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If you're picking businesses, the difference that he and I had is that his mentors always

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went super, super big. They wanted to go change the world and whatnot. But what I don't think we see

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or appropriately bit risk or value is the graveyard full of people who went big and struck out.

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The wealthiest people in the world see business as a game. This podcast, the game, is my attempt

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at documenting the lessons I've learned on my way to building acquisition.com into a billion dollar

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portfolio. My hope is that you use the lessons to grow your business and maybe someday soon

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partner with us to get $200 million beyond. I hope you share and enjoy.

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There are two big risks that exist in business. The first is the execution risk. The second is the

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idea risk. Now you can maybe make an argument for a third being, you know, environmental risk,

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regulatory risk, things like that. But I would say big picture is, does the idea fundamentally work?

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You know, having strangers drive kids around in cars is going to be a really good idea. Uber,

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or creating lockers for cats. Is that going to be a good idea? I don't know. Or am I going to be

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able to execute the idea itself? And if you don't know who I am, my name is Alex Ramuzzi. I own

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acquisition.com. It's a portfolio of companies that have over $100 million a year. I like talking

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about business stuff and hopefully making fewer people broke in the world makes me die happy.

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Okay, so I was having a really good conversation with a friend of mine who's a software entrepreneur.

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He's had three or four software companies. None of them have really hit. He's about the same age

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as me and he and I sit in very different financial positions at this point in our life. And we were

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having a really in depth conversation around this topic, which is appropriately measuring risk.

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And so one of the issues that I see with a lot of newer entrepreneurs is that they overestimate

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the payoff for a risk and underestimate the cost number one. And second is they overestimate

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the likelihood of success they're going to have and they underestimate the risk in terms of the

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likelihood that they fail. And I think this is really interesting because he and I were discussing

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the first quote that I have. It's kind of it's in the intro of my book by Jeff basis. I'll read

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it to you right now. Outside returns often come from betting against conventional wisdom and

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conventional wisdom is usually right. Given a 10% chance of a hundred times payoff, you should take

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that bet every time. But you're still going to be wrong nine times out of 10. We all know that if

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you swing for the fences, you're going to strike out a lot. But if you're also going to hit some

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home runs. The difference between baseball and business however is that baseball has a truncated

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outcome distribution. When you swing, no matter how well you connect with the ball, the most

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runs you can get is four. In business, every once in a while, when you step up to the plate,

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you can score a thousand runs. This long tail distribution of returns, it's why it's important

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to be bold. Big winners pay for so many experiments. Jeff basis. And so the thing is is that there are

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two big costs when you're making these risks. One is you've got the money and things like that,

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but I think the biggest cost is time. And so if you think about portfolio theory, which is,

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for example, like venture capital, VCs, though, let's say they take 50 companies on and they're

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betting the fact that one of those 50 companies is going to, you know, 100X and pretty much carry

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the return to the entire portfolio. And for the vast majority of the other ones, they either got

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a business or basically not really do anything spectacular. And so for the VC, for the venture

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capital, the investor, it makes sense to take this approach because they're going to get very good

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returns using, you know, using this method. Whereas if you are one of the 49, you know, founders

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who has pretty much all of the net worth investing this thing and it takes five years of your life

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away to only fail, it can be harder to swallow. And so he and I have had very different careers

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in lives and it's because we value risk differently. Now he would say that he is not interested in

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making money and he just wants to do something really big and really cool. I tend to be more money

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focused or money driven, whatever you want to say, because I think that the accumulation of money

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will allow me to do really cool things later on in my life. And when I say later, I mean, like,

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you know, give me 20, 30 years of doing this. And I think we can do that. Now, the reason that I want

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to bring up this topic is because picking the business that you're going to go after I think is a

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very important question that you're going to ask yourself. And you have to understand that you're

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probably going to fail many times before you are successful. And one of the hardest questions in

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entrepreneurship, this is also one of the things that come up in the conversation, is when do I push

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or when do I pivot, right? When do I keep pushing? When do I keep persevering on this idea that's

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not quite working? And when do I pivot? And it's one of the hardest questions in entrepreneurship

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because you don't know whether it's you or the idea. And that's what's hard because sometimes

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it's like how many great business ideas have the founders have abandoned six inches from gold,

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where they just needed to push a little bit harder and they were going to have the breakthrough.

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And I hesitate to talk about the subject because I think most people just don't know how to

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push it all. And so, you know, I put that as a big caveat. Now, when we're talking about business

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in general, I, and this is my difference from my friend, I prefer to only go after ideas that I

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think have virtually no risk of not being ideas that people want, which then leaves only me as the

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variable, the execution risk that it can be done well, it can be well-businessed, right? And so

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I think in a lot of ways, this is just Alex's two cents, most newer entrepreneurs I think would be

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better served going after boring businesses that have established needs, right? So people want

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to have, you know, businesses want more customers. People want to make more money. People want

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higher paying jobs. People want to have skills that are valuable. People want, you know, to lose

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weight. People want love. People want, you know, entertainment. Like these are all things that are

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not going to change over time. And so what that allows you to do is hone your skills at business

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because you know if it doesn't work, it's only you. It's only your fault if it doesn't work,

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right? And so because the problem is that having the perspective from which to make a judgment on

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whether you have product market fit can be, I think, a much harder decision of when to push and

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when to pivot. Most of the nation real quick, if you are a business owner that has a big old

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business and wants to get to a much bigger business, going to $50, $100,000 plus, we would love to

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talk to you. And if you like that, we would like to hear more about it. Go to acquisition.com

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and you can plan anywhere on the page and talk to one of our team and see if we can help you get there.

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You know, as a total side note, because I think this is really interesting. I think there's

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three big questions that are really dichotomies that you have to manage as an entrepreneur, right?

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One is one to push and one to pivot. The second is how much do I spend versus how much do I,

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sorry, how much do I consume versus how much do I invest, right? Because you're going to be living

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your whole life. If you always forego the immediate satisfaction, you may reach the end of your

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life and never have enjoyed anything, right? So there's a little bit of a balance there that you

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have to strike, right? And it probably shifts over time, but there still means that there's some

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level of consumption even earlier on in your life. And at the same time, you also don't know if you're

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going to live tomorrow, right? And that's where it gets really interesting. It's a personal question,

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right? And the third is kind of the balance between like how much do I, you know, delegate to other

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people versus how much do I do, right? Because you got to do something and you can't delegate

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everything, right? Like, and so there's, there's balances here. And so today it's just about the

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push and the pivot and idea risk versus execution risk. And so for the new entrepreneurs,

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you probably suck at business. And that's okay. And that's because you're new, which is totally

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reasonable, totally acceptable. And of course, you should suck because it's hard and a lot of people

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do it, right? And if you want to be in the top one percent, it's one percent of people. That

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means you have to beat 99 other people out of 100 in order to be the top one percent, which is

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only 400,000 a year, right? Not only. It's a lot of money, right? And so the thing is is that

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Instagram makes everyone feel like if you're not making money out of your poor, which is not true.

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You can save 400,000 a year for not that long and have a lot of money, you know what I mean? And so

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anyways, back to the point, if you're picking businesses, the difference that he and I had is that

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his mentors always went super, super big. They wanted to go change the world and whatnot. But what I

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don't think we see or probably risk or value is the graveyard full of people who went big

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and struck out. And I think it's an interesting caveat to this. Jeff Bezos gives this example,

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and I want to dive into it in a little bit more detail, is that let's zoom out for a second. Let's

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eliminate Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Warren Buffett from the names that you have in your head.

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If we were to think what would be required to be number one in the world at a thing, right? You'd

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have to have the natural proclivity, right? Because if you're committing it to everybody, the people

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who are going to have natural advantages based on genetic code upbringing, whatever are going to,

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they're going to, they're going to win more, right? So that'd be the first thing we'd want if we

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wanted to create this person who's going to be likely to win. Number two is they'd have to have

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a tremendous amount of skill, right? So they'd have the natural proclivity, the, the nurture that

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created an environment where they had work ethic to pursue the skill, right? So they have to be very,

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very good. And then third, they'd have to be lucky, right? Because if you think about a whole

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bunch of people, like imagine everybody who's born really, you know, has his natural tendencies or

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proclivities towards these activities, right? And then does a ton of it in terms of volume. So they

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get very good. What then separates them? Luck, right? The people at the very, very, very top have all

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of the things aligned, comma, and luck. And so it's interesting that he has this quote around risk

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because one of the things that's unique about Bezos and even Elon, right? And this is probably

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a further discussion on business strategy overall is that they've had virtually limitless access

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to capital, right? Like as in they can basically raise money endlessly to fund these risks, right?

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And so the equation that he said, which is a matchy go to Vegas casino, there's a, there's a table

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that has a 10% chance of winning, but you get a hundred times payout when you do. If you can play

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the game on an unlimited time horizon, then you absolutely should just play it as many times

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as smoothly possible. But most of us do not have unlimited spins, right? And that's where this gets

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more interesting. And so if you were to imagine a dollar as a year of life, okay?

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that you have in your entrepreneurial career. And let's say to build something really epic would take

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10 years. And that's like minimum, you know what I mean? Like Facebook was 20 is 20 years old now,

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right? Which is kind of insane to think about. I think is 20 years old. Is it 20 years old? I feel

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like it's 20 years old. It's pretty old. 15 years old. It's pretty old, right? Let's just say 15,

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right? If you want to build something epic, which means and how long does it take to test the idea

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before moving on, right? That's another big question. Like how long does it take to really

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give it your all on a thing? And so we were having the discussion and he said, I think we should say

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$35 would be, you know, you have 35 years of life. And how long do we chunk? And we agreed on

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five years as a mid ground because it takes 15 to really see something all the way through.

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If we said 15 was the chunk, that didn't seem realistic because it doesn't take you 15 years

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to find out something doesn't work, right? And so it's that bad. So we said five was the number.

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You can come up with your own, right? And so a more realistic way to see this, right? It would be,

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you know, you've got a one out of 10 shot at 100 times payout, but the minimum bet is five.

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And you've got 35 bucks. Interesting. The conversation changes. Now let's say that you're now 15

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years in. Let's see, you bet three times, you lost all three times, which would be reasonable. That

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would be expected that you lose three times. You could even lose all three of the first times.

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But now you're 15 years in and you have still no money. Huh? How do you feel about yourself?

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How do you feel about your skill? What's your reputation? All these things kind of weigh in. You know,

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what I mean? And this is why I think this is a really interesting discussion. And so I will give

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you my two cents because he and I disagree on these things because I have the perspective that

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all the people that I know are the wealthiest in the world eliminate risk. So that's what they do.

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They control risk. They virtually eliminated. They figure out ways to play the game in new ways

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where they cannot lose. Right? I'll give you an example. If the rock came out with a, I'm trying

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to think of something he hasn't come out with because he come out with a parallel and whatever. Let's

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see him out with, let's see him out of the book. Right? Let's say, let's say the rock writes a book.

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Maybe he already has written a book. I don't know. And he writes a book. What is the what what's the

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likelihood? That it's not a best seller. Virtually zero. Right? It's virtually zero. So he's

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basically limited the risk because he controls another variable, which is a massive audience. Right?

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And you can build that deliberately. And so when we think about these things, the richest people

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that I know control risk and only play games where if they wait, they win. And my friend has not

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taken that approach. And he's like, Hey, I just want to go big or go home. And the thing is that

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he's gone home more than he's gone big. And so I, I will give you Alex's two cents and you can

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choose to do what you want with it. And I'll just explain my views on risk. I tend to go with the

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highest likelihood bet. And I tend to, if I have two bets, let's say one where I have a 10x payoff

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for a one out of two shots, right? Which would be a two to one risk adjust to return. All right? If you

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curious, you just multiply the payoff by the by the likelihood. Or is that's a five X? Sorry,

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I've messed that up. But you get the idea. You multiply the payoff by the percentage likelihood.

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And if I had an equivalent risk adjust to return another one, but I had a higher likelihood of

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achieving it. So if I had a five X that I or a six X that I thought I had a four out of five

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chance of getting versus a 10x that I had on the math on it, but whatever, a one out of two shot

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of getting, I would pick the the four out of five shot that had a lower upside. That's me.

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And I think part of that is because the games that are set up that way are usually going to be

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just execution risk businesses. And I feel like I can I can pay that down in other ways, right?

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I can pay down that risk so I can virtually nothing's guaranteed, but I can virtually

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guarantee the outcome. And so my goal is to string as many of these virtually guaranteed

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upsides in my favor for a long enough period of time that I let compounding work.

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Because compounding on a long enough time horizon creates the outsides return. And so the idea

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is how can I play how can I get as many W's in a row and as few L's as possible for a long enough

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time horizon so that I create the outsides return comma and get to live a pretty cool and stress-free

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or not stress-free, but like a pretty cool life along the way. Right now, if we played the game

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the way that we talked about earlier where you have the 35 years that you can bet and your three bets

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in your 15 years in and you don't have anything, that can be pretty hard. Hard on your ego,

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hard on your reputation, maybe you learn bad habit, like there's a lot of things because you

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won't know, especially if there's an idea risk that's at hand, like is it me or was it the idea?

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Right? And so for that reason, I'm in favor of the significantly lower risk and he and I were

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talking back and forth, he's like, you know what I've observed from you is that you just

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you go for the sure thing and that's 100% what I do. That is I've always gone for the sure thing.

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And then I just continue to try and trade up the upside of my sure things, right? So the first

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sure thing you can have is a very high-paying income job. And then the next sure thing would be like,

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if I were to quit a job, I would make sure that I had more income from my side hustle probably,

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where I believed it would be very reasonable for me to get that within a very short period of time.

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So then I would make maybe that switch and then I would look at all the opportunities that

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existed and think, okay, what are these things on a risk-adjusted basis? And this is again,

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where people make errors, just assume you have to take the negative assumptions and I would say like the

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the better I get at this at thinking this way that the more I continue to make, which is I'm going

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to assume everything goes wrong, what then do I make, right? And so if you can just say like

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assuming none of the good things that you think are reasonable are going to happen happen,

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can you still win? And I think when you think that way, what happens is you give yourself room to be

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pleasantly surprised and exceed expectations. But what happens is when you set up the game that way

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where you're like, I'm assuming these are the five things that I think will happen and will go

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right, but I'm assuming none of them are going to go right, do I still win? And if you can still win,

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then that is an opportunity to worth pursuing in my opinion. And so that's some, that has been the

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approach that I have taken, which is how can I virtually eliminate the execution risk, a limited

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idea risk by only going after things that people already know want, and then how can I stack the

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chips in my favor like the rock, where if I want to write a book, I want to make sure it's a best

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seller no matter what, right? How do I do that? And then think about all the things that can go wrong,

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assume they go wrong, and then think what would I do in order to still succeed even with all these

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things going wrong? And then I think when you take those actions, you may not hit the 1000X return,

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but let's paint a different game that you could play. So let's say you could play this, there's

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two games. One was the one that Jeff Bezos outlined, right? Which you got, you know, one at a

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10 shot at getting 100 times payoff. The game that I prefer to play is how can I get a 3X payoff

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with a 95% chance of certainty? And I still have the same 35, right? Minimum bet. Well, I'll bet 5

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and get my 3, and then I'll bet my 15, and I'll be at 45, and then I'll bet my 45, and I'll be at

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up. There we go. I'm already at 120, or whatever. So I already got my 100 times payoff by thinking

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about it from a risk adjusted basis. Now it's not going to be sexy. It's not. But if you double or

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triple or 5X things enough times, you get to the 100X very quickly, and you can do it with limited

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downside, knowing that you've controlled for the idea risk and have only focused on the execution

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risk, which is yourself. And so that's how I've thought about risk with opportunity that I thought

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I would share with you because it was a really cool conversation. And I hope that you guys, I hope

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it gave you some light in terms of at least how I think of things, and maybe some of those ideas

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could serve you. So, most of the nation love you guys. I don't deserve you, but I love you

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for being as awesome as you are. Leave questions in the comments for future vids that really help

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for me, and I'll see you in the next one. Bye!
