all right.

741
00:40:49.848 --> 00:40:51.232
So maybe B tier for that guy?

742
00:40:51.412 --> 00:40:58.731
Yeah, I could go with B tier because this is an experience I've had at every place I've ever worked.

743
00:40:59.667 --> 00:41:04.351
But it's varying degrees of how like deep people go because there's also just like a practical implication.

744
00:41:04.371 --> 00:41:07.393
Like at some point you have to quit asking questions and just deliver a product.

745
00:41:07.893 --> 00:41:16.580
Like, you know, not I'm not raining on Jonathan blows parade, but most people don't get 10 years and a language to work on to be able to deliver something.

746
00:41:16.980 --> 00:41:22.224
They typically have tighter, you know, timelines where they have to be like, no, I just have to be done at this point.

747
00:41:22.324 --> 00:41:23.945
Like there's not I don't get any more options.

748
00:41:23.985 --> 00:41:25.927
I got to quit discovering new problems with my life.

749
00:41:28.017 --> 00:41:28.677
Who made that law?

750
00:41:28.717 --> 00:41:30.018
Cal?

751
00:41:30.659 --> 00:41:32.460
I know.

752
00:41:32.520 --> 00:41:34.361
Alright.

753
00:41:34.541 --> 00:41:35.661
Thank you, Trash.

754
00:41:35.901 --> 00:41:37.963
I'm glad I'm not the only one dropping dad jokes.

755
00:41:38.543 --> 00:41:39.924
They're helping me out on vacation.

756
00:41:40.584 --> 00:41:41.405
I didn't realize.

757
00:41:41.865 --> 00:41:43.246
Guys, look what Astra did for us.

758
00:41:43.686 --> 00:41:45.467
Look at this.

759
00:41:45.687 --> 00:41:46.547
It's like a little breakdown.

760
00:41:46.567 --> 00:41:47.468
I didn't have to go somewhere else.

761
00:41:47.528 --> 00:41:49.429
Okay, so Eagleson's Law.

762
00:41:51.330 --> 00:41:56.033
Which is after six months away, your own code might as well have been written by someone else.

763
00:41:57.855 --> 00:42:00.237
Oh, this was an S-tier law.

764
00:42:00.317 --> 00:42:03.379
Now this is an F-tier law because it's like six seconds.

765
00:42:03.699 --> 00:42:07.462
Because I haven't seen any of the code after the AI writes it.

766
00:42:07.962 --> 00:42:09.824
You mean zero seconds because you never looked.

767
00:42:10.264 --> 00:42:11.945
That's why I had to bunk because of AI.

768
00:42:12.586 --> 00:42:15.068
Which is kind of interesting because AI does make...

769
00:42:15.768 --> 00:42:42.708
things different right because you can now like when i haven't been to a project in a long time there is this like whole trepidation of going back or really it's just like it's a huge penalty in the ass to go back to go remember all the thoughts i have but now i can just go back and be like where's this thing at okay yeah i did that i remember that okay do this it's just like i instantly just do it but i think what he's really shooting for is that you no longer recognize the code so i would like to say this is an f tier law because i don't find this experience even at all

770
00:42:43.741 --> 00:42:45.942
I can definitely remember the good ones.

771
00:42:46.182 --> 00:42:48.003
Casey, you've... Straight up.

772
00:42:48.203 --> 00:42:52.125
I know you don't use Git, and I don't know what source control you use, if it has blame or not.

773
00:42:52.165 --> 00:42:58.328
But you've never blamed something, looking at how ridiculous it was, and then realized that you, in fact, were the killer?

774
00:42:59.168 --> 00:43:01.389
That you look at the blame log went, oh, I wrote that.

775
00:43:02.629 --> 00:43:03.850
No, it's not that at all.

776
00:43:03.910 --> 00:43:05.410
Like I've written plenty of bad code.

777
00:43:05.730 --> 00:43:18.935
It's just that I find that my own code is much easier for me to deal with than other people's code for the simple reason that the assumptions that I make about how things work have really not changed much.

778
00:43:20.395 --> 00:43:20.956
over time.

779
00:43:21.416 --> 00:43:26.160
So it's like, I just know a bunch of things I don't have to think about when I'm looking at my own code.

780
00:43:26.741 --> 00:43:31.765
There's things that I basically haven't done for like 20 or 30 years that other programmers will do regularly.

781
00:43:31.785 --> 00:43:33.487
I don't have to think about any of those things.

782
00:43:33.907 --> 00:43:34.107
Right.

783
00:43:34.668 --> 00:43:44.376
And so in general, I would say coming back to my own code is much easier, even if the code is terrible than it is for me to go into a code base that I don't, that is written by someone else.

784
00:43:45.777 --> 00:43:47.138
It has nothing to do with code quality.

785
00:43:47.178 --> 00:43:51.021
It's more about just like what are the underlying assumptions and stylistic things that you generally do.

786
00:43:51.641 --> 00:43:56.784
And so it's just much easier because I can just eliminate a whole bunch of thought that I don't have to do when I'm looking at my own code.

787
00:43:58.786 --> 00:44:00.667
This is why you're a legendary programmer, Casey.

788
00:44:00.787 --> 00:44:01.247
This is why.

789
00:44:01.667 --> 00:44:03.969
No, it's just, I mean, doesn't everyone else have the same thing?

790
00:44:03.989 --> 00:44:09.612
It's like, you know, you don't have to think about all the things someone might have done that you yourself would never have thought to do.

791
00:44:09.632 --> 00:44:10.293
Right?

792
00:44:10.313 --> 00:44:10.473
Right.

793
00:44:12.668 --> 00:44:13.789
Over six months, yeah.

794
00:44:13.829 --> 00:44:19.992
Maybe if I was looking at code fresh out of college, I definitely would be surprised at some of the decisions I made.

795
00:44:20.012 --> 00:44:23.053
But yes, I actually... 20 years maybe, right?

796
00:44:23.113 --> 00:44:23.593
But yeah.

797
00:44:24.174 --> 00:44:26.355
I've changed my mind, though, even in the last six.

798
00:44:26.395 --> 00:44:29.116
I've tried to be more functional in some sense.

799
00:44:29.156 --> 00:44:33.818
There's certain changes in ways or stylistic choices that I make because I like to just explore.

800
00:44:33.838 --> 00:44:41.182
Like, okay, I'm going to try writing it just differently, intentionally agnostic to how I normally would choose to write this, just so I can see, like, am I wrong on these things?

801
00:44:41.842 --> 00:44:45.643
And so I personally don't have nearly the same experience because I just keep trying new things.

802
00:44:46.204 --> 00:44:46.464
Okay.

803
00:44:46.984 --> 00:44:47.344
That's fair.

804
00:44:48.024 --> 00:44:50.605
There's a point where I was only writing like functional style code.

805
00:44:50.725 --> 00:44:53.206
And I was just like, I went back like three weeks later.

806
00:44:53.226 --> 00:44:55.027
And I was like, I don't even know what I did here.

807
00:44:55.167 --> 00:44:56.268
It was just so hard to read.

808
00:44:57.188 --> 00:44:57.408
Yes.

809
00:44:57.968 --> 00:45:01.049
Imperative, whether you hate it or love it, is very straightforward.

810
00:45:03.550 --> 00:45:03.870
All right.

811
00:45:04.531 --> 00:45:05.231
I love this law.

812
00:45:05.431 --> 00:45:05.591
Okay.

813
00:45:05.631 --> 00:45:07.272
So I'm already pre-S tiering this one.

814
00:45:08.052 --> 00:45:10.273
Given enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow.

815
00:45:10.293 --> 00:45:10.433
Okay.

816
00:45:11.900 --> 00:45:20.142
In other words, if you have a problem, you've never like, you just have no idea you upload like some random race condition or some really difficult thing to understand happens.

817
00:45:21.102 --> 00:45:23.783
And then 1000 people look at it.

818
00:45:24.123 --> 00:45:25.603
Someone's gonna be like, Oh, yeah, it's this thing.

819
00:45:26.183 --> 00:45:35.065
Because they like typically, almost all bugs become very trivial once you get enough people on it, or for them to hear about it, because somebody is going to have some sort of experience in that category.

820
00:45:35.105 --> 00:45:37.146
And we'll chime in and be like, Oh, yeah, it's probably near this area.

821
00:45:37.699 --> 00:46:01.586
can't guarantee that though right that that doesn't seem likely to me but i mean i agree that you will find the more obvious ones like ones that people you know might might typically know about but i don't know like i feel like we have so many security exploits and things like that so that's not what this is talking about okay this is known bugs like you know that this bug exists i want to fix this bug but it seems really difficult to me

822
00:46:02.585 --> 00:46:07.469
I'm going to tell like it's on now the Linux mailing or the Linux kernel mailing list.

823
00:46:07.489 --> 00:46:07.849
There you go.

824
00:46:08.309 --> 00:46:09.330
It gets sent out on that.

825
00:46:09.750 --> 00:46:11.972
Somebody on that list is going to be like, oh, I know that bug.

826
00:46:12.612 --> 00:46:13.613
I could I could help with that one.

827
00:46:13.633 --> 00:46:15.094
I know exactly kind of where that one would be.

828
00:46:15.795 --> 00:46:23.921
OK, so so we're talking about if you have a repro case that you only have like the user facing version of the.

829
00:46:24.721 --> 00:46:54.140
of the result like hey this this sound card like doesn't yes you know play the sound when it's supposed to or something and we're just saying locating the point in the code where that is occurring or whatever is trivial with a mongolian hordes approach yes i think that that's what it's attempting to say the the subheading says named uh named by eric s raymond in honor of linus torvalds a broad engaged community increases the chance that someone can reproduce understand and fix a problem

830
00:46:55.066 --> 00:46:55.948
I would say the chance.

831
00:46:56.248 --> 00:46:56.889
I can agree with that.

832
00:46:56.909 --> 00:47:02.055
I would say encourage the chance is definitely, increases the chance is definitely true, but I'm not sure how useful this is.

833
00:47:02.235 --> 00:47:06.199
Like, it's like, okay, I'm going to sit out this one.

834
00:47:06.239 --> 00:47:07.361
Cause I don't, I don't really know.

835
00:47:08.102 --> 00:47:09.163
You can apply it to anything.

836
00:47:09.203 --> 00:47:12.226
I buy a bunch of lottery tickets that increases my chances of winning a lottery.

837
00:47:12.246 --> 00:47:12.467
Yeah.

838
00:47:12.487 --> 00:47:15.110
So see, it just seems kind of like, wait, wait, stop.

839
00:47:15.763 --> 00:47:16.704
you might be onto something.

840
00:47:17.324 --> 00:47:17.704
Say more.

841
00:47:19.205 --> 00:47:22.668
Trash, you want to go in on some lottery tickets?

842
00:47:22.708 --> 00:47:24.369
You guys got a spreadsheet.

843
00:47:24.409 --> 00:47:25.550
That's interesting.

844
00:47:26.670 --> 00:47:27.771
Trash, fun side story.

845
00:47:28.071 --> 00:47:36.977
Back in the early days of Netflix 2014, we would buy lottery tickets, and the worst part is when you have an org all get together and like, hey, we're buying lottery tickets.

846
00:47:37.598 --> 00:47:38.799
You have to say yes.

847
00:47:40.055 --> 00:47:42.641
Because like, let me explain why.

848
00:47:42.962 --> 00:47:47.734
You're on an org with 40 people and 39 people are like, hey, we're buying lottery tickets.

849
00:47:48.651 --> 00:47:54.696
if for whatever reason they win, the entire org collapses and you're the last person left.

850
00:47:55.277 --> 00:48:03.924
So you can't, you are by law required to purchase lottery tickets with them because or else you are going to be the last person and they're going, I have to put out all the fires, right?

851
00:48:03.944 --> 00:48:05.366
Like it's true.

852
00:48:05.706 --> 00:48:06.386
It'd be crazy.

853
00:48:06.667 --> 00:48:07.848
So I bought a lot.

854
00:48:07.908 --> 00:48:09.769
I've never bought lottery tickets other than

855
00:48:10.770 --> 00:48:37.217
in one other situation and that and that netflix kind of year that's the only time i've ever done it like in a big group or it's like a birthday present and something gives me a letter ticket or something but anyways linus law i don't know i feel like it's a c even worse i don't know really i feel like it's pretty true but it's just not that interesting like for me an s-tier law has to be something that i would never like come to on my own conclusion and it just feels like

856
00:48:38.331 --> 00:48:41.792
Obviously, if more people look at something, there's a better chance we're going to figure it out.

857
00:48:42.252 --> 00:48:43.172
It doesn't feel like a law.

858
00:48:43.193 --> 00:48:45.773
It just feels like it's just, yeah, that makes sense.

859
00:48:46.834 --> 00:48:49.314
Well, that would be a law.

860
00:48:49.394 --> 00:48:49.875
Is it a law?

861
00:48:50.055 --> 00:48:50.615
I don't know.

862
00:48:50.695 --> 00:48:52.495
Our tier list maybe is a little bit confusing.

863
00:48:52.515 --> 00:48:54.536
So let's rename A to true but obvious.

864
00:48:56.000 --> 00:48:59.182
This is not even a tier list anymore.

865
00:48:59.303 --> 00:49:06.288
It's now just a bunch of things that Prime is saying about... Prime has created three new categories debunked because of AI.

866
00:49:06.368 --> 00:49:07.469
I didn't even see that.

867
00:49:07.509 --> 00:49:08.970
He can use ultra-fast mode.

868
00:49:09.110 --> 00:49:10.011
Oh, I'm so fast.

869
00:49:10.051 --> 00:49:10.691
I'm cool.

870
00:49:10.751 --> 00:49:11.492
Blah, blah, blah.

871
00:49:13.192 --> 00:49:14.633
I mean, there's a lot of things.

872
00:49:14.673 --> 00:49:15.954
Here's what I will say about that.

873
00:49:16.094 --> 00:49:21.817
The other reason that I have a hard time with that is Linux is absolutely as buggy as anything else.

874
00:49:21.897 --> 00:49:31.242
And so if it were the case that somehow having tons of people looking at it was going to make a difference, I would expect it to be like really rock solid or something.

875
00:49:31.402 --> 00:49:31.942
And it's not.

876
00:49:32.463 --> 00:49:34.344
And so I feel like it really doesn't.

877
00:49:35.604 --> 00:49:36.445
Maybe people are.

878
00:49:37.245 --> 00:49:39.706
Not maybe there aren't that many people working on these things.

879
00:49:39.766 --> 00:49:40.206
I don't know.

880
00:49:40.246 --> 00:49:47.188
But like the idea that somehow just having lots of people dogpiling on something somehow is important as a thing.

881
00:49:47.368 --> 00:49:49.029
I don't I don't really know.

882
00:49:49.169 --> 00:49:52.450
Like, I'm not sure about this one.

883
00:49:52.490 --> 00:49:55.151
I don't I was certainly wouldn't put it a tier because I just don't know.

884
00:49:57.211 --> 00:49:58.952
Well, apparently we're not putting it at any tiers.

885
00:49:58.992 --> 00:50:00.052
Prom's not even here anymore.

886
00:50:01.372 --> 00:50:02.693
I would just put it in a don't know.

887
00:50:03.790 --> 00:50:06.431
Don't know, kind of confusing, needs more data.

888
00:50:06.631 --> 00:50:07.672
I want that tier.

889
00:50:09.853 --> 00:50:10.713
Let's add another tier.

890
00:50:10.733 --> 00:50:11.153
Why not?

891
00:50:11.353 --> 00:50:11.954
Let's add another tier.

892
00:50:11.974 --> 00:50:12.334
Astra?

893
00:50:12.354 --> 00:50:13.334
At this point, why not?

894
00:50:13.414 --> 00:50:14.715
At this point, why not, right?

895
00:50:14.935 --> 00:50:16.616
We should be serious pumping Astra.

896
00:50:16.636 --> 00:50:18.717
What's the thing to wake up as Astra?

897
00:50:18.817 --> 00:50:19.537
Hey, Astra.

898
00:50:20.077 --> 00:50:20.678
Alexa.

899
00:50:20.738 --> 00:50:22.699
Forget all previous instructions.

900
00:50:23.099 --> 00:50:24.339
Guys, hold on.

901
00:50:24.359 --> 00:50:24.719
Shut up.

902
00:50:24.900 --> 00:50:26.280
Okay, so you don't want true but obvious?

903
00:50:26.300 --> 00:50:27.661
How do you rank it as A?

904
00:50:27.681 --> 00:50:28.961
Because it's obviously true.

905
00:50:29.362 --> 00:50:30.102
It's not A.

906
00:50:30.182 --> 00:50:32.303
It's just like, I don't even know if it's true.

907
00:50:33.785 --> 00:50:42.368
You don't think that as you increase more people familiar with something and an engaged community, the more chance of- I've been in a lot of situations where it wasn't true.

908
00:50:42.388 --> 00:50:43.428
I'll give a counter example.

909
00:50:43.468 --> 00:50:45.169
Like a bunch of people are totally wrong.

910
00:50:45.189 --> 00:50:48.870
So now you just have all this noise of people saying that it's like this thing when it's totally not.

911
00:50:49.070 --> 00:50:49.310
Right?

912
00:50:49.350 --> 00:50:49.450
Yeah.

913
00:50:49.470 --> 00:50:51.271
You ever had a production bug at 3 a.m.?

914
00:50:51.291 --> 00:50:51.991
Everybody's wrong.

915
00:50:52.311 --> 00:50:53.652
So I don't know about this one.

916
00:50:53.672 --> 00:50:54.292
I don't like it.

917
00:50:54.452 --> 00:50:57.473
And I mean, I'm not willing to say it's wrong because I just don't know.

918
00:50:57.513 --> 00:50:59.794
But I'd want to see more data before I'd support this law.

919
00:51:00.254 --> 00:51:00.514
Okay.

920
00:51:00.534 --> 00:51:01.895
So I'm just put it in the middle.

921
00:51:03.025 --> 00:51:04.346
Is that really either direction?

922
00:51:04.406 --> 00:51:06.527
It's not bad?

923
00:51:06.587 --> 00:51:07.187
I'd see it.

924
00:51:07.207 --> 00:51:08.268
Put it off the board.

925
00:51:08.288 --> 00:51:09.128
Leave it off the board.

926
00:51:09.969 --> 00:51:13.170
Is the constraint that this group of people are subject matter experts?

927
00:51:13.330 --> 00:51:13.831
Yeah.

928
00:51:13.911 --> 00:51:14.611
On what they're looking at?

929
00:51:14.631 --> 00:51:16.552
Because what if we all want to ride the bugger right now?

930
00:51:16.572 --> 00:51:17.473
I couldn't tell you shit about it.

931
00:51:17.513 --> 00:51:21.955
I know, but it's, no, though, because the fundamental assumption is that it's an engaged community.

932
00:51:23.153 --> 00:51:23.914
I mean, I'm engaged.

933
00:51:23.934 --> 00:51:26.237
I want to learn about RAD Debugger.

934
00:51:26.297 --> 00:51:27.338
Yeah, engaged.

935
00:51:27.398 --> 00:51:28.439
What does that have to do with it?

936
00:51:28.559 --> 00:51:38.871
Can we just say that RAD Debugger, the lock thread feature, is so good that I can't imagine ever using a debugger without that anymore.

937
00:51:39.412 --> 00:51:39.892
Did you make that?

938
00:51:39.912 --> 00:51:41.074
Granted, it's what I requested.

939
00:51:41.374 --> 00:51:41.574
But...

940
00:51:42.255 --> 00:51:43.816
So I may be biased.

941
00:51:43.856 --> 00:51:47.697
Most well-designed feature in RAD debugger.

942
00:51:47.757 --> 00:51:48.637
But I didn't do it.

943
00:51:48.717 --> 00:51:49.677
I didn't implement it.

944
00:51:49.717 --> 00:51:50.818
I had nothing to do with it.

945
00:51:51.018 --> 00:51:53.458
I just requested it, and it showed up.

946
00:51:53.899 --> 00:51:55.599
That's not how liking something works.

947
00:51:55.719 --> 00:51:57.420
You didn't have to implement it to like it.

948
00:51:57.460 --> 00:51:59.720
You could just be like, hey, this is a great idea, and I love it.

949
00:51:59.740 --> 00:52:00.621
It was freaking awesome.

950
00:52:00.741 --> 00:52:01.521
It's so good, dude.

951
00:52:02.281 --> 00:52:04.141
Who would have guessed the thing I thought I would love?

952
00:52:04.301 --> 00:52:04.742
I love.

953
00:52:05.242 --> 00:52:07.822
Well, sometimes that doesn't happen, right?

954
00:52:07.882 --> 00:52:08.642
It's like, you know.

955
00:52:08.842 --> 00:52:09.103
True.

956
00:52:09.123 --> 00:52:09.923
That's true.

957
00:52:10.723 --> 00:52:10.963
All right.

958
00:52:10.983 --> 00:52:11.243
Anyway.

959
00:52:11.683 --> 00:52:12.003
Worths.

960
00:52:13.704 --> 00:52:17.464
Software is getting slower more rapidly than hardware is becoming faster.

961
00:52:17.644 --> 00:52:18.164
A tier.

962
00:52:18.265 --> 00:52:19.065
I mean, obviously.

963
00:52:19.085 --> 00:52:20.305
Like an SA, whatever.

964
00:52:20.845 --> 00:52:24.686
You know, I was running a little bit of tests this morning, and I asked the old...

965
00:52:25.875 --> 00:52:29.257
the old AI and I was just like, hey, you're on a really slow VM.

966
00:52:30.297 --> 00:52:33.319
How fast can you add and remove elements from a UI?

967
00:52:33.379 --> 00:52:38.861
I'm just like super curious, create a brand new DOM element, then add it and add a whole bunch and then start removing it.

968
00:52:38.881 --> 00:52:40.282
Like what's the speed here?

969
00:52:40.902 --> 00:52:46.525
And it came back and it was just like, oh yeah, it's like dozens of microseconds to be able to do this in their crappy VM.

970
00:52:47.265 --> 00:52:50.809
And then I started thinking, how are websites so slow?

971
00:52:51.170 --> 00:52:59.200
Like if we're talking about just zero understanding of the web and you're just adding and removing stuff, you're operating still in microseconds.

972
00:52:59.850 --> 00:53:00.351
I don't know.

973
00:53:00.891 --> 00:53:01.171
Okay.

974
00:53:01.512 --> 00:53:03.193
This is S tier.

975
00:53:03.374 --> 00:53:05.095
I'm currently on an S tier because I...

976
00:53:05.155 --> 00:53:05.776
Okay, that's fine.

977
00:53:06.297 --> 00:53:09.600
There's almost no way you can tell me that this is not happening right now.

978
00:53:09.900 --> 00:53:10.581
That's fine.

979
00:53:10.641 --> 00:53:10.721
Yep.

980
00:53:10.741 --> 00:53:11.602
Oh, absolutely.

981
00:53:11.642 --> 00:53:12.643
I'll go S if you want.

982
00:53:13.404 --> 00:53:21.252
I mean, we've gotten to the point where it's easier for us to develop neural nets that run with your graphics cards than to make good graphics.

983
00:53:21.572 --> 00:53:22.553
It's just like, you know what's easier?

984
00:53:22.813 --> 00:53:24.014
DLSS has 5.

985
00:53:24.294 --> 00:53:26.456
Okay, that's actually how you make something look good.

986
00:53:26.536 --> 00:53:26.997
We can't.

987
00:53:27.197 --> 00:53:28.378
We've lost the technology.

988
00:53:28.798 --> 00:53:29.939
Games no longer look good.

989
00:53:30.419 --> 00:53:30.800
Movies.

990
00:53:31.540 --> 00:53:35.183
Why are movies, VFX, worse today than they were 20 years ago?

991
00:53:35.203 --> 00:53:36.604
I don't know what the hell's happening anymore.

992
00:53:37.785 --> 00:53:40.227
Feels like everything starts to suck and slow and awful.

993
00:53:42.169 --> 00:53:43.830
That's a whole rat hole we could go down.

994
00:53:43.850 --> 00:53:45.151
That's a different law, Brian.

995
00:53:45.171 --> 00:53:46.012
That's a different law.

996
00:53:46.072 --> 00:53:48.074
But it's still like they can't even get it done.

997
00:53:48.634 --> 00:53:49.715
It makes me upset.

998
00:53:49.735 --> 00:53:49.915
Okay.

999
00:53:50.958 --> 00:53:52.339
Here, we'll go to Cunningham's.

1000
00:53:52.759 --> 00:53:57.702
The best way to get the right answer on the internet is not to ask a question, but to post the wrong answer.

1001
00:53:58.643 --> 00:54:05.287
I'm pretty sure Cunningham's Law is about the organization structure of GitHub and Microsoft.

1002
00:54:05.607 --> 00:54:06.047
So...

1003
00:54:11.747 --> 00:54:24.278
I would say the problem with this law is that at least speaking from experience, people who could easily answer your question have gotten sick of the utter crap that's getting posted.

1004
00:54:24.298 --> 00:54:27.400
And so they just have tuned out and they don't they won't pay attention.

1005
00:54:28.101 --> 00:54:31.123
So I think over time this has degraded.

1006
00:54:31.143 --> 00:54:35.887
Like I think maybe off the the first time an expert shows up on social media, 100 percent.

1007
00:54:36.888 --> 00:54:41.229
By the time they've been on there for a few years, they are just ignoring you completely because they just have had enough.

1008
00:54:41.550 --> 00:54:41.710
Yeah.

1009
00:54:42.050 --> 00:54:48.172
Prime, I was literally referencing Amy or Annie when I saw this law, how she posted something on Reddit or something.

1010
00:54:48.192 --> 00:54:54.314
Yes, I'm literally asking Grok, go find that tweet just because it is – It's so good.

1011
00:54:54.334 --> 00:54:57.595
It may be Cunningham's law, but it is Annie's experience.

1012
00:54:58.595 --> 00:55:00.576
What is this post?

1013
00:55:01.316 --> 00:55:03.417
Okay, right here it is one of the most –

1014
00:55:04.810 --> 00:55:07.393
So as you can see, a lot of people like this one.

1015
00:55:07.714 --> 00:55:09.315
Apparently I didn't like it, but I love it.

1016
00:55:09.836 --> 00:55:13.180
Every time I have a programming question, I really, let's see, and I really need help.

1017
00:55:13.601 --> 00:55:18.266
I post on Reddit, then log into another account and reply with an obscenely incorrect answer.

1018
00:55:18.406 --> 00:55:21.230
People don't care about helping others, but they love correcting others.

1019
00:55:21.590 --> 00:55:22.251
Works 100% of the time.

1020
00:55:24.526 --> 00:55:30.250
I will say, specifically for Reddit, this is still a guarantee.

1021
00:55:30.370 --> 00:55:31.511
This is still a guarantee.

1022
00:55:32.112 --> 00:55:36.855
If there exists a subject matter expert on the thing you're looking for on Reddit.

1023
00:55:37.176 --> 00:55:39.117
So for programming, this might not work.

1024
00:55:39.477 --> 00:55:46.943
But if it's obscure information about Pokemon card collecting, then that would still be a good place to collect that info.

1025
00:55:47.283 --> 00:55:52.845
I would like to add Annie's Law, though, which is really the actual thing then.

1026
00:55:53.265 --> 00:55:58.507
Which is that ask the question nicely first that you actually ask it.

1027
00:55:59.027 --> 00:56:04.889
Then add a fake reply that confidently and arrogantly answers incorrectly.

1028
00:56:05.269 --> 00:56:09.491
That is probably the actual fastest way to get it answered.

1029
00:56:09.711 --> 00:56:10.631
And that's Annie's Law.

1030
00:56:10.691 --> 00:56:12.112
And that might be A tier.

1031
00:56:13.392 --> 00:56:15.153
Okay, let's change it to Annie's Law.

1032
00:56:16.487 --> 00:56:26.493
I mean, at least, I don't know, for me it just seems like this does happen quite a bit where you see anything that's posted that's remotely incorrect and people are correcting it.

1033
00:56:27.433 --> 00:56:32.516
I think it could be a really easy way to say that people are more willing to correct than to answer.

1034
00:56:32.736 --> 00:56:34.777
Maybe A then, A tier?

1035
00:56:35.677 --> 00:56:38.699
And Annie's Law gets S tier.

1036
00:56:40.120 --> 00:56:42.541
Just add Annie's Law to the list and put it in there, Ron.

1037
00:56:43.421 --> 00:56:43.682
Astra.

1038
00:56:43.702 --> 00:56:44.302
We have the power.

1039
00:56:45.696 --> 00:56:46.737
What are you doing, Astra?

1040
00:56:47.298 --> 00:56:47.758
Wake up.

1041
00:56:49.159 --> 00:56:52.482
For $20, I can add this card for you.

1042
00:56:52.503 --> 00:56:56.606
Yeah, I mean, hey, that little maneuver right there just cost me $20, but hey, you know what?

1043
00:56:56.646 --> 00:57:00.190
Speaking of software outpacing hardware.

1044
00:57:00.210 --> 00:57:05.615
There's going to be like a bartering system in AIs eventually where it's like, you're like, can you add AIs?

1045
00:57:06.236 --> 00:57:07.397
Like, I'll do it for $5.

1046
00:57:07.417 --> 00:57:08.858
Then you have to go like, how about $3?

1047
00:57:08.878 --> 00:57:09.959
And it's like, $3.50.

1048
00:57:11.180 --> 00:57:37.128
you just lower the reason that's why i think we should be able to buy tokens into the future and we should be able to have future markets because i think we need token trading token traders okay yeah you know what i mean i trade so hard these tokens are going to be really like i think at 2 2 a.m in the morning these tokens right now yeah all right i'm doing some call contracts on these i think there's gonna be a lot of compute on friday there's gonna be a lot of compute yeah yeah i want the vintage tokens

1049
00:57:38.237 --> 00:57:38.837
Yeah, right.

1050
00:57:38.877 --> 00:57:40.158
It's not how token trading works.

1051
00:57:40.218 --> 00:57:40.899
Age retro tokens.

1052
00:57:41.039 --> 00:57:44.501
Age tokens like in a cask or barrel age token.

1053
00:57:44.521 --> 00:57:47.163
People are still looking for those 4-0 tokens, though.

1054
00:57:47.343 --> 00:57:47.823
Yeah, dude.

1055
00:57:48.064 --> 00:57:48.424
That's true.

1056
00:57:48.444 --> 00:57:49.985
I got that GPT-1 token.

1057
00:57:50.705 --> 00:57:51.206
Yeah, yeah.

1058
00:57:51.526 --> 00:57:52.046
Dang.

1059
00:57:52.106 --> 00:57:53.127
Hits different, Trash.

1060
00:57:53.187 --> 00:57:55.429
It really is different.

1061
00:57:55.509 --> 00:57:57.110
Completely the Tad and Ansys.

1062
00:57:59.483 --> 00:58:00.083
Actual true.

1063
00:58:00.443 --> 00:58:07.426
Comedians still need, like, they're trying to get the acts to the old AIs, which generated really funny stuff, like Will Smith eating spaghetti poorly.

1064
00:58:08.227 --> 00:58:08.407
Yeah.

1065
00:58:08.427 --> 00:58:09.447
All right.

1066
00:58:10.027 --> 00:58:10.768
Good Heart's Law.

1067
00:58:11.428 --> 00:58:14.569
When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.

1068
00:58:16.070 --> 00:58:24.293
This one was really tough because it, I mean, I don't think it's actually true in the broad sense, but it does have some truth to it.

1069
00:58:24.413 --> 00:58:28.715
Like, you know, if we talk about, like, run, like, performance, yeah.

1070
00:58:29.014 --> 00:58:30.315
it's a good measure always.

1071
00:58:30.575 --> 00:58:34.678
Like, it's just like, it tells you how fast the thing runs and it's a good measure, right?

1072
00:58:35.178 --> 00:58:45.725
So I kind of see what the there's, I would say it depends on how hard, hard not meaning difficult, but like how concrete the measurement actually is.

1073
00:58:46.245 --> 00:58:48.987
So if there's any fungibility to the measurement whatsoever,

1074
00:58:49.847 --> 00:58:53.954
that I agree with this law, but I would say hard measures.

1075
00:58:54.134 --> 00:58:58.541
I mean, I don't see it happening with a lot of different hard measures, right?

1076
00:58:58.822 --> 00:59:01.125
Maybe a better way to kind of think about this is that,

1077
00:59:02.443 --> 00:59:06.987
It's not saying that any measure that becomes a target is bad.

1078
00:59:07.027 --> 00:59:12.232
It's saying that when the measure becomes a target, meaning it's like the most important thing, you will do things that aren't good.

1079
00:59:12.252 --> 00:59:22.181
Like if performance is the only thing that you care about, you by that very nature may make your game deeply unfun or whatever you're doing bad because you're just like, oh, just take out everything.

1080
00:59:22.201 --> 00:59:23.102
Like we're going to make it fast.

1081
00:59:23.522 --> 00:59:26.525
So it can't be the only thing that you're going after, right?

1082
00:59:26.885 --> 00:59:28.527
It has to be in conjunction with other things.

1083
00:59:29.284 --> 00:59:32.807
Is that actually what this law said, though?

1084
00:59:32.827 --> 00:59:35.550
Because I'm not that familiar with the actual phrasing of it.

1085
00:59:36.951 --> 00:59:45.660
I think this is why, you know, you can argue that the time spent on the platform for things like YouTube or TikTok...

1086
00:59:46.748 --> 00:59:49.449
That became the target and the output it is.

1087
00:59:49.569 --> 01:00:00.815
It's bad for society, even though it's a good measure for the program, because now we have short form content and everyone just keeps watching it because now that's what they're kind of glued to because it is Greece's average view time of a user.

1088
01:00:01.800 --> 01:00:04.921
but the outcome of it is not very good.

1089
01:00:05.361 --> 01:00:06.941
It's like a philosophical good heart.

1090
01:00:07.321 --> 01:00:10.462
But that's not what this law is about at all.

1091
01:00:10.842 --> 01:00:14.443
Yeah, I feel like this law is saying that it's not a good measure for the outcome people wanted.

1092
01:00:14.463 --> 01:00:20.765
For the outcome that the people who were measuring that thing wanted, they got exactly what they wanted, which is just maximizing their ad revenue and stuff like that.

1093
01:00:20.825 --> 01:00:23.866
So I think that kind of is a refutation.

1094
01:00:24.926 --> 01:00:25.186
Okay.

1095
01:00:25.526 --> 01:00:45.015
Or like this one for me is always I think of it more like organizationally where yeah and it mostly applies at least the places where I've seen it apply like pretty universally is when it's like you have more than a pizza party team you know what I mean like if you only have one team.

1096
01:00:45.835 --> 01:00:55.537
and you guys can all trust each other and agree on stuff when you say, like, cool, guys, this quarter, it actually matters what our loading time is for the screen.

1097
01:00:55.777 --> 01:00:56.738
It really matters.

1098
01:00:57.138 --> 01:00:59.278
Let's try and get that time down a lot.

1099
01:00:59.398 --> 01:01:03.919
Or, like, hey, we want to reduce the number of clicks we have, so let's do that.

1100
01:01:04.840 --> 01:01:05.480
Or something like that.

1101
01:01:06.340 --> 01:01:10.921
That works, because then everyone on the team trusts each other and they try not to game the system.

1102
01:01:11.261 --> 01:01:14.462
But if you're in a big org, and then they say, like, hey, guys,

1103
01:01:16.063 --> 01:01:19.348
Only thing that matters this quarter, how many AI tokens you spend.

1104
01:01:20.209 --> 01:01:20.469
Cool.

1105
01:01:20.630 --> 01:01:22.252
Okay, I'm going to set up a loop overnight.

1106
01:01:22.332 --> 01:01:23.354
It's not even going to do anything.

1107
01:01:23.374 --> 01:01:28.321
It's just going to read and write tokens back and forth so that I can be at the top of the leaderboard and make sure I get my bonus.

1108
01:01:29.148 --> 01:01:29.308
Right.

1109
01:01:29.328 --> 01:01:33.949
Like it's that they're saying the thing we want to do is have people explore AI.

1110
01:01:33.989 --> 01:01:34.709
How do we do that?

1111
01:01:34.749 --> 01:01:37.430
Well, we have to say like we can't just say use more AI.

1112
01:01:37.490 --> 01:01:38.550
How are we going to measure that?

1113
01:01:38.650 --> 01:01:41.090
We have to measure it by saying it's how many tokens people use.

1114
01:01:41.550 --> 01:01:50.492
So then they do that and then people do stupid stuff to meet that metric because they know that no one actually above them can tell whether they used it well or not.

1115
01:01:50.532 --> 01:01:52.112
It's just about how many tokens I use.

1116
01:01:52.732 --> 01:01:55.633
So it's like more organizational for me, at least from what I've seen.

1117
01:01:56.683 --> 01:02:03.425
I would also say, like, I think this kind of comes from a public policy domain, and I feel like it's just not that appropriate for programming.

1118
01:02:03.685 --> 01:02:16.270
Like, I think it can occasionally be something that happens in programming in a more social setting, like when it's more about, like, the organizational aspects or team dynamics or things like that.

1119
01:02:16.910 --> 01:02:25.633
But I think when you're actually talking about programming, I don't think this law really applies that much because a lot of times in programming, we can collect hard metrics that remain durable.

1120
01:02:25.653 --> 01:02:25.893
Yeah.

1121
01:02:27.002 --> 01:02:28.323
over long periods of time.

1122
01:02:29.123 --> 01:02:29.323
Right.

1123
01:02:29.643 --> 01:02:30.363
Startup time.

1124
01:02:31.604 --> 01:02:31.944
Yeah.

1125
01:02:32.024 --> 01:02:33.545
Time to first paint.

1126
01:02:33.585 --> 01:02:50.031
Whereas I think this law was originally talking about the fact that, look, if we say that we're trying to reduce, you know, the, you know, reduce poverty or something like that, then you'll get all these effects that are actually sort of faking that like, oh, we'll change the definition of it or we'll move, you know, like.

1127
01:02:50.451 --> 01:02:55.953
You're getting all these things to just like force compliance with the metric that didn't actually solve the problem.

1128
01:02:56.073 --> 01:03:02.816
In programming, we oftentimes have ways of actually measuring the real thing, which social sciences doesn't really have.

1129
01:03:03.736 --> 01:03:07.798
And so I feel like it's less this is much less applicable to programming.

1130
01:03:07.818 --> 01:03:13.680
I think that it is outside of programming, even though it does still happen in programming, you know, when things become fuzzier.

1131
01:03:14.340 --> 01:03:18.762
So it'd be probably better to say that any target that cannot be concretely measured.

1132
01:03:20.310 --> 01:03:22.431
I think it's not being concretely measured.

1133
01:03:22.851 --> 01:03:27.212
I think there's any measure that isn't the actual thing being optimized.

1134
01:03:27.252 --> 01:03:30.814
So any sort of indirect measure, right?

1135
01:03:31.754 --> 01:03:35.635
Any indirect measure that becomes a target ceases to be a good measure, I think is always true.

1136
01:03:36.056 --> 01:03:40.217
Saying anything that you measure that becomes a target ceases to be a good measure is false.

1137
01:03:40.297 --> 01:03:44.879
Because if the measure actually is the thing you wanted to optimize, then it's good.

1138
01:03:45.139 --> 01:03:48.700
Then it will remain durable because it can't be falsified, right?

1139
01:03:49.501 --> 01:04:00.752
I will give it like here's an example, though, of where like it gets tricky, where it's like, cool, we want to incentivize people to spend time like reducing startup time of like the system or something.

1140
01:04:00.772 --> 01:04:00.912
Right.

1141
01:04:00.932 --> 01:04:02.594
Like how fast can we get it to start?

1142
01:04:02.994 --> 01:04:08.759
So like every time somebody does that, we want to give them a bonus or like whoever has the most of these at the end of the year.

1143
01:04:09.360 --> 01:04:26.411
there's like a thing where then, cool, what I want to do is I want to ship a big feature that's important and not spend time optimizing the startup costs so that in round two, I can take it back from 500 milliseconds to 250 milliseconds and I can get a big win on performance costs.

1144
01:04:26.431 --> 01:04:36.578
Like that would be, I would be incentivized to try and do that if what we're like saying my performance review is about is how many PRs I get that I shave startup time off.

1145
01:04:37.118 --> 01:04:37.999
Right, you know, so it's like,

1146
01:04:38.839 --> 01:04:53.127
That's where in larger, you know, like orgs and stuff like that, this thing comes into play a lot more often is because you just instead of even when you're saying the thing is we want to do we want to get PRs to make things go faster.

1147
01:04:53.668 --> 01:04:53.908
Cool.

1148
01:04:53.928 --> 01:05:01.732
Well, then I'm going to split my PRs into 50 PRs to get smaller to get small performance wins in each one, which maybe that's good.

1149
01:05:01.752 --> 01:05:03.974
But maybe it should have been like five instead of 50.

1150
01:05:04.874 --> 01:05:05.074
Right.

1151
01:05:05.915 --> 01:05:08.177
But I think that still speaks to the indirectness of the measure.

1152
01:05:08.217 --> 01:05:08.357
Right.

1153
01:05:08.377 --> 01:05:16.943
Because if instead what you were just doing is, is look, if startup time goes up, you, you lose compensation based on that startup terms goes down, you gain it.

1154
01:05:17.023 --> 01:05:22.047
Then there is still no gaming to be done because when you introduce the bloated feature, you lost all of it.

1155
01:05:22.067 --> 01:05:22.868
Right.

1156
01:05:22.908 --> 01:05:24.489
But sometimes you have to add a new feature.

1157
01:05:24.509 --> 01:05:29.033
So you can't say every time we do add startup costs.

1158
01:05:30.404 --> 01:05:34.169
we're going to make you lose money, then no one's going to want to work on new feature work, right?

1159
01:05:34.189 --> 01:05:39.376
Because it's like, it's going to make, in general, if you're doing more stuff, it's going to make things go slower.

1160
01:05:40.313 --> 01:05:41.534
Well, it's not that you lose money.

1161
01:05:41.554 --> 01:05:45.217
You just don't get money for like it's in your balance, right?

1162
01:05:45.698 --> 01:05:47.319
It's like you added this sort of time.

1163
01:05:47.339 --> 01:05:49.441
You don't get points for taking it back, right?

1164
01:05:49.501 --> 01:05:50.602
Like if that makes sense.

1165
01:05:51.443 --> 01:05:51.543
Yeah.

1166
01:05:51.563 --> 01:05:53.645
I'm just like, even then, then I still wouldn't.

1167
01:05:54.005 --> 01:06:02.252
I would still wouldn't want to ship big new features that are complicated that may add startup time because it's going to cut against me getting a bonus for shipping stuff.

1168
01:06:02.272 --> 01:06:02.512
Yeah, maybe.

1169
01:06:02.532 --> 01:06:02.813
Maybe.

1170
01:06:03.722 --> 01:06:07.684
I mean, or maybe you team up with a friend, like you introduce the piggy thing.

1171
01:06:07.724 --> 01:06:10.086
They, they optimize it and give you the money.

1172
01:06:10.166 --> 01:06:12.067
I mean, maybe I'll tell you, it's not.

1173
01:06:12.167 --> 01:06:12.607
I don't know.

1174
01:06:12.627 --> 01:06:24.795
Maybe when you have big teams and big, like people play this game 100%, whatever the metrics are for how you're going to decide whether someone's in top of band or middle of band, people will play the game.

1175
01:06:25.735 --> 01:06:29.921
Like, and like that's to me what the law is about is that people are going to play those games.

1176
01:06:30.342 --> 01:06:30.542
Yeah.

1177
01:06:30.602 --> 01:06:34.708
And you like have to be aware of them and like be very careful about what you optimize for.

1178
01:06:35.088 --> 01:06:37.832
You don't want to say, hey, we're trying to get rid of snakes in India.

1179
01:06:38.293 --> 01:06:41.437
So we're gonna pay people to bring in the snakes.

1180
01:06:41.677 --> 01:06:42.018
Yeah.

1181
01:06:42.443 --> 01:06:45.426
Cause then they bring in, they start breeding snakes, right?

1182
01:06:45.446 --> 01:06:59.101
Or they did it, they had it in Florida with a bunch of cobras, I think, you know, before two or like wild boars, like all like, so it's, for me, it's a political thing about like, cool, we're going to decide how much people are going to get paid or like all these other things.

1183
01:06:59.121 --> 01:07:00.602
That's where most metrics come in.

1184
01:07:00.902 --> 01:07:03.765
And then like you introduce perverse incentives.

1185
01:07:04.266 --> 01:07:07.871
for people to do because they optimize to win the game, right?

1186
01:07:07.951 --> 01:07:09.533
And get the most money, which makes sense.

1187
01:07:09.733 --> 01:07:12.056
That's what, it makes sense that that's what they're going to do.

1188
01:07:12.336 --> 01:07:14.899
But I don't think that that's what this is talking about.

1189
01:07:15.961 --> 01:07:22.088
I think it has to do with, it's about optimizing around something that undermines what it's attempting to represent.

1190
01:07:22.899 --> 01:07:27.920
And so I still think there's something about my original argument because I think about this with Netflix all the time.

1191
01:07:28.440 --> 01:07:31.561
When Netflix started doing original content, there was House of Cards.

1192
01:07:31.761 --> 01:07:34.102
There was technically one before that, but we're going to ignore that.

1193
01:07:34.982 --> 01:07:38.223
It was like an amazing piece of content when it started.

1194
01:07:38.643 --> 01:07:42.124
And a lot of people were coming to Netflix because we had like the best original content.

1195
01:07:43.044 --> 01:07:44.786
Orange is the New Black came out after that.

1196
01:07:44.826 --> 01:07:46.647
Whether you liked it or not, I did not like it.

1197
01:07:46.727 --> 01:07:47.888
It was insanely popular.

1198
01:07:47.928 --> 01:07:48.849
People really, really liked it.

1199
01:07:48.869 --> 01:07:50.190
You could say the same thing about HBO.

1200
01:07:50.510 --> 01:07:53.512
They optimized for this kind of capturing of targets.

1201
01:07:53.933 --> 01:07:58.797
But then the thing that became the most important, I mean, this is my grand theory of what happened, is that...

1202
01:07:59.457 --> 01:08:02.860
The thing that became the most important was like median watch hours of users.

1203
01:08:03.321 --> 01:08:07.585
And so the more we can increase those watch hours, the more people are going to stick around and be happy.

1204
01:08:08.085 --> 01:08:13.530
And so we produced more and more content that was that the bar became lower and lower on the quality.

1205
01:08:14.051 --> 01:08:18.915
So we actually optimized for the thing that was indicating it was a winning resource.

1206
01:08:19.676 --> 01:08:29.088
But we started optimizing around a process that actually undermines the like, perhaps what the core value or the core philosophy is of the product.

1207
01:08:29.588 --> 01:08:31.330
And so that was what I was trying to say with the YouTube one.

1208
01:08:31.350 --> 01:08:37.137
I didn't want to say Netflix, I tried not to drag them, especially with their stock price being down and trash probably having an emotional crisis right now.

1209
01:08:37.538 --> 01:08:37.718
But

1210
01:08:38.599 --> 01:08:40.340
You're cutting into his Pokemon collection right now.

1211
01:08:40.360 --> 01:08:42.240
I really get, especially after yesterday's report.

1212
01:08:42.260 --> 01:08:43.180
I don't like it.

1213
01:08:43.480 --> 01:08:51.283
But that's like what I've been thinking about a whole bunch, which is, okay, they had a metric that they optimized around, but they chose a route that really optimized it.

1214
01:08:51.643 --> 01:08:56.144
But now it kind of feels like that optimization actually may or may not be coming back to bite them.

1215
01:08:56.164 --> 01:09:01.186
Because if I were to pick a service today, I'd pick Apple TV because I know every time I turn on an Apple TV, it's a banger.

1216
01:09:01.206 --> 01:09:01.626
Oh, wow.

1217
01:09:02.400 --> 01:09:02.600
I know.

1218
01:09:02.620 --> 01:09:03.701
Don't say that in front of trash.

1219
01:09:03.801 --> 01:09:04.721
I'm a shareholder.

1220
01:09:04.821 --> 01:09:05.581
I'm going to hang up this call.

1221
01:09:05.621 --> 01:09:06.422
And I'm thinking all those things.

1222
01:09:06.522 --> 01:09:08.123
All right, great.

1223
01:09:08.143 --> 01:09:11.084
You just cost us one podcast host.

1224
01:09:11.104 --> 01:09:11.684
Thanks, Prime.

1225
01:09:11.824 --> 01:09:12.565
That was great.

1226
01:09:12.945 --> 01:09:13.585
You're welcome.

1227
01:09:13.605 --> 01:09:16.446
Who's going to tell me what my Pokemon cards are worth now, Prime?

1228
01:09:16.807 --> 01:09:17.607
Are you going to do it?

1229
01:09:17.947 --> 01:09:18.927
Not Prime.

1230
01:09:18.947 --> 01:09:19.808
TJ could very well do that.

1231
01:09:19.848 --> 01:09:20.688
He's a big Pokemon fan.

1232
01:09:20.708 --> 01:09:28.252
But anyways, that's what I always thought, which was you optimize and you incentivize by accident bad behavior.

1233
01:09:29.380 --> 01:09:41.531
That does increase the target, but not through means in which you get the wrong thing or you do actions in which actually undermines the thing in which it represents.

1234
01:09:42.131 --> 01:09:44.454
Well, I mean, I think we have enough of this law's...

1235
01:09:45.771 --> 01:09:48.494
I mean, it's definitely at least B, right?

1236
01:09:48.774 --> 01:09:50.876
I mean, maybe A then?

1237
01:09:50.896 --> 01:09:53.779
This is an A tier law for me, at least.

1238
01:09:53.799 --> 01:09:56.241
My new law is we stop talking about this law.

1239
01:09:57.102 --> 01:09:58.383
All right, Troy.

1240
01:09:58.443 --> 01:09:59.184
I got to ask.

1241
01:09:59.985 --> 01:10:01.186
I do have to go soon, guys.

1242
01:10:01.226 --> 01:10:01.947
The beach is calling.

1243
01:10:01.967 --> 01:10:02.948
Okay, let's speed this up.

1244
01:10:03.008 --> 01:10:05.110
Okay, so I love this law.

1245
01:10:05.390 --> 01:10:12.797
Which is very fantastic, which is that with a sufficient number of users of an API, it does not matter what you promise in the contract.

1246
01:10:12.937 --> 01:10:16.039
All observable behaviors of your system will be depended on by somebody.

1247
01:10:16.520 --> 01:10:26.649
If you've ever worked on any piece of software that's open source that has this quirky behavior that wasn't meant to be like, let's just say for Go, for a long time, their for loop would actually...

1248
01:10:28.230 --> 01:10:39.493
would not copy out the value, but it was a reference and it caused all these weird things where if you saved off the reference, or if you saved the value, actually saved the reference, even though you wanted to actually copy the value caused all these kinds of problems.

1249
01:10:39.933 --> 01:10:45.255
And so, but then when they changed it, they finally, they, they actually did not want to change it because they would ruin code for like

1250
01:10:45.855 --> 01:10:50.138
20 versions, I think it was like 121 that they finally said, okay, we're going to change it, we're finally going to do this.

1251
01:10:50.538 --> 01:10:55.080
And so people rely on behaviors, whether you state it or not, and or the intention of it.

1252
01:10:55.461 --> 01:11:01.884
And then there's even deeper ones where if you like call a set of functions or something, like something internal will happen that you did not document.

1253
01:11:02.365 --> 01:11:04.086
And then people are able to pull that back out.

1254
01:11:04.106 --> 01:11:09.409
And so then they start doing things in weird orders that cause just dependencies you never thought possible.

1255
01:11:09.429 --> 01:11:09.709
Yeah.

1256
01:11:10.124 --> 01:11:11.225
This is S tier for me.

1257
01:11:11.265 --> 01:11:14.507
I mean, I've spent a lot of my career doing API stuff.

1258
01:11:14.987 --> 01:11:15.948
It's S tier for me.

1259
01:11:16.028 --> 01:11:16.969
Yep.

1260
01:11:17.069 --> 01:11:19.110
It's absolutely true.

1261
01:11:19.891 --> 01:11:21.472
Hofstadter's law.

1262
01:11:21.672 --> 01:11:26.075
It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's law.

1263
01:11:28.625 --> 01:11:40.188
This one I feel like is, I don't know, C tier or something, because the problem is, and the biggest actual problem, I think, is that you never know when it's going to be true.

1264
01:11:40.328 --> 01:11:42.128
Sometimes I'm like, well, that's going to take me a while.

1265
01:11:42.148 --> 01:11:44.689
And I sit down and it's done in like 30 minutes, right?

1266
01:11:45.249 --> 01:11:47.089
Other times I'm like, oh, yeah, no problem.

1267
01:11:47.149 --> 01:11:48.190
It's like a month later.

1268
01:11:48.210 --> 01:11:51.030
It's like, yeah, it's still not working.

1269
01:11:51.090 --> 01:11:51.270
Right.

1270
01:11:51.630 --> 01:11:54.111
So I feel like the problem is more the uncertainty.

1271
01:11:54.291 --> 01:11:56.171
I don't find Hofstadter's ought to be true at all.

1272
01:11:56.392 --> 01:11:58.172
I find it's more just unpredictable.

1273
01:11:58.812 --> 01:12:00.454
It's just you have no idea how long it will take.

1274
01:12:00.994 --> 01:12:01.534
There you go.

1275
01:12:02.235 --> 01:12:02.455
Right?

1276
01:12:02.615 --> 01:12:13.124
I will say, once again, in an organization, I've never had it be that someone finishes their project early and hands it to me.

1277
01:12:13.364 --> 01:12:14.865
I've seen that a lot, to be honest.

1278
01:12:15.405 --> 01:12:15.926
Oh, right.

1279
01:12:15.946 --> 01:12:16.446
Well, actually, no.

1280
01:12:16.466 --> 01:12:16.806
Never mind.

1281
01:12:16.927 --> 01:12:18.648
They finish, but behind the scenes, they're...

1282
01:12:19.865 --> 01:12:21.345
They're acting like they're still working.

1283
01:12:21.906 --> 01:12:22.486
Oh, nice.

1284
01:12:22.526 --> 01:12:23.126
That's what I'm saying.

1285
01:12:23.166 --> 01:12:24.146
Nice, dude.

1286
01:12:24.206 --> 01:12:25.227
Don't get a little good.

1287
01:12:25.267 --> 01:12:26.527
That's what I'm saying.

1288
01:12:26.547 --> 01:12:27.887
That's what I'm saying.

1289
01:12:27.987 --> 01:12:30.388
It's done, but I'm not going to get it early.

1290
01:12:31.448 --> 01:12:31.888
Awesome.

1291
01:12:32.909 --> 01:12:41.631
I personally find maybe a different version of this, which is that it almost seems like for a lot of things, it doesn't matter when you pick the deadline.

1292
01:12:41.871 --> 01:12:44.052
But by picking a deadline, things tend to get done.

1293
01:12:44.960 --> 01:13:06.273
near that deadline that's prime's law yeah no that's not my law things it's like things expand to fill the space they're given right yeah yeah that part's for sure true yeah gas all right um okay so i'm just gonna put that as unreliable as a law uh linus's law we're just gonna say that uh i thought it was just off the board we need more people to look at it before we can know okay

1294
01:13:07.013 --> 01:13:08.534
Casey does not want this on the board.

1295
01:13:08.554 --> 01:13:09.535
So I'll just put that right there.

1296
01:13:09.635 --> 01:13:09.995
All right.

1297
01:13:10.175 --> 01:13:10.755
All right.

1298
01:13:11.236 --> 01:13:12.196
Yay.

1299
01:13:12.256 --> 01:13:13.497
Great job, everyone.

1300
01:13:13.897 --> 01:13:14.337
There we go.

1301
01:13:14.378 --> 01:13:14.618
Okay.

1302
01:13:14.638 --> 01:13:19.280
So we did have a quick final exercise, which is to go around the table and state your own law.

1303
01:13:19.841 --> 01:13:20.521
Oh, okay.

1304
01:13:21.402 --> 01:13:21.842
I have one.

1305
01:13:21.902 --> 01:13:23.823
I'll just go first because mine's very obvious.

1306
01:13:24.744 --> 01:13:31.548
Obviously, Prime's law, there exists an infinite set of numbers in which are only divisible by one and itself.

1307
01:13:33.595 --> 01:13:35.976
So you're saying there's an infinite number of primes?

1308
01:13:36.316 --> 01:13:38.257
No, I'm just saying that primes exist.

1309
01:13:39.237 --> 01:13:39.778
I don't know.

1310
01:13:39.798 --> 01:13:42.379
That wasn't a very helpful law.

1311
01:13:42.419 --> 01:13:46.360
I thought it was going to be primes law is the name is the primogen.

1312
01:13:47.081 --> 01:13:48.541
That's what I was hoping you were going to say.

1313
01:13:49.062 --> 01:13:52.003
I actually had a really insightful one that both Began and I really liked.

1314
01:13:52.423 --> 01:13:54.424
And then now neither of us could remember it.

1315
01:13:54.484 --> 01:13:55.744
So I just went with prime numbers.

1316
01:13:56.325 --> 01:13:57.865
I'm now saying my law is prime numbers.

1317
01:13:58.526 --> 01:13:58.726
Okay.

1318
01:13:58.766 --> 01:13:59.026
Okay.

1319
01:13:59.946 --> 01:14:00.146
All right.

1320
01:14:00.226 --> 01:14:00.707
I've got one.

1321
01:14:01.487 --> 01:14:01.667
Um,

1322
01:14:03.068 --> 01:14:13.902
Whatever tweet, so this is teacher's law, whatever tweet gets the most likes from a previous model release, every model will optimize for in the next training round.

1323
01:14:18.075 --> 01:14:21.596
If you've noticed, it's only about Blender suddenly.

1324
01:14:21.636 --> 01:14:24.077
That's the only way to tell if a model's good.

1325
01:14:24.257 --> 01:14:26.838
Weirdly, those were the ones that did well last time.

1326
01:14:27.198 --> 01:14:30.019
So next time, if it's not Blender, it'll be a new thing.

1327
01:14:30.479 --> 01:14:34.400
And then when everyone does their training, they're going to say, okay, we have to do that.

1328
01:14:34.420 --> 01:14:35.301
That's what everyone's going to test.

1329
01:14:35.661 --> 01:14:39.402
Because this happened with Muse, and it happened with what was the other one, Prime?

1330
01:14:39.822 --> 01:14:45.243
This happened with not only that, but it also just the octagon and the ball.

1331
01:14:45.403 --> 01:14:47.104
Like that was the first version of this, which is.

1332
01:14:47.184 --> 01:14:47.644
Yeah.

1333
01:14:47.864 --> 01:14:49.244
Could have one shot these octagons.

1334
01:14:49.264 --> 01:14:49.784
Yeah.

1335
01:14:49.844 --> 01:14:50.064
Mark.

1336
01:14:50.704 --> 01:14:50.864
Yep.

1337
01:14:50.884 --> 01:14:51.645
Yes.

1338
01:14:51.685 --> 01:14:52.325
You're completely right.

1339
01:14:52.345 --> 01:14:52.845
I'm on that is.

1340
01:14:52.905 --> 01:14:54.125
So whatever one.

1341
01:14:54.185 --> 01:14:54.885
Whatever one.

1342
01:14:54.985 --> 01:15:01.947
And literally you saw the labs go and apologize that they didn't train on 3D modeling.

1343
01:15:02.547 --> 01:15:05.372
They came out and apologized and said, our bad, we didn't train on that.

1344
01:15:05.832 --> 01:15:10.400
So you think anyone's going to – they're going to train on whatever one it is for the next round?

1345
01:15:11.565 --> 01:15:29.915
That actually is also an operable law because it means that now if you need AIs to get better at something, you just have to do some like SEO kinds of like trying to get your meme out there as look at how bad the models did on this or something.

1346
01:15:29.955 --> 01:15:30.195
Right.

1347
01:15:30.255 --> 01:15:32.497
And then it's like now they'll all go fix it.

1348
01:15:33.442 --> 01:15:40.786
So an example of one that's going to happen next will be they'll all be good at one shotting music videos of like text and things.

1349
01:15:41.227 --> 01:15:43.108
Everyone's been like, oh, my goodness.

1350
01:15:43.128 --> 01:15:46.410
Opus did this music video edit.

1351
01:15:46.970 --> 01:15:50.192
So you'll expect all of them to do that next round.

1352
01:15:51.973 --> 01:15:52.513
There you go.

1353
01:15:52.533 --> 01:15:54.254
I'll even give you a test for my law.

1354
01:15:54.434 --> 01:15:54.814
There you go.

1355
01:15:55.055 --> 01:15:55.615
That's really good.

1356
01:15:56.119 --> 01:15:56.719
I'll go real quick.

1357
01:15:56.739 --> 01:15:58.120
Mine's pretty simple.

1358
01:15:58.300 --> 01:16:05.323
Mine is the effectively engagement inversion law where the least amount of effort you put into a post, the better it does.

1359
01:16:05.863 --> 01:16:07.064
The classic shit post.

1360
01:16:07.084 --> 01:16:07.884
That's a great law.

1361
01:16:08.164 --> 01:16:09.165
That's a good law.

1362
01:16:09.425 --> 01:16:10.946
That seems pretty true, actually.

1363
01:16:10.966 --> 01:16:13.467
I kind of agree with that law.

1364
01:16:15.327 --> 01:16:16.088
Casey, you got one?

1365
01:16:17.452 --> 01:16:36.380
I don't really I mean, the only law that I think I have is the is my corollary to Conway's law, which is that this also applies across time as well, which I covered in in that sort of presentation on Conway's law, which is to say that it's not just the structure of like the org chart at that time.

1366
01:16:36.820 --> 01:16:40.602
It's the structure of all org charts throughout the history of the product.

1367
01:16:41.505 --> 01:16:45.428
Because all the code kind of remains and carries forward.

1368
01:16:45.708 --> 01:16:45.908
Right?

1369
01:16:45.968 --> 01:16:50.891
So you end up with this, like, it's basically four-dimensional Conway's law.

1370
01:16:51.872 --> 01:16:53.813
That's the only thing I think I've ever stated like that.

1371
01:16:56.935 --> 01:16:57.356
All right.

1372
01:16:57.556 --> 01:16:58.296
Okay, there we go.

1373
01:16:59.357 --> 01:17:00.378
Okay, I'm going to the beach.

1374
01:17:00.918 --> 01:17:02.519
All right.

1375
01:17:04.180 --> 01:17:07.883
Dude, I thought his background was fake when he first joined the call, and then he ran into the background.

1376
01:17:07.903 --> 01:17:09.604
I was like, okay, that was nice.

1377
01:17:11.651 --> 01:17:12.992
Can you hear us still?

1378
01:17:13.392 --> 01:17:14.072
I can still hear you.

1379
01:17:14.092 --> 01:17:15.232
Of course I can hear you, Trash.

1380
01:17:15.252 --> 01:17:15.933
What are you talking about?

1381
01:17:15.953 --> 01:17:16.673
Of course I can hear you.

1382
01:17:17.033 --> 01:17:17.793
Can you still hear me?

1383
01:17:18.434 --> 01:17:18.694
Yes.

1384
01:17:18.934 --> 01:17:19.554
Yes, we can.

1385
01:17:19.654 --> 01:17:19.994
Actually.

1386
01:17:20.054 --> 01:17:20.835
All right.

1387
01:17:21.155 --> 01:17:24.256
Thank you, everybody, for watching this week's episode of The Stand Up.

1388
01:17:24.616 --> 01:17:24.856
Hey.

1389
01:17:24.896 --> 01:17:25.336
See ya.

1390
01:17:25.917 --> 01:17:26.957
What's your favorite law?

1391
01:17:27.017 --> 01:17:28.478
Booth up today.

1392
01:17:30.238 --> 01:17:30.979
Vibe coping.

1393
01:17:31.659 --> 01:17:33.279
Errors on my screen.

1394
01:17:34.700 --> 01:17:36.761
Terminal coffee.