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Business is different from baseball in that.

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In baseball, when you swing for the fences,

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the most you can ever score is four runs, right?

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But in business, every once in a while,

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when you step up to the plate,

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if you hit the ball hard enough,

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you can score a thousand runs.

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If you have a chance of a hundred times pay off,

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and you've got a one at a 10 chance of hitting it,

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you should take that bet every time.

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I think that that's not, it's correct mathematically,

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but in practicality, I think there's another sentence

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that needs to be added to it.

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Welcome to the Jim Secrets podcast,

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where you talk about how to get more customers,

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how to make more customers,

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and how to keep them longer.

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And the many failures and lessons

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that we have learned along the way,

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I hope you enjoy and subscribe.

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What's going on, everyone?

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Happy, I think today's Saturday.

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Give you a nice, beautiful lake view.

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Very, very pretty out here.

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We're in a bearer lake on the quarter of Utah in Idaho.

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But recently, I've been spending a lot of time reading.

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It's specifically reading from people

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who make a lot more money than I do.

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And I think that I haven't had a good,

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kind of a little bit more head-y of a podcast

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until recently, so I'm gonna try and break that streak today.

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So one of the hardest learned lessons

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that I've, I mean, and I'm still actively learning it,

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but every time I take a step towards

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kind of a better ideal in this direction,

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I make significantly more money.

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And so I figured I'd share it with you.

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So in some of my earlier podcasts,

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I talk a lot about focus, right, about learning to say no.

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And I think that over the last year and a half, two years,

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there have been my hardest learned lessons

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where I said yes to opportunities

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that were now at a larger size

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than what I used to learn to say no to.

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And so I've referenced the opportunities

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that come to us as like the woman in the red dress,

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if you're familiar with the matrix, is that,

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the thing is that at every opportunity level,

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as you level up, the opportunities become sexier, right?

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The woman in the red dress becomes more attractive,

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because in the very beginning,

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before you've made any money, anything is attractive.

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You say yes to anything.

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But then as you acquire more and more skills,

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more and more opportunities open up,

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and better and better opportunities open up,

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which is why you have to like relearn the same concept

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but at a different level, right?

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Because at one point, you don't say,

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you say yes to a $10 million opportunity,

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or $1 million opportunity, everything's relative, right?

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But at another level, you have to learn to say no to that,

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if you were above that at that certain time,

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and I think I've made that mistake multiple times

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at different levels.

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And so I'm partially making this video for me.

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And so there's a book called The Road Less Stupid.

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It's really, really good.

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I'd highly recommend it, especially if you're an entrepreneur.

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And especially if you're prone to getting excited

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about new ideas constantly wanting to innovate,

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constantly wanting to tweak and change things,

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which is really, really the thing that excites us a lot.

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And it's a lot of times it's the key to big breakthroughs.

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That being said, one of the quotes I used to quote a lot

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was from Jeff Bezos, who said, basically business

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is different from baseball in that.

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In baseball, when you swing for the fences,

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the most you can ever score is four runs, right?

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But in business, every once in a while,

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when you step up to the plate, if you hit the ball hard enough,

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you can score 1,000 runs.

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And so people who bet big win big,

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but they bear the cost of experimentation, right?

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And so he references earlier on in that little address

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that he said, if you have a chance of 100 times pay off,

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and you've got a one at a chance of hitting it,

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you should take that bet every time.

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And after having thought about this,

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I mean, Jeff obviously makes a lot more money than I do.

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I think that that's not, it's correct mathematically.

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But in practicality, I think there's

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another sentence that needs to be added to it.

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And so to give it a realistic context,

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imagine you're going to the casino,

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and that's the bet, right?

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That's the bet is you have to put, let's say, $10 down,

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and you can win 1,000, but you've got a one at a 10 chance,

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right?

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Now here's where it makes it realistic.

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Let's say you only go into the casino with $30,

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then what do you do?

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Think about it.

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So that means that if you were to bet three times,

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you've only got a one at a three chance

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of coming out of the casino with anything, right?

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And so that's, I think, a more realistic paradigm

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for what most entrepreneurs go into is

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because you have a constrained amount of capital money,

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and a constrained amount of time and resources

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and bandwidth for your team.

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And so kind of adapting that extra sentence on there

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of just understanding that there's a cost

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to making that bet.

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It's not just, oh, if I have a one at a 10 chance

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of scoring 1,000, then I should definitely

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make that bet every time for a $10 bet.

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Yes, you absolutely should mathematically.

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And in Jeff's case, he's had an access to unlimited money,

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virtually unlimited money for 20 years.

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He's been able to race funding and fund,

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I mean, they have $500 million mess ups

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and they're like, whoops, that didn't work,

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but a lot of us don't have that.

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And so there's in the book, The Road Less Stupid,

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he gives a context that I think

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has really, really been useful for me even lately

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in making decisions about opportunities, right?

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It's the things that I have to say no to.

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And so the three questions are really simple,

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which is why I've been using them so much,

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which is, what's my upside?

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What's my downside?

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And can I live assuming that the downside's going to happen?

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And so the third question stated a little bit differently,

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but that's how I'm using it.

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And in phrasing the three questions that way,

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it's helped me so much in saying no, right?

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In like, man, why don't we try this new follow-up sequence

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so that we can get more leads in?

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Well, what's my upside?

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Maybe I get a 10% boost.

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What's my downside?

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I lose 50% because the test doesn't work or it bombs,

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because what I'm going against is a control

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which has already been tested against other things

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and is working.

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Hey, if you're a return listener

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and you have not rated or reviewed the show,

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I want you to know that you should feel

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absolutely terrible about yourself

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and everything else in the world I'm kidding.

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But it would mean the absolute world to me,

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if you guys would go ahead and do that,

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and you don't even have to pause to show you,

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keep listening and you can just do it with your thumb right now,

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take less than 60 seconds.

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And like I said, the only way that podcast grows

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through word of mouth and this is you joining hands with me

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and helping as many entrepreneurs as we possibly can

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because no one is coming to save us, it's just us.

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All right, so please go do that now

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and let's get back to the show.

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And can I live with my downside of losing 50%

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for the hopes of gaining 10?

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No, I can't because I'm going to assume

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I'm going to make that loss and so then I just say no.

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And what's happening is it's giving me so much attention back

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so that when I'm making my bets

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because ultimately if you really think about what business is

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and it's very basic, it's just betting,

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which is why a lot of entrepreneurs love gambling.

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Because it's what we do, we do it in controlled setting,

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it's like businesses the ultimate version of poker, right?

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Like poker is a combination of skill and luck, right?

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Business I would say is even more skill

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and still a little bit of luck.

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And so it just has more skill in our control,

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but the end of the day they're still bets they're replacing.

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It's not just on black and red.

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It's should I hire a salesperson first

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or should I spend more on this marketing campaign?

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Should I test out this new follow-up sequence

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or should we try and run SEO

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or should we do cold outbound messenger, right?

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And so it's like all of these things

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or decisions where you're choosing

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between two different opportunities.

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And I think if you apply that framework,

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that three question framework,

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it's been, for me it's been a game changer,

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it's been so helpful.

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And we've seen huge reaps,

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we've reaped the benefit in the business.

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Just in the last 90 days, even during COVID,

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we've had some explosive growth.

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I'll tell you more about it in a couple of months.

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But it's been in really trying to hone that discipline

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and I feel like at every level,

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you get that discipline muscle gets stronger

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and stronger and stronger

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and the things that I'm able to say notes

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you get better and better and better.

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And so one of the things that,

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if you look at, if you study like Charlie Mugler

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or in front of it,

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you talk about the best, the best bettors,

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the best gamblers actually bet the least frequently.

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They actually bet the fewest amount of times,

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but when they bet, they bet big.

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And so I'm trying to really apply that

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and when they bet big,

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they bet on what they call no brainers, right?

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It shouldn't be like, you should have,

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in their mind, virtually no chance of not succeeding

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when you make the bet, right?

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And then if you think about that,

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then you're like, well shoot, there's,

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I mean, when will I ever see those types of bets?

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If you look at them over 40 years,

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they only have 15 bets that have created

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all of the billions that they've been able to generate.

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15, 15 winning bets out of all the bets

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they've made have been the winning bets

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that got them to where they are.

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And I think that in business, it's a lot like that.

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So let me just tell you one quick anecdote to wrap this up.

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To make this real for you,

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tell me if this sounds realistic.

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You get really excited about a new concept,

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a new idea that you think you're gonna test out, right?

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And you pitch it to the team,

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you let them know what's gonna happen,

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you're saying we're starting on Monday,

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this can be the new way we do things.

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The team's not 100% trained up on it,

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but they're kinda flies you go,

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you're actually just kidding,

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let's rock and roll with this thing,

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you know, we'll pick it up as we go.

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And after a month or two months,

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you look back at your stats and they're pretty much the same.

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Maybe even a little bit less.

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But there's like three other things

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that happened during that same period of time.

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So you're like, I don't know if it was this

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or it was because of the new process.

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Honestly, you know, there's this and that.

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And then all of a sudden,

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you realize that you didn't even get a definitive answer

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on the test that you ran.

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And you definitely didn't get the result

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that you were hoping for.

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And so what ends up happening is that your company

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and you incurred this enormous cost of change

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without any real upside.

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And so in thinking through the bets that I'm making now,

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I'm assuming the cost.

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And what I mean, like I'm assuming

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that I'm gonna have the downside.

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Even the one that I'm understanding,

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but I'm assuming there's gonna be some that are unknown

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that I'm going to have to incur.

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And so when I'm making that assumption,

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which is that third question,

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which is, and can I live with it,

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assuming that it does happen?

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It's just like, it's been so illuminating for me

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and so helpful for me because what happens is,

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you get in these vicious cycles especially,

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especially if you're in an emotional situation right,

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because I know a lot of business owners in general right now

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are cash constrained, they're trying to figure out what to do,

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they're trying to pivot fast,

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make fastest decisions on incomplete information,

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sometimes that's just the name of the game, right?

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But in doing that, they're hoping for the Hail Mary.

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And so their internal optimism,

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which is what leads them to be an entrepreneur,

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ends up weighing against them.

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It ends up stacking the chips against them

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because that one thing which has been your hope, right?

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Your greatest strengths can become your greatest weakness

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as an entrepreneur, there's no different, right?

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Our optimism can become our Achilles heel

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because we believe that the chance of success

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is actually greater than it really is

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and we underestimate the cost of taking the bet.

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And that's where we get fucked, right?

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And so when you go back to the casino

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and when you're considering the bets and you're like,

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man, if this hits, this could be 10 times

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what we're doing right now, right?

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But just remember, you only might have three bets to make

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and you got a one out of 10 shot.

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So use them wisely.

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So anyways, I hope that was useful for you.

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It's been incredibly useful for me.

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I've been saying no to way more tests and tweaks

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and variations and just small things

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that would really distract the team

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and just saying, guys, we're just gonna keep focusing

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on executing, we're gonna keep focusing

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on doing better at the fundamentals

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and it continues to pay dividends

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because the team doesn't have to be scattered.

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They just have to think how can we get 1% better every day

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rather than 1% better for two weeks and then change everything

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and then 1% better for two weeks

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and then change everything, right?

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Where they never actually get to get that long-term

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compounding improvement, which is what ultimately

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will separate you over time.

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So like I said, hope that was valid before you.

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It's been a huge lesson for me and in studying

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some of the greats, the all time greats,

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seeing how they make decisions,

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seeing where they place their bets.

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I wish I had learned it earlier,

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but hopefully I can pass at least that

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and not get on to you because it's been really helpful for me.

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So lots of love, keep being awesome.

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Hope you've been meeting Saturday.
