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One of the key differences that I see with people who are successful and do

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grow and do scale is that they have a firm understanding of probability.

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Welcome to the game where we talk about how to get more customers, how to make

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more customers, how to keep them longer, and the many failures and lessons we

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have learned along the way. I hope you enjoy and subscribe. What's going on

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everyone? I want to share a quick lesson that I had yesterday with my 18-year-old

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neighbor who's going through his entrepreneurial journey and this is a lot of fun for

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me because he's at ground zero so I'm hearing the anxieties and the worries and

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the false beliefs kind of come up as they go and I get to confront them and

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kind of ask good questions. The lesson or the theme of yesterday was around

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volume and luck. One of the key differences that I see with people who are

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successful and do grow and do scale is that they have a firm understanding of

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probability. What that means is chance. What's the percentage likelihood that

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something happens? If you want to be an investor, then you have to calculate

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the risk associated with an investment. That's a probability outcome. If you

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are a business owner, you have to gamble on marketing and assess the

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probability that you will get a return on that investment. What's interesting is

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that volume negates luck. If you can put that in your brain, volume negates luck.

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Luck is a word that people who don't understand probability use as a

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space filler. If I were to say, hey, for every 100,000 emails I send, I get

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1,000 back and from 1,000 that I get back, I know that I'm going to close 500

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of those people on a deal. That's not realistic math. I would probably close

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a lot more than that, but the point is, but if I explain that math to you, you

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probably, I'd be like, is that luck that I closed 500 deals? You'd probably be

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like, no, that's just probability. That's just, I know that if I reach this

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many people, the probability that there is one person who's interested in the

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in the services that I have is high, right? And the thing is that if you do

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enough volume, you can negate luck. You can also negate skill, which is a

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bri product of the volume. Let me, let me, let me, let me dive into that. Let me

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unpack that for a second. So let's say you suck, right? Because you're brand new

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and of course you would suck. Because why would you be good? Because you've

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never done this before. Whatever it is, right? And so this is like the

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conversation I'm having with my neighbor. You can imagine me as like, like, coach,

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you get 18 year old, get him. Like, of course you suck. You're supposed to suck.

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You're not supposed to be good, right? And the thing is, is like, because of

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social media, because of Instagram, because of all these things, everyone,

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especially, you know, the guys who are younger right now, and maybe it's the

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same for guys who are in the 30s, whatever, is that they just immediately

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assume they should be a millionaire the first year, right? Just like, I should be

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a million. Why am I not a millionaire? Right? And so that's what stops 99% of

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people from being successful because they're unwilling to suck, right? And it

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hurts their ego too much to be bad. And so then they say, oh, this isn't for

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me, right? And so anyways, back to the point of the volume versus, you know,

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negating the luck in the skill component is that let's say the normal

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numbers, let's say I was I was coaching him on on cold calling, right? Because

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that's what he's doing right now. And I said, listen, it's going to take, you

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know, it should take you about a thousand cold calls to get, you know, one deal,

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right? And let's say he comes to me and he says, well, I've done 5,000, right? I'm

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like, okay, and it's a lot of a deal. I'm like, and you suck. Of course, you

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don't have a deal. You've never done this before. Do another 5,000 because the

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thing is it's eventually you will, it will be unreasonable for you to suck

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anymore, right? It would be unreasonable for you to not have found one person. If

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you do this for a straight year, and I'm trying to paint this longer picture for

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him, a year, and I know when you're 18, a year sounds like forever, but like a

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year, if you did this for five years, if you did nothing but call call for five

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years, do you think you would be good at cold calling? And he was like, yeah,

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probably. I was like, do you feel like you're much better now than you were one

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month ago when you started this? And he was like, I'm like, nine day better.

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Like I can get past, you know, I can open now, I can have conversation. I was

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getting hung up on, and I was like, right. And so you have this binary measure of

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progress, which is I either close to sail or I didn't close the sail. When in

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reality, there's tons of bricks on the bridge on the way to getting the first

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dollar over, right? And the first deal, the first dollar independent of whatever

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you're doing is the always the hardest one. And it's because you have to learn a

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lot of little skills before you get the big payoff, right? And most people

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learn one skill or don't learn a skill and then think, up, this isn't for me.

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Most of the nation real quick, if you are a business owner that has a big old

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business and wants to get to a much bigger business, going to $50 million plus,

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we would love to talk to you. And if you like that, and would like to hear more

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about it, go to acquisition.com and you can plan anywhere on the page and talk

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to one of our team and see if we can help you get there.

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Right. And so I told him that the only way that I would give him my blessing for

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him to quit is if he could convince me that the entire industry of wholesaling

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real estate had disappeared. If you can convince me that the entire

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industry of wholesaling real estate has disappeared, you will have my blessing to quit.

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And obviously that's not going to happen because people have been making money in

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wholesaling real estate for a long time, right? There's always going to be

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inefficiencies and marketplaces between buyers and sellers, right? Unless some

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magical technology comes through, which it might in ten years, who knows? But

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right now it exists. And so I said the only thing that separates you from what you want

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is skill. And the only way to acquire that skill is volume, right? And the thing is,

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is when you have enough skill, you get luckier, right? You don't need to do 10,000 calls to get

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that one deal because honestly, maybe in the beginning, that is the biggest laydown

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person you'll ever have, but then it gives you conviction that it can happen, right?

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And so the more volume you, the better you get, and therefore the luckier you become.

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But the big picture is that people who invest, people who do business at larger scale,

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just understand probability, right? They understand that there is a percentage. Now,

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what's the worst thing that can happen is let's say this is a fun scenario to think about,

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is let's say his first day, he gets on the phone and he somehow closes the deal, right?

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And that one deal may have been that one deal out of 10,000, that if he had started at the

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other end of the call list, it might have taken him a month to get there, but he just happens to do

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it first. How much do you think that messes him up? A ton, maybe, maybe or probably even more

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than working really hard to get there. And so I don't know about you, but I feel like I've definitely

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had occasions where I've lucked out and then I start questioning, I was, what am I doing different?

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What am I doing different? They might not be doing anything different. You might have just hit the

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hit the gold nugget way too early in the cycle and now you got to sift through a lot more

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nose to get to your next one. You might have to sift through twice as many nose as normal because

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you got to, you got to account for the nose from the first one that you never actually hit, right?

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And so anyways, as I'm walking him through this, right? It just reminded me of how when people are

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starting out, they don't understand the concept of large numbers, right? If you want to become lucky,

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if you want to have probability on your side, you simply increase N, increase the number,

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increase the volume and eventually you will strike gold. And the thing is that most people just

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literally don't go long enough. He honestly was doing the little system that he's purchased

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the wrong way up until like a week ago. And so I was like, cool, well, your first three weeks are

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wasted that you weren't doing it the right way, right? You've now officially been doing this for seven

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days, right? You feel like it's unreasonable. Like do you feel like it'd be reasonable for you to have

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a top one percent income in the United States after one month of learning a new skill? He was like,

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no, and I was like, then stop believing you should. I was like, if you do this for four years,

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because he's not right now, he's, he's pushing off college to do this. I was like, if you do this

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for four straight years, I was like, do you think it'd be reasonable that you'd be able to close one

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deal a month by the end of that? And he was like, yeah, and I was like, cool, then you're already twice

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as wealthy as the average college person who would be leaving, right? Except you have four more

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users of experience than they do. And so I'm trying to like paint these paint, just give him a different

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frame of seeing success and seeing the work that's required to get there. And I was like, what happens if

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what happens if it's six years and you're 24? What happens if it's six years, 24 and you're not a

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millionaire yet? What happens that? He was like, I mean, I'd be, you know, I was like, what, you be

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disappointed? You're not a millionaire at 24? Come on, man. The thing is is he might actually be,

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right? If he actually sticks with it for six straight years. But most people end up hopping

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and always doing these half-built bridges where they, they learn two, three, four of the skills,

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but there's ten that they have to learn and they say, this isn't for me. And they jump to another

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one, they start building a new bridge, right? When the reality is you just have to keep laying the

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bricks, keep laying the bricks, keep laying the bricks all the way across the bridge from where you

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are to where you want to be. And then the first dollar walks across. And it takes a lot of time to

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put those bricks in place and to figure out which brick you're missing. And the only way to do it

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is more. And that is how you'll get better at the skill that gets the dollar across the bridge.

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So anyways, more, more, more sagas of my 18-year-old workout afternoon lessons. I hope you enjoy this.

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If you do, you know, subscribe, like, comment, all that kind of good stuff. And I'll see you in the next

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video. Bye!