WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.000 What's going on, everyone? 2 00:00:02.000 --> 00:00:04.400 I actually do have something that I think will 3 00:00:04.400 --> 00:00:06.720 one, make you a lot more money 4 00:00:06.720 --> 00:00:10.880 and two, make your life a lot better as an entrepreneur. 5 00:00:10.880 --> 00:00:13.200 Leyla and I were in this very deep discussion the other day 6 00:00:13.200 --> 00:00:15.280 of all the stuff that was on my plate. 7 00:00:15.280 --> 00:00:17.120 And so she and I do this on a regular basis 8 00:00:17.120 --> 00:00:20.160 because I tend to get overwhelmed with the amount of work 9 00:00:20.160 --> 00:00:22.160 that's put in front of us and she does too. 10 00:00:22.160 --> 00:00:23.760 And so this is a habit that we've done. 11 00:00:23.760 --> 00:00:26.240 And so if you have an operator or somebody 12 00:00:26.240 --> 00:00:27.440 who's number two in your business, 13 00:00:27.440 --> 00:00:29.680 I would encourage you to do this on a regular basis. 14 00:00:29.680 --> 00:00:31.360 And we don't do it often enough. 15 00:00:31.360 --> 00:00:33.200 But we tend to basically do it when one of us 16 00:00:33.200 --> 00:00:34.480 gets stressed out of a mind and is like, 17 00:00:34.480 --> 00:00:35.920 I can't handle all this. 18 00:00:35.920 --> 00:00:37.360 One of the things that she brought up 19 00:00:37.360 --> 00:00:38.720 was such a powerful frame. 20 00:00:38.720 --> 00:00:40.640 And I feel almost embarrassed 21 00:00:40.640 --> 00:00:42.720 that I've never made this delineation until now. 22 00:00:42.720 --> 00:00:45.680 And I want to just hopefully give you 13 years back 23 00:00:45.680 --> 00:00:50.320 of stress that I'm looking forward to not having as much of. 24 00:00:50.320 --> 00:00:53.520 Which is, we need to understand the difference between problems 25 00:00:53.520 --> 00:00:55.280 and missed opportunities. 26 00:00:55.280 --> 00:00:56.880 And so what does that mean? 27 00:00:57.760 --> 00:01:00.240 So a problem is something that threatens 28 00:01:00.240 --> 00:01:02.160 the future livelihood of your business. 29 00:01:02.160 --> 00:01:03.520 So it decreases the likely 30 00:01:03.520 --> 00:01:05.440 that your business will continue to exist. 31 00:01:05.440 --> 00:01:07.440 So for example, if you get customer complaints 32 00:01:07.440 --> 00:01:09.520 from your product, that is a problem. 33 00:01:09.520 --> 00:01:12.400 If your processor, you know, relationship 34 00:01:12.400 --> 00:01:15.520 becomes a red flag, that is a problem. 35 00:01:15.520 --> 00:01:18.960 If your sales team starts dropping conversions, 36 00:01:18.960 --> 00:01:20.080 that is a problem. 37 00:01:20.080 --> 00:01:22.320 These are things that threaten whether or not 38 00:01:22.320 --> 00:01:24.240 you're going to be alive tomorrow. 39 00:01:24.240 --> 00:01:26.800 The second bucket are missed opportunities. 40 00:01:26.800 --> 00:01:28.320 These are things that you are not doing, 41 00:01:28.320 --> 00:01:30.080 but you should be doing in your business 42 00:01:30.080 --> 00:01:32.800 that could expand or grow your business. 43 00:01:32.800 --> 00:01:34.000 Here's the fundamental problem. 44 00:01:34.800 --> 00:01:38.320 In my life, I have almost equally colored them the same 45 00:01:38.320 --> 00:01:40.320 as just things to do. 46 00:01:40.320 --> 00:01:41.600 I need to fix the sales team. 47 00:01:41.600 --> 00:01:45.040 I also need to get this email follow-up campaign 48 00:01:45.040 --> 00:01:47.200 redone because it sucks, right? 49 00:01:47.200 --> 00:01:48.880 Or it's not there to begin with. 50 00:01:48.880 --> 00:01:51.040 We need to get this retargeting across all platforms. 51 00:01:51.040 --> 00:01:52.160 Why aren't we doing that? 52 00:01:52.160 --> 00:01:53.520 And you probably have this list 53 00:01:53.600 --> 00:01:55.840 of what I consider should do, right? 54 00:01:55.840 --> 00:01:58.560 I know I should be doing all these things, but I'm not. 55 00:01:58.560 --> 00:02:00.720 And so this is where this gets really painful 56 00:02:00.720 --> 00:02:02.640 for the entrepreneur myself included, 57 00:02:02.640 --> 00:02:06.160 which is we only have limited resources, 58 00:02:06.160 --> 00:02:09.920 but our list of should do is unlimited. 59 00:02:09.920 --> 00:02:12.880 The amount of opportunities taken to their natural extreme 60 00:02:12.880 --> 00:02:15.840 is that you have a business that sells everything to everyone. 61 00:02:15.840 --> 00:02:16.720 Think about it. 62 00:02:16.720 --> 00:02:19.520 At every point, there's, oh, we could have a product here. 63 00:02:19.520 --> 00:02:21.440 That's an opportunity for revenue expansion. 64 00:02:21.520 --> 00:02:23.440 Oh, we should add in this other channel. 65 00:02:23.440 --> 00:02:26.720 That's a possibility or opportunity for revenue expansion. 66 00:02:26.720 --> 00:02:28.960 And so what ends up happening is that over time, 67 00:02:28.960 --> 00:02:32.320 everything feels like something that you should do. 68 00:02:32.320 --> 00:02:37.520 And then over time, your list just gets longer and longer and longer. 69 00:02:37.520 --> 00:02:40.880 And unless you delineate, which thing is a problem 70 00:02:40.880 --> 00:02:43.200 and which thing is a missed opportunity, 71 00:02:43.200 --> 00:02:45.280 you will get way overwhelmed. 72 00:02:45.280 --> 00:02:47.760 This is why I think this is so crucial. 73 00:02:47.840 --> 00:02:51.680 Mist opportunities are typically more fun. 74 00:02:51.680 --> 00:02:54.800 They're exciting, they're new things, they're shiny. 75 00:02:54.800 --> 00:02:57.760 And that's why us entrepreneurs love pursuing them. 76 00:02:57.760 --> 00:02:59.760 The reason that I talk about focus 77 00:02:59.760 --> 00:03:02.160 and the woman in the red dress so often 78 00:03:02.160 --> 00:03:04.960 is it's because it's the thing that I struggle with 79 00:03:04.960 --> 00:03:07.040 to this day most often. 80 00:03:07.040 --> 00:03:09.320 And so half of these sermons probably more than half 81 00:03:09.320 --> 00:03:12.560 are actually just me yelling at me to be clear. 82 00:03:12.560 --> 00:03:14.960 Now, these are really fun and exciting. 83 00:03:14.960 --> 00:03:16.960 And they tend to be around the things that you love. 84 00:03:16.960 --> 00:03:18.400 And so if you're a product person, 85 00:03:18.400 --> 00:03:20.920 you're probably going to have a lot of product should do's. 86 00:03:20.920 --> 00:03:22.080 If you're a marketer, you're probably 87 00:03:22.080 --> 00:03:24.760 have a lot of marketing related should do's. 88 00:03:24.760 --> 00:03:27.360 If your customer success related, same thing. 89 00:03:27.360 --> 00:03:29.160 So if you're finance, same thing. 90 00:03:29.160 --> 00:03:30.840 Whatever your thing is, 91 00:03:30.840 --> 00:03:32.840 tends to be the thing that you like doing the most of. 92 00:03:32.840 --> 00:03:35.840 And that's where you tend to see the most missed opportunities 93 00:03:35.840 --> 00:03:37.520 because that's where you spend the most time. 94 00:03:37.520 --> 00:03:39.440 You can always see the next step, the next step, 95 00:03:39.440 --> 00:03:41.920 the next step and you keep wanting to grab those other things 96 00:03:41.920 --> 00:03:42.760 and bring them to your business 97 00:03:42.760 --> 00:03:43.720 because you see how much money 98 00:03:43.720 --> 00:03:45.480 that we're quote leaving on the table. 99 00:03:45.480 --> 00:03:48.400 Problems on the other hand, suck. 100 00:03:48.400 --> 00:03:49.480 And they're not fun. 101 00:03:49.480 --> 00:03:51.160 And it's usually you going into something 102 00:03:51.160 --> 00:03:53.200 that you set up once and having to fix. 103 00:03:53.200 --> 00:03:54.440 You thought it was going to work, 104 00:03:54.440 --> 00:03:56.400 but it's not being executed properly 105 00:03:56.400 --> 00:03:59.000 or there's some key problem that you didn't expect. 106 00:03:59.000 --> 00:04:00.640 It's basically you did something, 107 00:04:00.640 --> 00:04:02.560 a new piece of information came to light. 108 00:04:02.560 --> 00:04:04.720 And now you have to do something about it. 109 00:04:04.720 --> 00:04:08.040 The reason beyond what I just said of why 110 00:04:08.040 --> 00:04:09.840 you shouldn't focus on the missed opportunities 111 00:04:09.840 --> 00:04:11.240 because there's obviously so many of them. 112 00:04:11.240 --> 00:04:12.320 And it taken to the natural extreme, 113 00:04:12.320 --> 00:04:13.920 it's literally everything. 114 00:04:13.920 --> 00:04:18.440 It's also because when you prioritize missed opportunities, 115 00:04:18.440 --> 00:04:20.240 you grow your business. 116 00:04:20.240 --> 00:04:21.640 But guess what else happens? 117 00:04:21.640 --> 00:04:23.480 You grow your problems. 118 00:04:23.480 --> 00:04:25.520 And so if you have not solved your problem 119 00:04:25.520 --> 00:04:27.000 before growing the business, 120 00:04:27.000 --> 00:04:29.760 that problem just gets bigger. 121 00:04:29.760 --> 00:04:31.240 And I will tell you something that I have 122 00:04:31.240 --> 00:04:32.920 and I'll say to me far too long to learn 123 00:04:32.920 --> 00:04:35.960 is that it's easier to solve small problems 124 00:04:35.960 --> 00:04:37.560 than big problems. 125 00:04:37.560 --> 00:04:39.880 When we were thinking about putting the sequence 126 00:04:39.880 --> 00:04:42.520 of what things we're going to prioritize, 127 00:04:42.520 --> 00:04:46.200 by the way, the TLDR of this is this is strategy. 128 00:04:46.200 --> 00:04:48.800 Strategy is prioritizing limited resources 129 00:04:48.800 --> 00:04:50.560 against unlimited opportunities. 130 00:04:50.560 --> 00:04:53.320 These are things that you could do with these resources 131 00:04:53.320 --> 00:04:55.200 versus the resources you have. 132 00:04:55.200 --> 00:04:57.480 And so if you have a fixed pool of resources, 133 00:04:57.480 --> 00:04:58.880 the first things, and this is like, 134 00:04:58.880 --> 00:05:01.720 I'm re-looking at my list right now, 135 00:05:01.720 --> 00:05:04.160 are the things that probably suck. 136 00:05:04.160 --> 00:05:05.400 They are the problems. 137 00:05:05.400 --> 00:05:08.160 And that is where you can spend or should spend 138 00:05:08.160 --> 00:05:09.720 in my opinion your time. 139 00:05:09.720 --> 00:05:11.120 Because when you solve your problems, 140 00:05:11.120 --> 00:05:13.360 guess what else also happens? 141 00:05:13.360 --> 00:05:14.440 You grow. 142 00:05:14.440 --> 00:05:16.960 Opportunities can grow your company. 143 00:05:16.960 --> 00:05:19.800 Problems solved also grow your company. 144 00:05:19.800 --> 00:05:22.440 But when you solve problems as you grow, 145 00:05:22.440 --> 00:05:25.840 you get growth through getting better. 146 00:05:25.840 --> 00:05:30.200 When you grow through capturing missed opportunities, 147 00:05:30.200 --> 00:05:31.480 you grow through doing more. 148 00:05:31.480 --> 00:05:33.000 And to be fair, I have no problem 149 00:05:33.000 --> 00:05:34.560 with growing through doing more, 150 00:05:34.560 --> 00:05:35.680 but I do have a problem 151 00:05:35.680 --> 00:05:38.920 when more also creates more problems. 152 00:05:38.920 --> 00:05:40.800 If the goal of the entrepreneur 153 00:05:40.800 --> 00:05:44.320 is to allocate resources across the entire company 154 00:05:44.320 --> 00:05:46.600 to achieve the best returns, 155 00:05:46.600 --> 00:05:49.160 then we should be allocating more of our time 156 00:05:49.160 --> 00:05:51.040 towards solving problems 157 00:05:51.040 --> 00:05:52.760 that are coming up on daily basis. 158 00:05:52.760 --> 00:05:56.200 When you have a business that no longer has problems, 159 00:05:56.200 --> 00:05:58.320 you will grow by default. 160 00:05:58.320 --> 00:06:01.520 And so my allocation of resources 161 00:06:01.520 --> 00:06:02.960 has gone in this direction. 162 00:06:02.960 --> 00:06:06.640 Now, I want to zoom out and make this super tactical for you. 163 00:06:06.640 --> 00:06:08.920 You probably look at data, hopefully, 164 00:06:08.920 --> 00:06:12.320 if you follow my stuff to any degree, on a regular basis. 165 00:06:12.320 --> 00:06:13.680 Now, if you're earlier on, 166 00:06:13.680 --> 00:06:16.040 you have to go gather that data from tons of places. 167 00:06:16.040 --> 00:06:17.000 As you get more advanced, 168 00:06:17.000 --> 00:06:19.120 that data becomes pushed you via dashboards 169 00:06:19.120 --> 00:06:19.960 or direct reports. 170 00:06:19.960 --> 00:06:21.480 People present those things on meetings. 171 00:06:21.480 --> 00:06:22.480 It's the first slide. 172 00:06:22.480 --> 00:06:24.000 And then you talk about the data. 173 00:06:24.000 --> 00:06:26.200 So I want to give you a 201 level hack here 174 00:06:26.200 --> 00:06:28.760 that will change how you run your business. 175 00:06:28.760 --> 00:06:33.400 Number one, the data that you choose to display 176 00:06:33.400 --> 00:06:35.560 must be there for a reason. 177 00:06:35.560 --> 00:06:37.160 One of the biggest problems that I see 178 00:06:37.160 --> 00:06:38.360 across our portfolio companies 179 00:06:38.360 --> 00:06:40.200 and even within our holding company 180 00:06:40.200 --> 00:06:44.120 is that my direct reports and my employees 181 00:06:44.120 --> 00:06:46.600 often overreport because they know I love data. 182 00:06:46.600 --> 00:06:49.200 And so they're like, look at all of this data that we have. 183 00:06:49.200 --> 00:06:52.200 But if you present me a piece of data 184 00:06:52.200 --> 00:06:54.120 and a change in that data 185 00:06:54.120 --> 00:06:56.840 does not result in a change in behavior, 186 00:06:56.840 --> 00:06:58.960 it is a waste of time. 187 00:06:58.960 --> 00:07:00.920 And so right now, if you look at the data 188 00:07:00.920 --> 00:07:03.840 and you're like, okay, we're trending in this direction, 189 00:07:03.880 --> 00:07:06.000 if you ask the hypothetical question, 190 00:07:06.000 --> 00:07:08.480 if we max this out, would it change what we're doing? 191 00:07:08.480 --> 00:07:10.040 If the answer is no, 192 00:07:10.040 --> 00:07:11.760 then you should stop looking at that piece of data. 193 00:07:11.760 --> 00:07:14.440 It's noise, not signal. 194 00:07:14.440 --> 00:07:17.080 When you're making the decisions for your business, 195 00:07:17.080 --> 00:07:18.440 the data that you look at, 196 00:07:18.440 --> 00:07:21.320 you should clearly know and your team should know 197 00:07:21.320 --> 00:07:25.040 what behavior this data influences. 198 00:07:25.040 --> 00:07:27.560 If our average view duration drops, 199 00:07:27.560 --> 00:07:29.200 then it could be from a number of reasons. 200 00:07:29.200 --> 00:07:30.720 But if it does drop, 201 00:07:30.720 --> 00:07:32.120 are we going to do something about it 202 00:07:32.120 --> 00:07:34.440 and what are we going to do? 203 00:07:34.440 --> 00:07:38.200 This also will target your discussions 204 00:07:38.200 --> 00:07:40.400 or orient your discussions with your team. 205 00:07:40.400 --> 00:07:41.720 And so if they come to you and say, 206 00:07:41.720 --> 00:07:45.080 hey, we want to run a meeting about this, 207 00:07:45.080 --> 00:07:47.040 the end result of every meeting 208 00:07:47.040 --> 00:07:49.320 should be a change in behavior. 209 00:07:49.320 --> 00:07:51.560 It should be what are we going to do? 210 00:07:51.560 --> 00:07:52.960 Now, if someone says, hey, 211 00:07:52.960 --> 00:07:55.680 I want to report these trends that we're seeing, 212 00:07:55.680 --> 00:07:58.560 cool, and I'll give you a really recent one that happened. 213 00:07:58.560 --> 00:08:01.880 I had a vendor for a platform a while ago 214 00:08:01.880 --> 00:08:03.880 and the vendor was telling me, 215 00:08:03.880 --> 00:08:07.600 hey, we should go for shorter versions 216 00:08:07.600 --> 00:08:08.560 of this type of content. 217 00:08:08.560 --> 00:08:11.600 And I was like, okay, why? 218 00:08:11.600 --> 00:08:13.400 And he said, well, because when we shorten it, 219 00:08:13.400 --> 00:08:17.600 a higher percentage of people watch it or consume it. 220 00:08:17.600 --> 00:08:20.240 And I said, why do I care? 221 00:08:20.240 --> 00:08:24.000 What does the view duration or less duration 222 00:08:24.000 --> 00:08:26.160 have to do with any of the metrics 223 00:08:26.160 --> 00:08:27.760 that we have in this business? 224 00:08:27.760 --> 00:08:32.080 Can you prove to me that us getting a higher percentage 225 00:08:32.080 --> 00:08:34.080 of people viewing a shorter piece of content 226 00:08:34.080 --> 00:08:35.680 in some way drives our business? 227 00:08:35.680 --> 00:08:38.000 Now, if he then said, yes, 228 00:08:38.000 --> 00:08:40.880 pieces of content that have higher average view durations 229 00:08:40.880 --> 00:08:42.320 or average listened durations, 230 00:08:42.320 --> 00:08:44.720 then create more shares, then I would say, 231 00:08:44.720 --> 00:08:46.440 got it, done, we're doing it. 232 00:08:46.440 --> 00:08:49.240 But if you just report, oh, we should do this 233 00:08:49.240 --> 00:08:51.000 because it improves this metric, 234 00:08:51.000 --> 00:08:54.040 how does that metric tie to getting us more customers 235 00:08:54.040 --> 00:08:56.000 or making customers worth more? 236 00:08:56.000 --> 00:08:59.960 If you can't tie why this thing or this metric 237 00:08:59.960 --> 00:09:04.960 that we somehow track, tracks to this, I do not care. 238 00:09:04.960 --> 00:09:06.480 And the reason I think this is so important 239 00:09:06.480 --> 00:09:09.560 is that we have such limited attention in business 240 00:09:09.560 --> 00:09:12.200 every single day that if someone's going to buy 241 00:09:12.200 --> 00:09:15.080 or bid for our attention, they better damn well 242 00:09:15.080 --> 00:09:16.600 have a good reason for it. 243 00:09:16.600 --> 00:09:19.400 And also, your team is limited as well. 244 00:09:19.400 --> 00:09:21.160 They are human beings too. 245 00:09:21.160 --> 00:09:22.720 And so they have many people, 246 00:09:22.720 --> 00:09:24.440 they've got Slack messages, they've got emails, 247 00:09:24.440 --> 00:09:25.280 they've got meetings, 248 00:09:25.280 --> 00:09:28.200 and then they have the work that they're actually supposed to do. 249 00:09:28.200 --> 00:09:31.280 And so if you have a quarterly, for example, 250 00:09:31.280 --> 00:09:33.640 and you have your whole team there, 251 00:09:33.640 --> 00:09:37.840 if you aren't clear about what change in behavior, 252 00:09:37.840 --> 00:09:39.880 the data is going to create, 253 00:09:39.880 --> 00:09:42.720 you are wasting your time and theirs. 254 00:09:42.720 --> 00:09:46.000 If after that day or after that meeting, 255 00:09:46.000 --> 00:09:48.880 you go back to business, you might as well 256 00:09:48.880 --> 00:09:51.440 have just taken the day off, 257 00:09:51.440 --> 00:09:54.640 wrapping this back to problems and missed opportunities. 258 00:09:54.640 --> 00:09:56.960 You will probably have significantly more data 259 00:09:56.960 --> 00:09:58.280 around your problems than you will 260 00:09:58.280 --> 00:09:59.720 around missed opportunities. 261 00:09:59.720 --> 00:10:02.080 Missed opportunities are going to be purely hypothetical. 262 00:10:02.080 --> 00:10:03.520 We think if we had this percentage 263 00:10:03.520 --> 00:10:05.560 to be able to convert and they pay this price, 264 00:10:05.560 --> 00:10:07.000 this is the revenue uplift that's 265 00:10:07.000 --> 00:10:08.440 that we have potential to capture. 266 00:10:08.440 --> 00:10:11.080 All of this is hypothetical, fine. 267 00:10:11.080 --> 00:10:15.280 On the problem side, we have to look at what thing 268 00:10:15.280 --> 00:10:17.880 we're going to change to fix this problem. 269 00:10:17.880 --> 00:10:19.200 And so this is how we do it. 270 00:10:19.200 --> 00:10:21.120 We have four steps, all right? 271 00:10:21.120 --> 00:10:22.400 So if you're writing this at home, 272 00:10:22.400 --> 00:10:24.560 then this is the writer downer part. 273 00:10:24.560 --> 00:10:27.080 Number one is the condition or the goal 274 00:10:27.080 --> 00:10:30.120 that we are trying to, the problem we're trying to solve, all right? 275 00:10:30.120 --> 00:10:32.240 This is current, this is desired. 276 00:10:32.240 --> 00:10:33.040 Cool. 277 00:10:33.040 --> 00:10:35.560 Next thing is what is the action? 278 00:10:35.560 --> 00:10:37.600 What are we going to do? 279 00:10:37.600 --> 00:10:40.600 And this is to be clear a hypothesis. 280 00:10:40.600 --> 00:10:44.040 Our churn rate is at 5%, okay? 281 00:10:44.040 --> 00:10:47.840 We hypothesize that if we do a 101 reach out 282 00:10:47.840 --> 00:10:49.880 to every customer as they enter our, you know, 283 00:10:49.880 --> 00:10:52.680 buy our product, we will decrease churn. 284 00:10:52.680 --> 00:10:53.960 That's the hypothesis. 285 00:10:53.960 --> 00:10:57.080 It's an action tied with what we expect 286 00:10:57.080 --> 00:10:59.360 and the reason for taking this cost on, 287 00:10:59.360 --> 00:11:02.960 because it will cost you money to do this, cost resources. 288 00:11:02.960 --> 00:11:05.520 The third bucket, and this is the fun one. 289 00:11:05.520 --> 00:11:06.960 Did we do it or not? 290 00:11:06.960 --> 00:11:08.400 So this is the before and after. 291 00:11:08.400 --> 00:11:09.600 So we have the problem. 292 00:11:09.600 --> 00:11:11.320 Here's how we hypothesize it. 293 00:11:11.320 --> 00:11:13.520 We have what data that's going to, 294 00:11:13.520 --> 00:11:14.840 that we want to affect. 295 00:11:14.840 --> 00:11:16.360 So churn rate was the percentage. 296 00:11:16.360 --> 00:11:17.480 We wanted to go down. 297 00:11:17.480 --> 00:11:19.360 We hypothesized it's going to go down by this much. 298 00:11:19.360 --> 00:11:20.480 Cool. 299 00:11:20.480 --> 00:11:21.560 That's the before. 300 00:11:21.640 --> 00:11:24.160 The after is, did we do it or not? 301 00:11:24.160 --> 00:11:25.480 Very simple. 302 00:11:25.480 --> 00:11:27.400 Because you can have this whole hypothesis, 303 00:11:27.400 --> 00:11:29.280 get to the end of the quarter, get to the end of the week, 304 00:11:29.280 --> 00:11:30.840 and then say, oh, we didn't really do it. 305 00:11:30.840 --> 00:11:33.320 Okay, well, then we didn't test the hypothesis. 306 00:11:33.320 --> 00:11:35.400 Now, here's the fun one. 307 00:11:35.400 --> 00:11:36.440 Let's say you do it. 308 00:11:37.320 --> 00:11:40.360 Did what we expect to happen happen? 309 00:11:40.360 --> 00:11:43.200 Because we're guessing that if we do this thing, 310 00:11:43.200 --> 00:11:44.760 churn will go down. 311 00:11:44.760 --> 00:11:47.920 But we could do the thing and churn could remain the same. 312 00:11:47.920 --> 00:11:50.400 And so it cost us time and it costs us money, 313 00:11:50.400 --> 00:11:52.240 but the problem remained unsolved. 314 00:11:52.240 --> 00:11:54.320 And this is the nature of business. 315 00:11:54.320 --> 00:11:57.200 And this is why your second business grew way faster 316 00:11:57.200 --> 00:11:58.840 than your first business because you already knew 317 00:11:58.840 --> 00:12:00.560 the solutions to the problems that you were going 318 00:12:00.560 --> 00:12:01.760 to create along the way. 319 00:12:01.760 --> 00:12:04.360 And then you run smack into problems 320 00:12:04.360 --> 00:12:06.280 that you don't know how to solve. 321 00:12:06.280 --> 00:12:08.840 And this is why I want to hit on this so hard. 322 00:12:08.840 --> 00:12:11.400 You're not growing because there are problems 323 00:12:11.400 --> 00:12:13.720 that you need to solve, that you're not solving 324 00:12:13.720 --> 00:12:16.880 because they're not fun and you don't know what to do. 325 00:12:16.880 --> 00:12:19.240 So instead, you're doing more of the thing 326 00:12:19.240 --> 00:12:22.080 that you know to do around opportunities, 327 00:12:22.080 --> 00:12:24.120 but you still have not solved the problem. 328 00:12:24.120 --> 00:12:25.960 And you've done this enough times 329 00:12:25.960 --> 00:12:27.960 that you've now grown the problems to the point 330 00:12:27.960 --> 00:12:30.400 where it's stifling your business. 331 00:12:30.400 --> 00:12:32.000 And so you have to stop. 332 00:12:32.000 --> 00:12:35.400 And so you have to look at that big to-do list that you have. 333 00:12:35.400 --> 00:12:37.680 And you have to think which of these are problems 334 00:12:37.680 --> 00:12:40.040 that I need to solve that will make us better 335 00:12:40.040 --> 00:12:43.400 and as a result of being better, grow our business. 336 00:12:43.400 --> 00:12:46.320 And which of these are opportunities that are missed 337 00:12:46.360 --> 00:12:49.560 that we think that we could do but aren't doing yet. 338 00:12:49.560 --> 00:12:51.520 I would encourage you to take that entire list 339 00:12:51.520 --> 00:12:53.680 of missed opportunities, the MOs, 340 00:12:53.680 --> 00:12:55.200 and just move them somewhere else. 341 00:12:55.200 --> 00:12:57.440 And what I have is something called 342 00:12:57.440 --> 00:13:00.040 Alex's big money making idealist. 343 00:13:00.040 --> 00:13:01.600 Everybody in the company knows about this. 344 00:13:01.600 --> 00:13:05.240 I have more ideas than we have capacity to implement. 345 00:13:05.240 --> 00:13:08.960 And I have learned through many years of working with Layla 346 00:13:08.960 --> 00:13:12.480 that I actually only get maybe one out of 10 or 20 347 00:13:12.480 --> 00:13:14.480 that I actually get to do 348 00:13:14.480 --> 00:13:17.960 because you don't have unlimited shots on goal. 349 00:13:17.960 --> 00:13:18.800 That is the problem. 350 00:13:18.800 --> 00:13:20.920 So Jeff Bezos has the saying that as the beginning 351 00:13:20.920 --> 00:13:22.960 of this book, I'll actually read it to you 352 00:13:22.960 --> 00:13:25.280 because I think it's so significant. 353 00:13:25.280 --> 00:13:27.160 Outside's returns often come from betting 354 00:13:27.160 --> 00:13:29.760 against conventional wisdom and conventional wisdom 355 00:13:29.760 --> 00:13:31.000 is usually right. 356 00:13:31.000 --> 00:13:33.520 Given a 10% chance of 100 times payoff, 357 00:13:33.520 --> 00:13:35.200 you should take that bet every time. 358 00:13:35.200 --> 00:13:38.040 But you're still gonna be wrong nine times out of 10. 359 00:13:38.040 --> 00:13:39.640 We all know that if you swing for the fences 360 00:13:39.640 --> 00:13:40.920 you're gonna strike out a lot, 361 00:13:40.920 --> 00:13:42.760 but you're also gonna hit some home runs. 362 00:13:42.760 --> 00:13:44.960 The difference between baseball and business, however, 363 00:13:44.960 --> 00:13:47.720 is that baseball has a truncated outcome distribution. 364 00:13:47.720 --> 00:13:49.680 When you swing, no matter how well you connect 365 00:13:49.680 --> 00:13:52.560 with the ball, the most runs you can get is four. 366 00:13:52.560 --> 00:13:54.400 In business, every once in a while, 367 00:13:54.400 --> 00:13:56.960 when you step up to the plate, you can score a thousand runs. 368 00:13:56.960 --> 00:13:58.760 This long-tailed distribution of returns 369 00:13:58.760 --> 00:14:00.400 is why it's important to be bold. 370 00:14:00.400 --> 00:14:02.800 Big winners pay for so many experiments. 371 00:14:02.800 --> 00:14:04.760 Here's the one flaw in that business 372 00:14:04.760 --> 00:14:06.800 is much smarter than me, much richer than me. 373 00:14:06.800 --> 00:14:09.000 But there's one flaw with the analogy. 374 00:14:09.000 --> 00:14:10.760 If you go to a casino 375 00:14:10.760 --> 00:14:14.760 and you have a 100x payoff and you've got a one out of 10 bet, 376 00:14:14.760 --> 00:14:16.280 then you should make that bet every time, 377 00:14:16.280 --> 00:14:17.880 under one assumption, 378 00:14:17.880 --> 00:14:20.760 that you can bet as many times as you please. 379 00:14:20.760 --> 00:14:22.400 Let's say you go to the casino 380 00:14:22.400 --> 00:14:24.680 and it's a $10 minimum bet, 381 00:14:24.680 --> 00:14:28.320 and the bets 100x payoff, but you only have 20 bucks. 382 00:14:28.320 --> 00:14:30.480 You're only gonna get two swings, 383 00:14:30.480 --> 00:14:32.920 which means the likelihood that you fail entirely 384 00:14:32.920 --> 00:14:34.760 is four out of five. 385 00:14:34.760 --> 00:14:36.600 You have a 20% chance of actually winning 386 00:14:36.600 --> 00:14:38.640 and 80% chance of losing period. 387 00:14:39.640 --> 00:14:41.360 And so this is, in my opinion, 388 00:14:41.360 --> 00:14:44.600 a more realistic take of what it's like to be a business owner. 389 00:14:44.600 --> 00:14:46.520 We do not have unlimited swings. 390 00:14:46.520 --> 00:14:49.280 We do not have unlimited resources. 391 00:14:49.280 --> 00:14:51.240 And so we have to be incredibly measured 392 00:14:51.240 --> 00:14:54.120 with which swings we choose to take. 393 00:14:54.120 --> 00:14:56.160 The highest likelihood swings 394 00:14:56.160 --> 00:14:59.400 are the problems that need to be solved in your business today. 395 00:14:59.400 --> 00:15:00.840 These are the sure money. 396 00:15:00.840 --> 00:15:04.520 These are the, as soon as you solve it, you cash it in. 397 00:15:04.520 --> 00:15:06.920 The things that are certainly not certain 398 00:15:06.920 --> 00:15:10.400 is the missed opportunities that are purely hypothetical. 399 00:15:10.400 --> 00:15:13.880 If you solve all the problems that you have at a current level, 400 00:15:13.880 --> 00:15:15.000 once you get to that, 401 00:15:15.000 --> 00:15:16.320 and there are times where you get there 402 00:15:16.320 --> 00:15:17.920 where everything's kind of humming along, 403 00:15:17.920 --> 00:15:21.240 that is when you look up your big missed opportunities list, 404 00:15:21.240 --> 00:15:22.800 your big money making idealist, 405 00:15:22.800 --> 00:15:25.760 and you say, now which of these will I take? 406 00:15:25.760 --> 00:15:27.480 And here's the interesting thing. 407 00:15:27.480 --> 00:15:30.680 If you do this, you will find that many of the ideas 408 00:15:30.680 --> 00:15:32.640 that you were jazzed about two months ago, 409 00:15:32.640 --> 00:15:34.040 now you think are stupid, 410 00:15:34.040 --> 00:15:36.840 because you found out more from solving the problems 411 00:15:36.920 --> 00:15:38.600 that actually give you more information 412 00:15:38.600 --> 00:15:40.800 that this is actually not a missed opportunity. 413 00:15:40.800 --> 00:15:42.520 And so it increases the likelihood 414 00:15:42.520 --> 00:15:44.960 that the swings you do take, the big swings, 415 00:15:44.960 --> 00:15:47.840 do result in the big payoff. 416 00:15:47.840 --> 00:15:50.040 This is like the ultimate sleep on it. 417 00:15:50.040 --> 00:15:51.280 Like if you have an amazing idea, 418 00:15:51.280 --> 00:15:52.280 don't tell them right then, 419 00:15:52.280 --> 00:15:53.640 because you're gonna oversell everybody, 420 00:15:53.640 --> 00:15:54.880 you're gonna oversell yourself. 421 00:15:54.880 --> 00:15:57.120 If you sleep on it the next day, you're a little less psyched. 422 00:15:57.120 --> 00:15:58.560 If you come back to two months later, 423 00:15:58.560 --> 00:16:00.200 you'll be amazed at how many of these things 424 00:16:00.200 --> 00:16:01.520 you just won't even wanna do anymore. 425 00:16:01.520 --> 00:16:04.360 And think about how stupid it would be 426 00:16:04.360 --> 00:16:06.880 if two months later, after looking at all your ideas, 427 00:16:06.880 --> 00:16:08.880 90% of them you don't wanna do anymore. 428 00:16:08.880 --> 00:16:10.920 It means that every one of those things 429 00:16:10.920 --> 00:16:12.480 that you shoved down your team's throat 430 00:16:12.480 --> 00:16:15.800 because you were excited about it was a mistake. 431 00:16:15.800 --> 00:16:17.760 It was you failing as an entrepreneur 432 00:16:17.760 --> 00:16:19.480 because you got too distracted, 433 00:16:19.480 --> 00:16:21.360 you got too excited about Shiny Object, 434 00:16:21.360 --> 00:16:23.920 you got to into the stuff that you like 435 00:16:23.920 --> 00:16:26.000 rather than confronting the stuff that you hate 436 00:16:26.000 --> 00:16:28.880 that will absolutely grow your company. 437 00:16:28.880 --> 00:16:31.080 This is something that I'm personally working on 438 00:16:31.080 --> 00:16:32.320 and I'm heated about it 439 00:16:32.320 --> 00:16:35.040 because this has been such an epiphany for me in terms, 440 00:16:35.040 --> 00:16:39.120 because I love any frameworks that allow me to better prioritize, 441 00:16:39.120 --> 00:16:42.320 that allow me to be a better strategic thinker for my business. 442 00:16:42.320 --> 00:16:46.240 And so this operationalizes better. 443 00:16:46.240 --> 00:16:47.560 Some of you guys may have noticed 444 00:16:47.560 --> 00:16:49.720 that I've been making a little bit less content lately. 445 00:16:49.720 --> 00:16:54.600 And so I've been super busy on this big missed opportunity. 446 00:16:54.600 --> 00:16:57.600 And I've been pouring tons and tons and tons of hours 447 00:16:57.600 --> 00:16:58.880 into this big new project, 448 00:16:58.880 --> 00:17:01.440 like massive thing for 2025. 449 00:17:01.440 --> 00:17:03.600 Layla basically came to me and she was like, 450 00:17:03.600 --> 00:17:04.920 I'm dying over here. 451 00:17:04.920 --> 00:17:07.120 Like I need your help, I need you back. 452 00:17:07.120 --> 00:17:08.680 We're doing business every day 453 00:17:08.680 --> 00:17:10.440 and you're over here trying to build the future. 454 00:17:10.440 --> 00:17:12.640 And the thing is this is not a problem to be solved 455 00:17:12.640 --> 00:17:14.280 is that dichotomy to be managed. 456 00:17:14.280 --> 00:17:16.520 If you're the visionary entrepreneur in the business, 457 00:17:16.520 --> 00:17:19.360 it's normal for you to live three months, six months, 458 00:17:19.360 --> 00:17:22.040 a year plus out, that's normal. 459 00:17:22.040 --> 00:17:25.000 But you can't take your eye off the ball from today. 460 00:17:25.000 --> 00:17:26.640 And so for me, this was a pendulum 461 00:17:26.640 --> 00:17:29.000 that I was swinging too far in this direction. 462 00:17:29.000 --> 00:17:31.600 She was like, dude, you need to make some content. 463 00:17:31.600 --> 00:17:33.680 You're not spending any time on it. 464 00:17:33.680 --> 00:17:35.960 For you guys, it may not be content, right? 465 00:17:35.960 --> 00:17:37.760 It may be you need to make ads. 466 00:17:37.760 --> 00:17:39.720 It may be you need to be looking at the outbound team. 467 00:17:39.720 --> 00:17:41.640 It may be our customer success is failing. 468 00:17:41.640 --> 00:17:45.120 Whatever that thing is, it was the thing that's hard. 469 00:17:45.120 --> 00:17:46.400 Despite the fact that everyone thinks 470 00:17:46.400 --> 00:17:50.400 that I'm a content creator, this is not my main job, all right? 471 00:17:50.400 --> 00:17:53.280 And so my life is not as much as I try, right? 472 00:17:53.280 --> 00:17:54.960 As much as I try to make more content, everybody. 473 00:17:54.960 --> 00:17:56.840 It's not the main thing still. 474 00:17:56.840 --> 00:17:58.760 But I let it get away from me. 475 00:17:58.760 --> 00:18:00.320 I've given, I've learned to over time, 476 00:18:00.320 --> 00:18:01.680 give myself a little bit of grace and saying, 477 00:18:01.680 --> 00:18:03.800 this, I will never solve this. 478 00:18:03.800 --> 00:18:05.760 It is unsolvable. 479 00:18:05.760 --> 00:18:08.480 But it's simply about percentages of the pie 480 00:18:08.480 --> 00:18:11.880 that I'm going to allocate to now versus the future. 481 00:18:11.880 --> 00:18:14.600 And I get a little bit too over indexed on the future. 482 00:18:14.600 --> 00:18:16.080 That's in my nature. 483 00:18:16.080 --> 00:18:19.400 And so I have to overemphasize the present. 484 00:18:19.400 --> 00:18:22.280 Because if this doesn't work, 485 00:18:22.280 --> 00:18:24.600 then that will never happen anyways. 486 00:18:24.600 --> 00:18:27.720 Leila has always been so grounded in today. 487 00:18:27.720 --> 00:18:29.000 And I've been so grounded in the future, 488 00:18:29.000 --> 00:18:30.280 that's been our Yin and Yang. 489 00:18:30.280 --> 00:18:31.880 But we both try and mean them. 490 00:18:31.880 --> 00:18:33.880 I have to pull her towards the future and be like, 491 00:18:33.880 --> 00:18:35.840 hey, let's, like this is where we're going. 492 00:18:35.840 --> 00:18:38.400 This is, we have to build it this way to get to here. 493 00:18:38.400 --> 00:18:41.000 And she's like, yeah, but that's a massive pain for me. 494 00:18:41.000 --> 00:18:42.280 And so that's the Yin and the Yang 495 00:18:42.280 --> 00:18:43.840 that I think everybody has with their operator 496 00:18:43.840 --> 00:18:45.120 if you don't have one. 497 00:18:45.120 --> 00:18:47.440 Confront your problems today. 498 00:18:47.440 --> 00:18:49.840 Forget about your opportunities for tomorrow. 499 00:18:49.840 --> 00:18:51.240 Put them on the big list. 500 00:18:51.240 --> 00:18:54.760 Once you've solved all the problems, go revisit the list 501 00:18:54.840 --> 00:18:59.240 and then pick the one that has the highest likelihood 502 00:18:59.240 --> 00:19:01.520 of yielding the biggest return for you 503 00:19:01.520 --> 00:19:03.240 and then go all in on it. 504 00:19:03.240 --> 00:19:04.720 With that, bye.