WEBVTT

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What is going on everyone? Hope you guys are having a thankful Thursday full of thoughtful things

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for your

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People that starts with TH anyways, I wanted to break this down because I just came off a full day yesterday of having our top

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10

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Prichie's labs sellers out to Austin, which was an awesome full day. We got to share best practices on the selling side

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And on the gym on our side, which was super super cool

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So tons and tons of nuggets that I will be dropping for our legacy group tomorrow

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Based on some of the findings there. But one of the conversations that came up

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During the full day was

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How to basically reverse engineer goals

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To a freakish amount of precision and so if you've been involved in our community at all a lot of

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What's up, Sam? A lot of people in my in my in my community and then who work at gym lunch would say and I'm I'm just saying what they tell me is that

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Alan's is back of napkin math is is very very accurate and so I make

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Decently far out predictions six months nine months away of how many people we're gonna have how much revenue to have what we're gonna need

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To sustain the growth that we want to hit

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And usually those things are very very accurate within a pretty small margin error

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And so what I want to share with you is is the process of doing this and of course this is gonna be really tactical and like really physically help your business

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So it'll be less

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This type of thing is the type of thing to be like oh man, it's gonna require a thought

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This isn't gonna be like mental masturbation where I can just like think and feel good

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This is actually like the real shit that builds your business. So

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um

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Sorry, this is gonna be one of real ones and I try and make some of the software pieces because I know everyone loves those but like I have

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More obligations to help you make more money. So any

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So I'm gonna give you the numbers that Monica before I came up with yesterday. She didn't come up with them

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This is what she approached and we broke them down for her

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Then I and I broke them down for someone else afterwards and I was like you know what I think it would be good to do a sample of this for everyone here

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so

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She was she was at a hundred

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EFT so she a hundred recurring members of her gym

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Um, and she had added 50 EFTs the month before so she she basically restarted her gym

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She had a huge emotional issue that happened some some big family issues that went on and so she basically closed your gym down

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Um, and started over and was still able to maintain her likes agreements because of how much she's cashed she stopped

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So anyways, she basically went from zero to a hundred and like two months

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That being said and she's a step she's a figure gem owner like she's she's a beast

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But she was like how how quickly um, and how should I set my goals for when we should hit what and how long it's gonna take

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Right, and so I want to break this down for you

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Because I did it for her in like six minutes and she was like always shit like and there's a lot of stuff to it

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But they're really really um straightforward. So she has a hundred EFTs all right, she has one hundred

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man seriously

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One hundred EFTs great. Okay, perfect you guys can see okay, so she's a hundred active members

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now

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We know that she wants to get to 300

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All right, so she's trying to get to 300 EFTs and when she started talking to me

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She said I don't think I can handle more than 200 and I was like well, let's do the math and so she could handle

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22 people per session

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okay

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and

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With 45-minute sessions she could do three hours in the afternoon three hours in the morning and have eight sessions a day

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so that would be

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176 people per day

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That she can service and that's with perfect attendance spread across

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But that's on one day Wednesday Friday if she's doing Tuesday Thursday Saturday then she gets another

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176 that should be an addition sign, all right, which means she total would be like 350 issue, right?

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So I said I think 300 is a very easy goal for you to hit because like your actual max is significantly higher

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So let's hit 300 as the goal, all right, so that's where the 300 came from

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So let's go back

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So now she has 300 which means she has a 200 delta between where she is currently and where she would like to be

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right

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So I was like let's set a goal for this that seems reasonable. Do you think gaming you just did 50 EFTs in a month

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I was like let's just say that we try and gain 20 net the next 10 months from where I

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Okay, so that means that she gained 20 net the next 10 months. She'll get to 300 before the end

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You should be there at like November. Okay, so

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20 per month

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But what is that actually? I freaking hate this market. Okay. What does that actually mean though, right?

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So everyone's like, okay cool 20 per month. I thought this was supposed to be a hard month

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Ah, it gets more complicated, but it'll get more accurate such a cut out

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We know she signs up plus 50 per month, right

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We also know that her attrition is 6%

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Which means that she loses 6% of her customers month over month, all right

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So the reason I'm going to say this is back of napkin is because it's not going to be perfect

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But it's going to be really really close to accurate and I'm going to show you why all right, so

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If she's got 6% attrition then I'm going to take like one of the last months that she has here

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Okay, so let's say when she's at 270 EFTs, all right

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So that's going to be one of the last months near the end and I'm going to take 6% of that number, okay 0.06

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And if you get if you want to know how to do math really fast in your head

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Just everything is 10s 5s at once. Okay, so if I know it need to know what 6% is I'm going to take 270 take 1%

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Which is moving it over which be 2.7 multiple i by 6, which means I'm going to have 12 plus

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4.2, which means it's going to be 16.2, okay

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That's what 6% if you're curious on like how to do this in gravity any of

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So 16.2 is what her attrition is going to be

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On that last month, right now

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If we also have to add that 20 EFTs of growth it means that what she actually needs to be signing up is 36 people per month

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Ah, it's a little more complicated now. So she has to sign up 60 36 EFTs per month

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Including her attrition now mind you in the beginning if she signs up 36 per month

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She's actually beginning at a faster rate, which means

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She might hit the same like maybe 8 months, right?

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And I like sitting my goals long and achieving them early

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So I recommend doing it this way now that being said it also gives her room to

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For like a return fuck up

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And have something break along the way, which is likely, right?

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So let's go back and let's reverse engineer the 36

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So if she has 36 EFTs right that she needs us. I don't monthly and we know so I'm going to start

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I'm going to start at the end so you guys can see everything hopefully you're following along at home

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Okay, so 36 EFTs is the back end right now. We're going to go backwards this way

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Now in order for her at 36 EFTs, we know that she converts 66% of people from her front end program into her continuity

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Okay, so if she's doing 36 sorry 66% then that's going to be roughly like 55 people. I can probably do the actual math

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Let's say 36 divided by 466

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54.5c

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Head math pretty good. Okay, so 55 people

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Are going to be if she's doing two if she's converting two thirds, which is fairly standard for most engineers community

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Now mind you the way that these stats become accurate is by using the stats that you have right now

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It's not by saying I should be converting 80% once I do xyz will be at bone forget about all that

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What are you doing now? And then when you use the stats you're actually doing now when you're messing stuff up

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And you make your predictions off of what you're doing right now. What is you be amazed how accurate there? Okay, so

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55 people have so this is EFT

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This is sign up so I'm gonna say front end sign ups

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Sign ups all right now. Uh-oh. We also know there's another drop off. She usually drops 10% of people between sign up and start

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Okay, so she's losing 10% of people

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That it means she's going to be signing up

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61 people all right 10% off of that is is 55 okay is actual sign ups

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All right now

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Net I'm gonna say net front end sign up here. All right. She loses 10%

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Between sign up and start cool now

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This is per month. Okay, so um I like to get to weekly so that this can become a little bit more tactical

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So let's divide this by four instead of 4.3 and I do that because I like to give myself a little bit of wiggle room

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So I can do it in four weeks rather than 4.3 weeks. I'm still hitting my goals. Okay, so it's gonna be 15 people per week

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That she uses sign up. Okay, this is getting a little more tactical

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But what does that mean? So right now we know that she converts

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Again, two thirds of people who walk in her door. She's a good salesman

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So she converts two out of three people who walk in her door into a challenge

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Okay, or a front end program of her choice whatever right which means 22 people are gonna need to actually sit down with her

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All right, so that's gonna be shows

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Now of the 22 people that sit down with her she has a 50% show rate which means she's gonna need 44 people

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scheduled

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In order to hit that 22 shows now

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Right now she does

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75% of her leads get scheduled, okay?

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So if we've got 75% of

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So 44 represents 75% which would be three quarters

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So divided by three is 15 plus 15 is 60. Okay, cool. It's actually 59. I'm just gonna say 64 minutes. All right

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60 people 60 leads. Okay, so now she's got 60 leads that she needs to get per week. All right now

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How much does it cost her per lead right now cost her about $12 per lead, all right?

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Which means she has to be willing to spend

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44 scheduled 22 shows 15 closes. Okay, cool. We're good

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Wait 15 times per week. I just want to make sure that I'm not messing y'all up

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15 times a week 22 show

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44 are scheduled from that the 60 leads. Okay, good now

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That means that she's spending

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$720 yeah, $720 per week

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Inats, okay now

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Do-do-do-do

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That means that per day she's spending $100 roughly. Let's just say 120 roughly per day

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Inats now

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Hey, if you're a return listener and you have not rated or reviewed the show

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I want you to know that you should feel absolutely terrible about yourself and everything else in the world

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I'm kidding

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But it would mean the absolute words to me if you guys would go ahead and do that

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You don't even have to pause to show you keep listening and you can just do it with your thumb right now

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It'll take you less than 60 seconds and like I said the only way that podcast grows through word of mouth

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And this is you joining hands with me and helping as many entrepreneurs as we possibly can because no one is coming to save us

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It's just us. All right, so please go do that now and let's get back to the show

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We also know that in order for her to hit 120 to get that she usually had like only one third of her ads or winners

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Okay, so she's spending $10 per day to get this from winners, right

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per asset

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Um, that means that she has 12 winning assets that are working which means she created 36 total assets

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To get her number all right 36 assets

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To get 12 winners, okay

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All right, so

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In order for her to hit her goal what she is going to do right is that if she's doing 15 signups per week

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And she signed it and she's selling people five days a week

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It means she needs three signups a day which means she needs to sit down with so divided by five

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About five people a day. All right, so she sits down with five people a day

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And it means that per day if she's getting

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60 leads per week. She's going to getting

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Something doesn't seem right here

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Sorry, see this is what happens when you do a lot

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um

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Something doesn't seem right here

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60 leads 22 signups something got lost because I know it's it would be more leads than this

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So

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60s children 40 now I guess this is right okay, so if she's got 60 60 leads a week right there coming in

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Then um, we know that she's going to be spending basically $3,000 per month

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In ads right what's 120 so be 20 times there said 3600 all right, so $3,600 a month in advertisements

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And that every week she's going to need to make 36 ads

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Knowing that two thirds of those ads are going to work

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Okay, and so if we have to break this down tactically for her

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She's going to every single week make 36 hats

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Which takes time this shit takes time right four hours probably maybe more four hours a week

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She's gonna be making advertisements all right from there

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That is going to generate her

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60 leads per week that she's going to be able to work

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She's going to get 44 of them scheduled of the 60 half of those people will show it's 22 of those half that show

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So close 15 per week of those

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15 per week that she's scheduling I just switched to monthly here

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Fusing but if we're doing it per week then she's probably going to lose 10% which is one and a half

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So she's gonna have 13 people who start a week of the 13 people that that actually start which is this number

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She's going to have uh

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Two thirds of them actually finish which means she's gonna be close to like nine people finishing

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And that's where you do the times four

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Converting and that's 36 EFT's which with attrition gets her to her bowl within 10 months

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So if right now you're like huh, I really want to hit X EFT goal

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You have to break it all the way down in terms of what you need to do to get there

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So

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That cut like and for you

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That's assuming and you have to assume the numbers you have okay, so she has a really good scheduling percentage

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She has a decent show percentage and she is a good sales percentage

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If you tweak some of these numbers like let's say she's only scheduling half

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Of these people then we're looking at like 90 leads and that's just if we went from 75% to 50% on her schedule rate

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If her show rate

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Because he did this with someone else was 30%

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Then all of a sudden this number let's just change two of the numbers to show you how different this can be all right

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So if she can schedule if she's scheduling 50% instead okay, she needs 90 leads

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If she then is only having a third show

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Then it means that we have to let's just say 25% from that say so that I don't come myself

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All right, that means that she needs 190 leads

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per week right

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Now very quickly that number just tripled by by tweaking two of the numbers

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And so you have to use the numbers that are real for your business all right right now

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Like what's actually happening?

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You know what you wish has happened like well once we hired this new appointment schedule once I get this new sales person

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We're like not off the one hot day that you once had and sales

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But you need to look at how many appointments that I actually meet last month and how many of them that I've actually closed

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Then how many of them actually started and then use those numbers and you'll be absolutely

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Flabbergasted and how accurate your predictions will be and so this is just

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Hey, you can how you came to forecast what you need to do on a daily basis she needs to have

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Five people show up which means she needs 10 appointments per day

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Done that's what she needs she's 10 appointments per day and that's how we know

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That she's going to hit this goal right that's how this works

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But if you want to forecast anything

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Take the numbers that you have take what's real

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And then see what the what the logical next step before that that needs to happen like you can even go even close to that so

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To get those leads

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I need x amount of clicks and my funnel is convert like my landing pages converting at x

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And so you can go all the way back you can go even further and do this. I just don't want to overcompete further

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But like that that is how you make predictions and so like when we make back with napkin math predictions based on like how many support reps

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We're going to need a x amount of revenue and how many applications you need to drive growth at this goal

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This is how we break it down. It's like we need this many applications if we have this many applications

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This many schedule this many are showing this is what we're closing

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This is what the average sales guy is closing per month

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Not what they should be closing both. They're actually closing and in order to hit this volume bull

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I need this many salespeople at current level right? I'm sure if we can improve things awesome

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Right, but the thing is is your improvements will happen but with scale other things will break and so that's why

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predicting based on current numbers becomes so accurate because the improvements that you make

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Are going to be to fix broken systems and the systems will always be broken because as you are growing things brick

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You always need to be constantly

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Fixing things because what works to retain a hundred clients is not what works to retain two hundred or three hundred or five hundred

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EFEs the systems that you create break and that is part of growth welcome to business

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So anyways, hope this was um bad before you guys

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Uh, you can drop a comment or tag someone if who's on your team if you want to be frequently good at predicting things

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Don't do best case do current case and give yourself a little bit of wiggle to mess up

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And then you'll be amazed and your staff will be amazed at how accurate your predictions are and fun math

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Math trick. So I told you that like uh, so fun fact for everyone here. I

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For the longest time and talk about limiting beliefs um, I for most of my life thought I was really better math

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Okay, that was the thing most people who were in our world would be like

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Alex is really good in that right? I do math all the time and um, and it was because one day

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I was like, why do I think that and I traced it back to like I had I was really good at and then I had this one

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pre-caught teacher who was horrible and I basically just didn't pay attention anything

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Use a horrible teacher or maybe I didn't take for responsibility the class because I was 15

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Like I wasn't I wasn't at that level of developing it but from that point on basically everything after algebra two

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I had no idea what was going on right

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So I thought I was better math

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But here's how you can do and like to be fair you really never need calculus and business for the most part right

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But if you want to know how to do like math really quickly in your head

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Which I love doing it like calculating tips and all that kind of all that kind of stuff is that everything's on tens

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Fives and once okay, hopefully I'm just adding bonus value for you guys okay

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So if I need to take let's say

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17% of 240 okay

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Then what I'm going to think of in my head is I've got 240 right

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All right, I've got 240. I'm going to think what's 10% of that?

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Boom that's 24 right you move the decimal and then what's half of that to get my five right is 12

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So 15% would be 36 right but I have two more percent that I have to take care. Well, what's 1%

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2.4 remove the decimal twice which means I have to add 4.8 to my 36 which means 40.8

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is 17%

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Right you can check your calculator. That's what it is all right

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Um, and so if you're like how did Alex take 16% of blah blah blah?

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It's like this is how you take the percentages you do your tens and then you get to your five and then you add your once

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And so you can do this from a multiplying standpoint you can do it from a divisive like from a from a getting percentage

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standpoint but like

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That's the hack. It's like what I have you know

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Yeah, whatever 320 and I want 16% right 320

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16% so I'm going to go 320 in my head 32 is 10%

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16% so I need half of that which is 16 right I'm going to add that to it 48 and then I got my 1% that I have to add on top of it

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which is 3.2

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Which will take me to

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51.2 right

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You guys can check it on your calculators. So if I'm doing 16%

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Oops percent of 320 that's how you do it. You can do it in your head and everyone's like oh my god

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You should be a man. It's not really. It's just 10s 5s once and so if you want to

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Do this for yourself and have a party checker just I think it's really useful because you can get really good

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Guestimates in your head and not constantly have to pull the calculator out which kind of slows your momentum down

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So anyways fun trick for you there, but that is how

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We make frequently accurate predictions and you should apply this to your business

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Just logically reverse engineer the goals that you have lots of love drop a comment double like heaven amazing day

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I'll get you soon